Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

On the evening of the third day of the conference, the strategic discussions in Moscow reached a conclusion. The Soviet Foreign Ministry's analytical report was placed on Slava's table:

Slovenia has virtually no chance of winning; the price they would have to pay is too high.

It's also unlikely that Serbia will cooperate with them; as long as Milosevic is still around, it will be difficult for the Soviet Union to cooperate with them.

Milosevic was unwilling to let Serbia become a pawn of Moscow. His ambition was Greater Serbia—to incorporate the Serb-populated areas of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and unite Montenegro, Macedonia, and Kosovo to establish a regional hegemony centered on Belgrade, free from the control of any external power.

This goal directly conflicts with the Soviet Union's principle of opposing any unilateral changes to the border.

However, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina were more likely to be drawn into the Soviet sphere of influence.

Croatia needs security guarantees. Its armed forces are still hastily expanding; they cannot defeat the People's Army, much less the Serbian armed forces. The United States has no intention of intervening, and the European Community acts according to Moscow's wishes in this regard. Whoever can guarantee its borders, especially Krajina and Eastern Slavonia, holds Croatia's lifeline.

Therefore, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs believed that the Soviet Union could make a deal: the Soviet Union would guarantee Croatia's border integrity in exchange for Croatia's neutrality in military alliances, and then intervene in Croatia by winning over the People's Army, ultimately completing the economic and political restructuring of Croatia.

The most important person to watch in dealing with the Croatian issue is Tudjman. He is a former People's Army general, a nationalist historian, and the Croatian president; his political capital is entirely built on anti-Serbia and anti-communism.

The political cost of accepting Moscow's guarantee was extremely high. His only reason for accepting the Soviet Union was because the United States was indifferent and the European Community would only hold meetings—Croatia had no other choice in the autumn of 1991. This temporary alliance was inherently unstable and could turn against them at any time.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is also relatively easily affected. Bosnia and Herzegovina's economy is a product of the federation—Tito placed the military industry in the mountains of Bosnia and Herzegovina to protect against Soviet air raids, and these factories would not survive without the federal market.

Moreover, Bosnia and Herzegovina is home to three ethnic groups, and it is impossible for any one ethnic group to dominate alone. Therefore, an external guarantor is essential for its independence. Once it loses external deterrence, Bosnia and Herzegovina will immediately fall into civil war under the influence of Serbia.

历史上的波黑内战从1992年4月1日持续至1995年12月14日，历时3年零8个多月。这场战争因其极端的残酷性被广泛认为是第二次世界大战后欧洲最血腥的冲突。

The war resulted in approximately 17 deaths, 60 injuries, and over 200 million people displaced as refugees. Considering that Bosnia and Herzegovina's total population at the time was only about 450 million, this proportion is extremely staggering.

而且，波黑首都萨拉热窝遭受了现代战争史上持续时间最长的围城战，从1992年4月5日到1996年2月29日，长达1425天。

For nearly four years, the city’s residents lived under constant shelling and the threat of snipers. Due to the high level of ethnic and religious conflict in the Bosnian War, there was widespread ethnic cleansing against civilians of other ethnicities.

In July 1995, Bosnian Serb forces murdered approximately 8000 Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica. During the war, systematic rape was used as a tool of “ethnic cleansing,” with victims including children as young as six or seven.

Records show that after the war, some foreign tourists paid Bosnian Serb troops to enter Sarajevo and randomly shoot civilians for amusement, with the highest price paid for shooting children.

This is just a microcosm of the bloody civil war in Yugoslavia.

Slava believed that the Soviet Union desperately needed to intervene in Bosnia and Herzegovina, not only for humanitarian reasons but also for national interests. If the Soviet Union could bring Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina into its sphere of influence, Serbia would be completely surrounded by Soviet power.

To the north lies Hungary, to the east Romania and Bulgaria, to the west Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and to the south Macedonia.

Milosevic's Greater Serbia would become an isolated island surrounded by Soviet influence. At that point, the Soviet Union could force Serbia to submit.

But what methods should the Soviet Union use?

Military invasion? No, that's absolutely not an option. The Soviet Union had finally established close cooperation with the European Community, and such an invasion would give the United States a reason to strengthen NATO unity. At this time, military invasion would be the quickest but also the option with the greatest potential for future troubles.

Economic assimilation? That would be too slow, and Yugoslavia already owed more than $200 billion. The Soviet Union had been struggling to pay off its Eastern European allies' debts for years, and adding Yugoslavia would have affected the lives of its citizens.

Are we just supposed to stand by and watch the tragedy unfold?

