Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

Afterwards, Deng Xixian made personnel arrangements, and he took a liking to one person—Jiang Huaimin.

Jiang Huaimin was previously the Party Secretary of Shanghai. Shanghai also experienced turmoil during this incident; a newspaper called the *World Economic Herald* published articles advocating for Western-style liberal democracy.

Jiang Huaimin's approach was to suspend publications and conduct rectification, but without arrests or bloodshed. He also maintained restraint in handling the protests, preventing further bloodshed, and under his leadership, the problem was peacefully resolved in Shanghai.

Deng Xixian saw this approach as just right. More importantly, Jiang Huaimin had a background as a technocrat!

Unlike Mao and Deng, leaders of the first generation who were revolutionaries, Jiang Huaimin, as a third-generation leader, had a leadership team largely composed of technocrats, such as his contemporaries Li Peng (hydropower), Zhu Rongji (electric machinery), and Wen Jiabao (geology). The Soviet Union was similar; its current General Secretary and Premier were all technocrats.

Jiang Huaimin served as Minister of Electronics Industry and had cooperated with the Soviet Union in the electronics industry as early as 1983. At a time when Sino-Soviet relations are warming and Soviet experience in information technology and the electronics industry is flowing into China, it is more appropriate for someone with Soviet ties and technical expertise to sit in the top position than a purely political leader.

In June, Jiang Huaimin replaced Zhao Ziyang as General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee. In September, he took over as Chairman of the Central Military Commission, the last post Deng Xixian relinquished. In 1993, he became President of the People's Republic of China, a position he held until he ushered China into the 21st century.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

The first thing Slava did after returning to Moscow was to go to the military and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

On the military side, he contacted Defense Minister Sokolov and Chief of the General Staff Ogarkov; on the Ministry of Internal Affairs side, he contacted the newly appointed Minister of Internal Affairs and several key figures in charge of urban security.

Slava closed the door and got straight to the point.

"Comrades, you have all seen what is happening in Beiping these days."

Everyone present knew what he was referring to.

"As for the root cause of this matter, that's a matter for civil servants to worry about, like economics and politics. Even if I told you, you wouldn't be able to solve it. I'm here to ask you something:"

If—and I mean if—a similar situation occurred within the Soviet Union, what specific measures would you take?

The room fell silent for a moment.

“Think it through before you answer me,” Slava said. “What I need isn’t a guarantee or a statement, but a concrete action plan.”

If one day tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of people take to the streets of Moscow to oppose the party, will your troops and your police be able to control them?

Is it possible to control the bleeding while minimizing it? What if it gets to the worst point—"

He paused for a moment.

"—If the worst-case scenario necessitates the use of harsh measures, will the military and the Ministry of the Interior be able to carry out the orders? Is there a problem with the loyalty of our violent machinery to the Party and the country?"

He had to ensure the loyalty of the military and police departments.

He must take precautions. The people have accepted his reforms over the past few years—their food supply is secure, their grain reserves are stable, and their lives are better than in previous years. The people's trust in the CPSU and in communist ideology is growing. But what if things go wrong?

He witnessed firsthand how a seemingly stable system could be ignited by a single spark within weeks.

What if a similar trigger were to appear in the Soviet Union one day? Nationalist sentiments in the constituent republics, restless intellectuals, or even a flawed reform policy... any one of these could become that spark!

He asked about specific contingency plans: If a large-scale mass incident occurs in Moscow, who will be the first responders? Which communication and command chain will be established? Who will be responsible for the key nodes? How will the implementation of orders be ensured?

He then asked an even more pointed question: If an order to clear the area were given—an order he hoped would never need to be given—would the officers and soldiers in the army refuse to comply?

Ordering an army to fire on its own people is never an easy command.

He spent more than a week dealing with this hurdle. He and KGB Chairman Chebrikov devised many contingency plans to prevent large-scale mass incidents, including community early warning, march reporting, the Ministry of Internal Affairs maintaining order, and de-radicalizing the movement.

At the end of 1989, the budget of the Soviet Ministry of Internal Affairs increased by 32%, with half allocated to improving the welfare of police officers and ensuring the loyalty of the state's violent apparatus, and the other half to establishing an early warning mechanism system.

