My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 375: Everything is as expected by Mr.

On the third day of June in the eighth year of Jian'an, in Hefei, inside the mansion of the General of Chariots and Cavalry, which had not yet been officially established.

Zhuge Liang and Pang Tong were summoned by Liu Bei and hurried over. As soon as they entered the room, they saw Liu Bei pacing back and forth in the hall with a happy face, pointing at a few letters on the table and saying with great joy:
"I never thought that Ziyi and Gongjin could defeat an enemy force of 50,000 with only 8,000 soldiers. After this battle, who among the princes of the world dares to say that the southern troops cannot defeat the soldiers of the Central Plains! This achievement should be rewarded heavily and the whole army should celebrate together."

Zhuge Liang and Pang Tong had just learned the news of Bohai County's great victory in rescuing Yuan Tan on their way here, so they were not too surprised.

Zhuge Liang came to Hefei with Liu Bei, and Pang Tong was sent by Liu Bei last year to help Zhao Yun coordinate the defense of Huainan.

At this moment, Pang Tong also congratulated Liu Bei with great joy, and said some very encouraging words about the outlook and deductions. For a while, the atmosphere was very harmonious and celebratory.

Zhuge Liang showed no expression, perhaps out of modesty and caution. After all, his brother was the one who planned the battle behind the scenes, and he didn't want to brag about his own family.

Liu Bei asked someone to bring some good wine, and regardless of the fact that it was not mealtime, he directly pulled Zhuge Liang and Pang Tong together, and each drank three bowls. Then he wiped his mouth, took Zhuge Jin's letter and asked:

"Your brother said in the letter that he estimated that Lü Kuang would be retreating with the remnants of Yuan Shang's army that was besieging Bohai County. On the way back, they would certainly be intercepted by Cao's army, which was advancing rapidly and lightly equipped. Given Lü Kuang's weak will, he would surely collapse at the first blow and would most likely surrender to Cao. What do you think?"

Zhuge Liang thought for a moment and said, "It is indeed very possible. When I was sent as an envoy to Yuan Shao five years ago, I met Lü Kuang and Lü Xiang several times. I also inquired about the reputation of the generals in Hebei. The two Lüs like to flatter the powerful."

Liu Bei nodded and said, "That's good. Ziyu asked Ziyi and Gongjin to cut the Gordian knot and kill them. This can be regarded as stopping the loss, so that fewer Yuan Shang troops will surrender to Cao in the future. However, I always feel that Ziyu's letter is a bit too deliberate. What's the point of him emphasizing this?
I have known him for seven years and I know him too well. It doesn't seem like he wrote this on purpose. Could it be that... Alas, is he worried that his achievements will overthrow the emperor? What's the point? Could I be suspicious of meritorious officials like the Emperor Gao?

Emperor Guangwu didn't have to do this back then. I will naturally have to be more tolerant than Emperor Guangwu in the future, so as to live up to the confidence that the Han Dynasty brought to the world for four hundred years. Otherwise, wouldn't my Liu family's ancestors have been emperors for four hundred years in vain? Haven't they built up their confidence in their descendants in four hundred years? Are they still worried about whether the people of the world will accept the Liu family's rule? There's no need."

Zhuge Liang was not sure what to say, but he still expressed his gratitude to Liu Bei for his trust.

Moreover, Liu Bei's words were somewhat presumptuous. He only said this behind closed doors, with only Zhuge Liang and Pang Tong present. If there were other outsiders present, he would never say this.

Pang Tong, who was standing by, saw that Zhuge Liang was a little embarrassed, so he quickly helped to analyze the situation from a positive perspective, and even came up with an idea to take advantage of the situation:

"My lord, why do you care about these things? Perhaps Ziyu made a firm prediction in the letter that Lü Kuang would surrender to Cao Cao. He had no intention of proving himself, but just wanted to take advantage of the situation."

Liu Bei was stunned: "When he delivered the victory report, he also brought this letter all the way across the country. Could it be a trick? How is the trick?"

Pang Tong: "It's very simple. You can show this letter to the civil and military officials in Hefei and tell them in advance that although Hebei is thousands of miles away from Huainan, the situation in Hebei is also under your control and within the calculations of Ziyu and Kongming.

It was planned to destroy Lü Xiang, and it was also planned that Lü Kuang would surrender to Cao. Perhaps Lü Kuang's surrender to Cao could be a step for our army to delay Cao's army, a bait for our army to lure Cao's army to send more main forces to Hebei in order to win a quick victory. Then our army would mobilize troops in Huainan and Xuzhou, and the Cao army we encountered would be even weaker...

Anyway, as long as the prediction is accurate, the morale of our army will surely be high. Only when the whole army believes that everything is in our plan, they will be more brave and vigorous in the subsequent battles.

