Werewolf: I'm a natural showman, you win easily

Chapter 215 Pufferfish can’t speak too well
[Player No. 10 please speak]

"Not bad, not bad. I want to take over the bear of player No. 7. The 9 on the board is a wolf."

"If nothing unexpected happens, the chances of only one wolf appearing between 4 and 9 being a wolf are very small, so I want to put player number 4 aside for a bit."

"As for why I have such great hostility towards Player 9, there are two reasons."

"On the one hand, it's because of the pit position, that is, position learning. From my perspective, player No. 5 is the fox, No. 6 and No. 8 are gold and water, and No. 7 is the bear. Can I not choose No. 9 to enter the wolf pit? I must throw a water bag at him."

"But I won't beat him to death. I'm just inclined to think that the wolf under the police's questioning is 9. If he can take a photo to identify him, then it means that it is wrong to kill him. But if he can't take a photo to identify him, then I'm sorry, killing him is still killing him."

"On the other hand, my intuition tells me that there are wolves around me in this game, but not around the bear. This means that there is a high probability that there will be wolves around other good guys, especially when the bear is not around me. I think there must be wolves on my left and right sides."

"If there are no wolves around me, this game might be three or four wolves in a row, but the possibility is very low."

"What I'm saying now is not logical, but it's not entirely intuitive either. It still makes some sense. Think about it, right?"

Player No. 10 would rather recognize Player 7 as the bear, because there is nothing wrong with Player 7's perspective and speech, which makes him want to stand on the side.

Moreover, he had been somewhat suspicious that the player 9 next to him might be a wolf, so it was natural for player 7 to attack player 9. To some extent, this also proved that player 7 was a bear.

The logic and the wolf pit confirm each other. If there are no accidents, 7 is undoubtedly a bear.

"The police are arranged according to the three wolves, all opened after the police, there is no wolf in the front position, 5 is the fox, 8 is the gold and water, these are impossible to beat, don't even think about it."

"So, from my perspective, three wolves will appear among 1, 2, 3, 11, and 12. To be honest, the pit is still very crowded. If you take a picture of your identity, the wolf pit may be locked."

"I have a feeling that player 11 is going to jump into the bear game, but I don't really believe it. Unless 11 has a really good conversation, I will turn against player 7 and side with him."

Listening to Player No. 10's speech, Ren Fan couldn't help but roll his eyes, thinking that this guy's intuition didn't seem to be accurate.

Because he can't do a bear jump.

As a great pufferfish, he wants to talk about himself to the point where he is neither a wolf nor a wolf, has some bandit aspects but is not necessarily a wolf.

The degree is particularly difficult to grasp, a bit like embroidering with an excavator.

But if Pufferfish wants to bring out the effect of his skills, he has to work in this direction.

If he is really good at chatting, neither wolves nor good guys can beat him, and no one votes for him, then won't his skills be useless?

Similarly, if he is too bad at chatting, the good people will treat him as a wolf and put all their votes on him. When he uses his skills, he will kill all the good people.

"I think we don't have to choose between the two bears today. We can consider going out in an outside position. It would be best if we can find the wolf beauty."

"The Wolf Beauty on this board cannot activate her skills on the first night, which is like a window period. If we can seize this window period and release the Wolf Beauty, then we will have defeated the Wolves."

"Once this window of opportunity has passed, unless the fox cub can accurately seduce the wolf beauty, there is a high probability that the wolf beauty will be killed."

"Although we may not lose if even one of Lang Mei dies, it will not hurt to kill Lang Mei as soon as possible."

"Of course, this is just a suggestion. The decision is in the hands of Player 5. If he only wants to go between the two bears, then just ignore what I said. After all, my method is a bit risky."

"Relatively speaking, it is definitely safer to go out among the bears."

Player No. 10 had a good idea. He wanted to kill the Wolf Beauty while she was unable to use her skills.

The one who plays the role of the bear can only be Little Wolf, not Wolf Mei.

This kind of thinking is indeed in line with maximizing the benefits for good people, but the greater the benefits, the higher the risks.

If you get a wolf beauty in an external position, everyone will be happy, but what if you accidentally get a good person? Especially if you get a body, wouldn't that be embarrassing? It's a case of making things worse.

