Starting with the smashing of Dunkirk

Chapter 125 The Lussarians' Countermeasures
Some are happy and some are sad.

One day in mid-June, while Germany, Austria, and other countries were celebrating their great victory in annihilating more than a million enemy soldiers and destroying two countries.

In Peterhof Palace in St. Petersburg, the bearded Nicholas II was locked in his study, his face full of worry.

Upon learning that the Southwestern Front had been almost completely annihilated, he seemed to age several years overnight and locked himself away. He even refused to see Empress Feodorovna.

Finally, it was a scruffy priest who never bathed who requested an audience, and he reluctantly granted him one.

"Your Majesty...please take care of your health and do not let temporary setbacks cloud your judgment," the disheveled man with curly hair and beard comforted the Tsar.

“Mr. Rasbukin! You said that the Empire could wipe out the Austrians in one fell swoop this year, why has the situation turned out like this!” Nicholas II’s eyes were bloodshot, and his voice was hoarse like a wild beast, showing his extreme unwillingness.

It turns out that this slovenly man in a priest's robe was none other than Rasbukin, the charlatan who had recently been quite adept at bewitching the royal family.

In truth, Rasbukin was also quite helpless. He merely possessed a shrewd understanding of human nature and said only what the Tsar wanted to hear. After flattering the Tsar, his own army was unable to realize the Tsar's ambitions, and there was nothing he could do.

But now that things have come to this, he has no choice but to grit his teeth and try to give the Tsar more resolve, offering all sorts of advice.

Nicholas II was dejected for a long time, and then sighed: "Last year, the Empire lost more than 150 million troops. In the first five months of this year, on the northern front in Lithuania, the Empire lost another 50 men to Hindenburg and Mackensen."

Now, with another 80 lost on the southern front, plus other miscellaneous losses, the Empire has accumulated 300 million casualties in this war! Less than a year into the war, in just 10 months, the Empire has lost 300 million troops!

Nicholas II's statement about "Lithuania losing another 50 men on the northern front" was a genuine defeat, occurring around the same time as the disastrous Hungarian campaign in the south, and even slightly earlier. By the end of May, Lithuania's 50-strong army had been completely annihilated. (Historical fact)

To be honest, when this news eventually reached Lelouch's ears, he was helpless: he had finally managed to help the relatively controllable Marshal Leopold and Duke Rupprecht gain military merits, annihilating 77 French troops in the south. If Hindenburg and Rodendorff, those warmongers, did not gain more military merits, then Leopold's prestige would clearly surpass Hindenburg's.

And what happened? The Lussacks themselves were unreliable, losing another 50 men in the same period between East Prosen and Lithuania on the northern front, allowing Hindenburg to overtake them in total enemy kills.

Who can he complain to? If Lelouch wants to put the brakes on the Empire in the future and prevent a world war from ending in exhaustion for both sides, he can only find a way to help his faction's military achievements surpass Hindenburg's.

There's no other way; next time we'll have to eliminate another 200 million enemies, or even more. In short, we need to kill them significantly faster than on the northern front.

Rasbukin remained silent with his head down until Nicholas II finished his rambling speech, then gently advised, "Your Majesty, the Empire has a population of 180 million, 90 million of whom are male, and 30 million of whom are of working age. The loss of 3 million is approximately one-tenth."

Fortunately, so far, the empire's territory has not been significantly occupied by the enemy. Last year's battles at Tannenberg and Lake Masurian took place on enemy land, and this year's bloody battles at Krakow and Hungary are also on Austrian territory. Enemy territory has been reduced to ruins in the war, and productivity and civilians have suffered greatly. As long as we persevere, it will inevitably be the enemy who cannot hold out in the end.

The empire has now lost the land that is the western part of the Kievan Rus' Plain, the narrow strip between Lviv and Bessarabia, and part of Lithuania to the north. The total population of the occupied territory is less than 200 million, of which only 30 are eligible males.

As long as the empire's core population remains intact, coupled with the wealthy nation of Burma continuously supplying us with resources and weaponry, victory is inevitable for the empire. At the beginning of the war, all nations had a large surplus of population, resulting in extremely high unemployment rates. Therefore, those who rushed to join the army at the start of the war were often opportunists, simply looking for a place to earn a living and gain merit for promotion.

It's not surprising that such an army lacks combat effectiveness. Although there have been some losses, those who died were mostly opportunists, and those recruited next will mostly be genuinely committed to defending their country. The situation will surely turn around..."

Rasbukin spouted nonsense, disregarding logic, but certainly delivering a lot of emotional value.

