Starting with the smashing of Dunkirk

Chapter 126 Without Lelouch, Grand Duke Nicholas's plan wouldn't have been wrong.
Grand Duke Nikolayevich showed no sign of backing down in the face of the Tsar's nephew's rebuke.

For the Russa Empire, Grand Duke Nikolayevich was a true patriot who only cared about national interests and the survival of the nation.

If he believes his strategy is correct, he must speak out, without worrying about the opinion of the Tsar's nephew.

History will prove itself right.

Therefore, he earnestly stated his reasons for the decision: "Your Majesty, my decision to assemble 300 million troops to defend Poland to the death is not based on personal likes or dislikes, nor is this number made lightly."

I have carefully analyzed the enemy's subsequent strategy. The most likely strategy is to advance from Lithuania to Lviv from the north and south, and finally cut off the Polish salient along the Bug River in Brest-Litovsk. The probability of them doing this is at least 90%!
Therefore, the empire's response strategy must be focused and targeted. Simply spreading the army evenly along the defensive line would cause the greatest disaster, ultimately resulting in the inability to hold any territory!

Nicholas II had already had enough: "Three million is impossible! Two million at most. And have you considered that if we gather two million people in Poland, from which direction should we transfer them? Don't we need people from other places?"

Although Nicholas II was somewhat angry, he still responded skillfully. He did not flatly reject the other party's advice, but instead threw the question back at him: You say you want to remove people, then the other party is responsible for specifying where to remove them.

If the advice is unreliable, then refuse it again. In a way, the Tsar was humbly accepting advice; it was the advisors who couldn't come up with a better solution.

If the advice sounds plausible, it's hard to refuse, so you might as well listen. But if any new problems are discovered during implementation, the person who offered the advice will be held accountable.

Grand Duke Nikolayevich knew he couldn't avoid this issue, and he knew what his nephew, the Tsar, was planning, but he couldn't back down and had to personally take on these risks:
"To muster more than 200 million troops for Poland, the Empire can only draw forces from three directions: either from the Imperial Guard near the capital, from garrisons in the Kievan Rus' plains, or from the Transcaucasus region. Apart from these three fronts, there are no troops available to draw from elsewhere."

In the South Caucasus region, the absolute number of troops required is not actually that large; even if 10 to 20 were transferred, it would be of little use. Therefore, the priority should be to draw troops from the Imperial Guard near the capital, as well as from the Baltic coast, especially the Gulf of Finland.

Secondly, troops could be drawn from the garrison on the Kievan Rus' plain, but the Kievan Rus' plain itself was also at risk of enemy attack, so this direction could only be a supplement, not the primary source.

Nicholas II was not as knowledgeable about military affairs as his uncle. After hearing this specific suggestion, he was at a loss for words and said he would consider it. Then he said he was hungry and asked the palace servants to serve him a meal, and invited his uncle to join him in the banquet.

Even at a casual banquet in the palace, the emperor and his ministers could not sit at the same table; the ministers would sit at a separate table far to the side.

After Grand Duke Nikolayevich was sent away, Nicholas II had room to maneuver. During a meal, he had his attendant deliver a message to his trusted military advisors, asking them to analyze the pros and cons of drawing reinforcements from the vicinity of the capital and even the Kievan Rus' plains.

Nicholas II quickly learned a thing or two, and after the luncheon, he continued the conversation with his uncle:
"The strategy that Uncle just presented before dinner seems a bit risky, doesn't it? The possibility of the enemy attacking the Kievan Rus' Plain should not be much lower than the possibility of attacking Poland. Isn't diverting local troops just handing over the Kievan Rus' Plain to the enemy for nothing?"
As for the troops near the capital, if they are withdrawn, and the enemy advances from central Lithuania towards Riga, or even breaks through Riga to the southern shore of the Gulf of Finland and threaten the royal domain, who will be responsible then?