At this time, it actually depends on the character of the person who holds the right to vote.

If he is a person who seeks stability and does not like taking risks, he will definitely vote in a bear market.

But if the other party is bold and resolute, and likes to show off his skills, show that he is different from others, and is extremely confident in his own judgment, then it is really possible that he will go for what he thinks is a wolf beauty.

"Having said all that, I hope a good person can recognize me and believe that I am definitely not a wolf."

"Alright, that's all for now, Player 11, please start your show."

[Player No. 11 please speak]

"You sound a bit pretentious, Player 10. I'm afraid it's you, not me, who needs to perform."

"Aren't you following the position of player 7's speech board and trapping player 9? Then I will follow his example and point you into the wolf's trap."

"Now only player No. 7 in the front position has jumped into the bear game. It's hard to say whether it's a real bear or not, but I can stand by him first. Who knows if there will be wolves jumping into the bear game later."

"Normally, there will definitely be some who jump. If they don't jump, they won't have much room to survive. But nothing is absolute. Besides, no one knows what the wolf is thinking and what tricks it will play."

"So, I can't assume that there will be another jump later. Since player No. 7 has already jumped to the bear position and the conversation is going well, I can't rush to attack him as a wolf."

"He is a bear, and 5, 6, 7, and 8 are all good guys. In this case, 9 and 10 must be wolves, and they cannot be two wolves."

"Because player 10 is clearly hostile to player 9, and this hostility doesn't seem like the kind of hostility that is pretended by the wolf on the wolf. I can hear that player 10 really wants to kill player 9, and he wants to lead the pace to resist player 9."

"9 is under police custody. I didn't hear his speech, but I didn't feel good after listening to 10's speech."

"He said he didn't believe me when I danced the bear dance and wanted to turn against me, and asked me to start performing. These words sounded very contrived. Yes, they were contrived."

"Also, I don't agree with some of his remarks."

"For example, he said that today we can consider not playing in the middle of the jumping bear, but go to the outside position to find the wolf beauty to resist, and throw her out before the opponent has time to use skills."

"At first glance, this sounds like nothing wrong, and it's for the good of us. If conditions permit, we should maximize our profits. If we can get a wolf beauty, the profits will be much higher than getting a tough wolf."

"But the question is, do we really need to take this risk? There are two cards on this board that can counter Wolf Beauty. Zihu can go and charm Wolf Beauty tonight. As long as he charms Wolf Beauty, the opponent's skills will be useless."

"The pufferfish can also restrain the wolf beauty. As long as the wolf kills the pufferfish at night, the pufferfish will turn over during the day, and the wolf beauty's skills will be ineffective in this round."

"In other words, we have two chances to prevent Wolf Beauty from using her skills. If that's the case, why do we have to take the risk of getting rid of her on the first day?"

Ren Fan has a lot of hostility towards player No. 10, which is normal. No. 10 is throwing water bags at him in the front position, so he has to express something, right?

Although it is not certain whether 10 is a wolf or not, the opponent must be in his wolf pit. From the perspective of position, 10 cannot be released. In terms of speaking, 10 still cannot be released.

Especially player No. 10 mentioned that today they could consider going for the Wolf Beauty in the external position. There is nothing wrong with this statement itself, but he felt that player No. 10 might be trying to set the pace and paint a rosy picture for the good guys.

Originally, there was a 50% chance that a wolf would appear among the bears jumping in pairs. Even if something went wrong, it would just be the bear that was pushed back.

However, when returning the votes to the external position, the uncertainty factor is too great, and it might happen that White Cat or even him will appear.

So, maybe this is a trap.

In addition, 10's speech was a little contrived, and considering his location, he was also in the wolf pit, so Ren Fan naturally doubted 10's identity.

“如果10号玩家真的是狼，9就可以放下了，警下4、6、9三个人，6、9都择出去，4号玩家的匪面就很大了。”

"Of course, this is just my preliminary judgment, and the premise is that player No. 7 is a bear. If No. 7 is not a bear, all our logic will have to be re-discussed."

"It's okay for the fox to jump out on the first day. In fact, when you get this card, you should jump out boldly and ask for the police badge. Some people are timid with the fox and hide like a white cat and pufferfish. That's boring."