This is a common tactic used by charlatans all over the world.

It's like when someone who feels things aren't going well goes to a therapist, the therapist will always say a lot of things that make people uncomfortable, as if everything is their problem and they need to change.

But if you go to a fortune teller, whether it's Buddhist, Taoist, or Western, they can sum it up in one sentence: "Someone is causing your misfortune! It's not your fault!"
As long as this responsibility is shirked, even if the problem is not ultimately solved, it sounds good. People who were originally disappointed will feel happy and no longer worry about gains and losses.

Otherwise, why would so many emperors throughout history be treacherous ministers who loved to flatter their emperors?

Moreover, Rasbukin's account is not entirely unfounded. In countries like Russo, at the very beginning of the war, many of those who eagerly joined the army were opportunists seeking merit and promotion. However, Rasbukin's generalization of these isolated incidents gave the Tsar a way out.

Nicholas II finally rallied slightly: "You are absolutely right. Indeed, the Empire's 300 million-strong army has such low combat effectiveness, which must be because there were too many opportunists among those who joined the army early on! In the future, the army must be disciplined and loyalty must be emphasized. Everything will surely be turned around."

Rasbukin knew he had persuaded the Tsar to return, and concluded with a profound yet compassionate remark: "It is wonderful that His Majesty can pull himself together. As for the speculators who have been lost, there is no need to worry too much."

True patriots are those who dare to face bloodshed and defeat. At the beginning of the war, so many people wanted to infiltrate and ride the wave of victory precisely because the empire seemed so powerful. Now that the situation is less favorable, those who come now are the true patriots.

True patriots don't only emphasize defending their country when it seems powerful. If they do, they'll only be seen as opportunists. What if the country is no longer powerful? Does that mean they won't defend their country?

Nicholas II was greatly encouraged, and his determination to continue the fight to the death became even stronger.

……

After getting rid of the charlatan, Nicholas II finally cheered up and stopped isolating himself, and began to receive his courtiers and handle state affairs normally.

The situation in St. Petersburg has finally stabilized somewhat.

The following day, Grand Duke Nikolayevich, Commander-in-Chief of the Russo Army, requested an audience with the Tsar to discuss the near annihilation of the Southwestern Front, to present his strategies and countermeasures, and to discuss post-battle rewards and punishments. Grand Duke Nikolayevich was the late Tsar's third brother, and thus the current Tsar's uncle.

Nicholas II held his uncle in high regard, but the uncle consistently looked down on Rasbukin, the charlatan working for Nicholas II, and hoped that Nicholas II would "befriend the virtuous and distance himself from the wicked." Meanwhile, Nicholas II needed Rasbukin to alleviate the Crown Prince's hemophilia symptoms through some kind of "miracle" because no one could cure it.

Over time, Nicholas II came to believe that his uncle's advice to "befriend the virtuous and keep away from the wicked" was a pretense, that his real intention was to get rid of the miracle worker who could cure the crown prince's hemophilia, and that his ultimate goal was to murder the crown prince so that if Nicholas II were to suddenly pass away, his uncle could seize the throne.

Once such a chain of suspicion formed, the conflict between the uncle and nephew within the royal family became increasingly serious. Moreover, the uncle was also the commander-in-chief of the army, which made Nicholas II feel even more resentful.

When Grand Duke Nikolayevich came to the study at the Summer Palace for an audience, Nicholas II, with a cold and expressionless face, asked:

"Uncle, does your visit perhaps reflect a new perspective on the Hungarian campaign? Or are you blaming me for forcing Yudovich to advance recklessly with the entire Southwestern Front?"

Grand Duke Nikolayevich, equally cold-faced and expressionless, advised: "How dare I blame Your Majesty? Your Majesty's intentions were certainly good, but in the process of implementation, you were instigated by some charlatans and became a little hasty. I believe this was not Your Majesty's original intention. As long as Your Majesty does not listen to slander in the future, the country can still recover."

Nicholas II's lips twitched as he listened. The previous rash order was indeed his own. Although Rasbukin had praised his decision as brilliant, ultimately it was because he himself felt it was the right thing to do, and others were just echoing him.

My uncle came in and started making veiled accusations, saying that the decision was made "by being misled by treacherous people." Wasn't that a slap in the face to himself? This was intolerable!
"That truly disappoints my uncle. Sending Yudovic straight to Budapest was my original intention!"

Grand Duke Nikolayevich was taken aback. Firstly, he genuinely hadn't expected this to be the Tsar's true intention. Secondly, he felt that if the Tsar had any political wisdom whatsoever, he would have shifted the blame to his subordinates in this situation, rather than directly confronting the issue head-on.

