Werewolf: I'm a natural showman, you win easily

Chapter 231 This logical perspective is too tricky
[Player No. 2 please speak]

"Whether player No. 12 is a guard or not depends on whether there is anyone in the back position who jumps against him. If there is, then player No. 12 should be a wolf. If not, then we can only believe that he is a guard."

"At least the information he reported was correct. 1 said he poisoned player 8 last night, but today only player 8 died. So the culprit might be player 1."

"Otherwise, where is the blade? Did Wolf miss his target? Or did Player 8 have the same blade and the same poison? Obviously, neither is likely."

"It can only be that player 1 was hit by a knife, player 8 was poisoned, and player 1 was blocked by a shield. So judging from the death information last night, it is more reliable for player 12 to say that he was guarding player 1 last night."

Player No. 2 is full of doubts about the guard No. 12, but no matter how much he doubts, as long as no one argues with him, he has to believe that he is the guard.

Otherwise, who are the guards?
What's more, the guarding information reported by 12 is correct. 8 was poisoned and died alone last night, which means that the blade is most likely blocked by a shield.

Who was most likely to be stabbed last night? It was undoubtedly player 1. As a guard, it was completely reasonable for player 12 to guard player 1.

He had a very good reason for not defending himself. He said that he was in a position to resist the push, and the wolves would not easily kill him, so he could be used to resist the push.

There is nothing wrong with what he said. No matter he is a guard or a witch, the wolf can set the pace and resist him.

The wolf can fight against him with guards, and can also fight against him with witches. As long as the witch's poison is used up, the wolf will have nothing to worry about.

Therefore, even if player No. 12 is really of high status, the Wolf will not kill him. There is no need to do so. Just set the pace and turn him into a Wolf, and use him to resist the push.

In this case, why should player No. 12 defend himself? He might as well go to the outside position to defend.

"For now, I will temporarily believe that 12 is a guard. Although his words and actions yesterday were very wolf-like, he did, after all, pretend to be a guard, and no one has taken a photo of him yet. I certainly can't say that he is a wolf pretending to be a guard, right?"

"As for the witch Player 1, I can definitely recognize her, so I won't say more."

"Player No. 8 is poisoned. If nothing unexpected happens, No. 8 should be the wolf that escapes. With three wolves, No. 8, No. 9, and No. 10, there is probably only one wolf left on the field."

"This wolf could be player 5, but it could also be one of 3 or 11."

"Why is 5 a wolf? We all talked about it very clearly yesterday. He was leading the rhythm and maliciously speculating on the motives of 6 throwing gold water to 7. The conspiracy is very serious."

"Although his comments and guesses are not completely unreasonable, if 6's bottom card is the wolf, it is indeed possible that he could throw gold water to the police's card to solicit votes and grab the police badge. Unfortunately, 6 is the prophet in this game, and 5 is wrong."

"Oh no, saying that 5th plate is wrong is a good thing. If you think of it in a bad way, he is just maliciously speculating and leading the rhythm, fooling the good people into thinking that 6th plate is a coward."

"Logically, player 5 could be a good guy or a wolf, but the wolf pit is very crowded right now, so we can only choose him as a wolf."

"If I don't click on him as a wolf, I can only play 3 and 11 as wolves, but playing 3 and 11 as wolves is a bit outrageous. I won't mark 5 and 3 as wolves just to avoid clicking on 11 as a wolf."

"Now I can only say that player 5 is a wolf, and a deep-water wolf is opened between 3 and 11."

"Of course, the premise is that player number 12 is a guard. If player number 12 is not a guard, then that's another matter."

"As for who is the wolf between 3 and 11, if it was before, I would have chosen 11 without hesitation, but after listening to what player 3 said, I felt that 3 had a gangster side, because he actually voted for 4, saying that 4 was a desperate wolf who wanted to push player 10 to chase the round."