Nikolayevich's heart skipped a beat, realizing that his nephew, the Tsar, had obviously been misled by some unprofessional slander, and he quickly protested:
"Your Majesty must not heed these nitpicking opinions! The Kievan Rus' plains are indeed indefensible, and if the enemy advances, our army may easily lose some territory. But if the enemy dares to continue penetrating deeper, they will inevitably pay the price! Once the Empire has the resources to spare in the future, it can send a large force south from the north, straight to the shores of the Black Sea, and no matter how many enemy troops come, they can be encircled and annihilated!"
The upper reaches of major rivers like the Dnieper were controlled by the Empire, preventing enemies from controlling the complete water transport network. The Empire's railway network also radiated outwards from St. Petersburg and Moscow. Many cities on the Kievan Rus' plain, though seemingly close to each other, were not directly connected by rail; they required passing through at least the regional hubs of Kiev or Kharkiv.

Therefore, as long as the Empire holds onto Kiev and Kharkiv, even if the smaller towns on the Kievan Rus' Plain are temporarily lost, the enemy will eventually be forced to retreat too far into our territory and suffer from insufficient supplies and reinforcements. Ultimately, the Empire can easily advance south from Kiev and Kharkiv, reach the coast, and encircle and annihilate the enemy forces that have penetrated deep into our territory!

The situation is similar along the Baltic coast in the north. The enemy's problem now is that their northern and southern flanks have penetrated quite deep into our territory. If they continue to extend these flanks, their logistical difficulties will become increasingly severe. In comparison, attacking Poland is the most cost-effective option for them, because Poland is closer to their homeland than other territories—this is a very simple principle.”

Grand Duke Nikolayevich then gave a long analysis of the logistical difficulties, which in short emphasized how dangerous it would be for the enemy to penetrate deep into enemy territory alone, how bad the land and infrastructure of the Great Rusa Empire were, and that if the enemy did not advance horizontally but instead made a key infiltration, they would be courting death!

Finally, seemingly worried that his nephew, the Tsar, might still have reservations, Grand Duke Nikolayevich added one last reason to persuade him:
"Moreover, the Empire has a naval advantage in the northern Baltic Sea and even the Black Sea. Although the Demacians have many warships, I've heard that they only have two capital ships sold to the Ottomans in the Black Sea, so their strength is far inferior to ours."

Moreover, I've heard that due to our recent defeat, the relevant diplomatic departments have put pressure on the Bretanians, who will soon launch the Gallipoli campaign and seize the Dardanelles Strait from the Ottomans. At that time, the Bretanians' invincible fleet will be able to sail into the Black Sea to support us, and our country will gain absolute naval supremacy in the Black Sea!
If the Dmanians dare to penetrate deep into enemy territory alone, even if they temporarily occupy some of our land, as long as Kiev and Kharkiv remain intact, our counter-offensive can use Kiev as a base to advance south along the railway. Simultaneously, a contingent of troops can be transported by sea to land in our former ports, which have temporarily fallen behind enemy lines, allowing us to launch a pincer attack on the German forces from the north and south, effectively doubling the efficiency of cutting off their isolated, deep-penetrating troops!
As for the Baltic Sea, although the Burkina Faso navy cannot come in to reinforce us, the Empire has been operating in the heart of the Baltic Sea for many years. Whether in the Gulf of Bodnia, the Gulf of Finland, or the Gulf of Riga, the Empire has deployed mines for a long time, forming a comprehensive mine navigation restriction map.

Unless the enemy can find a navigational route through the minefield, even if the Demacians have more ships in the Baltic Sea, they will not be able to enter the waters north of the Gulf of Riga. If the Demacian army dares to penetrate too far, their fate will be the same as on the Black Sea. The Empire has sufficient strategic depth to allow the enemy to enter slightly, then land from behind, coordinate with friendly forces to cut off the enemy's retreat, and encircle and annihilate the enemy who has penetrated too far!

Therefore, whether the enemy chooses to advance north from Latvia or west from Kievan Rus', it is unwise. Both are risky, isolated advances that our forces could not possibly anticipate. Unless the enemy commander is mentally deficient, he would never make such a foolish and incompetent decision.

Grand Duke Nikolayevich spoke with absolute certainty and without any room for doubt.

When Nicholas II saw that his uncle was portraying the enemy as mentally challenged, he thought it over and finally realized that there was some truth to it.

The land around Luzan is too rotten, and the Luzanian navy has complete control of the northern Baltic and the entire Black Sea. What's the point of the enemy not trying to encircle the region from the center, but instead extending their flanks along the coast?
"In that case, I agree in principle with my uncle's deployment suggestion. However, it is definitely impossible to gather 300 million people. We can only try to mobilize 220 to 240 million people, which is the limit. However, I authorize my uncle to find another way, such as conscripting the local people into the army after arriving in Poland, so that they can fight for the Empire and resist Demania."

