My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 4 From a Death to a Life

Zhuge Jin finally made up his mind to help Liu Bei with his plans with all his strength, and no longer worried about saying the wrong thing.

But war is a matter of great importance to a country, a matter of life and death. How can we not pay attention to it?

Before making formal plans, it is very necessary to conduct a thorough investigation of the enemy's and our own strengths.

Only by knowing yourself and the enemy can you fight without danger.

So Zhuge Jin first asked Liu Bei about every detail: the current strength of the enemy and our army, their deployment, the generals in command, and the food and grass situation.

Liu Bei was not clear about some of these data, such as the food and grass situation of Yuan Shu's army.

He told Liu Bei everything he knew.

Now is a matter of life and death, and there is no room for hiding anything.

After just a few minutes, Zhuge Jin roughly figured out:
At present, the total strength of Liu Bei's garrison in Guangling County is about 13,000 to 14,000 people.

Yuan Shu's army mobilized about 40,000 people, three times as many as Liu Bei's army, not counting Yuan Shu's reserve troops in the rear.

The people under Yuan Shu's rule may be living in poverty and desolation today, but the size of his army is definitely not to be underestimated.

Especially since he had been promoted to the high position of Rear General many years ago, and before the Dong Zhuo Rebellion broke out, he used his power to bring out some of the elite northern troops of the imperial court, so his family background could not be said to be very thick.

In comparison, even Yuan Shao and Cao Cao had not been assigned any of the central army units of the Han Dynasty at that time; they all started out by relying on local armed forces.

The only strong troops in the Xuzhou army that could compete with Yuan Shu's former northern army were the Danyang troops.

Unfortunately, the number of Danyang soldiers directly under Liu Bei never exceeded four or five thousand for many years.

However, the main force of the Danyang troops left by Tao Qian was still led by Cao Bao.

This time, as Zhang Fei killed Cao Bao, Cao Bao's former subordinates surrendered to Lu Bu and offered Xiapi.
The Danyang soldiers who stayed behind to guard the home were completely out of Liu Bei's control.

All Liu Bei could mobilize now were three thousand Danyang soldiers, one thousand Youzhou cavalry brought from his hometown, and ten thousand ordinary soldiers from Xuzhou.

The situation is extremely serious.

……

"That's the situation. We have 12,000 soldiers stationed in Huaiyin County, and another 2,000 scattered in Haixi County and other places in the rear.

However, Yuan's 40,000 troops were unable to gather in one place due to difficulties in supplying food and fodder, so they advanced in two routes.

The main force consisted of more than 25,000 people, who came from Xuyi along the Huai River. The commander-in-chief was Ji Ling, and his other generals included Liang Gang and Le Jiu.

Another group of more than 15,000 people went eastward along the Yangtze River from Lujiang County to Guangling County in Yangzhou, entered the Han Canal and headed north. The general in charge was Liu Xun, and he had other generals including Lei Bo and Chen Lan.

Today, Ji Ling has set up camp in the west of the city and is harassing the north of the city with his cavalry.

Because of the long and circuitous route, it is estimated that Liu Xun's troops will take several days to reach Huaiyin. If nothing unexpected happens, they will most likely set up camp in the south of the city and threaten our southeast flank.

I originally planned to rely on the strong city of Huaiyin to hold out, and wait for the old soldiers of Ji Ling and Liu Xun to tire out before counterattacking. But now the food and grass for Xia Pi's reinforcements have been cut off, and there is less than a month's worth of food left in the city.

Moreover, once Yuan's army also learned that Xiapi was captured by Lu Bu, their morale would surely be high. Our army could not wait for Yuan Shu's morale to drop, and there was no hope of a stalemate.

Gongyou and Zizhong advised me to seize the opportunity in the next few days and concentrate my forces before Liu Xun arrives. If I can defeat Ji Ling first, there may be a chance of a turnaround. What do you think, sir?"

Liu Bei explained in great detail, and Zhuge Jin listened very carefully.