No, at this very moment, there was another force in the Soviet Union of Yugoslavia with the strongest intervention capabilities and the greatest potential for cooperation with the Soviet Union—the Yugoslav People's Army.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

The Yugoslav People's Army was legally part of the Federal Presidium. However, since May 1991, when Milosevic blocked Mesić from taking over, this chain of command was nominally broken—the People's Army became an army without a legitimate commander.

All its subsequent actions were self-authorized: in the name of "defending the constitutional order of Yugoslavia," it was actually obeying the orders of Defense Minister Kadijevich and the General Staff.

Most importantly for the Soviet Union, ideologically speaking, the officers of the People's Army were the last institution in Yugoslavia that truly believed in "brotherly solidarity and unity."

It is Tito's legacy, the only national organization that recruits across ethnic groups, uses Serbian-Croatian as the unified language, and allows for widespread intermarriage among officers' children.

These people genuinely believed they were defending their country, not Serbia. This is important because it fully explains why the People's Army's actions were so hesitant and inconsistent in the early stages of the civil war, why its combat effectiveness was so low, and why there were so many deserters.

When Slovenia gained independence, its army consisted of only a few thousand "national defense forces" reorganized from the police, while the Yugoslav People's Army had airplanes, artillery, and tanks. They attacked Slovenia and failed to break through the hastily erected defenses in less than a month, even after ten days!

This either shows that the Yugoslav People's Army was utterly incompetent, or that many soldiers within the People's Army were unwilling to fight their own comrades.

In terms of ethnic composition, the People's Army's officer corps is significantly overstaffed with Serbs and Montenegrins (approximately 70% of officers at the rank of colonel and above), but its rank-and-file soldiers are recruited nationwide. During the Slovenian War in 1991, large numbers of Slovenes, Croats, and Albanians in the People's Army deserted or refused to fight.

The exodus intensified thereafter, and by 1992 it had effectively become a Serb army, but that was the result of the process, not the beginning.

In political terms, Serbian President Milosevic never formally commanded the Yugoslav People's Army. His relationship with Yugoslav Defense Minister Kadijevic in 1991 was one of mutual exploitation rather than superior-subordinate.

The military wanted to preserve the Federation of Yugoslavia and the legacy of its leader, while Milosevic wanted Serb-majority areas—these two goals overlapped for a period in the latter half of 1991 before they went their separate ways.

The real integration occurred in May 1992, when the People's Army disintegrated and reorganized into the Yugoslav Army and the Bosnian Serbian Army, and command fell into Milosevic's hands.

Therefore, at this time, the Yugoslav People's Army was an army that had lost its legitimate commander, was constantly disintegrating, and was being used by a politician it did not obey.

The Soviet Union could not directly control it because the historical contradictions buried by its predecessors still existed. Yugoslavia was expelled from the Cominform in 1948, and the entire military-building ideology of the People's Army (national defense, local territorial defense forces) was precisely designed to fight against a Soviet invasion.

This system was further strengthened after the Prague Spring in Czechoslovakia in 1968. Its officers had a much lower proportion of Soviet-trained personnel compared to Warsaw Pact countries, and its equipment was highly domestically produced. Historically, the Soviet Union had no economic leverage over Yugoslavia; Titoism defined itself by its "disobedience to Moscow."

As the old saying goes, "Let go of past differences and look forward to a bright future."

What the People's Army lacked most at that moment was the absence of a legitimate commander since 1991. If a Soviet-led international solution offered it a new source of authorization—for example, allowing it to act as a UN-authorized isolation force during the transition period—people like Kadievich would be attracted, because this would resolve their fundamental anxiety.

What it wants is to preserve its army and country, not a victory for Greater Serbia.

At this time, the conflict between the leaders of the People's Army, Kadijevich and Milosevic, was escalating. If the Soviet Union were to cut off Milosevic's control and give the military a way to be independent of Serbia, the military would accept the Soviet Union's offer.

On July 5, the Soviet delegation made a request at the Hague Conference—to invite General Kadijevich, the Minister of Defense of the Yugoslav People's Army, to The Hague to participate in the arbitration conference.

This request elicited differing reactions from various parties. The Croatian delegation was not pleased, viewing the People's Army as a tool of Serbia, and inviting the People's Army was tantamount to inviting Croatia's enemies.

The Serbian delegation was also not happy. Milosevic did not want Kadijevic to speak directly with Moscow because he was afraid that the military would not be on his side.

The European Community delegation had no objection, because at that time they still supported the unification of Yugoslavia, and it would be beneficial for them to have the People's Army maintain the unity.

So Kadijevic arrived.

...

Veliko Kadijevich, the Yugoslav People's Army Defense Minister, is currently sitting in a side hall of the Peace Palace in The Hague.