Only after finishing this task did he return to his desk to implement the results of his trip to Beiping.

PS: The problems within the Soviet Union have never had a chance to be addressed. The current focus is on improving people's livelihoods and drawing the masses towards the establishment. Only after these things are done will an opportunity be found to deal with them. This really needs to be addressed. There are too many outrageous proposals put forward by intellectuals like Sakharov.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

Japan at the end of June

The Recruit case has reached its climax. It's been a full year since the Asahi Shimbun exposed the bribery case involving the deputy mayor of Kawasaki last June. In that year, name after name has been unearthed from that bribery list. Each revelation has triggered a political earthquake.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Takao Fujinami resigned, Minister of Labor Kunio Takaishi resigned, and Minister of Justice Kazuzo resigned; high-ranking officials fell one after another.

There are too many names on the list. The list of over 7000 people in the political and business world is enough for the CIA and KGB to work on for a long time. Prime Minister Takeshita Noboru is the most prominent name on the list.

Takeshita Noboru was considered a relatively moderate figure in Japanese politics. He was not a hawk; he was pragmatic in economic matters and steady in diplomacy.

He knew how dangerous the Japanese economic bubble was—he believed that interest rates had to be raised to put the brakes on this wildly inflating bubble. He also felt that Japan's current rearmament was too fast and too dangerous, and needed to be cooled down.

But it was precisely these judgments that made him someone no one liked.

Japanese conglomerates dislike him—because they have now realized that Japan's current conflict has become "being bullied by foreign powers because of a lack of sovereignty," rather than an internal struggle for economic development. Takeshita is a capitulationist, a traitor, a spy, and a national traitor! He deserves divine retribution!

The US doesn't like him either—you want to raise interest rates? If you raise rates, the yen will become stronger, Japanese exports will become more competitive, and Japanese products that squeeze the US market will become cheaper! And if you really burst the bubble, then the carefully laid plan by the US and the Soviet Union will be prematurely deflated. The US won't allow Japan to deflate its own bubble.

The noose that strangled Noboru Takeshita in the Recruit case was tightened around his neck at this very moment.

Takeshita Noboru received nearly 4 million yen in political donations from Recruit. This amount is not large among Japan's corrupt political and business elites, but it is enough for a prime minister.

On June 28, Prime Minister Takeshita Noboru announced his resignation, and was succeeded by Prime Minister Uno Sosuke.

Uno Sōsuke was a transitional figure. He had no political foundation and got to this position not because of his ability, but because of a compromise among all parties—no faction wanted to push their own people into this mess, so they let this person who would be the least troublesome take the lead for now.

Sure enough, Sosuke Uno was ousted after less than two months in office due to a private life scandal. He was then replaced by Toshiki Kaifu—yet another weak prime minister.

From Takeshita Noboru to Uno to Kaifu. In the most crucial years for the Japanese economy and the key years for the implementation of Plaza Accord II, Japan's prime ministers served an average term of less than three months, changing like a revolving door.

Then don't blame Japan for its future also starting to look like a revolving door.

No prime minister had enough political capital to overturn the verdict, and no one had the courage to stand up and say, "I will put the brakes on Japan's bubble economy."

Politicians are struggling to protect themselves, so no one can care about the big picture. The brakes on Japan, this car heading towards the cliff, have been removed, and the driver's seat has been filled by people who are neither capable nor courageous enough to apply the brakes.

Japan is charging headlong into hell, and no one can stop it.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

July in Paris

To commemorate the bicentennial of the French Revolution, President Mitterrand held a grand military parade summit—he combined the G7 summit with France's National Day celebrations, with flags flying under the Arc de Triomphe and rows of troops and floats marching down the Champs-Élysées.

This is Mitterrand's stage. At this moment, he is no longer a lame president from the era of co-governance; he is the embodiment of the pride of the French Republic!

The real news from this summit wasn't the military parade, but rather that the G7 had become the G8.

This marks the first time since the Iron Curtain of the Cold War fell that a NATO G7 summit has invited an adversary to participate.

At least for now, for all nations, there are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.