These details were not recorded in either "Records of the Three Kingdoms" or "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" that he read in his previous life. He could only learn and analyze them through Liu Bei.

Zhuge Jin also looked carefully at the map for the place names mentioned by Liu Bei to confirm the correspondence between ancient and modern times.

During the Eastern Han Dynasty, "Guangling County" was the later Yangzhou City, and "Huaiyin County" corresponded to Huai'an City.

Guangling County was still in the hands of Liu Yao last year, but was later captured by Sun Ce and handed over to Yuan Shu.

Including Hailing next to Guangling County, which corresponds to Taizhou in later generations, was also conquered by Sun Ce to help Yuan Shu.

Liu Xun's troops were attacking northward along the Grand Canal of later times. (Note: A map will be attached at the end of this chapter)

After Zhuge Jin thoroughly understood the details of the troop deployment, he thought about it for a long time before carefully giving his opinion:

“Excuse me, but I think this is a rather inappropriate strategy.

The general should not have taken advantage of the time difference between Ji Ling's arrival and Liu Xun's absence and forcibly organized a counterattack.

Instead, we should consider blocking the four gates of Huaiyin, holding out for a few more days, and then attacking when the enemy is slack."

When Liu Bei heard this, a look of disbelief flashed across his face instinctively.

But Zhuge Jin had already predicted it once. After Liu Bei calmed down, he controlled his emotions and decided to trust him again. He asked sincerely:
"Why do you say that, sir? Since ancient times, military tactics have always sought to concentrate forces and defeat the enemy one by one.

Our army is small in number, shouldn't we seize the opportunity when the enemy has not yet assembled and is weaker when divided?"

Zhuge Jin took his time, picked up a pen, pointed to a few points on the map and explained:

"Xia Pi is 240 li away from Huaiyin. It can be reached by going downstream along the Si River. Captain Zhang, when did you lose Xia Pi? And when did you rush back to Huaiyin to report the news?"

Zhang Fei, who was standing by, was suddenly asked and felt a little embarrassed.

He had just gotten into trouble and was too embarrassed to face anyone. Even if he was questioned by a commoner, he could only bow his hands and answer obediently:
"I discovered Cao Bao's misconduct in the middle of the night the day before yesterday, and had to lead the troops to kill him. I only regret that my prestige is not enough and I usually don't win the support of the Danyang soldiers.

After Cao Bao's death, Xu Dan and other Danyang military generals were afraid that we would purge them, so they refused to defend the Baimen Tower and delayed until Lu Bu arrived from Xiaopei and took them into the city.

I tried to fight them, but I was outnumbered and was forced to flee before noon.

After another day and night of running, we arrived in Huaiyin just at nightfall."

Zhang Fei told the story in great detail, and from his account, we can also hear some points that are worth revising:
The historical Zhang Fei's abandonment of Xiapi had nothing to do with "making mistakes due to drinking and whipping Lu Bu's father-in-law".

Cao Bao was not Lu Bu's father-in-law at all. He was just dissatisfied with Liu Bei's rule, so he spontaneously wanted to take the opportunity to rebel.

Zhang Fei's fault was mainly that after discovering the rebellion, he failed to suppress the other former Danyang generals with thunder-like means in time, but it had nothing to do with drinking and beating people.

Zhuge Jin didn't care much about these details. After getting the key details he wanted from Zhang Fei's statement, he immediately turned to Liu Bei to explain:

"Captain Zhang lost Xia Pi yesterday morning, and now he has arrived here. This shows that the two places are too close to each other. A person with a fast horse and a person with a slow horse cannot create a big time difference.

Therefore, I estimate that if Ji Ling is faster, he will get the news in the second half of the night.

In this way, their morale will surely be high, and if our army wants to attack again, Ji Ling will fight to the death.

Moreover, this will strengthen his confidence and make him conclude that the sneak attack on Xia Pi was real and it was not false information deliberately spread by our army, which is why our army is eager to fight.

