My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 374: Newcomer, Unexperienced
Faced with Zhuge Jin's cheerful and serious explanation, Lu Su, Xin Pi and others were all convinced.

Especially Xin Pi, he came from Yuan Tan, and had served under Yuan Shao for many years. His contact with the civil and military officials in Hebei was much more in-depth than that of Zhuge Jin or even Zhuge Liang.

After listening to Zhuge Jin's analysis, he reviewed his impressions of Generals Lu Kuang and Lu Xiang over the years, and had to admit that what Zhuge Jin said made sense. Thinking about it carefully, Lu Kuang and Lu Xiang were really the kind of people who would cling to the enemy and sit on the fence.

However, Xin Pi had been observing for so many years and still needed others to remind him and then focus on recalling and pondering before he could think of this.

Zhuge Liang, however, was able to see things more clearly than Xin Pi based on only a few encounters five years ago. Zhuge Jin, on the other hand, had never even met Lü Kuang or Lü Xiang, but was able to make such a judgment based on just chatting with his second brother.

How many times better than me is Brother Zhuge's ability to see through things like seeing through fire?
Xin Pi simply didn't dare to think about this question any further.

I can only say that sometimes the gap between people is greater than that between people and dogs.

However, Xin Pi followed his previous train of thought and thought from another angle, and suddenly thought of a hidden danger, which was about Zhuge Jin.

He had not yet formally submitted to Liu, so he had just found a way to curry favor with Zhuge Jin. He quickly raised his spirits and reminded him, as if offering a treasure:

"All the princes are so good at predicting the future, which is really admirable! People like us in the north have finally realized how far-sighted the wise men in the world are! However, I think that if the princes make such arrangements and act so bluntly, they may give people a chance to criticize them... We have to be careful."

Zhuge Jin's expression did not change at all after hearing this, and he still had that calm smile on his face. It was obvious that he was not frightened by the other party's "strategist's pretentious talk" style.

Even Lu Su's expression changed slightly, and then he reacted. He just showed a playful expression, and his eyes seemed to reveal... sympathy for Xin Pi.

That's right, sympathy.

Only Zhuge Jun, who had the lowest IQ among the crowd, didn't understand the secret, so he played the role of the supporting actor directly and asked Xin Pi: "Oh? I wonder what George thinks my elder brother's actions and arrangements have left behind?"

Xin Pi was a little embarrassed at first. Seeing that no one reacted, he thought he had said something wrong. Fortunately, after a few seconds, Zhuge Jun came to help him. His hesitation dissipated a little, and he quickly added:

"Please think about this, my lords. You think you have seen through Lü Kuang and Lü Xiang's cowardice and flattery. That's because you are very clear-sighted. But how many people in the world have such foresight? In the eyes of outsiders, if General Taishi and Captain Zhou did not annihilate Lü Xiang, Lü Xiang would be able to return with his entire division to join the fight with Cao.

Furthermore, no matter how cowardly Lü Xiang was, he was not cowardly when he fought against General Taishi. After all, he was not cowardly when facing an enemy with only 20% of his own strength. Instead, he dared to use his numbers to defeat the enemy. Now that he has died in battle, it is impossible to prove whether he was cowardly or not, and whether he would surrender if he met Cao.
Therefore, if someone with ulterior motives wants to go to the Lord and the General of Chariots and Cavalry to make trouble, saying: Even if our army only lost more than 2,000 people, and annihilated and subdued 30,000 or 40,000 enemy troops, it would not be a great achievement. Because if we could have avoided fighting, these 30,000 or 40,000 people could have been consumed in a deadly battle with Cao's army. We don't even have to pay the price of these 2,000 people.

At that time, wouldn't it be possible that the general's extraordinary achievement could be far-fetchedly attributed to "Han Xin defeating Qi"? When Han Xin defeated Qi, it was indeed an unprecedented victory, with almost no bloodshed and no losses. But later, someone instigated Emperor Gao, saying that without Han Xin's defeat of Qi, Qi would have surrendered under Li Shiqi's persuasion, so Han Xin's defeat of Qi was a failure. "

Xin Pi felt that his insights were already very profound.

Because no matter how accurate Zhuge Jin's judgment is, it is impossible to prove that a person who has died in battle is actually spineless, and that he died in battle only because he dared to use his numbers to bully the few, not because he really had spine.

No one can prove that something that cannot happen in the future should have happened.

Xin Pi came from the close circle of Yuan Shao and Yuan Tan, and he knew too well how disgusting it was that the civil officials and advisers around the ruler would attack and vie for favor with each other.

Thinking about the bloody lessons learned over the years between the Ju Shou, Tian Feng, Shen Pei, Feng Ji faction, Guo Tu, Xu You, the Xin family faction, and other miscellaneous factions of Yuan Shao's advisers who had been pulling each other's legs, how could Xin Pi not be frightened?
People from Yuan Shao's family were fed up with the civil servants hindering each other.

However, even after he said this, Zhuge Jin remained indifferent.

