Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

The Iranian Chief of Staff of the National Defense Forces objected: "No! Blocking the strait is tantamount to inviting the US Navy in. Our navy only has a few frigates and some fast boats. It can't withstand a US carrier battle group for even a day."

The debate lasted for several hours.

Ultimately, Khomeini, the unquestionable supreme authority sitting above all the arguments, made the ruling: a step-by-step upgrade.

First, expand the scope and frequency of inspections and searches in the strait to cause delays and panic for passing merchant ships. At the same time, order the Revolutionary Guard to prepare deployment plans for mines and shore-to-ship missiles.

The authorization for the blockade is temporarily retained—to be reactivated if export capabilities are further destroyed to the point that the war economy cannot be sustained.

Starting September 18, the Iranian Navy significantly expanded the scope of its "boarding and searching" operations in the Strait of Hormuz.

More than a dozen neutral merchant ships are stopped and searched every day for "war aid supplies to Iraq".

The shipping industry's reaction was immediate, with delays, detours, and increased insurance rates. International oil prices, which had fallen to $26 due to Saudi Arabia's large-scale oil production, rebounded by $1 that day.

Meanwhile, Iran activated its contingency plan, using shuttle tankers to move the remaining export capacity of Kharg Island south to Siri Island for transshipment.

The shuttle fleet traveled back and forth between Halk and Siri day and night, leaving a clear track on satellite images.

Baghdad, the last day of September.

Saddam Hussein summoned the Soviet ambassador to the presidential palace alone.

The atmosphere of the meeting was the same as every time Saddam met with Soviet diplomats: outwardly warm and friendly, but in reality, each had their own ulterior motives.

Saddam Hussein spent nearly an hour thanking the Soviet Union for its "generous assistance" and "sincere friendship," then casually mentioned it near the end of the conversation—

France recently expressed its willingness to provide the Iraqi Air Force with more advanced Mirage 2000 fighter jets and improved Exocet missiles at very competitive prices, while the United States is also discussing expanding its agricultural credit line.

Saddam was playing with fire, trying to profit from both the US and the USSR. But this isn't the future; this is the Cold War between two superpowers!

No small country could offend both the US and the Soviet Union and still emerge with a respectable outcome.

This president, who's trying to profit from both sides, may be laughing now, but he won't be laughing when American troops land in the Gulf in 1990.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

October.

The activity on Siri grew more intense each day in overhead photographs taken by the Soviet "Legend" satellite, as the Iranians rapidly established a makeshift oil transshipment system on that small island deep in the Persian Gulf.

The shuttle tanker from Halk Island unloads its cargo at the anchorage north of Siri Island. The crude oil is then transferred to newly built storage tanks on the island via a temporary floating pipeline, and then loaded onto ocean-going tankers from the deep-water berths on the south side for transport to Asia and Europe.

This system is crude, inefficient, and extremely costly to maintain, but at least it's working!

Iran’s export capacity slowly recovered from an average of 80 barrels per day in mid-September to about 120 million barrels per day in early October, far less than the 200 million barrels per day before the war, but enough to sustain the most basic fuel needs of the war machine.

On October 2, the Soviet Union launched a second wave of attacks.

Four Su-24s flew low along the Saudi coastline to avoid Iranian radar coverage before climbing to attack altitude 60 kilometers from Siri.

Two hours earlier, the "Legend" satellite's overhead data had pinpointed the location of every shuttle tanker in the anchorage—two 100,000-ton shuttle tankers that were unloading cargo became the primary targets.

Anti-radiation missiles were deployed first, suppressing the island's only two air defense radars. Then came laser-guided bombs, eight of which hit the connection point of the floating pipeline and the loading facilities at the southern berth, while two directly hit the shuttle tanker in the anchorage.

A massive fire broke out on Siri Island, with thick smoke from the burning crude oil rising thousands of meters into the Persian Gulf, visible from the Abu Dhabi coastline a hundred kilometers away.

Iran's export capacity was effectively reduced to zero that morning.

