Reborn in 2012, building a new energy empire

The Yangtze River Delta Industry Seminar was held as scheduled in the conference hall of a high-end hotel in the provincial capital.

There were only three venues. Jiang Haoran was going to speak in a smaller sub-venue with only about two hundred seats, but the atmosphere was solemn.

The air is filled with a subtle aroma of coffee and a carefully blended room fragrance.

The attendees were all industry elites, dressed appropriately, with a composed demeanor, and conversing in hushed tones.

The industry figures on the left were mostly dressed in dark jackets or polo shirts, made of thick fabric, and appeared rather quiet and reserved, discussing technical parameters in hushed tones.

The investment elites on the right wore well-tailored suits, their shirt collars and cuffs impeccably pressed, and simple watches on their wrists. Their sharp gazes swept steadily across the room, as if silently assessing something, accompanied by polite smiles.

Jiang Haoran, the only student representative in the venue and the second to last speaker, waited quietly in the audience.

He was dressed in a slightly business-style light blue shirt and dark trousers, with an upright posture and a calm face, making him appear exceptionally young among the middle-aged attendees.

The previous speakers included university scholars, securities analysts, and partners from investment institutions. They mainly discussed macroeconomic trends, policy interpretations, or broad concepts of industry-finance integration.

The audience listened politely, occasionally taking notes, but the atmosphere wasn't particularly enthusiastic.

Finally, the host announced Jiang Haoran's name and the topic.

As he walked onto the stage and adjusted the microphone, he could feel the many gazes directed at him from below—curious, scrutinizing, and indifferent.

How can such a young student be expected to talk about the core technology roadmap of the photovoltaic industry?

Jiang Haoran took a deep breath and glanced at the audience.

He saw Professor Wu Weizhen's encouraging gaze in the front row, and he also saw some listeners in the back row who had been somewhat distracted but sat up straight again because of the questions.

He didn't waste any words and got straight to the point.

On the large screen behind them, a concise yet powerful PowerPoint presentation was displayed.

There are no fancy animations, only clear charts, data, and logical frameworks.

"Good afternoon, teachers and leaders. Today I would like to discuss a specific issue: In the current polycrystalline-dominated landscape of the photovoltaic industry, how do we determine the critical point for monocrystalline technology to replace it? And how should capital be allocated based on this judgment?"

The opening remarks were direct and clear. The whispers from the audience subsided.

"To judge whether a technology is a substitute, we cannot just look at the superiority or inferiority of technical parameters, nor can we be misled by short-term market share... The key is to compare the 'cost per kilowatt-hour' of the two technologies."

Jiang Haoran pointed out the key point: "The cost per kilowatt-hour is determined by multiple variables, including initial investment cost, system power generation efficiency, operation and maintenance cost, and financial cost."

He presented charts showing historical price trends for polycrystalline and monocrystalline modules, conversion efficiency improvement curves, and the cost structure of power plant systems.

"Currently, monocrystalline modules are priced at a premium of about 15%-20%, but their higher conversion efficiency allows them to generate about 5%-8% more electricity in the same area. This means that, at the system level, the initial investment cost disadvantage of monocrystalline modules is partially offset."

He then presented a dynamic model. "The key issue is that both component prices and efficiency are changing. We need to find a 'critical point'."

When the price of monocrystalline modules drops to a certain proportion of that of polycrystalline modules, or when their efficiency advantage expands to a certain extent, the "levelized cost of electricity" (LCOE) of monocrystalline systems will be lower than that of polycrystalline systems.

He presented cost reduction and efficiency improvement curves fitted based on historical data.

"Based on my model, this tipping point is very likely to be reached within the next 12-24 months."

"The driving factors include: the widespread adoption of monocrystalline ingot pulling technology (such as RCZ), the sharp drop in silicon wafer costs due to the large-scale application of more efficient cutting technologies, and the continuous and steady improvement in the efficiency of monocrystalline cells."

……

People in the audience began taking notes frequently. Several company representatives, wearing glasses and appearing to have a technical background, listened particularly attentively.

"So, what does this mean for capital?"

Jiang Haoran shifted his focus from analysis to looking to the future, saying, "This means that we cannot simply use today's static costs to deny the future of monocrystalline silicon."

"On the contrary, we need to proactively identify companies that have genuine technological accumulation and process breakthroughs in reducing the core costs of monocrystalline silicon (such as silicon material, crystal pulling, and wafer slicing). Betting on them is betting on the arrival of a turning point in the entire technology roadmap."

He paused, his gaze sharpening: "This is not just an investment in technology, but a forward-looking judgment on the endgame of the industry."

"At a time when the industry is generally pessimistic and polysilicon production capacity is severely oversupplied, this may be the best time to position yourself for future winners. Fear and herd mentality often lead to the undervaluation of truly promising assets."

……

Finally, he concluded: "The upgrading and transformation of industries is never linear. It often breeds turning points in despair and gives birth to kings outside of consensus."

"The value of capital lies not only in adding to existing success, but also in providing timely assistance, in seeing through short-term illusions, and in identifying and supporting those forces that can define the future."

Forty minutes, the timing was perfect.

After the speech, there was a brief silence in the hall. Then, applause broke out.

It wasn't a thunderous outburst, but rather a steady, powerful, and sustained response. Many attendees applauded while nodding slightly and whispering among themselves.

Jiang Haoran could clearly see that there were several distinguished middle-aged men in the back row, looking at him intently with eyes full of inquiry and appreciation.

During the Q&A session, several rather pointed questions were raised, covering technical details, cost calculation assumptions, and his specific views on several listed photovoltaic companies.

Jiang Haoran handled the situation calmly, readily citing data and demonstrating clear and rigorous logic. He neither evaded the questions nor overstepped his bounds by making specific investment recommendations, striking the perfect balance.

Professor Wu Weizhen, sitting in the audience, wore a gratified smile.

During the seminar's tea break, Jiang Haoran was surrounded by several attendees exchanging business cards or engaging in brief conversations. He responded politely and humbly, neither arrogant nor servile.

Just then, a thin man in his fifties, dressed in a simple dark jacket and wearing glasses, walked over slowly, accompanied by the dean of the business school and Professor Wu Weizhen.

The people around him instinctively made way for him, clearly showing them great respect.

"Jiang, your remarks just now were very insightful." The man spoke, his voice calm but his gaze steady and powerful, as if he could see through appearances. "Especially your points about 'tipping point' and 'the power to define the future' captured the essence of industrial investment."

The accompanying dean smiled and introduced, "Haoran, this is Mr. Wang Zhenwang, the founder of Keelung Corporation and the president of the Academia Sinica. Mr. Wang is a technical authority in the photovoltaic industry and is very interested in your analysis. He would like to have a brief exchange with you."

Keelung Corporation! Wang Zhenguo!