You've already given the other person a way out, so why not take it?
Grand Duke Nikolayevich did not want to break off relations; he merely wanted to play the art of compromise, giving the Tsar a way out so that he would realize his mistake and make subsequent advice more effective, so that the Tsar would be more obedient to him.

As a result, the conversation escalated to this point, creating a tense atmosphere, making any subsequent compromises difficult to achieve.

Grand Duke Nikolayevich thought for a long time before finding the right words to smooth things over: "Even if it is His Majesty's will, everyone makes mistakes. Since the war has already come to this, I urge His Majesty to choose the better path in the future and not to continue to act unilaterally..."

As he spoke, he listened carefully to the Tsar's breathing and tone of voice.

Nicholas II was angry for a while, but then felt that he should compromise, and the two then got into a normal discussion of strategy.

"So, Uncle, what strategic plans have you come here this time that you hope I can support? Please tell me. I am also very interested to know what the next step should be after the annihilation of the Southwest Army, and what should be prioritized."

Grand Prince Nikolayevich: "I have carefully analyzed the war situation these past few days. The Demanians have achieved great victories on both the northern and southern fronts this year. They have occupied half of Lithuania in the north and the area from Lviv to Bessarabia in Kievan Rus' in the south."

In this way, the Empire's Polish salient in the center becomes even more prominent. If I were in Hindenburg's position to command the troops, I would certainly organize a north-south offensive during the late summer and autumn.

From the north, they advanced south from East Prosen and Lithuania; from the south, they advanced north from Lviv. Ultimately, they would converge near the Brest-Litovsk Fortress along the Bug River, capture this fortress spanning the Bug, and finally encircle and annihilate the entire Polish salient controlled by the Empire!

Grand Duke Nikolayevich's words might not be understood by laymen.

However, if someone could use their clairvoyance to assess the battlefield situation, they would find that the Grand Duke was not wrong—because in Earth's history, in the latter half of 1915, the main offensive of Germany and Austria-Hungary on the Eastern Front was indeed fought in this very direction. And they fought quite well, ultimately resulting in the "1915 Polish Escape" by Russo's side, annihilating 150 million Polish troops and occupying the entire Polish region.

(Note: The image below shows what Grand Prince Nikolaevich believed to be the next direction of the Dmanians' attack. He therefore advised the Tsar to be vigilant and to redeploy troops to defend the Polish region.)
Moreover, in Earth's history, Germany and Austria-Hungary fought far less well on the southern front than in this world. Historically, the Battle of Gorize only resulted in the annihilation of the 3rd Army of Russia due to the lack of timely follow-up in the encirclement and annihilation efforts. However, in episodes 8 and 11, the entire army escaped the encirclement.

In this dimension, it was only because of Lelouch's butterfly effect and various amplification operations that the result of "only annihilating one army group" was expanded to "annihilating almost an entire army group in one go, with only half an army group and five divisions escaping in episode 8".

Therefore, in this plane, the Lussa people's anxiety about whether the Polish salient would be cut off is greater than that of Earth at the same time. Defending against it would also be much more difficult.

On Earth, the Russo people, in an effort to preserve Poland, amassed a force of over 200 million in 1915, but ultimately lost, suffering 150 million casualties.

The Demanians' attack bases on the northern front are now exactly the same as in previous historical periods. However, the situation is much better for their attack bases on the southern front—in Earth's history, the southern front could only penetrate northward from Rzeszów, but now it can penetrate northward from Lviv.

Lviv is more than 100 kilometers east of Rzeszów, and its roads and infrastructure for heading north are better, making it more difficult to defend against an offensive launched from Lviv to the north.

The defensive line is longer, the enemy is stronger, and the conditions for the enemy's offensive routes are also better.

So, if we calculate it this way, how could we save Poland without gathering 300 million people?

But when the number came out of Grand Duke Nikolayevich's mouth, the Tsar was almost startled and jumped up.

"Gather 3 million men to defend Poland? Uncle, are you crazy! Do you know how many troops the Empire can mobilize right now? There are only a little over 5 million left. You want the Empire to put 60% of its total military force in Poland? Don't you care about the rest of the country?" Nicholas II became angrier and angrier, feeling that his uncle was too unreliable.

What is he trying to do? Does he really want to amass military power and become influential?
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P.S.: I was too busy over the weekend and ran out of drafts. I'm posting 4,000 words this morning, and I'll slowly add the second update this afternoon and evening.

(End of this chapter)