The loading arm on Harker Island was destroyed three weeks ago, and now the transshipment system on Siri Island is also paralyzed. All that's left is a tiny emergency facility on Larak Island that can barely handle a few hundred thousand barrels a day.

Tehran reacted immediately within the next 10 hours. On October 5, the Revolutionary Guard Navy received formal authorization from the Supreme Defense Council to prepare for defensive mine-laying.

The old M08 trigger mines were retrieved from the armory in Bandar Abbas and installed on modified landing ships and civilian cargo ships.

These mines are Soviet products from the 1950s and 60s. They are technologically outdated, but their lethality against merchant ships remains undiminished.

The Revolutionary Guard chose mine-laying areas concentrated on the main shipping lanes south of Farsi Island, which is the route for all oil tankers departing from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

The mine-laying was carried out secretly at night without any announcement. When the mines were pushed into the sea, no one knew where they would drift to.

They only make a devastating sound when some unlucky ship hull comes into contact with them.

On October 17, a bulk carrier flying the Liberian flag struck a mine in the waters off Farsi Island. The explosion created a three-meter-wide hole on the starboard bow. The ship did not sink, but three crew members were injured.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry later issued a statement, deflecting blame by saying that "this was a drifting mine caused by the war started by Iraq."

No one believed this claim.

The waters south of Farsi Island are outside the range of Iraqi air force strikes, and there is no possibility of Iraqi drifting mines there!

However, without direct evidence, there is no way to hold anyone accountable under international law. The beauty of sea mines lies precisely in their anonymity. Whoever gets hit can say it's a drifting mine, and even if they can't deny it, they can say it's a sea mine left over from World War II.

On October 20, the Lloyd's of London War Risk Committee designated the waters in the northern Gulf, from Kuwait to Bahrain, as the highest risk zone.

War risk premiums tripled overnight, and independent shipowners began refusing to accept transport contracts on the Kuwait and Saudi routes, with insurance companies unwilling to underwrite.

Oil shipments in the Gulf are beginning to stagnate.

The night raid on October 23 pushed the panic to a new level.

A Greek-flagged supertanker loaded with Kuwaiti crude oil was attacked by unidentified speedboats after leaving Kuwaiti waters. Three speedboats approached at high speed from the darkness and strafed the tanker's superstructure and bridge with RPG rockets and heavy machine guns.

The captain's cabin was directly hit by a rocket, and the captain and three Greek crew members met their demise without a trace. The oil tanker caught fire, but because the cargo holds were sealed and the crude oil did not ignite, the fire was extinguished several hours later.

The attackers quickly disappeared into the night after opening fire, and Iran denied any involvement.

The Greek government is not stupid; it recalled its ambassador to Tehran that same day for consultations—in diplomatic terms, this was tantamount to the final step in severing diplomatic ties.

The Greek Shipowners' Association announced that all member vessels must immediately suspend shipping routes through the Gulf until safety is guaranteed.

On October 26th, a piece of information that made Director Nian tense up reached her desk:

The latest images from the "Legend" satellite have identified a distinctive type of shipping container in Bandar Abbas – rectangular, standardized in size, and shipped from North Korea via Pakistan.

Damn, that's a Silkworm anti-ship missile with a range of about 90 kilometers and a warhead weighing 500 kilograms. 500 kilograms of warhead is enough to take down a cruiser, let alone a supertanker!

The arrival of the Silkworm missile means that Iran now has the hardware capability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can now cover the entire narrowest part of the strait, and any ship passing through that 33-kilometer waterway will be exposed to the missile's kill range.

It seems we must send out an armed escort.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

Kuwait was the first to react. On October 9, prior to the landmine incident and the night attack, Kuwait had already sent secret envoys to Moscow and Washington respectively, requesting the two superpowers to provide escort and protection for Kuwaiti ships.

Washington hesitated. A heated debate was raging in Congress over whether the United States should be dragged into the Iran-Iraq War. Senators were yelling at each other at hearings, and Pentagon generals were calculating how many warships and how many billions of dollars would be needed for the escort operation.

