Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

These economic disputes are further supported by historical and territorial narratives.

Iraq has long claimed that Kuwait was part of the Ottoman Empire's Basra province, and that it was originally part of Iraq, artificially carved out by British colonialists. This narrative provided ideological justification for Iraq's invasion.

Moreover, the United States' attitude is more neutral. After Gephart came to power, the United States focused a lot of energy on the Middle East, hoping to maintain stability and unity in the region and not wanting to provoke conflicts between countries.

On July 25, when U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Grasspi met with Saddam Hussein, he said something to the effect that "the United States does not take a position on border disputes between Arab countries." Saddam probably interpreted this as the United States not intervening.

Furthermore, with the Soviet Union supporting Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, Saddam Hussein felt he had a powerful backer. Since the Soviet Union needed Iraq to maintain its influence in the Middle East, he became bolder and decided to outwardly comply with Soviet mediation while secretly defying it.

Saddam Hussein outwardly agreed to the Soviet mediation plan, but secretly accelerated military deployments before launching a sudden attack.

Thus, in the early hours of August 2nd, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein ordered his army to cross the Kuwaiti border. One hundred thousand troops swept through Kuwait, taking control of the entire country within hours. The Kuwaiti Emir fled, and Iraq subsequently declared Kuwait its nineteenth province.

Now the pressure is on the Soviet Union.

"Fuck...Middle East...oil...America..."

On another timeline, this event triggered the Gulf War. The United States assembled a multinational coalition, deploying hundreds of thousands of NATO troops to drive Iraq out of Kuwait.

That was the first show of force by the United States to demonstrate its unipolar hegemony to the world at the end of the Cold War.

"What's the US saying? Is it a diplomatic protest or have they already deployed troops—"

"Comrade General Secretary, the US representative has already submitted an intervention resolution to the UN Security Council and the General Assembly. The US attitude is very tough. Foreign Minister Ivanova is on her way to the UN headquarters."

She suggested that you ideally come up with a preliminary solution within five hours before your plane lands.

Slava pondered for a moment, then picked up the phone and decided to call in the KGB chairman, the Minister of Defense, and the Chief of the General Staff.

"Call Comrade Chebrikov, Comrade Sokolov, and Comrade Ogarkov to my office."

Leave slip (cat)

As the title says, I went to stay in a yurt on the grassland. The signal was so bad that I couldn't even browse Bilibili. I just squatted on the grass, staring at the cows, petting horses, riding sheep, and chewing on the unharvested wheat...

Update tomorrow, meow…

Chapter 113 The purpose of diplomacy is to ensure that the nation survives until the next era.

Half an hour later, KGB Chairman Chebrikov, Defense Minister Sokolov, and Chief of the General Staff Ogarkov arrived at the General Secretary's office.

Without exchanging pleasantries, Slava spread the telegram out on the table and said to the three men, “You’ve already seen the briefing on the way here, so I won’t say anything more. The main reason I’ve urgently summoned you here is to think about how to deal with the huge trouble Saddam has caused us.”

"Let me set the tone first: we must protect them. We only have a few core allies in the Middle East: Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. We cannot allow the United States to completely drive us out of the Middle East."

He rested his elbows on the desk, his fingers interlaced in front of his nose.

"But we can't always clean up the messes of our 'allies,' especially since Iraq is neither in the Warsaw Pact nor the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. Saddam thinks he's great because he defeated Iran, and he's getting cocky now! I'll be holding a Politburo meeting the day after tomorrow, but right now I need to hear the military's thoughts—if things come to the worst and we fail to stop the Americans from launching an armed landing and invading Iraq, do we have the confidence and ability to stop them?"

Sokolov stood up without hesitation, snapped to attention, and saluted Slava with his legs together.

"Comrade General Secretary! Please rest assured! The Soviet armed forces are always ready to respond to any military threat posed by US imperialism to the Soviet Union!"

If General Secretary, you require it, the Army can complete partial mobilization within one month, deploying over 100,000 main force troops and over 600 aircraft to regions such as Syria, Azerbaijan, and Yemen. We are ready to retaliate against any NATO aggression at any time!

Ogarkov followed closely behind, rising to salute Slava:

"Reporting to General Secretary! The Soviet army is fully capable of gaining military superiority over NATO in both ground and air combat. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty only required us to withdraw missiles from Europe; we did not agree to destroy any weapons. We simply put them into our stockpiles!"

We can now rapidly deploy the Oka tactical mobile missile system to Syria. Naval operations, the Kuznetsov aircraft carrier is already in service, and the Northern Fleet needs time to be redeployed to the Mediterranean. If NATO decides to launch a sudden large-scale naval landing, our Black Sea Fleet may be unable to effectively intercept it.