In contrast, if our army does not take action, Ji Ling might even become suspicious and seek confirmation, worrying that the so-called "loss of Xia Pi" is a ploy to lure the enemy into showing weakness, or is false news based on hearsay.

He might be suspicious in the first few days, but when Liu Xun joins him in a few days, their vigilance will be relaxed to the extreme.

After all, according to the common sense of military tactics, before they have joined forces, the general dare not take the initiative to fight or raid the camp, so how can he attack after they have successfully joined forces? At that time, the general can take advantage of their slackness and do the opposite, and there may be a glimmer of hope. This is the so-called military tactics of "make the real when the real is fake, and make the fake when the real is fake."

Liu Bei listened quietly without interrupting, but just pulled the moustache on his lips with such force that it was almost pulled off.

After listening to this, Sun Qian pondered over it again and again. He felt that this plan was too risky and he could not see any benefits. He said worriedly:

"It makes sense that you're worried that Ji Ling might be on guard.

But just for such a small difference in psychological morale, delaying it for a few more days may not lead to too many changes. Isn't it too not worth it?

Our army is already short of food and supplies. Even if we defeat the enemy in this battle, we will not be able to get supplies immediately.

They had to move their troops to Haixi County in the rear, or forcibly capture some grain storage base of Yuan Shu's army, in order to completely overcome the life-and-death crisis.

My lord, you must reserve enough food and fodder for these follow-up strategies, otherwise even if you win the battle temporarily, the army will run out of food and collapse.

Moreover, it was very difficult to conceal the bad news of the surprise attack on Xia Pi from our soldiers.

It is possible to block it for one or two days, but if you want to block it for four or five days or even longer, mistakes may arise.

Once the bad news leaks out, the army's morale will collapse, and there will be no chance for them to fight to the death."

When Sun Qian expressed his concerns, Zhuge Jin did not interrupt him. Instead, he very gracefully took a pen and made some simple notes on a piece of scrap paper to summarize the other party's arguments.

After analyzing it clearly, Zhuge Jin stretched out a finger in an orderly manner:
"I will address the concerns you raised one by one, starting with the issue of military rations.

You also said that to ensure that the army does not collapse, it is not enough to just win the current battle. We must also turn the army to Haixi, or forcefully attack a grain storage stronghold of the Yuan army.

So, may I ask, how much grain is left in Haixi County? If the army goes there, how long will it last?"

Sun Qian was a member of the Household Department, and he answered this question immediately:

"Haixi is located in a remote area at the mouth of the Huai River. It is not a place that is necessarily fought over by military strategists. Usually, there are only a few thousand troops stationed there, so there is no special storage of food...

The surplus food there should be enough for the local garrison to eat for three to five months. If the main force goes there, the number of people will increase tenfold, and it will probably only take half a month."

"This is just a drop in the bucket. The army will consume more than half of it on the way back and forth."

Zhuge Jin pointed out very decisively, "So, in fact, we only have one option, that is, after winning the field battle, we must capture another grain storage base of the Yuan army as a foundation. There is no other way."

This time, Sun Qian did not hesitate and nodded helplessly.

Zhuge Jin continued to press: "So where do you think we should choose this enemy's grain storage area that we must attack?"

Sun Qian was stunned and couldn't answer immediately.

He thought seriously for a while, looked at the map again and again, and then said solemnly:

"Only the west and south of our army are Yuan Shu's territory. If we can defeat the enemy in a field battle, the follow-up is nothing more than following the enemy's path to kill them.

Therefore, there was no third option: either to retake Xuyi, where Ji Ling sent his troops, or to retake Guangling County, where Liu Xun sent his troops.

However, our army had just abandoned Xuyi in an orderly manner a few days ago. There was no surplus food in the city, and Ji Ling's own military rations had to be transported from Huailing further upstream.

However, Guangling County, where Liu Xun sent his troops, was captured by Sun Ce from Liu Yao last year and then handed over to Yuan Shu. Liu Xun should have some savings there.

Therefore, counterattacking Guangling County and seizing the local surplus food to feed the troops should be the only way for our army to survive."

