Reborn in 2012, building a new energy empire

At nine o'clock sharp the next morning, Jiang Haoran knocked on the door of Professor Wu Weizhen's office.

"Please come in."

As you push open the door, the office is filled with the scent of books and the aroma of old wood.

Professor Wu sat behind a large solid wood desk, with bookshelves reaching the ceiling behind him. Economic classics and thick industry yearbooks were neatly arranged, and his reading glasses were placed on top of several open academic journals.

Morning light streamed through the blinds, casting interplay of light and shadow on the dark floor.

"Good morning, Professor Wu." Jiang Haoran placed a neatly printed manuscript on the table, then sat down in the chair opposite him, his back naturally straight.

Professor Wu nodded, put on his glasses, and picked up the outline for his speech entitled "Identification of the Tipping Point of Technological Substitution and Capital Betting: Taking the Debate on Monocrystalline and Polycrystalline Photovoltaic Technologies as an Example".

He read very slowly, his fingers occasionally pausing on a certain spot on the paper, his brows sometimes furrowing and sometimes relaxing.

The office was quiet, with only the rustling of pages turning and the faint sound of campus broadcasts coming from outside the window.

This topic directly addresses the core confusion and disputes in the photovoltaic industry in 2012.

At this time, the industry was in dire straits under the "anti-dumping and countervailing duties" from Europe and the United States, and the entire industry was mired in losses.

Mainstream polycrystalline silicon technology occupies an absolute market share due to its maturity and cost advantages, while monocrystalline technology, which has higher conversion efficiency, is generally regarded as an uneconomical "aristocratic technology" due to its high cost, and its market share is very small.

Who will ultimately own the future? The industry is debating this endlessly, while capital is hesitant and observing from the sidelines.

What Jiang Haoran wants to do is to use a clear analytical framework to dispel the fog that shrouds the industry and get straight to the most essential winning logic under the wave of technological substitution.

About half an hour later, Professor Wu put down his manuscript, took off his glasses, and looked at Jiang Haoran.

"The overall framework is clear, and the core concept of 'critical point' has been accurately grasped," Professor Wu said, his tone calm and composed, typical of academic discussions.

"Taking the most pressing debate in the industry today as an example, the entry point is specific and sharp enough. However, there are a few key points that need stronger support, or perhaps a more incisive way of phrasing."

He leaned forward slightly and pointed to the third page of the manuscript: "Here, you mentioned that the key to reducing the cost of monocrystalline silicon lies in the continuous improvement of the cutting process."

"The direction is correct, but the presentation could be more solid. The people sitting in the audience are likely entrepreneurs who make silicon wafers or equipment; they understand the specific bottlenecks and cost structure of technological iterations better than you do."

Professor Wu's gaze, peering through his glasses, was sharp and scrutinizing: "You can't just say in general terms that 'cutting technology will improve'."

You need to answer: Why is improving the cutting process so crucial at this point in time? What percentage of the cost structure of current mainstream technologies does the cutting process account for? What are the industry-recognized cost reduction paths, and what are the bases for them?

"More importantly, you need to provide convincing reasoning on how advancements in dicing technology will drive down silicon wafer costs in stages and quantitatively, based on existing technological development trajectories and industry experimental data."

Using data chains to prove that this technological substitution is not just a "possibility," but is already underway and will accelerate beyond expectations. This is the "practical information" that industry professionals want to hear.

Jiang Haoran paused for a moment, then quickly wrote: "Understood. Supplement the internal logic and technical path deduction of technological substitution."

You need to build your own analysis chain.” Professor Wu drew a downward curve on the whiteboard, “breaking down the ‘overall cost reduction target for the industry’ given by authoritative institutions into each link.”

"How will improvements in the cutting process affect silicon utilization, the number of wafers produced per unit, auxiliary material consumption, and even the yield of subsequent cell manufacturing? How will these improvements ultimately translate into a decrease in cost per watt? This transmission mechanism and quantitative relationship are where the value of your analysis lies."