However, the alliance's nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea are on standby and can inflict effective damage on NATO forces.

"Good! Very energetic! Comrades, please sit down."

Slava slammed his hand on the table and said loudly, "The Soviet armed forces must remain on high alert at all times, and there must be sufficient contingency plans for such emergencies! Since the Soviet army still maintains sufficient deterrent power, I am relieved."

Chebrikov also saluted Slava and nodded.

He knew that Slava would definitely prefer to resolve the issue through diplomatic maneuvering, and that Slava was worried that the Americans would not be inclined to resolve it diplomatically, fearing that the hardliners and populists in the United States would act rashly, regardless of whether the United Nations would agree to the United States taking military action in the Middle East, and directly summon NATO allies to form a 70-strong army to ravage Iraq.

Previously, the Soviet Union was weak and had nothing to lose. If it really turned into a NATO invasion during the Elite Shooter 83 exercise, they could just blow up NATO directly!

Now that the Soviet Union is much stronger, various reforms are in full swing. Two months ago, after Japan's economic bubble burst, the Soviet Union could lie back and reap the benefits from Japan. But if it were to be dragged into the conflict by the Americans now, it would be troublesome.

With such a large and successful business, Slava is now starting to take care of his reputation!

Chebrikov had done his work with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs before he arrived, after all, the Soviet Union had just been slapped in the face in Middle Eastern diplomacy, and Saddam had treated the Soviet mediation as a piece of waste paper.

"General Secretary, we can do a lot of things at the diplomatic level, but we have been too passive in this crisis and must respond based on the actions of the Americans," he said.

After listening, Slava asked everyone, "Alright, let's talk about the situation first—what's your assessment of the situation in the United States?"

Chebrikov opened an intelligence briefing.

"The effects of the Great Depression in the United States have begun to ease in recent years. Since Gephardt came to power, the global strategy has gradually contracted—retreating from Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. But the Middle East is the only place where it has not retreated."

The Middle East is of paramount importance to the United States. Oil is the foundation of the dollar's hegemony, and America's allies—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, etc.—use dollars to settle oil transactions. In return, the United States maintains the petrodollar system by ensuring the security of these countries through its military presence.

This cycle is the core of what underpins the international status of the US dollar.

The Great Depression has already severely damaged the credibility of the dollar; if the Middle East is lost as well, the petrodollar will be completely finished.

He closed the briefing.

"Therefore, the United States will definitely intervene forcefully and make a big fuss. It must convince its allies that: 'Although I am exploiting, although I am experiencing economic crises, and although I am overthrowing state governments and invading other countries by force, I can still guarantee that the United States can protect its allies.'"

"Whether it can do it or not, the United States must convince its domestic population and other NATO allies that they are being protected."

Ogarkov added, "We are not the only ones who benefited from Japan's bubble burst; the US is already cashing in on its gains in Japan. Both sides reaped tangible benefits from the stock market crash in May. If the US were to squeeze its current economic situation, it could still undertake large-scale actions."

The United States will definitely intervene; the question is how the Soviet Union will respond.

“We face three problems,” Slava said.

"First, how to protect the Soviet Union's sphere of influence in the Middle East? If the United States takes advantage of this to establish a permanent military presence in the Gulf, the Soviet Union will face even greater difficulties in the Middle East. Once Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar... these countries completely entrust their security to the United States, the Soviet Union will only have Iraq left in the Gulf, and Syria is not in the Gulf."

Second, how do we resolve the trouble Saddam Hussein caused? His invasion of a sovereign state is untenable under international law, and the Soviet Union cannot endorse him at the United Nations! Otherwise, more and more disobedient so-called 'allies' will begin to harm our interests, and who knows, one day even the United States might use our name to export its ideology and stage a coup!

“Finally—” Slava said somewhat irritably, “it’s about how to deal with Saddam, this increasingly disobedient ally, after everything else was settled.”

Saddam Hussein had transformed from a regional ally that the Soviet Union could control into a self-serving troublemaker. Since winning the Iran-Iraq War, he had become increasingly arrogant and disobedient. The weapons and funds the Soviet Union had poured into Iraq over the decades had nurtured a beast that turned on its master.

Yes, Iraq did defeat Iran, a major power, but without the support of the US and the Soviet Union, and without the US Navy's forced passage through the Strait of Hormuz and bombardment of the Iranian coast, how could Iraq have won so easily?

Don't forget that just a few years into the Iran-Iraq War, Iraq went from being the aggressor to the defender, and was quickly overrun on its own soil.