Reagan’s national security team held round after round of meetings in the White House basement, but could not come up with a plan that everyone agreed on.

Moscow did not hesitate; it was better to win over pro-Soviet forces in the Gulf region than to let the United States do it.

On October 12, the Soviet Union formally replied to Kuwait through diplomatic channels, agreeing to lease three Soviet oil tankers to Kuwait and fly the Soviet flag for oil transportation.

PS: This was done by the Soviet Union in 1987 in the original historical timeline; Iran actually shot down a Soviet ship.

Flying the Soviet flag meant that these ships enjoyed the protection of Soviet sovereignty under international law, and attacking them was tantamount to attacking the Soviet Union.

The speed at which the Soviet Union made its decision astonished analysts in Washington. A US State Department expert on Soviet affairs wrote:

"Moscow actually completed a decision in 72 hours that we hadn't been able to finish in three weeks! This either shows that the Soviet Union's decision-making efficiency has improved dramatically under Gorbachev, or it shows that they had a plan ready all along and were just waiting for Kuwait to speak up."

The answer is, of course, the latter. In its internal analysis report in September, Director Nian had already listed responding to Kuwait's escort request ahead of the United States as one of the contingency plans.

She knew that Kuwait would eventually seek help from both superpowers simultaneously, and the first to arrive would secure a favorable position in the Gulf.

On October 29, two minesweepers and a large anti-submarine ship from the Soviet Eighth Operational Squadron in the Indian Ocean moved eastward from their anchorage at Socotra Island into the Persian Gulf, ostensibly to ensure the safety of Soviet merchant ships.

On October 31, Washington followed suit, announcing that it would provide naval escorts for ships flying the U.S. flag, and Central Command began to assemble a second carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea.

Warships from the two superpowers began operations in the Persian Gulf, each protecting their own fleets without interfering with or cooperating with each other, operating in parallel within the same waters according to their own routes and rules of engagement.

The Cold War confrontation extended from land to sea.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

In November, the storm brought about by the Soviet Union's "Trade Winds" operation finally arrived.

On November 3, the Iraqi Air Force launched a second strike on Siri Island under satellite guidance, destroying the island's few remaining storage tanks as well, thus wiping out Iran's last remaining export capacity from its books.

Iran's oil exports effectively dropped to zero after that day.

Oil prices continued to rise, reaching $30. Now, a war-torn nation that needed millions of dollars a day to buy ammunition, pay military salaries, and import food suddenly lost its only source of income.

On November 5, during a congregational prayer in Tehran, President Rafsanjani delivered a strongly worded speech to tens of thousands of worshippers, concluding with the following:

"The Persian Gulf is either safe for everyone or unsafe for no one!"

That evening, the Supreme Defense Council, under Khomeini's authorization, made the final decision: to initiate the blockade.

On the morning of November 6, the whole world was awakened by the same news—the Islamic Republic of Iran officially declared the Strait of Hormuz a war control zone.

All vessels passing through the strait must obtain prior permission from Iran; those that pass through without permission will be treated as engaging in hostile acts!

Silkworm missile sites were fully deployed, nighttime mine-laying was carried out on a large scale along the main shipping lane, and a fleet of Revolutionary Guard speedboats formed a loose but continuous patrol line at the eastern entrance of the strait.

The strait is closed, at least nominally, and passage requires paying cash to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or purchasing so-called "passes."

On November 8, two giant oil tankers struck mines one after the other at the eastern entrance of the strait. The first ship was damaged and took on water, and the crew abandoned ship. The second was a 11-ton supertanker. A ten-meter-wide hole was blown in below the waterline, the engine room was flooded, the ship began to list, and finally capsized and sank in the strait six hours later.

Two hundred thousand tons of crude oil began to spread on the water surface, forming an oil slick covering an area of ​​tens of square kilometers.

Commercial shipping in the Gulf effectively came to a standstill after that day, with dozens of oil tankers lined up at anchor outside the Gulf of Oman, watching from the sidelines, and no one daring to enter the strait again.

