What sensitive materials need to be sold or procured?
To put it bluntly, isn't it just smuggling?
And you know what? They really did find the right person.
I'm very familiar with this job!
Chapter 42, Page 42: Tobacco
“These are the first batch of goods you’re going to sell!” In a warehouse in a suburban factory area of Chicago, Josie pointed to the warehouse full of wooden crates and said to Lyndon Schneider and Dix, then pointed to a crate next to her, “Dix, open it.”
Dix did as he was told and opened the box.
Dix's eyes lit up when he saw what was inside, and Lyndon Schneider's eyes widened as well.
"Such high-quality tobacco!" Lyndon Schneider exclaimed. "Could this warehouse be full of tobacco?"
“That’s right, it’s all roughly processed dried tobacco. Your task is to find a way to sell it. Whether you sell the tobacco leaves directly or process them into cigarettes, I don’t care. From the profits, you each get 10%, the others get 10%, and the rest goes to me. You can also give me other things I need, such as weapons, steel, cloth, grain, etc. If you can find some good deals, you can let me know in advance. So, any questions?” Josie asked Lyndon Schneider.
In later generations, when people talk about illegal and highly profitable industries, their first reaction is usually to think of gambling and drug addiction, which are mortal enemies, or arms dealing.
Especially for powder, the profit can easily be hundreds of times.
However, what many people don't know is that in the United States, pornography has never been the most profitable illegal industry.
In the 21st century, despite the fact that this harmful product has annual sales exceeding hundreds of billions in the United States and a massive industry scale, experts have calculated that due to various reasons such as high processing difficulty, market fragmentation, high risks leading to high transportation costs, etc., its net profit margin is actually not high, less than 20%. It only gives people the impression that this product is very profitable because of the many layers of diffusion and intermediate links in the process, which dilutes the profit exponentially.
Actually, compared to health supplements, this stuff is actually less profitable.
For example, bird's nest in sugar water contains only 0.001% bird's nest, and the rest is basically sugar water. A small bottle costs at most 3 yuan to produce but is sold for 30 yuan... resulting in a direct profit of 1000%.
As for arms, the real money is always made from the legal transactions of the big arms dealers. Illegal transactions are just small pieces. Even the so-called King of Arms, at his peak, only made a few billion dollars a year.
So, in the United States, what illegal industries are the most profitable?
From 1919 to the 50s, alcohol had the highest profit margin because of Prohibition.
After 1950, it was cigarettes, specifically smuggled cigarettes.
Yes, legal cigarettes are already a highly profitable industry, but illegal smuggled cigarettes are even more so.
In New York in 2021, for example, due to the highest tobacco tax in the country, the average retail price of a pack of legal cigarettes was $13, the wholesale price was $12.5, and the profit per pack was only 50 cents.
And what about smuggled cigarettes? The cost for smugglers to get the goods is less than $1 per pack, and even with the intermediate transportation costs, it will not exceed $3. They sell them to downstream retailers for $5-6, with a profit margin of at least 200%.
Meanwhile, downstream retailers, selling at $12 below market price, can still earn $5-6, resulting in a profit margin exceeding 100%.
Cigarettes aren't as expensive in other regions, but the average retail price still exceeds $7...
(In many places in the US, you can buy domestic cigarettes for less than in China because of tariffs, and cigarettes in China are not cheap to begin with.)
It is precisely this exorbitant profit that has led to illicit/counterfeit cigarettes accounting for more than 60% of the cigarette market in the United States.
The key question is: how high is the risk of the powder, and how high is the risk of the cigarette?
Aside from horse feed, which has gradually become legal in later generations, other forms of selling and attracting followers still carry relatively severe penalties. Most importantly, they can lead to the cancellation of most of the legal rights of citizens, and the penalties were even more severe in earlier years.
But what about selling cigarettes? Unless the IRS catches you red-handed, you can usually just pay a fine and be released.
The risk levels are on completely different levels.
Therefore, starting in the 50s, the Mafia, with its tight organization, high operational efficiency, and advanced information technology and supply chain management, had already begun to shift its industrial focus to selling cigarettes.
Let the bumpkins in Mexico and Colombia play with this stuff.
As an additional note, since the 90s, 90% of smuggled cigarettes on the US market have been made in PRC.
The only problem is that being an upstream supplier of smuggled cigarettes requires very high standards from managers.
This is why Josie values Lyndon Schneider so much. This guy is known as a crime expert, not only because of his high IQ and past experience in smuggling, but also because he's a genuine "PhD"—a doctoral student at the Faculty of Economics and Public Administration at the University of Munich…
Who the hell knows why someone like that would stoop so low as to steal?
But considering Germany's fate during World War I... it doesn't seem too surprising.
"How much stock is there in total?" Lyndon Schneider asked solemnly, looking at the warehouse that was completely full.
“40 tons!” Josie said with a smile.
40 tons?! Lyndon Schneider gasped in shock, his hands trembling slightly.
The price of cigarettes varied during that era due to differences in purchasing power.
A carton of cigarettes typically costs around $10.
