Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

Serbs are a minority in Kosovo, with over 90% of the population being Albanians from the neighboring region. The local Serbs are often bullied, and Milosevic won the trust of the Serbian people by speaking up for them.

Milosevic was not Tito; he lacked the ability and will to fulfill Tito's will. He was essentially a Serbian nationalist—well, you could call him a national communist—who cared more about establishing a new federation centered on Serbia than about saving Tito's ideals.

Thus, from the beginning of his rule, Milosevic began to systematically dismantle the institutional framework left by Tito.

Tito's legacy thus gradually disappeared from the world.

He abolished the autonomy of Kosovo and Vojvodina, two autonomous provinces that each had one vote in the Federal Presidium. Abolishing their autonomy was tantamount to controlling their two votes.

With the addition of the two votes from Serbia and Montenegro, Milosevic now holds four of the eight votes in the Presidium.

The balance has been broken.

In January 1990, the League of Communists of Yugoslavia held its 1th Congress. The Slovenian delegation presented a proposal for democratic reforms, which was rejected by the Serbian bloc. The Slovenian delegation walked out, and the ruling party began to disintegrate.

Milosevic's actions tore away the fig leaf of Yugoslavia as a socialist federation, and ethnic separatist forces in all the constituent republics began to act—Serbia did it first! Why can't we take the lead too?

Thus, multi-party elections were held in various republics. Nationalist parties won in almost all of them—Tudjman in Croatia, Izetbegovic in Bosnia and Herzegovina... These people came to power using the same card:

For the sake of our national interests!

Slava was not capable of restoring the integrity of the already effectively fractured alliance, but he could choose a more favorable option for the Soviet Union—influencing Serbia.

At least Serbia could still lead Yugoslavia as the main body of the new union, and at least the ruling party was still the Communist Party, so they could still turn back.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

On May 7, Slava sent a signal to Milosevic.

Slava conveyed his stance through the Soviet ambassador to Belgrade:

"Moscow supports the unity of the Yugoslav Federation, while also understanding Serbia's concerns about the disintegration of the federation."

But Moscow hopes Milosevic will guarantee national unity and prevent any violent incidents of inter-ethnic violence.

Milosevic's response came back a few days later. It was polite but empty; he thanked Moscow for its concern, stated Serbia's commitment to a peaceful resolution of internal divisions within the federation, and offered some platitudes about dialogue and negotiation.

And that was it!

After reading the response, Director Nian placed the document on Slava's desk.

“That bastard doesn’t buy it! He thinks that as long as he gets rid of Slovenia—and maybe Croatia at most—he can form a ‘Greater Serbian Federation’ and keep playing around! Who does he think he is?” she said.

“That’s the limitation of people like Milosevic. They always think that national independence will solve the contradictions, but the world is material. What good is independence if the economic foundation doesn’t change? Once the people realize they are still suffering, their next step is to turn their anger towards the ruling party.” Slava sighed.

"At this point, there are two choices: either step down in disgrace and leave behind a mess for future generations to remember, or—" Director Nian stared at Yugoslavia on the world map.

“If we direct the conflict outwards, then it will become a civil war,” Slava replied.

Now, Milosevic was unwilling to let Yugoslavia align with the Soviet Union. In his calculations, Moscow's "support for unification" sounded like a good thing, but once the Soviet Union intervened in Balkan affairs, Serbia would become a pawn of Moscow—just like Iraq.

What he wants is a Balkan structure dominated by Serbia and not controlled by any external power.

People can't learn by being taught, but they can learn by doing. Sometimes we need the experience of other countries to tell our own people that those "unthinkable bright paths" in Western propaganda will only lead the country into hell.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

5 month 15 day.

This day should have been the date of the change of presidency in Yugoslavia's political calendar. According to the rotation order, the next chairman of the presidency should be Stepan Mesić, a Croatian.

However, Milosevic's Serbian group blocked the handover, using the four votes he controlled to veto Mesic's appointment.

Thus, the position of head of state of the federation became vacant, and the Yugoslav Federation came to an end.

On May 19, Croatia held an independence referendum. The results showed that 5 percent of the participants supported independence.