With so many troops, it's impossible to rely on procuring provisions from the rear; the empire simply cannot afford it. We can first requisition provisions locally in Poland to solve a large portion of the problem, and then, after winter, allocate some of the autumn harvest from the Kievan Rus' plains to them.”

Grand Duke Nikolayevich wanted to negotiate even better terms in order to hold Poland and wear down the German army. However, the Tsar gave him no further chance to make demands, and the matter had to be dropped.

Even after leaving the Summer Palace, the Grand Duke still felt somewhat resentful.

"Can we only give 220 million people? The rest will have to be recruited locally... In that case, the Empire's efforts to win over the Poles will definitely be damaged. Oh well, things have come to this point, and there is no other choice."

Instead, we should find a way to strengthen and promote Roman Demoowski and his ilk, letting them build more Polish legions. At the same time, we should round up all the Polish liberal arts intellectuals who lean towards Pilsudski's position and send them to the army as cannon fodder to fight the Demanians to the death. This way, we can prevent them from rising up in rebellion!

To the untrained eye, Grand Duke Nikolayevich's idea might sound completely incomprehensible.

However, it becomes easy to understand with a little explanation: Before the outbreak of the war, many intellectuals in the Polish region fled to the Frankish region, mainly Paris, and formed various factions, all with the ultimate goal of inciting the Polish people to rebel and become independent.

However, with the outbreak of war, many restless individuals among the Poles split into two factions.

One faction, represented by Piłsudski, believed that the Demanians could be used to help them weaken the Russa Empire, and then a new state could be established in the part of Poland that the Russa Empire originally controlled.

Roman Demoowski, on the other hand, belonged to a different faction, directly opposing Piłsudski. They believed that the Russa people could be used to fight for Russa, eliminate Demania, and in the future, they could take some of the Polish territory controlled by Germany and Austria to establish a Polish state.

These two groups, each wearing their own military uniforms, fought each other on the battlefield.

Before World War I, the reason why the Polish region maintained its self-awareness—even though the country had been gone for more than 130 years—was that both Germany and Poland sought to cultivate local people to speak for them in order to attract their fellow countrymen across the border.

The Russa granted autonomy to the Poles not out of kindness, but because they knew this would alienate the Poles within Demand, destabilizing Demand rule there. Similarly, the Demands were forced to grant the Poles certain rights to balance Russa influence.

This phenomenon will be familiar to those who are well-versed in history. A prime example is the Kurdish issue, which has persisted into the 21st century. The Kurdish problem also emerged after World War I and has remained unresolved for over a century.

Their vitality stems from the fact that the Kurds are scattered across Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq. This forces these four countries to compete with each other in how they treat the Kurds, preventing them from being completely suppressed. Otherwise, they risk pushing each other towards enemy or neighboring countries.

Since ancient times, laborers have benefited from mutual exploitation of capital, and capitalers have benefited from mutual exploitation of labor; this is a natural principle.

When labor and employees are mutually involved, employers can say, "If you don't want to do it, there are plenty of others who will."

When employers and employees are mutually involved, employees can say, "If you don't raise your wages, there are plenty of other bosses who will."

If Poland had not been divided into three countries, but instead had been entirely within one country, it would have been assimilated and melted down within three generations and sixty years.

If the Kurds hadn't been deliberately separated into four countries by Britannia, the master of deliberate landmine planting, when the border was being demarcated, the issue would have been resolved long ago.

However, although everyone knows this principle, Grand Duke Nikolayevich, driven by practical needs, can no longer afford to consider such considerations now.

He knew that such exploitative and oppressive treatment of the Polish people would be a short-sighted solution for the future rule of the empire.

Even in the worst-case scenario, if the awakened among the Poles were forced to go to the battlefield as cannon fodder, be killed by the Demanians, and ultimately the Empire failed to preserve Poland... then it would be tantamount to playing the villain and clearing away some obstacles for the Demanians to rule the Polish region in the future.

But he had no choice; this was the only option. The series of battles in Gorlice-Hungary resulted in the annihilation of 77 French troops and the complete destruction of the Southwestern Front.