Jiang Haoran suddenly understood: "I get it, Professor. We can't just state the conclusion; we need to demonstrate the complete derivation process, from industry consensus to the impact on specific stages, and finally to the changes in costs."

"Use authoritative data to anchor the starting point, use logic to construct a causal chain, and use reasonable assumptions to extrapolate the magnitude of future changes."

"That's right." Professor Wu nodded. "You need to make the audience feel that you're not making predictions out of thin air, but rather that you're conducting a more in-depth and focused deduction based on the industry framework and data they're familiar with."

They may know that cutting is important, but your value lies in clearly and quantitatively demonstrating "how important" this technology is and "why it's especially important right now." That's the kind of insight that people remember.

Jiang Haoran quickly marked the outline, his thoughts flowing like a spring.

He realized that such a statement was not only more rigorous, but also cleverly focused on the analytical methods and logical construction itself, which made it seem more universal and professional.

"And here," Professor Wu turned to page five, pointing to a passage about "critical point models," "you use the cost-per-kilowatt-hour model for polycrystalline and monocrystalline materials to extrapolate the inflection point time. The model parameters are key."

"The efficiency improvement data you cited is the industry average, but the speed of technology iteration between leading companies and ordinary companies is vastly different."

He raised his head, his gaze sharp: "You need to understand that the industry's 'average tipping point' and the 'leading company tipping point' are two different things. Those companies that have made early investments in monocrystalline technology and have accumulated deep expertise in the process will have a much steeper cost reduction curve than the industry average."

"This means that the timing for capital deployment is not to wait for the inflection point of the entire industry to become clear, but to identify and bet on those leaders who have already crossed or are about to cross their own 'tipping point'. By the time the entire industry understands, the value of those leaders has already been reassessed."

These words were like the sun breaking through the clouds.

Jiang Haoran's eyes lit up: "I understand, Professor. First, we extrapolate the overall industry trends based on publicly available data to establish a benchmark scenario; then we focus on how to identify leading companies and whether their R&D investment intensity, patent layout, and yield and cost data of key processes have shown an 'acceleration' that exceeds the industry average."

This approach demonstrates both macro-level judgment and provides actionable dimensions for capital screening.

"Yes, that's the line of thinking." Professor Wu's face showed a hint of approval. "Your analytical framework has an intuition that transcends experience, which is very rare."

"But to turn intuition into a convincing argument that those who have actually fought in the market have put in real combat need more solid data anchors and a more rigorous logical chain."

"They may not have the patience to listen to long-winded explanations, but they have an almost instinctive wariness of vague conclusions and weak logic."

For the next hour, Professor Wu meticulously examined and provided guidance on the structure and rhythm of the presentation, the clarity of the charts and graphs, the authority of the data sources, and even how to handle various pointed questions that might arise.

He would sometimes ask for details, sometimes simulate questioning, and sometimes personally draw logic diagrams on the whiteboard.

"One last thing," Professor Wu put down his pen and leaned back in his chair, "for the fifteen minutes on stage, you must be the expert on this issue. You need to have that confidence."

"But this confidence must be based on the fact that every piece of data and every derivation in your outline can withstand repeated scrutiny."

Remember, your goal isn't to convince everyone, but to make those who truly understand the field and have decision-making power feel that you, this young man, "have something special," and are worth exchanging business cards with and having a chat during the tea break.

"Thank you, Professor!" Jiang Haoran stood up and thanked him solemnly. The polishing he had done that morning was of immense value.

This is how he forged his advanced insights and visions for the future into a powerful tool that can exert influence in the real world of industry and capital.

Stepping out of the School of Economics and Management building, the sun was shining brightly.

Jiang Haoran took a deep breath of the slightly warm early summer air, feeling that the "blade" of his thoughts, after this careful tempering, was even sharper, yet also more calm and reserved.