The numbers were not surprising – the vast majority of voters were Croatians, but almost all Serbs in Croatia boycotted the referendum.

But will it make a difference? Serbs are a minority, and even if they make up more than 90% of the population in eastern Croatia, it doesn't matter. The referendum result has already demonstrated the will of the Croatian people under international law, and Croatian independence is only a matter of time.

This is the tyranny of democracy.

On June 2, Slovenia held an independence referendum, and on June 25, Slovenia and Croatia simultaneously declared independence.

The country, which Tito had painstakingly maintained for decades and which consisted of six republics pieced together, began to disintegrate.

Slava faced three options: First, not to intervene and let the Yugoslavs resolve their own problems. But he knew what humanitarian tragedy this would cause. The collapse of Yugoslavia would not stop at Slovenia and Croatia as Milosevic had envisioned, but would result in one country falling after another, brothers fighting each other, wars breaking out between nations, and ethnic conflicts causing one bloody massacre after another.

Second, support Belgrade. The Soviet Union firmly stood with Milosevic in supporting Serbia in maintaining federal unity—even if this unity was actually Serbia's strong suppression of other republics, and ethnic conflicts would not be fundamentally resolved.

Milosevic showed no mercy to ethnic groups other than Serbs. Historically, Kosovo's desire for independence from Serbia turned into the bloody Kosovo War, and NATO's intervention became the final straw that broke the camel's back.

Third, act as a mediator. Bring all parties to the negotiating table and try to find a solution acceptable to everyone.

Slava decided to choose the third option first.

It wasn't because he was naive enough to think mediation could solve everything. It was because the other two paths for the Soviet Union at that time were far more costly—if they didn't intervene, the Balkans would become a sea of ​​fire, and a refugee crisis would impact the whole of Europe, including the Soviet Union's allies; supporting Belgrade meant supporting a regime that was currently engaging in ethnic oppression, and what would the Soviet Union do when Milosevic carried out a massive purge of other ethnic groups in the new Yugoslavia?

He lacks the time to coordinate and help ease ethnic tensions; mediation could at least buy time.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

The day after Slovenia declared independence, tanks from the Yugoslav People's Army rolled out of their camps.

The People's Army is attempting to control Slovenia's border crossings and airports—in theory, these facilities belong to the federation and Slovenia has no right to unilaterally take over.

But the Slovenes were prepared. Their territorial defense forces were a well-trained militia equipped with anti-tank missiles and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, and they had set up roadblocks on the roads leading to the border crossings.

The firefight has begun.

This conflict, known as the "Ten-Day War" in another timeline, lasted only three days here—because pressure from the Soviet Union, the European Community, and the United States forced the People's Army to withdraw from Slovenia ahead of schedule.

That's right, both the United States and the European Community sided with the Soviet Union!

In the original timeline, the United States initially supported maintaining the unity of Yugoslavia, with Secretary of State Baker even visiting Belgrade in June 1991 to dissuade independence. However, due to domestic political pressure, Germany took the lead in recognizing Slovenia and Croatia in December 1991, and the European Community was forced to follow suit. The collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 caused the United States to quickly reverse its attitude and support the civil war.

The United States supported unification in part because the Bush administration's full attention was focused on the Soviet Union and the Gulf War.

At the time, the Soviet Union was disintegrating, and the US policy prioritized stability—supporting Gorbachev in maintaining the integrity of the Soviet Union. This same logic inevitably extended to Yugoslavia. If the US promoted the independence of Slovenia in Yugoslavia, then the Baltic states, Ukraine, and Georgia could also benefit. However, the US was still negotiating arms control and disarmament with Moscow at the time, and it couldn't afford to let the most important issue—the collapse of the Soviet Union—be ruined over this.

Germany's support stems from the hundreds of thousands of Croatian and Slovenian migrant workers who form an organized lobbying group. The Catholic Church (Croatia and Slovenia are Catholic countries) and the Bavarian CSU are also actively involved.

Germany had just completed its reunification in October 1990, relying on the right to national self-determination. It was difficult to say that this principle did not apply to Slovenia and Croatia a year later. The German Foreign Minister stated this point very clearly, but Serbia, which opposed the disintegration of the alliance, pointed out the relationship between Germany and Croatia during World War II—the Ustaše regime was supported by the Nazis.