Sitting opposite him was Soviet Foreign Minister Nyenchen.

Kadijevic is 66 years old and is of Croatian and Serbian descent; his father is Serbian and his mother is Croatian.

He grew up in Tito's army, rising from a junior officer to Minister of Defense, and he believed in the "brotherly unity and solidarity" that Tito had taught them.

The Yugoslav People's Army was his life, his faith, and the cause he dedicated his life to.

At this moment, his life and faith are slowly collapsing.

The federation no longer exists; the Presidium has been usurped by the nationalist Milosevic, and the position of head of state is vacant. The Tito army under his command is disintegrating from within: Croat and Serbian officers are deserting en masse, conscripts are fleeing, and the mobilization response rate in Serbia itself is ridiculously low.

He had seen through Milosevic's ambitions: Milosevic wanted a Greater Serbia. Milosevic cooperated with him under the guise of suppressing separatist forces, but in reality, he was pursuing his own Serbian interests. He was using the People's Army to achieve his Greater Serbian ambitions, while Milosevic treated the People's Army as a tool to be used and discarded.

Kadijevic looked at the coach opposite him.

His inner thoughts were very complex. His entire military career—every course he took, every defense plan he helped design, every exercise he participated in—was prepared for fighting the Soviets.

The People's Army's nationwide defense system, ammunition depots and underground command posts throughout the country, territorial defense forces... all of this was designed to ensure that every Yugoslavian would become a resister on the day the Soviet Union invaded Yugoslavia.

And now—now he has to ask that imaginary enemy for help.

He had no other choice.

For him, at this moment, there was only one country in the world that truly wanted Yugoslavia to continue as a socialist federation: the Soviet Union.

Ironic, isn't it? Yes, the country he spent his entire life preparing to fight is now the only one willing to help him preserve the cause he has dedicated himself to.

Kadijevic looked at Coach Nian, and opened his mouth. He had a lot to say, but only one technical question came out:

"Spare parts. The People's Army urgently needs spare parts for Soviet-made equipment. If a long-term supply contract could be signed..."

He paused for a moment.

"Including fuel and ammunition."

He chose to hand over logistics to the Soviet Union to demonstrate the People's Army's willingness to cooperate.

Director Nian nodded: "We will arrange it. General Kadievich, I think there are other things we can discuss regarding the cause you have fought for..."

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

In August, the Hague conference continued, while the battlefield was advancing at a faster pace than the negotiations.

Milosevic's true intentions became clear. Outside the conference hall, Milosevic was making deals with the Soviet Union.

What he wants are the Serb-populated areas in Croatia. If the international community recognizes these two areas as belonging to Serbia, or at least recognizes their independence and their natural merger with Serbia, then he has won!

He had calculated this deal perfectly: trading two of the most difficult republics, Slovenia and Croatia, for recognition and international acceptance of Serb-majority areas.

He was willing to pay a heavy price for this, including but not limited to opening ports to the Soviet Union, engaging in economic and military cooperation, and he offered many tempting conditions, which Nian Dao treated as sugar-coated bullets and rejected.

The Soviet Union did not buy it.

The Soviet Union was well aware that if Milosevic were allowed to realize his ambitions, it would gain a new enemy in Greece. The Balkan powder keg already contained Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, and Albania! How could the centuries-old animosity accumulated in the Balkans be resolved by Milosevic's empty promise of friendship to the Soviet Union?

Therefore, the Soviet Union's position in The Hague was to oppose any unilateral changes to the borders, regardless of who did them. Croatia could be independent, but its borders could not be altered. Serbs within Croatia could have autonomy, but could not secede from the territory.

The Soviet Union was a multi-ethnic federal state! If Moscow supported territorial secession on the grounds of ethnicity in the Balkans, then every minority group within the Soviet Union—the Baltic states, the Caucasus, Central Asia—would have had a reason to secede.

You, Ivanov, supported the Serbs' right to self-determination and allowed them to become independent in Yugoslavia, so why can't we have the same rights?

Everything the Soviet Union did on the Balkan national question was a boomerang.

Ultimately, the first Yugoslav arbitration conference ended on August 8, and Slovenia gained full independence. Economically, it was dually dependent on the European Community and the Soviet Union, while politically it nominally remained neutral.

Croatia partially gained independence, and the People's Army immediately ceased hostilities, but was still allowed to travel within Croatian territory. Croatia's borders were jointly guaranteed by the Soviet Union and Europe and maintained military neutrality. Arrangements for the Republika Srpska region within the territory were to be arbitrated by Moscow.

