Reborn in 2012, building a new energy empire

Over the next few days, Jiang Haoran's life was like a precise clock, running regularly and efficiently on two parallel tracks.

On one hand, there's the upcoming seminar presentation, which requires repeated polishing of the speech and PPT; on the other hand, there's the operation of the futures market.

He ventured deep into the library, went online to check the latest industry journals, listed company quarterly reports, and even asked Lin Miaomiao for some unpublished industry conference minutes.

He verified every piece of key data, scrutinized every logical step, and anticipated every potential weakness that might be questioned.

Jiang Haoran's research on the photovoltaic industry has long exceeded the requirements of a single speech.

Because he clearly envisioned the development landscape for the next few years: with breakthroughs in key processes such as diamond wire cutting and PERC cells, monocrystalline technology would achieve a steep downward shift in the cost curve at a speed far exceeding current market expectations.

That historic turning point will arrive in 2014-2015, followed by an unstoppable wave of replacement.

He also "knew" which companies would stand out in this wave and eventually grow into industry giants with a market value of hundreds of billions, thanks to their almost obsessive belief in technology and their strong execution capabilities.

What he wanted to do was, at the darkest moment of the industry in 2012, a time when the technological roadmap was shrouded in mystery, to use the perspective and framework of a 19-year-old college student to unravel the complexities and reveal to those confused or hesitant industry and capital professionals the seemingly hidden but actually inherently inevitable path.

This requires not only forward-thinking insights, but also the transformation of those insights into rigorous analyses that align with current logic and withstand the scrutiny of current data.

He cannot assert that "this will inevitably happen in the future," but must eloquently demonstrate that "based on existing observable trends, the laws of technological development, and key variables, its evolution is highly likely to lead to this result."

This requires building an impeccable logical chain and laying a solid foundation for it with carefully selected authoritative data.

Jiang Haoran's speech was ultimately titled: "Identifying the 'Decisive Turning Point' in the Generational Switching of Photovoltaic Technology".

Two days before the seminar, he sent the final revised outline and PPT to Professor Wu Weizhen's office again.

Professor Wu put on his glasses and reviewed the document without saying a word for a full twenty minutes, during which he only picked up a red pen and made two minor changes to the wording.

Finally, he put down the manuscript, looked at Jiang Haoran who was waiting, and said only two words:

"That's fine."

There were no excessive praises, but those two simple words quietly dispelled the last trace of tension in Jiang Haoran's heart, replacing it with a calm confidence that came from thorough preparation and rigorous training.

These two words made Jiang Haoran's last bit of tension relax, replaced by a calm and confident feeling.

Stepping out of the professor's office, the evening breeze carried the slight warmth of early summer. Jiang Haoran looked up at the drifting clouds in the sky, his eyes bright.

Meanwhile, the soybean meal 1301 contract in the futures market has entered a more subtle and complex phase.

After struggling to break through the psychological barrier of 3500 points, the price failed to launch a smooth upward attack and instead fell into a tiring back-and-forth oscillation around the 3480 level.

Market volatility persists, but the pace has changed.

When it rises, it appears hesitant and weak, often stopping abruptly around 3520; when it falls, however, it is often decisive and sharp, repeatedly testing and even briefly breaking through the 3460 support level.

On the daily chart, the moving average system is highly converged, making the direction unclear; technical indicators oscillate back and forth near the zero axis or the median line, losing their clear directional significance.

The market seems to have entered a temporary "garbage time," where the forces of bulls and bears have reached a fragile balance, with both sides waiting for a fundamental or financial signal that can break the deadlock.

This kind of market is torture for trend followers and a trap for impatient short-term traders. But for Jiang Haoran, it is the perfect testing ground to put his "survival and profit-making rules in volatile markets" into practice.

His operations became more flexible, precise, and even imbued with an artistic rhythm. The total open interest remained around 800 lots, but these 800 lots were not static; rather, they moved like flowing water, fluctuating with every pulse of the market.

His "buy low, sell high" strategy is no longer limited to large intraday fluctuations.

Sometimes, he can capture two tiny price difference opportunities simply by the price fluctuating within the twenty-point range of 3525 and 3505.

This kind of operation is extremely demanding in terms of mindset, focus, and discipline.

However, Jiang Haoran's account curve drew a steady upward sloping line amidst the overall lackluster market.

Through dozens of such meticulous operations, he continuously accumulated seemingly small but considerable profit margins through compounding.

More importantly, after this round of high-intensity, high-frequency "cost management," the overall average holding cost of his 800 long positions has been firmly suppressed below 3250 yuan/ton, and the safety cushion between it and the current market price is so thick that it is reassuring.

During this "garbage time" in the market, his total account equity not only did not decline, but instead steadily climbed, quietly surpassing 280 million yuan.

Fatty Li had completely given up trying to understand it. He just stared blankly at Jiang Haoran's trading records, which were almost always profitable, and muttered to himself, "This is no longer a technique, this is the god of futures trading possessing me."

……

In the last few trading days of June, the price fluctuated narrowly within a lower range of 3440-3480, with trading volume continuing to shrink and the MACD running below the zero line. All signs indicate that the short-term correction is not yet over.

On Wednesday, prices fluctuated and declined again, briefly touching 3442 yuan/ton, very close to the lower end of the fluctuation range since June, around 3440 yuan/ton.

This position is not only the core area of ​​the first important consolidation platform after the rise in late May, but also a key psychological and technical support level that is widely recognized by the market.

Once the price breaks below this level, from a technical analysis perspective, the downside potential is likely to be unlocked, which could trigger a more intense sell-off.

On the chart, when the price approached 3440, there was a significant increase in trading volume, indicating fierce competition between buyers and sellers.

Selling appeared proactive and urgent, while buying was more of a passive defense based on key price levels. In market chat rooms, comments such as "3440 will definitely be broken" and "the trend has turned bearish" were rampant.

On the afternoon of the last trading day in June, when the price once again found support near 3442 and hesitated, while the selling momentum seemed to be weakening, he decided not to wait any longer.

The time has come.

He brought up his trading software; the ample margin and substantial unrealized profits in his account provided him with a strong foundation of confidence. His fingers, steady as a rock, typed out clear commands on the keyboard:

"Buy soybean meal 1301, 3443, 200 lots, open position."

The order was issued and the transaction was completed almost instantly within the price range of 3442-3443.

At this point, his total holdings jumped from 800 lots to a full 1000 lots!

The account margin requirement has increased significantly, but at this moment, his account equity, after the period of careful trading and profit-taking in the volatile market, is sufficient to cover the newly added 200 lots, and the risk level remains at a healthy level.

At 3 p.m., the closing bell rang.

The soybean meal 1301 contract finally closed at 3454 yuan/ton, with the daily chart showing a small positive candlestick indicating a potential halt to the decline, barely holding above the key support level of 3440.

Jiang Haoran quietly looked at the eye-catching "1000 lots" long position in the holdings list, and the account's total equity valuation that had been refreshed and had already exceeded 300 million yuan.

There was no elation in my heart, only a calm after the layout was completed, and a clear expectation for the potentially decisive fundamental report and potential trend in July.

On the last day of June, he calmly added to his position against short-term market sentiment, bringing a powerful end to his two-pronged strategy for the month.