"At night, the fox will go to seduce the wolf, and try to make it a Christmas Eve. Don't tell us who you seduce at night."

"If the card you charmed shows Christmas Eve, the other party should be a wolf. If it is not Christmas Eve, and you are stabbed and the card is reversed, just give the police badge to the charmed person, he must be a good person."

"You can play the puffer as you like. It doesn't matter whether your identity is exposed or not. But it's different with the white cat. You have to hide it well. This card can only work if you stay hidden until the end."

"If you die too quickly, it's actually worthless. You're just occupying a god's pit. But as long as the white cat survives to the end, it's like the good guys have one more turn."

"In this board, the werewolf's first target is the white cat, and the fox is second, so the white cat must find a way to hide his identity."

What Ren Fan said was absolutely correct.

Even though the fox cub can charm the werewolf out on Christmas Eve, in the eyes of the wolf, the biggest threat is still the white cat.

This card must be found out as soon as possible, and he must not be allowed to survive until the end. Otherwise, the good guys will have an extra turn out of thin air.

This is determined by the skill mechanism of the white cat.

If the White Cat is killed on the second day, he can live to the third day, but this is useless because the game will not end if he does not live to the third day, after all, there are other god cards.

However, once White Cat becomes the last God on the field and he gets stabbed at night, the game will not be over, and the good guys still have a chance to make a push.

But if you change to another card, the game is over. This is the contribution that the white cat can make for the good guys.

"Player No. 10, you are the one who speaks most like a wolf in the front row. Excuse me, you'd better have an identity. If you don't, just stay away."

"And I believe that not only will I hit you, but Player 9 will also hit you, and the bear card in the back position will also hit you."

"Three against one, without any identity, do you think you can win?"

"Okay, that's all I want to say on the police. The bottom card is a good guy. For the time being, I recognize that player No. 7 is a bear. That's it. It's over."

[Player No. 12 please speak]

"So many people in the front row spoke but no one jumped in response. It's quite interesting. Will the wolf give in and not dare to jump out?"

"In this situation, I can only say that I should side with player No. 7. There is no other choice." "Three wolves should be deployed above the police, and two wolves can be deployed below the police without any consideration."

“5、7、8都择出去，剩下的10、11当中肯定要出狼。”

"From what they said, it seems like they are not on the same side. 10 said let 11 start the show, 11 stood up and fought back, and 10 fell into the wolf's den."

"Maybe most people think that 10 and 11 are opposites, and only one of them can be a wolf."

“但我感觉10、11有可能是双狼互踩做身份呢，尤其是10号玩家对话11请开始表演，我真觉得他是故意踩11拉对立面的。”

"Why do we do this? Actually, the reason is very simple. Player 10 feels that the Wolves will have little room for survival in this game, so we must create an opposing team in advance."

"When his identity is exposed, the identity of Player 11 will be exposed. Although it won't be enough for the good guys to fully acknowledge it, the identity will always be preferred."

"Similarly, if 11's identity is exposed, his identity will be ready."

"The most important thing is that the good people in the external position are unlikely to click both of them in at the same time when they click on the wolf pit. In this case, there must be good people to fill the empty wolf pit position."

“And this is exactly the anti-push position that the Wolves want.”

Player No. 12's statement was beyond everyone's expectations.

There is a wolf between 10 and 11. There is nothing wrong with this approach. After all, they have already started to step on each other.

如果10、11都是好人，那1、2、3、12四个人当中就得出三狼，只要不是爱钻牛角尖的人，都不会这么点狼坑。

But player No. 12 actually thought that players No. 10 and No. 11 were two wolves, which surprised everyone.

But after hearing his reasons for doubting the duo of 10 and 11, he had to admit that what 12 said was not completely unreasonable.

If the wolf is foresighted enough, it will deliberately step on its teammates to pull them to the opposite side, so as to avoid being marked as a double wolf and attacked.

As long as the good guys don't play 10 or 11 wolves, one of them will always survive, and there will always be someone in the good camp to fill the wolf pit.

Although player No. 12 has reached this level, it does not mean that all the good people in the external position can think of it.