By analogy, we can draw inferences about other situations, such as spreading news in advance to Cao Ren's defense zone in Huaibei, and Cai Yang and Li Tong's defense zones in Huaixi, saying that Lü Xiang has been destroyed and Lü Kuang will definitely surrender to Cao, but this will also tie up more of Cao Cao's troops to monitor Lü Kuang.

When they really get the news, they will be terrified and realize that everything has been predicted by the enemy. War is all about people's hearts and confidence. One side feels that they are in control, while the other side feels that they have been tricked and is worried. The momentum of one side is weakened before the other side even starts fighting, which is no less effective than tens of thousands of soldiers. "

Liu Bei had fought many battles, so how could he not understand this truth?
Sometimes, it doesn’t matter what the strategy itself is. On the battlefield, as long as you can make your own side believe that “the enemy has fallen into a trap” and make the enemy also believe that “we have fallen into a trap”, this mentality itself is worth a fortune.

The news that the enemy had calculated your plan correctly was in itself a very uncomfortable thing.

After hearing Pang Tong's explanation, Liu Bei felt much better and no longer worried about Zhuge Jin's motives.

It was at this point that Zhuge Liang did not need to avoid suspicion and took the initiative to suggest: "My lord, I think it is better to be a little cautious. Firstly, the news of your arrival in Hefei has not yet spread. If you take action too early, it will easily alert Cao's army.

Secondly, you can spread the victory report to your own people first, and let everyone know that my brother has an attached memorial sent with the victory report. As for the contents of my brother's letter, there is no need to announce it now. You can wait until you confirm that Lü Kuang has surrendered to Cao, and then take it out.

In this way, as long as the seal is intact, the generals can verify it with their own eyes at the oath-taking banquet to confirm that the letter is authentic, which can also boost morale. If the prediction is inaccurate, there is no need to take out the letter. "

Liu Bei couldn't help but smile when he heard this: "You are too cautious. Sir, are you not sure about your brother? I believe in Ziyu's prediction too much. Don't think it's so blunt and unrestrained, but in the end, it's like an antelope hanging on a horn, there are traces to follow, and it's definitely not a wild guess."

Zhuge Liang: "It's not that I'm not sure, it's just in case, just in case."

Liu Bei sneered and nodded heavily, "Well, Kong Ming has always been cautious. When your mother said that your talent was ten times that of Zi Yu, perhaps she was also partial to being cautious.

In my opinion, Tzuyu is more resourceful than you. But you are also more cautious and careful than Tzuyu. You two brothers have your own strengths. I will follow your advice this time."

Liu Bei was also an open-minded person. He did not dwell on it any longer and spread the preliminary news and good news that day so that the generals in Hefei and Shouchun could rejoice together and boost morale.

Then they stepped up preparations for sending troops to Huaixi and Pengcheng, waiting for Cao's army to sink a little deeper into the quagmire before taking decisive action.

Finally, he did not forget to keep an eye on the latest situation in Hebei and find out the latest progress of Cao’s army in a timely manner.

……

Over the next ten days, the situation turned out just as Zhuge Jin had expected.

In fact, while Liu Bei was discussing with Zhuge Liang and Pang Tong, Cao's army and Lü Kuang, who was coming back to support Yecheng, had already started fighting on the battlefield in Hebei.

When Liu Bei learned the news of the victory in the Battle of Nanpi, seven days had passed since the end of the Battle of Nanpi.

During these seven days, in the first two or three days, Lu Kuang gathered the remaining soldiers in Dongguan County and transported military equipment and supplies, hoping to bring more people and things back.

However, Taishi Ci and Zhou Yu did not give him this opportunity. Only three days after the siege of Nanpi was lifted, Taishi Ci cleaned up the battlefield, transferred the prisoners, reorganized the army, and then launched a counterattack against Dongguan County according to Zhou Yu's advice.

Zhou Yu also observed that Lü Kuang stayed in Dongguang for a long time and did not leave, which made him suspicious and made such a suggestion.

Taishi Ci did not understand at first why they were so eager to counterattack a small county. He felt that although his side still had strength to fight again, after all, they had fewer troops than the enemy, and there were so many prisoners to be reformed. Once the main force attacked and the rear was unstable, the prisoners would make trouble, wouldn't it be a loss of the greater for the less?
But Zhou Yu told him: "These prisoners have been screened. Most of them are civilians and new soldiers. Many of them were originally under Yuan Tan's rule. For them, it doesn't matter who they work for. If I leave 2,000 people to guard the prisoners, there will be no chaos.

Although Dongguang also has a good city defense, Lü Kuang's soldiers are not willing to fight and are eager to return to the rescue. The two days of delay are just to gather more remaining soldiers. As long as we bluff and put on the illusion that "if you don't leave, we have the ability to swallow up your entire army", we will definitely scare Lü Kuang away.

