My Peninsula 2007

Chapter 480 Poll
Seeing that the other party only gave a brief response and then fell silent, An Rusong thought for a moment and tentatively asked, "Is it related to today's party appointment and removal meeting?"

This morning, the Grand National Party held a plenary meeting as usual. The reason why this meeting was held as usual is that it was necessary to hold the meeting under the current circumstances. There are two reasons for this: First, the party delegates were just elected and the new leader has taken office. Everyone should pay a visit to him, regardless of their own position.

Second, the parliamentary elections have entered a critical period, which can even be said to be the final stage of the game. At this time, the basic situation of each election has been roughly tallied, and the relevant polling agencies have also compiled the statistics on who is likely to win in which constituency and who has no chance at all in which constituency.

In this situation, the Grand National Party, as the ruling party and a strong contender for the largest party in parliament, naturally needs to make a final adjustment to its campaign resources. This adjustment involves the vital interests of various factions within the party, so it is necessary to hold such a meeting to coordinate the attitudes of all parties.

As a supporter of Lee Min-bo, An Ru-song knew that this meeting had been in preparation for a long time. He even knew that the atmosphere of this meeting would definitely not be good, because by now, the pro-Park and pro-Lee factions within the Grand National Party had reached a point of near-complete confrontation.

Previously, the pro-Park faction rallied centrists, strengthening its own power and directly threatening the pro-Lee faction's influence within the party. However, in recent times, the pro-Park faction has suffered a major defeat in the party's internal competition for National Assembly candidates. This is simply because, as the current head of the Blue House, Lee Min-bok is naturally more capable of providing support to his backers in the National Assembly elections.

Thus, after the list of parliamentary candidates within the party was finalized, Ms. Park became a laughing stock, even earning the nickname "the largest opposition party within the ruling party."

Indeed, this Grand National Party meeting was held under such complicated circumstances, and the main topic of discussion was the election of members of parliament. Imagine how the atmosphere of the meeting could not possibly be harmonious.

Upon hearing An Rusong mention today's party appointment and removal meeting, Bai Jinjun frowned even more deeply. He took a deep drag on his cigarette and exhaled the smoke heavily from his lungs before saying in an extremely troubled tone, "There was no party appointment and removal meeting at all; it was just a village women's street brawl."

After saying that, he raised his right hand, which was holding a cigarette, brushed the hair from his right sideburn with his pinky finger, turned his head toward An Rusong, and said, "See? This is what happened at today's meeting."

Upon closer inspection, An Rusong noticed a cut on the other person's temple. The wound wasn't very deep, so it wasn't bandaged, but the red mark was quite noticeable.

"Who?" he asked almost instinctively.

"Would you believe me if I said I didn't know?" Bai Jinjun said with a wry smile, before adding, "An Shangshou and Jiang Zaidao got into an argument, which led to a group of people starting a fight. I couldn't dodge in time and was hit on the head by a file box that flew from somewhere."

An Rusong remained silent.

In fact, a full-blown brawl wouldn't be surprising, whether in the National Assembly or at a party's internal meeting. The issue lies in the two individuals Baek Geum-joon mentioned: Ahn Sang-soo, born in 1946, is currently the floor leader of the Grand National Party, while Kang Jae-do, born in 1948, is a former prosecutor and former Grand National Party leader.

These two are both over sixty years old and may retire from politics in another two years, yet they still got into a full-blown fight at a party meeting. Are politicians really that physically strong?

An Rusong originally wanted to ask if the purpose of the meeting had been achieved. After all, no matter how heated the meeting was or how serious the differences between the various forces were, as long as everyone could reach a compromise and come up with a result in the end, thus achieving the purpose of the meeting, then the meeting would be considered a success.

But seeing Bai Jinjun's tired and helpless expression, he didn't ask the question. The answer was already obvious, and asking it would only annoy the other person.

"Is there anything I can do for you?" Swallowing back the question that was about to come out of his mouth, An Rusong thought for a moment and then asked a different question.