The Soviet Union was invited to participate in part of the G7 agenda as a “Global Reconstruction Partner.” Mitterrand was a strong advocate for this, and his relationship with Slava had been warming since his visit to Paris a year earlier.

Agricultural cooperation, technological exchanges, and diplomatic tacit understanding between France and the Soviet Union made Mitterrand "the one closest to Moscow" among European heads of state. Bringing the Soviet Union into the G7 was a way for Mitterrand to gain points for himself and France on this significant bicentennial occasion.

This summit resulted in two things.

The first thing – the monetary coordination and consultation mechanism was formally institutionalized.

It sounds dry, but in layman's terms it means this: the previous scheme by the US and the USSR to manipulate the yen exchange rate was not honorable. Whenever Japan hardened its stance at the negotiating table, the White House would call the Kremlin, and the Soviet Union would launch a surprise attack on yen buying. This was, after all, somewhat underhanded.

This behavior now needs to be brought into the open, and the United States believes it can be upgraded from a secret memorandum to a formal and public international institution.

It was packaged as policy coordination between central banks. In essence, it was just another pair of handcuffs added to the Bank of Japan's hands.

Now that the Bank of Japan wants to raise interest rates and put the brakes on its bubble, it needs to "coordinate" first.

As for the outcome of the "coordination"? No need to elaborate.

The second point is that the Soviet Union obtained the endorsement of the G7 regarding capital access to Japan.

The Soviet Union's Foreign Economic Bank had previously been granted permission to open a branch in Tokyo, and the Soviet Union was allowed to issue samurai bonds in Japan—bonds denominated in yen. Now, the G7 countries also want a piece of the pie, with France, Britain, and West Germany all wanting to extend their reach into Japan's financial market.

But what about Japan? Who will save Japan?

The Japanese delegation is also in Paris. They came here with a last hope that the other G7 members could speak up for Japan and give them some breathing room on the exchange rate issue.

Their hopes were dashed.

The United States did not help them; the United States was the one who put the noose around their necks. How could the United States possibly help them?

Europe did not help them. Europe, especially France and West Germany, was moving closer to the Soviet Union, which was the relationship they needed to cultivate most at the moment. They would not offend Moscow for the sake of Tokyo.

What chilled the Japanese delegation even more was that the Soviet Union was sitting at the table so brazenly. A year ago, the Soviet Union was an outsider to the G7; now it was inside, and the first thing it did after entering was to share the spoils with everyone.

Shinzo Abe, an aide to the Japanese delegation, sat at the end of the long table taking notes.

He witnessed it all firsthand, saw the monetary coordination mechanism written into the final communiqué, saw the Soviet Foreign Economic Bank receive approval to enter Tokyo, and saw the Japanese chief representative sign the documents. He felt utterly humiliated!

In 1982, Shinzo Abe became the secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs because his father, Shintaro Abe, became the Minister of Foreign Affairs. In 86, Shintaro Abe stepped down as Minister of Foreign Affairs and prepared to run for Prime Minister. He was the chairman of the Seiwakai and the first in line for Prime Minister in real history, but he was eliminated due to the Recruit incident.

That's right, if the Recruit bribery case hadn't come to light, Shinzo Abe's father could have become prime minister.

Now Shinzo Abe understands: Japan has never been a player at this table; Japan is a bargaining chip.

The US, the Soviet Union, Europe... every decision made by the real players at this table involved Japan as a bargaining chip. A stronger yen? Fine, Japan will foot the bill!

Monetary coordination? Okay, Japan's central bank is handcuffed!

The Soviet Union wants to enter Japan's financial market? Fine, Japan, open the door!

The Soviet Union wanted to sell its resources? Fine, Japan would fund the industrial development and then use the profits to pay for it!

Every step, every move, saw Japan's profits being sliced ​​off and distributed among the players sitting at the table!

As for Japan—Japan could only sit there, sign, cooperate, smile, and bow.

Because it lacks independent capital. Its security depends on the United States, its diplomacy is dictated by the United States, and its economy is manipulated by the United States and the Soviet Union.

A country without independence and autonomy is never a player at this table; it is merely a bargaining chip.

This is probably how the Nationalist government felt when it participated in the Paris Peace Conference during World War I.