Moreover, Lü Kuang is staying in Dongguang and is reluctant to leave. I suspect there must be a huge amount of food and supplies in the city, perhaps originally for the long-term use of the army besieging Nanpi. He is reluctant to leave now, so he gathers the remaining soldiers and rushes to transport things. If we take it quickly, although we won't get many people and prisoners, we will definitely get a large amount of stored food, and we don't have to worry about the food for the 30,000 or 40,000 prisoners in the next few months."

Taishi Ci thought it made sense, so he followed the plan, bluffing and siege, pretending that Liu Bei's army had reinforcements arriving and that Yuan Tan was taking the opportunity to send more troops to defeat the fallen.

Lü Kuang was frightened, and he no longer cared about gathering more remaining soldiers or taking care of supplies. He abandoned the city and headed straight for Qinghe County in the rear. He only brought a dozen days of food with him, which was only enough for the journey. Taishi Ci almost won a county town with a bloodless counterattack. Although the city itself was not important, it also won a buffer support point for Nanpi County in the upper reaches of the Zhang River.

This will prevent the area around Nanpi City from being directly exposed to enemy forces in the future, and prevent thousands of acres of fertile farmland from being developed.

After entering the city, Taishi Ci opened the warehouse and found that it was indeed full of more than 200,000 dan of grain, enough to feed an army of 50,000 to 60,000 for three months.

If it were peacetime and they could save food and only give two meals of porridge a day, the 40,000 prisoners, as well as Taishi Ci and Zhou Yu's own 8,000 soldiers, would be enough to feed them for half a year.

The food supply for those tens of thousands of mouths was immediately satisfied, allowing them to survive until winter.

It is now the beginning of June. If we rush to plant any staple food, it will be too late to harvest it this year. But we can still sow some bean seeds and plant some beans casually. Even if the net income per acre of land is only a few dozen kilograms of beans, it can supplement one or two months. The remaining shortfall can be made up by transporting grain from the rear.

……

After Lu Kuang abandoned the city of Dongguang and fled, he became even more embarrassed along the way.

Of the 50,000 to 60,000 troops he and Lu Xiang brought with them, there are now only about 13,000 left with him. During the withdrawal from Dongguan County alone, at least 2,000 people were separated - these people were not necessarily annihilated by Taishi Ci's troops, most of them simply deserted while running.

With morale so low, it would be impossible to save the army.

Lu Kuang traveled lightly against the Zhang River in the southwest at a speed of eighty miles a day. He passed Guangchuan on one day, Zaoqiang on the second day, and arrived at Dongwu on the third day, thus entering the territory of Qinghe County.

It was already the third day of June, the same day that Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang in the south received the news of Zhuge Jin's victory.

But Lu Kuang's good days soon came to an end.

On the same day that Lu Kuang entered Qinghe County, Cao's army in the south had broken through from the west of Wei County where Yecheng was located and captured Guantao. They were about to make a brief rest before continuing northward to attack Guangzong.

Two days later, on the fifth day of June, when Lü Kuang returned to Guangzong, he ran head-on into the main force of Cao's army under the banner of Cao Hong.

Lu Kuang was a man of some insight and did not march recklessly. He still sent out scouts to search. So when the two armies were still thirty miles apart, he received the news and hurriedly slowed down, wanting to enter Guangzong City and hold its ground.

At that time, Guangzong City was still under the control of Yuan Shang's army. If Lu Kuang decided to defend the city, he could still rely on the advantages of the city.

However, shortly after Lu Kuang entered Guangzong to avoid the enemy, another group of Cao's troops made a detour from the flank and completely surrounded Guangzong.

Later, that Cao army also raised the banner of Xiahou Yuan. It did not attack the city for a while, but just displayed its flags to boost military prestige. It sent people to shout to Lu Kuang that he had been surrounded by Cao Gong's 100,000 troops.

Lu Kuang was confused and uncertain, and wanted to wait and see what happened.

But in the following days, soldiers in the city continued to flee and surrender.

Cao's army also used various strategies to attack the enemy's mind. First, they had people shouting day and night, spreading the word that the army from Guangzong and the lower reaches of the river and the north would never have a good end and would be defeated in every battle.

It is said that twenty years ago, Zhang Jue raised an army in Jizhou. Lu Zhi and Huangfu Song led the imperial army from the south to attack him. They defeated Zhang Jue's main force in Guangzong, and eventually Zhang Jue was defeated and killed.

Ten years ago, it was Yuan Shao's army that fought the Battle of Jie Bridge here (Jie Bridge is in Guangzong County. Anping County and Qinghe County are separated by the Zhang River. There is a bridge across the Zhang River in Guangzong County, which is the boundary bridge between the two counties). It was here that Yuan Shao's general Qu Yi defeated the White Horse Volunteers who invaded from the north.