"This statement is seriously distorted. You know, he was the first one to side with player 6 in the police department. He was able to side with the other player in such a complicated situation. How could he not even be able to tell who is the hunter between player 4 and player 10?"

"I think Player 3 is not confused, he is just pretending to be confused and doesn't want to sell out his teammates."

"Let's wait and see what 3 has to say. Anyway, I don't dare to think he is a good person anymore."

"Today is the round of 5 and 12. If someone jumps guard with player 12, then player 12 will play. If no one jumps guard with player 12, then player 5 will play."

"We are definitely ahead in rounds now. 9 and 10 are definitely out of the game. 6 and 7 are good guys. Player 8 is poisoned and is most likely a wolf. As long as player 7 is not a guard, we will definitely win this round."

"Okay, that's all I want to say about this round. The bottom card is good, and the vote is between 5 and 12. That's it, passed."

[Player No. 3 please speak]

"I'm the witch, player 1 is the wolf, and Yinshui is indeed player 4. Last night I poisoned player 8. The wound definitely couldn't have been on player 1. Judging from the current situation, player 8 is probably poisoned by the same knife."

Player No. 3 stood up and started to dance the witch with player 1, and things became lively.

1 and 3 are the only two people on the police who stand on the opposite side. They were both recognized before, but after yesterday's speech, 3 has a gangster look, but 1 still does his job as usual.

In this case, when 1 and 3 are facing the witch, the good guys basically believe player 1, after all, 1 is more of a good guy than 3.

就像2号玩家说的，警上3都能在4、5站错边的情况下，认下6是预言家，怎么4、10谁是猎人这么简单的事情都分不清了？
There must be something wrong when things are abnormal. There is probably only one reason why Player No. 3 could be confused about such a simple issue: he wants to set the pace and resist the Hunter.

I guess he is reluctant to sell out his teammates directly. It is better to push the hunter out of the game first than to let the wolf teammate be pushed out of the game directly.

"To be honest, before Player 1 changed his role as a witch, I never thought he was a wolf. Whether it was his side or his logic in speaking, I didn't hear any wolfish flavor in his voice."

"But he wore my clothes. This can't be to block the knife, right? I don't think any good person would casually wear a witch's clothes in this situation. Isn't this courting death?"

"Player 1 is pretending to be a witch, so it must be the wolf pretending to be a witch."

"1 and 12 are not on the same side. Since player 1 is a wolf, then guard 12 can be recognized. He said that he was guarding player 1 last night, but when he woke up today, it happened that player 8 died alone. This shows that player 8 has the same knife and the same poison."

"8 is a good guy. There must be two wolves on the field. One is player 1, and the other is probably player 5."

"I can't get 11 for now. Although I can't rule out the possibility that he is a wolf, I can only point player 5 into the wolf pit at this time."

"I know it's hard to convince you that I'm a witch and to fight against Player 1, but if the good guys want to win this game, they have to believe that I'm the witch."

"Yesterday, 4 and 10 were playing against the Hunter. Why didn't I want 4 to be the Hunter and even suggested that he play the normal perspective? It's because I think 4's ideas don't conform to those of a normal good person."

"Player 10 takes over the check and kills the jumping hunter, so he must be a wolf. And 10 is under the alert, so the possibility of 9 and 10 being a double wolf is very small. If it were me, I would not play 9 and 10 double wolves to hit the board."

“既然9、10不太可能是双狼，那我作为猎人为什么不跳出来正视角？即便要盘9、10狼查杀狼打板子，也不能眼睁睁的看着9号玩家被抗推出局吧。”

"As a result, player 4 was able to do such a thing. I was really impressed by him, but at that time I felt that player 4 was a wolf who wanted to take an unconventional approach and resist the hunter."

"Because I'm stuck in a vicious circle, that is, the hunter will not jump out to shoot the 10th player, but the 4th player just doesn't follow the usual path."

"I know that player 4 is extremely hostile to me. He will believe without hesitation that player 1 is a witch and I am a wolf pretending to be a wolf."