In fact, even if 12 mentioned that 10 and 11 might be wolf teammates who step on each other, it does not necessarily mean that one is a wolf and the other is a good person. It is still unclear whether the players in the external position believe it or not.

After all, 12 relied on speculation to do this. It was his own imaginary player No. 10 who deliberately stepped on Ren Fan as an identity. In fact, there is no logic to prove this.

On the contrary, judging from their speeches, 10 and 11 do not seem like a pair of wolves.

"Player No. 10 talks to Zihu. When the last position returns the vote, you can consider using Wolf Beauty in the outer position. This is a window period for his skills. If you seize it, you will make a lot of money."

"Player No. 11 thinks this is wrong. There is no need to catch the wolf beauty on the first day. The risk is too great and it may backfire."

"Let's not talk about who is right or wrong between the two of them. From a mentality point of view, I think player No. 10 is more like a good person."

"If the bottom card of number 10 is a wolf, he doesn't need to say something that attracts people's attention. It will easily make him the focus. And if the fox child really gets the wolf beauty in the outside position, wouldn't that be very embarrassing?"

"As a wolf, he should just play the bait, keep his identity, and say nice things. There's no need to mention shocking words like this."

"Player No. 10 dared to talk to Zihu directly, and he could consider giving the external position to Wolf Beauty. I think his mentality is good. He wanted to take advantage of the gap when Wolf Beauty can't use her skills to get rid of Wolf Beauty. It's a good idea."

"However, player No. 11 thought that he couldn't play in the outside position today, so he should play between the two bears, and used this to lead the pace against player No. 10, the wolf."

"From this point of view, I think 11 has a bigger bandit side than 10. 11 may be afraid that Wolf Beauty will really be pushed back on the first day. If that's the case, the game will collapse."

"So, if I got the numbers wrong, and 10 and 11 are not two wolves, but only one of them is a wolf, then it should be player number 11."

After player No. 12 pointed out that 10 and 11 might be two wolves, he made another assumption, that is, if only one wolf appeared between 10 and 11, it would most likely be Ren Fan.

Because Ren Fan's mentality was not good, he didn't want good people to take advantage of Wolf Beauty's window period to push Wolf Beauty.

Although Ren Fan might also have good intentions, he was afraid that the votes for the Fox external position would go to a good person, or even a god card.

But now he has to find the wolf among 10 and 11, so he is more inclined to think the worst of Ren Fan.

Player No. 10 thought of finding Wolf Beauty and killing him during her skill window period. This is a pretty good idea, which shows that he wants to defeat the Wolf Team.

“如果10是好人，11是狼，那9、11应该就是双狼，因为11打10或许就是在保9号玩家。”

"After listening to 10's comments, I think most people will think that 9 and 10 don't share the same side. In this case, if 11 wants to save his wolf teammate, he can only label 10 as a wolf, and then 9 will naturally be recognized."

"So, I think 9 and 11 are most likely double wolves. Player 4 can be put aside for now, but that doesn't mean I recognize him. If he doesn't talk well under the police, he should be put into the wolf pit."

"If 10 and 11 are really two wolves, then only one of the three wolves will appear after the alarm. Otherwise, two of them will appear."

“To be honest, the pits are still very crowded. If someone can take a photo to identify themselves, it will be even more crowded.”

"But I won't be so stubborn. Player 7's speech was good, and I have the urge to side with him, but that doesn't mean that 7 must be a bear. There are many players who are good at speaking and are brave enough to be wolves. I'm not stubborn."

"But if you want me to come back, the bear in the latter position has to talk a little better. Otherwise, how can I come back? I can't just imagine that the wolf is the one who speaks well and the bear is the one who speaks poorly, right?"

"Okay, that's all I want to say on the police. You're a good guy, that's it. It's over."

[Player No. 1 please speak]

"I am the bear brothers, don't be fooled by the little wolf cub's lies."

"Now I can be sure that 2 and 12 are both good people."

"In fact, even if Player 12 wasn't with me, I would have been able to recognize him based on his speech."

"Because wolves don't play 10 or 11 pairs of wolves stepping on each other for identity. Only good people would think that way."

"And the reason why Wolf won't talk like this is because it's easy to draw the hostility of 10 and 11 to him. Originally, 10 and 11 were opposites, and this way, they would unite to face the outside world."