Therefore, in the battlefield of Guangzong, the army coming from the lower reaches of the north will be defeated in every battle!
These stories are not too far away from now. Some old men who have served in the Hebei Army for ten or twenty years have even experienced them personally. Cao Jun's summary and publicity naturally caused chaos in Lu Kuang's army.

Later, Cao's army sent people to tie up several messengers and went to the city, deceiving Lü Kuang that they were messengers sent by Yuan Shang to urge reinforcements. They wanted to punish Lü Kuang and Lu Xiang for delaying the rescue and for keeping their troops to themselves.

The Cao army's scolding generals were very confident that it was written in Yuan Shang's urging letter: If Lü Kuang and Lü Xiang had set out on their return journey immediately after receiving the order, they should have reached Yecheng by now. Why were they delaying in Guantao and Guangzong?
In a nutshell, it is to try to portray Yuan Shang's urging tone as similar to Chongzhen's urging Wu Sangui to return to save Beijing in later generations.

Of course, there are definitely no time travelers in Cao's army, and they don't know about the deeds of Chongzhen and Wu Sangui. It can only be said that all the wise men have the same thoughts and feel that such words and tone are the most likely to anger the generals who come back to help and make them passive and lazy.

These psychological warfare strategies of Cao's army were all the result of Jia Xu, the military strategist accompanying Xiahou Yuan. Xiahou Yuan was in Xuzhou last year, and his main strategist was Guo Jia. But Guo Jia broke his leg last year, so he simply stayed in Xuzhou to assist Zhang He.

When Xiahou Yuan arrived in Hebei, he naturally temporarily employed Jia Xu, who was more familiar with the situation in Hebei and had been working here for the past two years, as his military adviser.

As for Xun You, he followed Cao Cao himself and served in the main battlefield of Yecheng, with a clear division of labor.

Under Jia Xu's psychological strategy, Lü Kuang finally had a way out and could say to his conscience, "You are unkind, so I am unjust."
After struggling for three days, Lu Kuang finally declared that Yuan Shang was unjust, abused his loyal ministers, and left no way for anyone to survive. For the lives of the soldiers of the three armies, he could not bear to see everyone die in vain, so he had to open the city and surrender.

In fact, he was not idle during the three days of struggle. On the surface, he pretended to want to be a loyal minister of the Yuan family for a few more days, but in reality he was negotiating the terms of surrender and treatment with Cao Cao.

Xiahou Yuan could not make his own decisions on this matter, and it might be to make the performance more realistic, as if he was ready to fulfill it seriously. When Xiahou Yuan first met with Lü Kuang's envoy, he said, "This matter is of great importance, General Xiahou cannot make a decision on his own, and must report it to Cao Gong for a decision."

Three days later, Cao Cao's own messenger rushed from Yecheng on horseback, bringing Cao Cao's handwritten letter, promising that as long as Lü Kuang surrendered, he would appoint Lü Kuang as a general and Marquis of Dongping Pavilion.

You should know that in history, Guan Yu was only granted the title of Marquis Ting and the rank of Lieutenant General after he killed Yan Liang.

Now, a surrendered general, just because he still has some weapons and can surrender with more than 10,000 fresh troops, is directly granted the title of Tinghou. He is on the same level as Guan Yu before the Battle of Guandu in history. What is there to be dissatisfied about?
Zhang He, who surrendered to Cao Cao in the Battle of Guandu, was only a lieutenant general and Marquis of Duting. The rank of Marquis of Duting was lower than that of Marquis of Ting, which had a specific county name, and had two fewer households in the fiefdom!

Lu Kuang's current general rank is similar to that of Guan Yu and Zhang He in history, and his title is slightly higher than Zhang He's. Of course, he was overjoyed and surrendered immediately.

After Xiahou Yuan incorporated Lu Kuang's army, he also took advantage of the chain reaction of his defection and made Lu Kuang the vanguard, just like Zhang Fei used Yan Yan in history, to persuade various places in Qinghe County to surrender.

Soon, all the remaining counties in Qinghe County that were still defending themselves behind closed doors surrendered to Cao.

In just half a month, Cao's army completed the encirclement of Wei County from the southwest to the northeast. Yuan Shang had no reinforcements behind him except for Zhao County, Zhongshan, Changshan and other places far to the north.

Then, Cao Cao took a few days to completely surround Ye City and began to implement his water attack plan.

The news that Lü Kuang had surrendered to Cao and that the entire Qinghe and Anping counties had also surrendered to Cao soon reached Yuan Tan and Liu Bei, proving that Zhuge Jin's previous prediction was indeed accurate.

(End of this chapter)