"This is what I'm most worried about. If the hunter thinks this way, this game will most likely go too far."

"But I still have some illusions about player 4. He can even check and kill wolves and hit boards with wolves 9 and 10. So he should be able to tell who is the witch between me and player 1, right? If he can't tell, then there's nothing I can do."

"I know that my decision to release Player 4 yesterday was seen as a bad move by you, but I don't think it's my problem, or it's not just my problem."

"Now the outcome depends entirely on Player 4's decision. If he can recognize me as a witch, he will win the game. If he can't recognize me, he will definitely lose."

"Today I will definitely vote for Player 1. That's it. Pass."

[Player No. 4 please speak]

"1 and 3 are dancing witches. Logically, I should pin 3 to the ground and beat him because he is the wolf, but logic tells me that he should be the witch."

"He was the first one to logically side with player 6. I remember it very clearly. He seemed to be trying to compete with player 5."

"At that time, player 5 was on the side of player 9, and mentioned a detail in his speech, that is, player 9 said that he would try his best to check and kill, so as not to find out that the good people of Jinshui were suspicious."

“这一点让5觉得9不像是悍跳狼，而3就跟5针锋相对，说6号玩家也提到了一个发言细节问题，就是验2号玩家奔着查杀去验。”

"For the other boards, 7 is gold and water, 10 is reverse gold, and 2 doesn't need to be checked at all, just mark the wolf and hit it directly. But in order to prevent myself from checking on the wolf brother, 6 deliberately goes to check on the fixed wolf."

"3 I think that a tough wolf wouldn't talk like this. This is also a detail of the speech."

"After I heard what player No. 3 said, I accepted him. Even though he was on a different side from me, I never thought of calling him a wolf."

"At the time, I thought he was a smart-aleck good guy. He always felt that everyone else was on the wrong side, so he was on the right side."

"Yesterday I jumped the hunter, and he actually thought I was a desperate wolf, and wanted to test my gun."

"Once such a statement came out, it was indeed a bit outrageous, but I really don't think he is a wolf, because wolves don't make such outrageous statements."

"Like Player 1, who admitted that I was a hunter and hit 10, he was a wolf pretending to be a wolf. This is in line with the behavior logic of wolves."

When Ren Fan talked like this, everyone could tell that he wanted to recognize Player No. 3 as a witch.

To this end, he also specifically discussed two logical points.

One is that the speech of player 3 on the police station who stood by player 6 was very detailed, and he talked about the key point of player 6 becoming a prophet, which made people feel that it was not like the wolf was playing a back-trick. The second is that if player 3 was a wolf, he would not dare to vote against him. After all, from the wolf's perspective, he is a real hunter. How dare the wolf stroke the hunter's tiger whiskers? He is always trying to please him, for fear that the gun will be pointed at him.

Just because player No. 3 dared to vote for him, Ren Fan felt that player No. 3 could not take the wolf card. Some people might say that player No. 3 was playing against the hunter, but there was no need to do so.

3's identity is so good and he just needs to speak normally. It can be said that no one can defeat him. In this case, he must be out of his mind to allow anyone who pretends to be a hunter to defeat him.

Therefore, even if Player 3's speech and behavior are not good and his logic is very poor, he does not want to play 3 as a wolf.

"In addition to the two logics I just discussed, there is another point that can prove that Player 3 is not a wolf."

"1, 12 are in the front position, one jumps to the guard, and the other jumps to the witch. If the 3 bottom card is the wolf, why would he jump to the witch?"

"If you want to be a tough guy, you should be a tough guard. The difficulty of resisting Player 1 is obviously very different from that of resisting Player 12."

"Player 1 and Player 2 both said that if someone in the back position jumps to guard, the 12th resistance will be eliminated, so Player 3 just needs to jump to guard."

"He didn't jump to the guard to resist the push of player 12, but chose to jump to the witch against player 1. This is completely inconsistent with the wolf's behavior logic and benefits."