"This is not in the Wolves' interest, so if the No. 12 player is a wolf, he won't play with two wolves at No. 10 or No. 11. It's best to divide them."

"I feel it's a pity. If player No. 12 was in the outside position, I would have recognized him based on his speech, but he was next to me and responded to Jinshui's speech. After all, they are all good people."

"But his thinking is indeed very important. 10 and 11 are very likely to be a pair of wolves. We can't just see 10 and 11 fighting each other and think that they don't know each other."

Player No. 1 seems to agree very much with Player No. 12's point of view. He also thinks that Players No. 10 and 11 may be the Twin Wolves.

Although on the surface 10 and 11 are fighting each other and it looks like they don’t know each other, this game can never be judged on the surface alone. You have to make your own speculations and assumptions.

There is a very good saying in science: make bold assumptions and verify them carefully.

That's what Werewolf is all about. After listening to someone else's speech, make a bold assumption about their purpose, and then verify it bit by bit.

If there is a problem with the verification and it doesn't make sense logically, it means that the assumption is wrong.

But if it makes sense and matches other logic or details, then it is likely to be correct.

It’s not that you can’t find wolves just by looking at their superficial speeches and situations, but you definitely can’t find them all. If you can find them all, it’s either a ghost or a low-end game for newbies, with no logical twists.

"I think the wolf pit is when three wolves appear among 3, 7, 10, and 11."

"Player No. 8 is most likely a good guy. If No. 7 and No. 8 are both wolves, it would be inappropriate for No. 7 to come out and play the role of a bear."

"Besides, wasn't player No. 8 the bear who was in position after repeated conversations? Didn't he want to play the 7th and 8th wolves? He has said so much, it would be unreasonable for me not to give him some face."

"But I also want to talk to player 8. If you are not good at speaking under the police, or if you are stubborn and want to join the wolf team, then I should point to you as a wolf. I have to point to you."

"Now you are equivalent to receiving the gold water from player No. 7. I will think that he is soliciting your votes. I want to see your performance."

"Anyway, the opportunity has been given to you. It depends on whether you can seize it."

"I have made it very clear why points 10 and 11 went into the wolf pit. Neither of their speeches were particularly good, and their actions of stepping on each other were a bit like wolves making identities."

"If 10 and 11 are two wolves, player 3 can choose to leave. After all, I haven't heard what 3 said yet. I just used the pit elimination method to push him into the wolf pit."

"But if players 10 and 11 are not two wolves, then there is nothing I can do. I must choose player 3 to enter the wolf pit. Otherwise, there won't be enough wolf pits."

“So, whether player 3 is a wolf pit depends on whether players 10 and 11 are double wolves.”

"Player No. 12 thinks that Player No. 10 has more good sides than Player No. 11. If only one of them really opens a wolf, then that would be Player No. 11. I agree with this logic."

“警下有4、6、9三个人，从10号玩家对9的态度来看，9、10是不共边的，他们俩做不成双狼。”

"And I pushed player 10 into the wolf pit. So I have to temporarily accept player 9."

"Unless I can be sure that player 10 is not a wolf, then I can doubt the identity of player 9. Before that, I definitely cannot put both player 9 and player 10 into the wolf pit at the same time."

"After player No. 9 made his move, the police's wolf opened between 4 and 6. Either of them could be a wolf. Without seeing the ticket pattern or listening to their speeches, there is really no way to determine their identities."

"So, I don't distinguish between close and distant relatives when I'm on duty. I just start a wolf among 4 or 6. Whoever speaks badly under the police will go into the wolf's pit. Of course, it would be best if their identities can be photographed."

"Similarly, if anyone among 3, 10, and 11 can jump out as a god, the remaining two will be wolves."

"I hope the good guys can recognize me and believe that I am the bear. Player 7 is just a wolf cub. His so-called positional theory is probably just to make the good guys fight each other."

"It doesn't matter whether I get the badge or not, I have Zihu leading the team anyway, but I really hope you can stand by me and push player No. 7 out of the game. As long as you recognize me, we will definitely win this game."

"Okay, that's all I want to say, Trump Card Bear, that's it, over."

(End of this chapter)