Germany's counter-interpretation is: "Precisely because of history, Germany can no longer stand idly by in the Balkans."

The Kohl government in Germany believed that recognizing independence would have a deterrent effect, turning the civil war into an international conflict and thus restraining the People's Army.

In hindsight, this assessment did not apply to Croatia, as civil war and massacres still ensued.

The reason why the European Community chose to follow Germany was more ingenious. The European Community had just finished negotiating the Maastricht Treaty on December 9 and was about to establish a common foreign and security policy. If the first real test resulted in member states acting unilaterally and others not following, then the treaty would be dead from birth.

Therefore, other countries chose to follow suit in order to maintain the appearance of a "common position".

But things are different on this timeline. The Berlin Wall hasn't fallen yet, and West Germany is far more dependent on Moscow than on Croatia and Slovenia. What good are those hundreds of thousands of lobbying groups? If Moscow were to turn on the gas valve, West Germany would be paralyzed. Time to become self-reliant!

The United States had just finished its war in Iraq and was concluding its operations. Having failed to dismantle Iraq and recover much of its losses, the US was still digesting the spoils from Japan and was unwilling to travel all the way to Europe to intervene in the next war.

This made the Soviet Union play a pivotal role in the negotiations for the independence of Yugoslavia.

Slava conveyed a clear message to Milosevic:

“There is no point in continuing to fight in Slovenia. There are almost no Serbs in Slovenia, and the People’s Army has no strategic motivation to fight there! You are not fighting to protect the Serbs, you are fighting to maintain a dead federal framework, which is not worth it.”

This statement completely relieved Milosevic of the mental burden of protecting Tito's legacy, and he immediately announced the withdrawal of troops.

Meanwhile, France and Britain are also putting pressure on the European Community: "We cannot allow the Balkans to turn into a large-scale European war."

And so, Slovenia successfully gained independence.

But this was just the beginning. Croatia is not Slovenia; there are hundreds of thousands of Serbs within Croatia—concentrated in the Krajna region. These Serbs do not recognize Zagreb's authority; they have declared their own "Serbian Krajna Republic" and are preparing to take armed action against the Croatian government.

And Serbia is backing them up.

Slovenia left cleanly because there was no Serb issue, and Milosevic was happy to let it go.

But Croatia's departure will require stepping over the bodies of Serbs—that's true war! Where will the new borders be drawn? Who will own the Serb villages? Who will decide on the mixed-race cities?

There's no time to draw these problems in the meeting room right now.

They will eventually be painted with blood.

On July 3, on the eve of the outbreak of war, the Soviet Union made a final effort, joining forces with the European Community to extend an invitation to hold an international conference on the future of Yugoslavia.

The invitation was sent to representatives of all six republics of Yugoslavia. Slovenia was already de facto independent, but was willing to negotiate because it needed international recognition—at that time, neither the US nor the Soviet Union, nor other European countries, recognized its independence.

Croatia is fighting against Serb militants, but it is also willing to talk because it needs external support.

Milosevic was reluctant to come to Serbia because the offensive on the front was going well, but he couldn't disregard the face of the Soviet Union as a superpower.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Montenegro, the three republics that have not yet declared independence, each have their own agendas and plans.

The purpose of the meeting was to find a peace plan before the war escalated. Koslava knew perfectly well that once the avalanche began, all the mediators could do was tell those standing in its path:

Run! Get out of here before the avalanche engulfs everyone!

He didn't know if he could negotiate enough time to ease tensions and prevent a civil war, but he chose to do his best.

Outside the window, the July sunlight in Moscow is very bright.

Thousands of kilometers away on the Balkan Peninsula, places that were once so beautiful they were heartbreaking are being swallowed up by gunfire.

Flames are rising in the Balkan powder keg.

Please update tonight due to health reasons.

As the title suggests, the Politburo's highest resolution states that Comrade Beizhai requested an update tonight due to health reasons (actually, he went to the grasslands for a barbecue).