The remaining fragments of Yugoslavia—Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Kosovo—remain unchanged for the time being, with their constitutions jointly guaranteed by the Soviet Union and Europe.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

Milosevic was naturally unwilling to see this outcome. After breaking with Kadijevic, he tore off the smile of cooperation and directly called on the Serbian troops in the People's Army to join the Serbian National Defense Force.

In late August, the People's Army split, and some troops withdrew from Croatia to Serbia.

This scene further solidified Kadijevich's determination to maintain federal unity. At the same time, the Soviet Union granted the People's Army a new source of authorization: to act as a quarantine and equipment custody force during the transitional period of Yugoslavia's reorganization, within the framework of the United Nations.

According to the UN resolution, the new People's Army will divide its assets according to the republics: most of the heavy equipment will not be left to the local republics. Serbia's relationship with the People's Army is already very bad, and Kadijevic is unwilling to hand over the People's Army's heavy equipment to Milosevic. Therefore, he chose to hand over the heavy equipment to an internationally supervised warehouse and Bosnia and Herzegovina, to be guarded by the peacekeeping forces.

The personnel of the New People's Army were voluntarily reassigned according to their ethnicity, and Croat and Slavic officers were allowed to take their personal files and pensions with them to join other republics.

At this time, the New People's Army had military passage rights to all republics of Yugoslavia except Slovenia, but its actual controlled area was compressed to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Under Soviet influence, only Slovenia has been recognized as independent in Yugoslavia to date; the other de facto independent countries have not been recognized.

This move by the Soviet Union gave Kadievich the best reason to stabilize the New People's Army internally.

In an internal memo, Kadijevich told officers of the People's Army:

"We did not side with the Soviet Union; we simply found the only force still willing to support federal unity. Without Soviet arbitration, the Yugoslav Federation would likely have completely dissolved by now! The New People's Army will carry on Marshal Tito's legacy and uphold federal unity!"

If Marshal Tito were alive, he might have made the same choice.

Whether Tito would make the same choice is unknown, but at least this statement had an effect within the military—most people accepted it.

The remaining roughly one-fifth of the New People's Army—mainly hardline Serbian officers and their soldiers—rejected the arrangement. In their view, Kadijevich's defection to the Soviet Union was tantamount to a betrayal of the interests of the Serbian nation.

They don't want any federation or international authorization; what they want is a Greater Serbia—to incorporate every inch of land inhabited by Serbs into a Serbian state!

These men left with their equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, and ammunition, heading towards the Serb-populated areas in eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina.

It was a land surrounded by mountains right next to the Serbian border, where Serbs and Bosniaks had lived together for hundreds of years.

Under Milosevic's influence, the heavy equipment quickly fell into the hands of Serb paramilitary groups in eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina. Meanwhile, on the other side of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosniaks and Croats were also taking advantage of the chaos of the reorganization of the new People's Army to arm themselves, buying weapons on the black market, acquiring equipment from deserters of the People's Army, and smuggling it in from Croatia.

On October 20, 1991, conflict broke out in eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serb military organizations in eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina declared an uprising, and Bosnian and Croat armed forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina began to purge the Serbs. The New People's Army began to quell the rebellion, and the Bosnian Civil War officially began.

On October 27, Serbia sent volunteer troops to intervene in the Bosnian civil war, which resulted in clashes with the New People's Army. The New People's Army troops in Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo, and Serbia were expelled.

At the same time, due to the reorganization of the New People's Army under the UN framework and the presence of many UN peacekeeping forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina, many "mistaken attacks" have occurred.

Serbia claimed that the attack was carried out by rebels within Bosnia and Herzegovina.

On October 29, Bosnia and Herzegovina declared war on Serbia.

On November 3, the Serb region in eastern Croatia announced its refusal to recognize the First Yugoslav Arbitration Resolution, declared independence, and joined Serbia. Croatia requested the New People's Army to "maintain federal unity."

On November 4, Croatia declared war on Serbia.

On November 5, Montenegro joined the Serbian War.

On November 7, the UN Security Council convened an emergency meeting, where the five permanent members—the Soviet Union, the United States, China, France, and the United Kingdom—jointly discussed the scale of the deployment of UN volunteer peacekeeping forces.

Chapter 121 If the United Nations won't come with me, I'll go find the Warsaw Pact.

The United Nations Security Council meeting in New York on November 7, 1991.

The leader stood before the Security Council's famous horseshoe-shaped table, facing the reporters and representatives from various countries, holding a stack of photographs in his hand.

The photo was taken by satellite. The resolution wasn't high, but it was enough for everyone present to see what was in the photo: ditches filled with corpses, and the humanitarian tragedy of rivers of blood was clearly visible even from the satellite's height.