"In other words, Player 3 is a wolf and would not do such a thing. He would not pretend to be a witch. He would definitely choose to pretend to be a guard for the best benefit."

"Think about it, isn't this the truth?"

Ren Fan's words were like enlightenment. The good people's eyes lit up and they all felt that it was indeed true.

If we only listen to the speeches of 1 and 3, it is hard to say who is the wolf and who is the witch between the two of them. However, considering the attitudes of 1 and 3 towards Ren Fan yesterday, it is obvious that player 1 behaved better.

But from a global perspective, as a wolf, player No. 3 should not pretend to be the witch, but should pretend to be the guard. This is what is in line with the benefits of the wolf team.

What wolf would be so stupid as to choose the hell-level difficult jump and give up the simple one?

1 and 2 are clearly stated in the front position. As long as someone in the back position jumps to guard, player No. 12 will be pushed out of the game, so there is no reason for player No. 3 not to jump to guard.

Unless he is mentally ill, he is willing to challenge difficult things and likes to play by his own rules, but this way of playing is not appropriate.

After Ren Fan's speech, the good guy's thoughts have completely changed.

Originally, when players 1 and 3 were competing against each other for the witch role, most of the good people would tend to believe that player 1 was the witch and player 3 was the tough one.

But after listening to Ren Fan's logic, they felt that they were still thinking too simply.

On the one hand, as a wolf, Player No. 3 really has no reason to confront the hunter. His status is so high that there is no need for him to cause trouble for himself.

On the other hand, as a wolf, player No. 3 does not need to jump on the witch with pair 1. He only needs to jump on the guard with pair 12, push the guard out of the game, kill the witch with one knife at night, and then kill the hunter with one knife to win.

In fact, normal wolves should jump like this. As long as they can push player No. 12 out of the game, they win. It is insane to compete with player No. 1 for the witch's clothes.

"Player 1 should be a wolf pretending to be a witch. It may sound a bit weird, but it's the truth."

"Whether from the details of his speech or the logic of his behavior, Player 3 cannot pick up the wolf card."

"Player 1 has always been on the opposite side. Yesterday, he even recognized me as a hunter. His words touched me deeply, but it is not love after all. He and I are not from the same world after all."

"So, sorry, Player 1, I, the hunter, have to give you a ticket today."

"As for whether player No. 12 is a guard, there is a big question mark. Not to mention that someone in the back position may jump to guard with No. 12, even if no one jumps to guard with him, it does not mean that he is a guard."

"Who knows what cards were played by players 7 and 8? Maybe the guard is between them."

"Originally, player No. 12 was in the defensive position, but he jumped to the guard position, which really made people feel suspicious."

"Listen again. I'm actually a little confused about guard 12. After all, I marked him as a wolf before."

"Let's see what players 5 and 11 say. If anyone of 5 or 11 jumps the guard, then it's easy. If no one jumps the guard, then we have to think carefully about whether guard 12 believes it or not."

"If I feel that players 5 and 11 are not doing well in their chats, I will lead the team to send out player 12 tomorrow. No one else can do this, only I can do it."

"Player No. 5, I was quite good at listening to you. Even if you had pointed me into the wolf pit yesterday, I didn't think you looked like a wolf."

"But now you have to play even if I don't. There's no other way. The wolf pit is too crowded, and player 12 has added a guard, which makes it very difficult. How about you play with player 12?"

"If you play guard against him, it's easy. A wolf will appear between 1 and 3, and a wolf will appear between 5 and 12. The outside positions are all good guys."

"As for player 8, I don't think he left as a wolf. Think about it yourself. If player 8 left as a wolf, there would only be one wolf left on the field. In this case, would player 1 rashly pretend to be a witch? Or does he need to take the risk of pretending to be a witch?"

"Only when there are two wolves on the field will a wolf pretend to be a witch."