This price may seem low, but if calculated in terms of purchasing power, it is actually more expensive than in later years. After all, according to the gold price ratio, the US dollar has depreciated by nearly 40 times in 2021.
If we're being honest, 40 tons of tobacco, at 1 gram of tobacco per cigarette, would amount to 40 million cigarettes, 2 million packs, or 200,000 cartons, for a total value of 4 million US dollars.
But what conscience do those who smuggle cigarettes need? Roll them loosely, or add a little hay, and the yield doubles, reaching eight million.
Even after deducting the profits from downstream sales, we can still earn at least two million.
Even if they can only keep 20%, that's still 400,000.
Isn't this better than stealing gems?
After all, if they can make 30% of a million-dollar piece of jewelry, that's considered a lot.
Moreover, selling cigarettes carries low risk.
"You can do it! Of course you can do it!" Lyndon Schneider's eyes were a little red.
Selling smuggled cigarettes is not just about high profits and low risks.
Often, cigarettes can be exchanged for things that money can't buy.
Especially in those chaotic regions, such as Europe today...
If Lyndon Schneider could have gotten that tobacco to present-day Europe, he could have traded it for a mountain of gold!
“However, Mr. Kahn, to sell so much tobacco smoothly, I need some start-up capital, and I also need more weapons and manpower!” Lyndon Schneider said after calming down a bit.
“Dix has prepared the manpower and weapons. As for the money, here’s fifty thousand. Also, let me introduce you to someone. Come out, Lieutenant Dietrich!” Josie clapped her hands.
Then a man in plainclothes emerged from the warehouse.
It was Sheriff Dietrich, who had appeared several times before.
"Mr. Kahn! It's been a long time, Mr. Schneider!" Sheriff Dietrich greeted Josh respectfully at first, then turned to greet Schneider with a hint of arrogance.
"So it's Sheriff Dietrich!" Lyndon Schneider greeted him with a strange expression, and instantly understood why Josie had introduced the sheriff.
The two layers of profit in the tobacco industry are the carrot, while the presence of this sheriff is the stick.
However, with the help of such a sheriff, the sale of tobacco would indeed be much easier.
"Speaking of which, Schneider, the sheriff deserves a lot of credit for getting you out so early. Also, the profits from the tobacco business will go to the sheriff and his colleagues. You'll need to cooperate more in the future," Josie said with a smile. "We're all smart people; we should understand the significance of this business. And this is just the first batch. As long as we work hard, I guarantee everyone will become very wealthy. But if anyone has any other ideas, I advise them to think carefully about the consequences!"
The group quickly agreed.
"Alright, the rest is up to you. I have some other things to attend to, so I'll be leaving now!" After giving his instructions, Josie didn't linger and left.
As for whether Lyndon Schneider would steal these batches of tobacco, Josie wasn't worried at all.
He has prepared two safeguards.
Dix's men were all cowboys he recruited from his hometown of Kentucky; they were all people with families, and even Dix himself was tied to Louis's widow.
Lyndon Schneider's decision to smuggle the tobacco depends on whether these people agree.
The other layer of protection is Dietrich.
This guy is a genuine corrupt cop. When Josie was trying to help Lyndon Schneider and Dix get acquitted, she accidentally obtained a lot of dirt on this cop. And as a cop, he also has a family to support.
So, under coercion and enticement, the corrupt cop easily sided with Josie.
In particular, the profit from a single layer of dozens of tons of tobacco would normally be enough for Dietrich, this corrupt cop, to collect bribes for over a decade.
As for being bitten back? Josie didn't care at all.
As mentioned before, selling cigarettes in the dark is not a serious crime at all. Moreover, as long as Josh is willing to spend money, not only is the probability of losing a lawsuit very low, but even if he does lose, as long as Margot is around, he can still get out by spending some money.
But these few people... hehe.
The only thing to worry about is that these people, having nothing to lose, are fearless and will fight to the death.
But that possibility is too low. Knowing that as long as you work honestly for Josie, you can make a steady stream of money, who would be so stupid as to do a one-off deal?
Unless they can bypass Josie and get the supplies directly.
But where does Josie get her supplies?
Westeros!
You can take it!
Indeed, aside from the more legitimate trades they had previously engaged in, tobacco was a new, highly profitable business that Josie and Daenerys discovered during their interactions.
However, in Westeros, tobacco is not smoked, but chewed like betel nut. This is actually the earliest way tobacco was used when it was first discovered by humans. Because of its sour taste, it is called sour grass leaf. The finished tobacco leaves are not sour, but alkaline, because they are mainly flue-cured tobacco. Fresh tobacco leaves actually contain a lot of organic acids such as citric acid and malic acid. These acids are released during the curing of tobacco leaves, forming a white powder.
Because tobacco has great medicinal value and is highly addictive, it was very popular among the nobility, so it was grown in large quantities in Westeros.
Daenerys has even more territory, after all, it's Slaver's Bay, where labor costs are practically free, so the overall cost is very, very low.
However, it is clear that this thing is useless to Daenerys, a queen who is obsessed with conquering the world.
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