Historically, a significant portion of the troops used by the Russo people to defend Poland were the two fully-fledged army groups that Brusilov had withdrawn to Poland.

But in this life, those two reorganized army groups have shrunk to only five divisions...

With so many fewer men, and still needing to hold the line, we'll have to conscript soldiers from the Poles on the spot!

To recruit such a large-scale local militia without allowing the Poles to think too much or resist, it was essential to first recruit Polish liberal arts intellectuals, so that the Poles wouldn't have the brains to think wildly.

A plan to rely on local Polish personnel and food supplies, strengthen local defenses, and hold off a possible Dmanian attack gradually took shape in the mind of Archduke Nikolayevich, the commander-in-chief of the Polish army.

And it was quickly implemented and carried out.

Lusa's war machine accelerated again, and the Lusa army in Poland quickly increased from less than one million to several hundred thousand, and it continued to reinforce itself, constantly drawing troops from the Baltic coast and the Kievan Rus' plain.

Polish troublemakers and liberal arts intellectuals were also conscripted in large numbers, and they were accompanied by Russa natives to supervise their fighting. Anyone who instigated trouble was killed, especially the eloquent ones.

……

"The battle is over, but the Russo people seem to have adjusted their strategy in time. They are constantly sending troops to reinforce the Polish region. It seems that Marshal Hindenburg's plan to 'take advantage of the previous great victories on both the north and south flanks, launch a pincer attack, and finally cut off the enemy's Polish salient near the Brest Fortress' is a bit difficult to execute."

A few days later, on July 2, shortly after the conclusion of a series of battles between Hungary and Romania.

Duke Rupprecht, commander of the 6th Army, who had just arrived in Bucharest, the capital of Romania, summoned his confidant, Colonel Lelouch von Riettel Hunt.

He informed him of this enemy situation and also relayed the General Staff's recent recommendations for the next phase of the campaign to Lelouch for his consideration.

The Duke's idea was simple: he wanted to hear Lelouch's opinion and see what he thought of Marshal Hindenburg's plans. He also wanted to see if Lelouch had any countermeasures for the current changes in the enemy situation.

Lelouch hasn't been preoccupied with military affairs these past few days. After the battle, he's been inspecting the Ploiești oil fields in Romania to see how production is recovering and whether there's any possibility of increasing extraction in the short term.

Historically, before World War II, the peak production of the Ploiești oil field in Romania reached more than 1000 million barrels per year, or about 200 million tons (1 barrel of crude oil is 50 gallons, and about 7 barrels are equivalent to 1 ton).
Unfortunately, it was only 1915, and the oil fields here only produced more than 200 million barrels a year, about 30 tons.

In other words, compared to 25 years from now, the current oil field development rate is only one-sixth of what it will be in 25 years.

If we work hard to expand production, even if we don't go all the way up to six times the current size, we should be able to more than double the current value within one or two years.

However, it requires substantial investment in basic industries. The production equipment, exploration instruments, pipelines, and oil tanks needed all require large quantities of raw materials and industrial orders, which are difficult to coordinate during wartime. In particular, the imperial high command may not yet have grasped the immense value of a large fuel supply.

Therefore, Lelouch originally planned to take advantage of the opportunity in early and mid-July, when the troops might need a break, to gather information about the situation here, and then return to Japan to try to coordinate orders for supplies and equipment. He also wanted to check on the latest progress of his three-phase electric arc furnace steel plant, which had been in operation for several months, and to discuss further cooperation with Krupp.

But since His Highness the Duke had come and asked him about a major military decision, Lelouch decided to spare some time to help his superior analyze the situation.

After briefly reviewing the information the Duke had gathered about the current situation, he immediately made his stance clear:

"I didn't expect the Russo people to react so quickly. After their crushing defeats in Hungary and Lviv, they immediately thought of strengthening their forces to defend Poland—but I think this is nothing to worry about."

The Lussauers are worried that we will advance from both the north and south, cutting off Poland and wasting a large number of troops there. In that case, we should suggest that the General Staff change the plan to a two-pronged attack, with the north and south each expanding their gains along the coastline.