"So, player 8 must be a good guy. Either players 1 and 5 are wolves, or players 1 and 12 are wolves. But judging by their comments, the possibility of players 1 and 12 becoming wolf teammates is very small."

"Because the No. 12 player on the police beat 1, and the hostility between the 1 and 12 under the police is also very high, so the two of them can't form a double wolf."

"This is also one of the important reasons why I began to doubt the identity of Player 5. Otherwise, I would still tend to believe that Player 5 is a good person."

"Okay, that's all I want to say for this round. No matter what, let's get player 1 out of the game today. I, the hunter, will lead this team. That's it. We've passed."

[Player No. 5 please speak]

"I was just thinking about how I should show my ability so that the good guys would recognize me. After thinking for a long time, it seems that there is no good way."

"Regarding the statement that the player No. 6 in the upper hand of the police gave the police the gold water of No. 7 to solicit votes and grab the police badge, I have explained it clearly before."

"I'm not making malicious speculations. I was on the side of player 9 at the time, so I had to think about why player 6, as a tough guy, wanted to throw gold water at the police officer 7. Was he trying to give 7 an identity, or was he trying to get 7's votes to steal the police badge?"

"Although I was on the wrong side, my mentality is definitely that of a good person, not what you think."

"In fact, I also know that logic has both sides. If I talk like this, you will think that I am quibbling and making excuses for my behavior."

"If player No. 12 is really a guard, I don't think I need to show off. Just treat me as a person who can tolerate mistakes and resist being pushed out."

"I'm afraid that player No. 12 is not the guard, and the real guard is between No. 7 and No. 8."

"I originally thought that player 8 might be a wolf that was poisoned and escaped. Last night, the guard was stabbed. But after listening to player 4's speech, I think what he said makes sense. If there is only one wolf left on the field, the wolf will not pretend to be a witch."

"Since the wolf dared to seduce the witch, it means there are two more wolves on the field."

Player No. 5 agrees very much with Ren Fanpan’s logic and ideas, and Player No. 8 is probably not the wolf.

If 8 is a wolf, and there is only one wolf left on the field, it is impossible for the wolf to pretend to be the witch.

This is true whether 1 is a wolf or 3 is a wolf.

In this situation, whether the good guys have a tolerance rate depends entirely on whether 12 is a guard. If he is a guard, the good guys have a tolerance rate.

After all, guards are supposed to guard people, but if 12 is not a guard, the good guys will have no tolerance for error.

Just one mistake and you lose.

1. 3 pairs of witches jumped. It was indeed quite unexpected for Ren Fan to believe that player 3 was a witch, but after listening to Ren Fan's logic, he felt that it made sense.

It is an irrefutable fact that Player No. 3's remarks and actions were not good, but his actions were not in the best interests of the Wolves.

In this case, it is impossible to predict that Player No. 3 is a wolf. We can only predict that he is a good person, a good person who is sometimes clear-headed and sometimes confused.

"Actually, I would rather play the 1 and 11 double wolf cards, because after listening to the speech of player 4, I also feel that player 3 is not very capable of holding the wolf card."

"His actions are not in the interests of the Wolves, whether it's the ticket that gives the No. 4 player a positive perspective, or the witch jump against the No. 1 player."

"Player No. 3 is the witch, and No. 1 is the wolf. If I remember correctly, Player No. 12 beat No. 1, which means that there is a high probability that No. 1 and No. 12 will not meet."

"At this point, there is no need to doubt that 1 and 12 wolves are stepping on wolves and pulling opposite sides to make identities. Although logically this is possible, if we want to win at this time, we can only believe that player No. 12 is the guard."

"What else can I do? If player No. 12 is a wolf, can I PK him? Obviously I can't PK him."

"I simply believe that he is the guard, with two wolves in plates 1 and 11. And judging from the current situation, this possibility is the greatest."

"Okay, that's all I want to say for this round. The bottom card is a good guy, a commoner. I believe in the logic of player No. 4. I will play player No. 1 today. That's it. It's over."

(End of this chapter)