This force does not belong to Saddam.

Chebrikov didn't elaborate on the topic: "We have people in the upper echelons of the Iraqi military who are readily available."

Now there are only two questions left.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

After nearly three hours of discussion, Slava made the decision.

In diplomacy, the Soviet Union would cooperate with the United Nations in condemning Iraq's invasion and agree to impose economic sanctions on Iraq.

Militarily, the Soviet Union had to respond in kind to any military action by the United States. If the United States deployed troops to Saudi Arabia or sent aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf, the Soviet Union would deploy its army to Syria and move its navy to the Mediterranean.

Syria was the Soviet Union's most important ally in the Middle East. The presence of troops in Syria was ostensibly a response to the US military buildup in the Gulf, but in reality, it was a message to the entire Middle East that the Soviet Union would not leave the region.

Slava also took Ogarkov's advice and deployed the Oka tactical missile system, which NATO had wanted the Soviet Union to withdraw from during the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty negotiations in previous years but had failed to do so, to Syria.

The Oka missile has a range of over 400 kilometers, which can cover the entire territory of Israel and Jordan from Syria.

With Oka in Syria, Israel dared not take advantage of the chaos in the Gulf crisis, and the United States also had to reassess its troop deployment in the Syrian direction.

Finally, there is the need to ease tensions with Iran.

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend,” Slava said. “I know the Iranians have a grudge against us—we supported Saddam Hussein in fighting them. But diplomacy between countries is based on national interests. Even if we don’t intend to give Iran any meat, we still have to send a signal that the Soviet Union is willing to make peace with Iran.”

Chebrikov added, "Iran has interests in the Persian Gulf. If the United States establishes a large-scale military presence in the Gulf, Iran will be just as uneasy as the United States. Our interests are aligned with Iran's on this point—neither of us wants the United States to dominate the Persian Gulf."

"Then let's agree on this for now."

...

A few days later, the Soviet Supreme Political Bureau held a meeting.

Slava put the previously agreed-upon plan on the table, and the leader who had just returned from the United Nations gave a report.

"Comrades, my assessment of what the United States will do next is as follows—"

She opened a document.

"The United States will definitely amass military power. Aircraft carriers will be deployed to the Persian Gulf, and ground troops will be stationed in Saudi Arabia. The Ghephat government needs to demonstrate domestically that the United States is still a world leader, and the Middle East is its most capable stage!"

While the Great Depression in the United States has eased, it lacks both the capacity and the will to wage a large-scale ground war. Gephardt's voters—Rust Belt workers, unemployed middle-class individuals… none of them want their children sent to die in the desert.

The "America First" principle applies to the Middle East as well. Therefore, the ideal outcome for the United States is to avoid war.

To be precise, they're not going to fight, but it looks like they are.

Slava said, "What the United States wanted was to force the Soviet Union to take action—to make the Soviet Union compel Iraq to withdraw its troops. Because Iraq was a Soviet ally, the Soviet Union had leverage over Iraq—weapon spare parts supply, economic relations, connections in the Iraqi military leadership... the Soviet Union could control it."

"But at the same time, the US wanted the Soviet Union to resolve this matter as slowly as possible," Nian Dao echoed. "Because the longer it dragged on, the more afraid Saudi Arabia became. The more afraid Saudi Arabia became, the more it relied on US military protection. The more troops the US deployed to Saudi Arabia and the longer they stayed, the more benefits it could extract from Saudi Arabia—military presence rights, cooperation on oil pricing, arms purchase orders, sovereign wealth fund investments in US Treasury bonds..."

Historically, Saudi Arabia was terrified the moment Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Iraqi armored forces were only a few hundred kilometers from Saudi Arabia's eastern oil fields. Regardless of whether the Soviet Union could bring Saddam back, that would take time, and Saudi Arabia couldn't afford to wait.

Therefore, negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia began on the very first day the US deployed troops to Saudi Arabia. In reality, Saudi Arabia paid the US approximately $360 billion, making it the largest payer in the entire war.

She closed the file.

"This is a two-tiered game. The US verbally urges us to resolve this quickly, but secretly it's not in a hurry. Every day we delay, the more benefits the US gains in the Gulf."

The United States wants more than just money; it also wants the legitimacy of a long-term military presence. In reality, after the Gulf War, the US military established a permanent base in Saudi Arabia and obtained the right to station troops in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar.

After securing Kuwait, the US can continue to exploit it. The Kuwaiti royal family, having fled to Saudi Arabia, will be easy prey. Once restored, Kuwait will be obligated to cooperate with US demands regarding OPEC quotas—increasing production when the US needs low oil prices and reducing production when the US needs high oil prices.