Lu Su finally laughed out loud, and couldn't help but patted Xin Pi's shoulders twice. "I've always heard that there are intrigues among Yuan Benchu's subordinates, and today I believe it! George, I have a message for you. When you come to my master's account in the future, put these worries aside! It will not do you any good!
When working in the Yuan family, you may have to consider these dirty constraints, but there is no such thing in the General of Chariots and Cavalry's shogunate! Ziyu and Kongming are the ones who have the power to rule the world, and the General of Chariots and Cavalry also trusts his people! As for this kind of temperament, I am not afraid to offend people when I say this: Yuan Benchu is far inferior to it. "

After Lu Su praised the business in this way, Zhuge Jin's expression changed slightly and he coughed lightly:
"Zijing, your perspective is wrong... Is it necessary to raise this issue to the level of who is more trustworthy between the Lord and Yuan Benchu? Even if we just stick to the facts, it is not impossible to prove it:
Aren't you just worried that Lü Xiang is dead, and no one can prove whether he would fight to the death if he were still alive and met Cao Cao? What's so difficult about this? Isn't Lü Kuang still alive? Although Lü Kuang and Lü Xiang are not the same person, they have similar temperaments. This can be found out by just finding a few surrendered ministers and generals of the Yuan family.

I dare say that if Lü Kuang returns to the east with his remaining troops and is surrounded by Cao's army, he will surrender within five days! If Cao's army attacks quickly and does not choose to surround without fighting, three days will be enough!
It just so happens that when the victory report is sent to Hefei, I can attach this judgment and have someone present it to the lord. We can make a prediction before the battle between Cao's army and Lu Kuang happens. As long as this prediction is correct, it means that my prediction about the dead Lu Xiang is at least 90% accurate. "

Lu Su was also shocked when he heard this. He originally thought that with Liu Bei's trust in the Zhuge brothers, there was no need to worry about such villain's words.

Unexpectedly, Zhuge Jin was more radical than him. Zhuge Jin did not even bother to "consume his trust in Liu Bei's heart". He directly took a bigger gamble and made an additional prediction about Lu Kuang's performance in the later stage.

Then we can regard Lu Kuang’s performance as “Lu Xiang’s control group”.

It is just like when you are doing a biology experiment, you take out a piece of agar and say, "As long as this piece of agar is placed in a Penicillium culture dish, it will become a source of nutrition for the Penicillium, causing the bacteria to multiply wildly."

Then cut off half of the agar block for other uses, and put only half of it into the petri dish. As long as this half is wildly multiplied by bacteria, it can be proved that the discarded half is the same.

Lu Xiang is the part that was cut and thrown away, and Lu Kuang is the part that was thrown into the bacterial culture dish.

Although humans are not bacteria and this experiment is not absolutely scientifically rigorous, their characteristics are indeed similar, which can eliminate many interference factors and reasonable doubts.

After thinking about it, Lu Su couldn't help but exclaimed: "Zi Yu, why are you so radical and insist on making such a firm prediction... If the prediction is wrong, it will shake your reputation of being so meticulous so far."

Zhuge Jin: "It doesn't matter. My lord won't mind if I make a small mistake. Zi Jing, do you still remember that when I first met my lord, it was because of the sentence 'Yide has not abandoned Xiapi, but I don't think he can hold it for long, and people like Lu Bu will become disloyal over time' that made my lord respect me. As long as you can judge people and things carefully, these are nothing."

In Zhuge Jin's view, if "I don't make a prediction, and someone goes to instigate Liu Bei, it will cause the trust level to be -5", and if my prediction is correct, the trust level will not only not decrease, but will increase, and even if the prediction is wrong, there will not be a significantly worse impact.

And you have historical answers to copy, and the success rate is at least 80%. In this case, why not do it?
Since he had said so much, Lu Su would certainly not try to persuade him any further.

Xin Pi, who was standing by, didn't know the story behind it and looked at him inquiringly. At this time, Lu Su would of course help to brag about it, and he proudly explained it to Xin Pi:
"You don't even know this? Then you will have a lot to learn when you become my lord's disciple in the future! Outsiders may not know this secret, but everyone in our army knows it.

It is said that seven years ago, the lord first met Ziyu on the eve of his desperate situation. It was Ziyu who made such a divine prediction. As a result, General Zhang abandoned Xiapi and fled to Huaiyin that night. From then on, the lord and General Guan said: Ziyu's foresight is a hundred times better than that of the champion! As long as he speaks, no one will doubt it. What does it matter this time! "

Upon hearing this, Xin Pi couldn't help but feel fascinated and ashamed of himself.

What advice did I offer just now? I was actually worried that a genius like Zhuge Jin might make a mistake and that it would erode Liu Bei's trust in him... I was just worrying for nothing!

Or maybe it was because he had just come from the Yuan family and was so impressed by the stereotype of civil servants' intrigue that he had some paranoia.

None of this exists for Liu Bei! Brother Zhuge's strategies and predictions are divine!
Zhuge Jin also encouraged others based on the casual conversation they had just had. In the victory report to Liu Bei, he also attached his own analysis and judgment and had someone send it along, just to show his self-esteem.

Lu Su and Xin Pi watched the whole process and became more and more impressed by Zhuge Jin's open-mindedness.

He has never been afraid to do anything or make predictions just because he has held a high position and has the image of a fortune teller.

Zhuge Jin is never afraid of making mistakes, nor is he afraid of having his golden image of being always correct broken.

……

Three days later, this victory report, the letter attached by Zhuge Jin, and his deduction of the new situation in Hebei were all delivered to Liu Bei.

After seeing the good news, Liu Bei's first reaction was naturally overjoyed. He repeatedly expressed his desire to promote Taishi Ci and Zhou Yu to higher positions, just in time to promote them all before the Northern Expedition.

After reading the victory report, he saw Zhuge Jin’s private letter and the part about prophecy and deduction.

He quickly called Zhuge Liang and Pang Tong to share these insights and see how to take advantage of the new situation.

(End of this chapter)