Reborn in 2012, building a new energy empire

"The signal is clear enough." Jiang Haoran's tone was calm, yet carried a certainty that penetrated the surface.

"A clear double-top structure has formed on the daily chart, and yesterday's 4369 point is the right shoulder peak."

The most crucial factor is the trading volume. When new highs are reached, the trading volume increases abnormally, which is a typical sign of concentrated selling at high prices.

He walked to the whiteboard in the office, picked up a pen, and drew a curve that rose sharply and then flattened out abruptly: "The deeper logic lies in the market structure. Starting last week, the exchange tightened risk control and raised the margin ratio."

"Those short sellers who used extremely high leverage have been forced to liquidate their positions in the past few days, and their stop-loss orders have become the 'fuel' for pushing up prices."

"The major bullish players are using this 'fuel' to maintain strong prices while quietly realizing profits."

The pen tip pressed heavily at the top of the curve: "Now, the short sellers' margin calls have been basically wiped out, and the price, driven by frenzied sentiment, has deviated significantly from its actual spot value by more than 300 points. It's time for a change of protagonist on the stage."

He turned around, his eyes piercing: "Once the next decline begins, it won't be a gentle correction. Once the bulls and bears switch sides, the stop-loss lines of those retail investors and some institutions who chased the market at high levels and also used leverage will fall like rows of dominoes."

"Once the price falls below a certain critical point, it will trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations. That will no longer be a correction, but a stampede-like crash. We don't need to guess the exact peak; we just need to take a favorable position at a controllable cost in the early stages of a trend reversal."

Chen Jingge frowned, his gaze shifting back and forth between Jiang Haoran's calm face and the simple yet deadly graphic on the whiteboard.

He had weathered market storms and knew the immense risks of trading against the trend on the left side, but his nephew's near-frighteningly accurate judgment over the past few months was something he couldn't ignore. His inner caution and trust in Jiang Haoran were locked in a fierce struggle.

A dozen seconds later, he let out a long breath, his gaze sharpening and hardening: "I understand. Fortune favors the bold, and your assessment is that the turning point has arrived. So, what exactly do we do?"

Seeing that his uncle was convinced, Jiang Haoran nodded and began to plan: "Start building positions in batches after the market opens this afternoon. The initial position doesn't need to be large; start with 500 short positions. Set the entry range between 4350 and 4300. If the price rebounds, place orders near the upper limit of the range, but don't chase the price."

He paused, then elaborated: "If the price starts to fall as we expect, we can consider adding 500 lots for every 50-point drop. We must control the pace and maintain proper position management. If... the price really does fall to around 4000 points..."

Jiang Haoran's eyes sharpened like knives. "That means the downtrend is fully established and the downside is wide open. At that point, you can increase your position as needed, but the specific amount to increase will depend on the pace and structure of the market decline."

He sat back down at his desk, opened a new document, and his fingers flew across the keyboard, typing out several lines of core principles:

【Operational Ironclad Rules】

1. Build positions in batches; avoid heavy positions to gamble on market direction.

2. Preset stop-loss level, exit immediately upon triggering, unconditionally protecting principal;

3. Do not add to your position against the trend at key support/resistance levels; it's better to miss the opportunity.

4. In a downtrend, every rebound is an opportunity to add to your position; trade in line with the trend.

Jiang Haoran printed out the document and handed it to Chen Jingge: "For daily market monitoring and intraday trading, strictly follow this framework. I will grasp the overall direction and key points."

"From now on, our roles have officially changed: short selling with all our might. I have some things to take care of this afternoon, so I'll leave this to you for now."

Chen Jingge carefully noted down these key points and nodded solemnly: "Don't worry, I understand the discipline. Leave this to me."

A market rally that began with a weather narrative, fermented through collusion with capital, and was ultimately pushed to its extreme by human greed has reached its final, distorted climax.

And the prelude to the downturn will soon begin with them quietly pressing the first cold piano key.

Thursday, September 5th.

Soybean meal prices have fallen from their peak of 4350 points and are now fluctuating above the 4300-point mark.

Market sentiment remains high, with most people viewing this as a "healthy technical correction." Forums are filled with optimistic views such as "a bull market pullback is a rare opportunity" and "the pullback is the best time to buy."

The morning session had just begun, and soybean meal prices were still fluctuating. Jiang Haoran was watching the market when his phone suddenly rang.

"Feed? Haoran." Lin Miaomiao's voice came through the receiver, gentle as ever, with a slight rustling of wind in the background.

"Miaomiao, what are you doing?" Jiang Haoran asked.

"I just finished breakfast." She paused. "What about you? You've been so busy lately, you haven't called me at all."

"Yeah, I've been too busy lately," he replied, then casually added, "But I'm in Shanghai right now. Are you free tomorrow afternoon? I'd like to meet up with you."

There was a moment of silence on the other end of the phone, followed by a voice with a slight laugh: "Okay. But this time... don't let it be like last time, where you got called away halfway through."

"I promise I won't." Jiang Haoran laughed, his tone gentle to the point that he himself didn't even realize.

After hanging up the phone, he leaned back in his chair, his mood seemingly cleared by the brief call.

On one side lies the impending, cold and brutal market storm and capital game; on the other side lies the quietly budding, simple and pure campus romance and everyday life.

The phone vibrated in his palm, pulling him back to reality.

"Haoran, it's been an hour since the morning session started." It was Chen Jingge's voice; the faint sound of keyboard typing could be heard in the background. "The price is currently fluctuating around 4305, it's very tight. Should we continue with the planned short position?"

"Add." Jiang Haoran's answer was decisive and clear without any hesitation. "However, there are a few key principles for left-side trading: First, the opening range is strictly limited to 4250-4320; second, each order should not exceed fifty lots, and you should proceed slowly and steadily; third, and most importantly, if the price rebounds to above 4340, immediately suspend all opening positions and wait for my message."

There was a two-second silence on the other end of the phone, followed by Chen Jingge taking a deep breath and slowly exhaling: "Understood. I'll arrange it right away."

Jiang Haoran opened the futures market software on his mobile phone. On the intraday chart, the price found weak support around 4300 points and had a slight rebound, but the momentum was pitifully weak, and it failed to even touch 4310 points before turning downwards again.

This is a typical characteristic of a weak rebound – the bulls are no longer able to organize an effective counterattack.

Time flew by as they intently watched the market. At 2:10 p.m., Chen Jingge called again.

"The company account has added 600 short positions, bringing the total number of short positions to 1200, with an average cost of 4320 points."

My uncle's voice was much calmer than in the morning, clearly he was in the zone. "The price is currently hovering around 4300 points, with very little fluctuation. Should we continue to build positions?"

"Build one last hundred lots, then pause and observe the market's reaction," Jiang Haoran gave clear instructions.

"it is good."

At 3 PM, the closing bell rang. The soybean meal 1301 contract finally closed at 4302 points, barely holding above the psychological barrier of 4300 points.

The daily candlestick chart shows a small bearish candle with a relatively small body, and the trading volume has shrunk significantly compared to the peak of the previous few days.

Jiang Haoran pulled up a detailed report of institutional holdings and carefully read through it line by line.

The total open interest of the top five long and short positions decreased significantly compared to yesterday, which was expected.

But one detail caught his attention: a well-known major player from the Jiangsu and Zhejiang region, ranked second in holdings, reduced its position by more than 20,000 lots in a single day.

Amidst the recent record high prices and the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market, such a massive and decisive reduction in holdings is highly unusual.

This can only mean one thing: the smartest and most astute portion of major funds have begun to withdraw from the battlefield in a large-scale and orderly manner.