Sun Qian and others had not originally thought so far ahead. They just wanted to win the urgent battle in front of them and take it one step at a time.

At this moment, under Zhuge Jin's step-by-step guidance in thinking, they began to take a longer-term view and were able to look at the problem from a global perspective.

It was not until Liu Bei heard this that he finally confirmed:
It is not enough to just win the upcoming field battle.

The subsequent field battle and the siege battle to retake a grain storage point will be integrated into one battle.

It would only make sense if he won both games. Losing either one would be enough to cause him to completely lose his army and territory.

So when he makes a decision, he must also consider all aspects.

We must never use short-sighted and stupid moves that would make the first sub-battle relatively easy to win, but would make the second sub-battle more difficult.

Zhuge Jin and the others digested and absorbed these twists and turns before continuing to analyze in an orderly manner:

“From this, we can see that if we follow Gongyou’s strategy and attack Ji Ling first tomorrow, even if we succeed in defeating them one by one, what good will that do?
Once Ji Ling was defeated, would Liu Xun, who was at least two days away from Huaiyin, dare to continue marching north?
By then Liu Xun would certainly become a frightened bird and would immediately retreat to Guangling County and defend the county behind closed doors!
What should we do then? Chase them to Guangling City and attack them?

We only have 20 days' worth of rations, and we'll have to build siege equipment when we get there. How long will it take to capture the city?

Once the food runs out during a siege, the army will immediately collapse!

I advise the general not to be impatient and to wait until Liu Xun and Ji Ling have successfully joined forces and their vigilance has dropped to the lowest point before taking action.

Only in this way will there be a chance to weaken Ji Ling and Liu Xun at the same time in a field battle.

Then he would chase after the remaining troops of Liu Xun and seize Guangling, or he could devise another plan and send out a surprise attack to seize the city during the chaos.

Isn't this much more reliable than directly attacking a fortified city with sufficient troops?"

After Zhuge Jin said this, Liu Bei and Sun Qian finally understood everything.

They had to admit that if they only looked at the first of the two goals, "field battle" and "seizing food", Zhuge Jin's strategy was indeed risky compared to Sun Qian's.

But if these two goals are evaluated as a whole and must be achieved in their entirety, then Zhuge Jin's plan is already much more brilliant than Sun Qian's.

Since Liu Xun was a target that they had to severely damage or even eliminate, it would obviously be much easier to eliminate him in a home field battle outside Huaiyin County than to eliminate him in an away siege in Guangling County.

Liu Bei's expression changed several times, and then fixed on determination.

He took a few deep breaths, then suddenly drew out his two swords and chopped off the two corners of the desk with two slashes.

"I have made up my mind! I will follow Ziyu's plan! For the next few days, we will close the city gates, prohibit all internal and external communication, and block all news. Anyone who dares to spread rumors of Xia Pi's mistakes will be executed immediately!
Wait for Liu Xun to go north and meet up with Ji Ling! Then we can go all out and fight him to the death! "

Seeing this, Zhuge Jin could finally breathe a sigh of relief: It seemed that he was finally going to start changing history.

According to the "Records of the Three Kingdoms", the Liu-Yuan War ended with "the army collapsing when it marched south to attack Guangling."

Inferring from this, Liu Bei in history should have also won the battle of Huaiyin with Ji Ling.

Otherwise, he wouldn't even have the chance to touch the city wall of Guangling County later, and he would be finished if he lost the first battle.

It's just that Liu Bei in history, because he was poor and had short-sighted ambitions, had no conditions to see too far ahead, and had no conditions to plan the overall situation. In the end, he was slowly destroyed in the process of seeking stability.

Since Zhuge Jin knew that the result of playing it safe would be death, he would of course encourage Liu Bei to take a big gamble.

Although the risk is still huge, maybe you can fight to the death and have a chance of survival, or even a fifty-fifty chance.

This is better than "even if you win the first battle, you can only wait for death in the second battle."

(End of this chapter)