Moreover, Kuwait's sovereign wealth fund manages hundreds of billions of dollars in assets, and the United States could easily "suggest" that more of this money flow into U.S. Treasury bonds and U.S. companies.

For the small Gulf states, the Kuwait crisis proved one thing: small countries lack the ability to defend themselves. The United States could have taken advantage of this window of opportunity to sell a whole security architecture: I'll sell you weapons, I'll send advisors to help train your military, I'll dock my warships in your ports, and in exchange you'll settle oil transactions in dollars, your sovereign wealth fund will buy US bonds, and your infrastructure projects will be awarded to American companies.

The US took this opportunity to intervene heavily in the Middle East in order to collect protection money, and Saddam's invasion was its best salesman.

Even if the crisis was ultimately resolved through Soviet diplomatic mediation, the United States could still say: "The Soviet Union helped you out this time, but the Soviet Union's allies are themselves a source of threat. Are you really comfortable entrusting your security entirely to Moscow?"

Even if the Soviet Union forced Saddam to withdraw his troops and replaced him, and Iraq effectively became a Soviet vassal state, the United States would still benefit.

It could still maintain economic sanctions against Iraq. Even if Iraq withdrew its troops, the US could retain some sanctions in the UN Security Council—such as an arms embargo and a weapons of mass destruction inspection mechanism. These sanctions would deplete Iraq's national strength in the long term, continuously diminishing its value as a Soviet ally.

This is why Slava is so angry with Saddam: once this war starts, the United States will never lose; there will only be options of a small win, a medium win, a big win, or a complete rout!

The top Politburo members remained silent for a while after listening.

"So what is our strategy?" Ligachev asked.

“We should take this opportunity to expand our military presence and sphere of influence in the Middle East. As soon as the Americans start their exercises, we will have an excuse to strengthen our forces in Syria, Lebanon, and other countries. At that time, Israel will be worried. When the United States is willing to talk to us, we can force Saddam to withdraw his troops and then replace him.”

This tactic is called "besieging Wei to rescue Zhao".

Director Nian said, "These actions are too passive. We need to try to regain some initiative from this crisis. We should now go to the UN Security Council to lead the resolution condemning Iraq and imposing sanctions to force it to withdraw its troops. We should first take the initiative and occupy the moral high ground within the framework of international law. If the resolution is passed, the political cost for the Americans to intervene militarily will become very high."

The Politburo subsequently approved the proposals of Nyangdo and Slava.

PS: Historically, after Iraq invaded Kuwait, it also fired missiles at Israel, hoping to drag Israel and other Arab countries into the conflict. Back then, the US went to great lengths to prevent Israel from retaliating. Now, despite numerous peace negotiations regarding the US-Iran-Israel conflict, the US seems to have never successfully restrained Israel.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

United Nations General Assembly Hall, New York, July 21.

In 1949, the Soviet Union's leader stood on the United Nations podium.

UN Secretary-General Pérez de Cuéllar chaired the meeting. This elderly Peruvian had held this position for eight years, witnessing numerous crises—the Iran-Iraq War, Afghanistan, the Central American civil war… but Iraq's successful invasion of Kuwait still added a somber tone to his expression.

This is a case of a UN member state forcibly annexing another member state, a blatant violation of the UN Charter!

The leader's speech was brief. She proposed economic and military sanctions against Iraq on behalf of the Soviet Union and spearheaded the adoption of the proposal.

This greatly surprised the UN members, given that the international community knew Iraq was one of the Soviet Union's few allies in the Middle East. The fact that the Soviet Union publicly condemned and sanctioned its own ally sent a significant signal.

This shows that the Soviet Union did not unconditionally protect its own; it shows that in the face of international law, the Soviet Union was willing to stand on the side of the rules, even if it meant offending its own people!

Great! Excellent! The evil communist axis is finally going to embrace the civilized world!

After the Soviet delegation spoke, the American representative stood up and applauded for the Soviet leader, saying that he wanted to thank the Soviet Union for "its contributions to the peace and security of all mankind." The rest of the American allies followed suit and stood up to applaud the Soviet representative.

At this point, the inefficient political system in the United States had only just reached the stage of congressional debate, and the idea of ​​military intervention was still far from being realized. Therefore, the US representatives were celebrating too soon.

Director Nian, with a stiff face, pretended to be very sad and helpless, but for the sake of justice and freedom, the Soviet Union had to reluctantly accept this gratitude from the free world.

------

July 30, Capitol Hill, Washington.

The U.S. Congress is currently engaged in a heated debate over whether the president should be authorized to use force against Iraq.