The northern front could seize the Baltic coastline all the way to the mouth of the Gulf of Finland. The southern front could advance along the Black Sea, first capturing Odessa, then Crimea, and then moving upstream to utilize the Dnieper River system in conjunction with a frontal ground offensive, aiming for the heart of the Kievan Rus' Plain.

"What? You actually suggest abandoning Marshal Hindenburg's Polish campaign plan? Wait, tell me, are you just opposing it for the sake of opposing it, or do you genuinely believe your approach is better than Marshal Hindenburg's?"

The Duke was taken aback and had no choice but to ask this question.

After all, Duke Rupprecht was also very knowledgeable about military matters. Like the enemy's Grand Duke Nikolaevich, he could see at a glance how many shortcomings the "flying on both flanks and continuing to penetrate deep into enemy territory" plan had.

Going too deep into the area would make logistical issues difficult to resolve.

In particular, regarding Lelouch's mention of "Odessa," the Duke even specifically countered with a reminder:
"Didn't you look at the map carefully? You'd better think this through: there's no direct railway from Lviv, which we currently occupy, to Odessa! We have to go from Lviv to Kyiv first, and then transfer from Kyiv to Odessa!"
The railway network in Odessa is very rudimentary; almost every place requires a transfer at a regional hub to connect with other areas. Although Odessa is only about 100 kilometers from the Romanian border, the road there is truly terrible.

Lelouch: "But we can use the navy to transport supplies—isn't Odessa a seaport? So what if there's no direct railway to Lviv or Chisinau? We don't need to rely on railways to transport supplies for the siege forces!"

The Duke was surprised again: "Rely on the navy? The Empire has no presence in the Black Sea at all. It relies entirely on the Romanians, Bulgarians, and Ottomans for merchant ships. As for the navy, only the allies, the Ottomans, have a navy, which consists of two battlecruisers and a bunch of old ships that the Empire sold to them before the war—can you really say that these ships can easily defeat the Russo's Black Sea fleet?"
Moreover, even if the Empire could control the Ottoman navy and, by some stroke of luck, achieve one or two minor victories, altering the naval balance in the Black Sea, what if the Bretanians, at any cost, broke through their naval forces in the Eastern Mediterranean and entered the Black Sea?

Lelouch: "The Britannians simply cannot cross the Dardanelles."

Duke: "If they launch a ground attack from Greece in an attempt to control the straits quickly and allow their fleet to pass through..."

Lelouch: "Your Highness, please trust my judgment. The Britannians couldn't even launch a surprise attack or briefly control the strait."

The Duke did not immediately refute, but thought for a moment and changed the subject: "Alright, we'll set aside the dispute over the Black Sea for now, but what about the Baltic Sea? It's true that the Britannian fleet cannot enter the Baltic Sea through the Denmark Strait."

If the main force of the Imperial Navy were concentrated in the Baltic Sea, it could indeed overwhelm the Lusa's Baltic fleet. However, the problem is that the waters north of Riga and Visby Island are filled with mines by the Lusa, and only the Lusa have the navigation charts to cross the minefields.

The Russo people knew their navy was no match for the Empire's, and had long ago sealed off the Baltic Sea north of the Gulf of Riga with mines. In May, the navy's light patrol reconnaissance fleet attempted to penetrate the waters north of the Gulf of Riga, but failed, losing a few light ships in the process.

Lelouch: "Then let's develop a new type of mine-clearing tool—I've even looked into this topic. The mines used by the Lussa to block the Gulf of Riga, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Bodnia are mainly moored mines."

This refers to a torpedo with a steel cable attached to the bottom, which is then tied to a heavy anchor on the bottom. The length of the cable is adjusted to allow buoyancy to keep the torpedo suspended at a certain depth in the water, usually slightly shallower than the draft of a warship. It will explode if it hits the surface.

As for more complex fuses, the Russo people don't seem to have the technological capabilities to make them; they can only make trigger-activated mines. And I think there should be a way to crack these mines—even if we can't, we can still operate independently in the Black Sea; if we can, we can operate in both directions in the Baltic Sea. Whether the Russo people want to leave two million or three million people in Poland, let them stay; they can just sit there and do nothing.”

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P.S.: That's all for today.

This was written recently, so it might be a little verbose.

Don't wait for tomorrow morning's 8 AM update; check back tomorrow at noon. I'm completely out of drafts and will have to write it all tomorrow morning.

(End of this chapter)