Shinzo Abe sat in a conference room in Paris, watching the Arc de Triomphe silhouette darken in the twilight outside the window.

He recalled what his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, had told him when he was a child. Kishi was a bureaucrat in Manchukuo before World War II. After the war, he was listed as a Class A war criminal suspect but was not prosecuted. He later returned to politics and served as Prime Minister of Japan from 1957 to 1960.

The most important political event during his term was pushing for the revision of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, which sparked a large-scale security struggle and protest movement.

"A nation that is kneeling, if it wants to stand up but cannot, is not because its legs are broken, but because someone else's feet are on its neck."

After returning to Tokyo, Shinzo Abe resigned from his position as secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A few months later, he joined a right-wing group.

There are more and more people like him in Japan.

P.S.: Sometimes, researching historical relationships between figures can be quite surprising...

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

In the second half of 1989, foreign investment from various countries began to flood Tokyo.

The Soviet Foreign Economic Bank once issued a large-scale Samurai Bond in Tokyo. Samurai Bonds were bonds denominated in yen—Japanese banks and insurance companies bought these bonds and lent the yen to the Soviet Union; the Soviet Union then used the yen to buy Japanese capital goods—machine tools, equipment, and technology—and shipped them back to Japan for use.

This inflow and outflow benefited the Soviet Union in two ways. On one hand, it absorbed the excess, nowhere-to-go capital from Japanese banks, which were on the verge of bursting from the bubble and desperately needed somewhere to put their money. Soviet samurai bonds provided them with a seemingly decent outlet.

On the other hand, the Soviet Union used these yen to buy Japanese machine tools and equipment, which directly boosted the profits of Japanese companies—Japanese products sold more, profits were better, and stock prices were higher.

The higher the stock price, the bigger the bubble. Every deal the Soviet Union made in the Japanese financial market fueled this bubble.

Meanwhile, the Nakhodka Special Economic Zone, established by the Soviet Union in the Far East, was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Japanese car factories, electronics factories, and light industrial enterprises moved entirely to Primorsky Krai. This scale was several times larger than when Slava initially negotiated with the Japanese conglomerate in a Moscow restaurant. Japan's industrial relocation transformed from a trickle into a river.

Slava also laid out an even bigger bait – the OGAS “Ten-Year Plan Order Book”.

The Soviet Union announced a ten-year OGAS infrastructure construction procurement plan that was open only to Japanese companies.

Computers, communication equipment, precision instruments... the Soviet Union planned to purchase these things in large quantities from Japan, things that it could not or could not manufacture well on its own.

This ten-year order book sparked a frenzy at the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

The stock prices of Japanese companies that secured OGAS orders soared, and analysts coined a new term – “the Soviet story.”

In Tokyo's trading halls, Soviet stories were the hottest topic. Any company that had ties to the Soviet Union, secured a Soviet contract, or built a factory in the Far East saw its stock price soar!

People inside the bubble don't know they're inside the bubble.

They thought this new frontier of the Soviet Union was an inexhaustible gold mine, and that OGAS's ten-year order book was a real guarantee of income that would never fail. They bet big and big on this story.

The Soviet Union used its previously issued bonds to purchase large quantities of Japanese capital goods—machine tools, semiconductor equipment, machining centers—each purchase directly boosting the profits and stock prices of Japanese companies. When the bubble burst, the Soviet Union would be left with machinery, while Japan would be left with a pile of worthless stocks.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

In December, the Bank of Japan underwent a personnel coup.

While it was called a coup, it was actually just a routine personnel appointment within the Japanese system. But it was precisely this routine appointment that removed the last possible brake on the Japanese economy.

On December 7, Satoshi Sumida stepped down as governor of the Bank of Japan. As is customary, Yasushi Mieno will be his next incumbent.

Yasushi Mieno is a hawk. He has always abhorred bubbles, and his stance is clear—interest rates must be raised, the brakes must be applied, or it will be too late! He's been waiting for this position. Once he's in power, the first thing he'll do is push interest rates up!

But he didn't sit down.

The G7's currency coordination mechanism came in handy at this moment. Under the pretext of international policy coordination, external pressure was exerted on the Japanese Prime Minister's Office through various channels.