Although he was the one who called Bai Jinjun first tonight, it was the other person who invited him to meet. In An Rusong's opinion, if Bai Jinjun didn't have something he needed to do, he probably wouldn't have invited him to meet here in such a tired and upset state.

Bai Jinjun didn't speak directly. He took another drag of his cigarette, then picked up the wine glass in front of him and took a sip of red wine, clearly considering how to proceed.

An Rusong understood his meaning, but he wasn't in a hurry. He just sat opposite him and waited quietly.

"Ru Song, do you know Gallup?" After about three or four minutes, Bai Jinjun finally put down his wine glass, looked at An Ru Song, and asked. "Gallup?" An Ru Song was momentarily stunned, then immediately realized what the other person was talking about. "You mean that polling organization?"

Gallup is such a well-known name that anyone who follows politics would likely know him.

Gallup is both a sampling survey method and a survey company—the renowned American Gallup. Similarly, there is a Gallup Korea, which is a branch of the American Gallup company in South Korea.

Gallup Korea was established before 1987, and since its inception, it has consistently conducted polls on South Korean presidential elections without fail. However, the survey results it presents to the public are not particularly convincing.

For example, the polls conducted by this company in the three general elections of 1992, 1997, and 2002 were all quite inaccurate.

Of course, besides Gallup, there are other polling companies of all sizes in South Korea, such as Leespiar, which was founded in 2003. However, this polling company does not engage in political polls; its business focuses on the entertainment industry.

Political polls are very easy to understand. For example, when a general election is approaching, these polling organizations conduct sample surveys among voters and provide data to show the approximate support rate of a certain candidate, their chances of winning, and so on.

Some people say that opinion polls are a kind of metaphysics; sometimes they are accurate, and sometimes they are wildly wrong. They even believe that they have no influence on the actual election results. The only thing they can influence is the odds offered by the betting industry.

However, this statement is actually incorrect. In countries like the US and South Korea, the poll results released by large polling organizations have a significant guiding effect on voters' voting intentions. Even if we don't consider anything else, people have a herd mentality. If the poll results show that a certain candidate has an absolute advantage in support, then some voters who were originally neutral may cast their votes for that candidate.

Therefore, in South Korea, almost every polling agency is backed by one or more political parties.

Just like Gallup Korea, this so-called neutral polling organization actually supports conservatives. Therefore, in the early stages of previous elections, the data collected by its polls generally favored conservatives.

Yes, it is important to emphasize the "initial stage" here. After all, large polling organizations like Gallup still need to pay attention to their reputation. They can falsify poll data, but they cannot falsify it from beginning to end, let alone make the data too outrageous. Therefore, as the election enters its final stage, they often make some adjustments to the poll data.

Therefore, just like the situation in the 2024 US presidential election, in the early to mid-stages of the election, a large number of polling organizations in the United States, including CNN, reported that the competition between Trump and Harris was close, and that the latter even had a certain advantage.

As a result, towards the end of the election, Trump's lead suddenly widened dramatically, and this lead came without any warning. Several swing states abruptly shifted their allegiance to Trump.

Of course, no one can say for sure that there is something fishy going on in polls like this, but what is certain is that it is possible to manipulate polls, even though it is illegal.

“Yes, that Gallup, Gallup Korea,” Baek Jin-jun nodded and said, “What I mean is, if you used NGN’s media advantages to start a polling organization, wouldn’t it be profitable?”

An Rusong remained silent. If asked to answer Bai Jinjun's question directly, his answer would certainly be affirmative.

What is NGN? It is an instant messaging software, or social tool, that helps people transmit information via the internet. If NGN is used as a tool for conducting public opinion polls, it certainly has its own advantages.

However, at this moment, An Rusong was not thinking about whether he could establish a polling organization by relying on NGN, but rather about other issues that arose from this.

The most obvious point is that the idea put forward by Baek Geum-joon was clearly not his own, but rather something he received from Lee Min-bok. This raises the question: Lee Min-bok is already president, and according to the South Korean constitution, a president serves a five-year term and cannot be re-elected.

So why would Lee Min-bok, the current president, want to create a polling agency? Is he just trying to make money through it?
(End of this chapter)