Chapter 120 The Balkan Powder Keg Explodes

The Hague, July 3, 1991

The Yugoslav Arbitration Conference, jointly organized by the Soviet Union and the European Community, opened at the Peace Palace in The Hague.

The Peace Palace, funded by Andrew Carnegie in 1913, is the seat of the International Court of Justice. Its architectural style perfectly embodies the solemn imagination of 19th-century Europeans regarding "perpetual peace": marble corridors, soaring domes, and stained-glass windows depicting the goddess of justice and doves of peace.

But for the people who entered this building on July 3, 1991, representing six republics that were tearing each other apart, they probably had little in common with the peace doves in those glass windows.

The first outcome of the arbitration conference came quickly.

There is little disagreement about Slovenia's independence.

For the Soviet Union, Slovenia's secession from Yugoslavia posed no burden. Its economy was among the most advanced, roughly on par with Austria to the north. At this time, its politics had fully transitioned to a Western-style multi-party democracy, and its economic system was practically indistinguishable from a capitalist market economy. The Slovenian Communist Party had fallen from power, and in 89, under the Communist Party's failed reforms, hyperinflation reached a staggering 2700%!

Moreover, Slovenia was in the midst of a wave of nationalism and separatist sentiment at this time, and the Chinese people's opposition to the Communist Party was extremely high. At this point, there were really not many ways to retain it except through military invasion of the Soviet Union.

对欧共体来说，斯洛文尼亚是南斯拉夫尸块中最好吃的部分。斯洛文尼亚的债务最低，债务对经济体量的比例更健康。它虽然只占南斯拉夫人口的8%,却贡献了1990年20%的GDP和29%的出口,外贸规模相当于本国GDP的95%,这意味着它有远高于其他共和国的硬通货创汇能力去覆盖债务！

This is a key reason why the European Community believes Slovenia is suitable for independence.

Therefore, the Soviet Union and the European Community confirmed in a joint statement that Slovenia's independence had officially come into effect. The Soviet Union and the European Community jointly guaranteed Slovenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The Yugoslav People's Army would complete its withdrawal from Slovenia within a limited time—in fact, they had not succeeded in penetrating since Slovenia declared independence, and just days after the start of the war, Milosevic ordered the People's Army commander—Yugoslav Defense Minister Kadijevic—to abandon the offensive against Slovenia.

The Slovenian delegation members looked extremely happy as they signed the document.

They knew they were lucky: Slovenia had almost no Serb population, no territorial disputes, and no powder keg of mixed communities.

It left the cleanest.

But for neighboring Croatia, it's a completely different story.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

The Croatian issue began to devolve into disputes the moment negotiations commenced. The core points of contention were two areas—Krajna and Eastern Slavonia.

Krajna is a Serb-majority area within Croatia, a winding strip of land along the Croatian-Bosnian border. Hundreds of thousands of Serbs live there, constituting the majority of the local population. In 1990, they refused to recognize Zagreb's authority and formed their own "Republic of Krajna, Serbia," engaging in armed conflict with the Croatian government.

East Slavonia is on the other side, in eastern Croatia, bordering the Danube Plain of Serbia, where there is also a large Serbian population.

Croatia must answer one crucial question before it can achieve independence: what will happen to these two Serb-populated areas?

For Serbian President Milosevic, a Serbian nationalist, these two settlements are essential for Serbia to capture. Even now, during negotiations, these settlements are still fighting the Croatian army with Serbian support.

Croatia's position is clear: Croatia's borders are stipulated in the federal constitution and cannot be changed. Krajina and Eastern Slavonia are an integral part of Croatia; Serbs can enjoy minority rights, but the territory must belong to Croatia!

Serbia's position is based on the Serbs' right to self-determination: if Croats can secede from Yugoslavia, then Serbs within Croatia can also secede from Croatia!

It is infinitely independent and divisible.

Both positions have their own merits, and neither is acceptable to the other. Without external interference, the escalation of the Yugoslav civil war would have begun in Croatia.

This is an unsolvable equation unless someone reaches in from the outside and forcibly restrains the two people tearing at each other.

The Soviet Union wanted to be that hand.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.