Panic gripped the global oil market, with Brent crude futures surging 40 percent in the three trading days following the lockdown announcement.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq have no objections, because a significant portion of their crude oil is transported from Türkiye to Europe via land pipelines, and the higher the oil price, the happier they are.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

11 month 10 day.

The Soviet-flagged oil tanker "Machar Chuikov" struck a mine in the Kuwaiti shipping lane.

The oil tanker, one of three ships leased to Kuwait by the Soviet Union, was fully loaded with Kuwaiti crude oil and was sailing out of Kuwaiti waters towards the Strait of Hormuz. The explosion occurred at 3:17 AM when a mine detonated below the engine room on the port side of the hull. The blast wave tore a five-meter-wide gash in the engine room's steel plating, allowing seawater to rush in at a rate of hundreds of tons per minute!

The Soviet crew on board immediately opened the watertight hatch, but the two engineers on night duty were swallowed by the overturned bulkhead and the rushing seawater in the first second after the explosion.

Their bodies were recovered two days later, still wearing their work clothes and holding wrenches.

Two Soviet men died in the waters of the Persian Gulf.

The news reached Moscow that morning. TASS issued a statement: "A Soviet oil tanker was struck by a mine in the Persian Gulf, resulting in the tragic deaths of two Soviet crew members."

But the atmosphere in the Kremlin corridors is a completely different story.

The Ministry of Defense was enraged, and both military conservatives and reformers had the same answer on this issue—to launch retaliatory airstrikes against Iran.

The Soviet Air Force, taking off from the Transcaucasian Military District, was fully capable of launching a devastating strike against the Revolutionary Guard base in Bandar Abbas, without needing to use forces stationed in Iraq; the Soviet mainland's strike capabilities would suffice.

The terrain in southern Iran is very suitable for defense, and if the US troops were to land, they would suffer a lot. However, the terrain in northern Iran is very suitable for Soviet army groups to rush in.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs firmly opposed this, arguing that airstrikes could easily provoke Iran to escalate the intensity, forcing the Soviet Union to intervene in the war.

The Soviet Union had painstakingly gained some political and diplomatic capital through its withdrawal from Afghanistan; this invasion would damage the alliance's reputation, and even more dangerously—

The simultaneous use of force by the Soviet Union and the United States in the Gulf would cause the conflict in the entire region to spiral out of control.

The debate reached its peak at an emergency meeting attended only by the core decision-making circle.

"I will not downplay the fact that two Soviet citizens died, but I ask my comrades here to do the math—"

What would happen if we bombed Iran? First, Iran would use the Soviet invasion as a rallying cry for national resistance, and Khomeini would live another ten years, because foreign invasion is the best way for a dictator to prolong his life!

Second, the entire Islamic world will side with Iran—come on, we just withdrew from Afghanistan!

Third, the Americans are actually hoping we'll get involved! They want to fight Iran, but they're afraid of the anti-war movement at home. If we strike first, they'll have the perfect excuse to follow suit. Then the Gulf won't be a situation where two superpowers are each handling their own escort duties, but rather a joint operation against Iran, with a permanent US military presence after the war.

This is the biggest nightmare we've had in the South Wing in forty years.

The coalition has already lost half of Afghanistan and Iran; it cannot afford to send in US troops.

"The right thing to do is to take this opportunity to the Security Council and pass a resolution on shipping safety and a mandatory arms embargo against the belligerents. The lives of the two sailors are not for revenge, but to win a diplomatic victory that puts the Soviet Union on the moral high ground in the Gulf issue!"

The purpose of diplomacy is to ensure that a nation survives into the next century.

Although it was cruel, the meeting ultimately adopted the plan proposed by the leader, after all, a new Geneva summit was to be held in mid-November, and Gorbachev wanted to demonstrate his new thinking on peaceful diplomacy to the West. The Soviet Union could not go to war at this time, neither morally nor logically.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

Three days later, Iran paid the price.

On the night of November 13, a group of unidentified speedboats approached the Soviet cargo ship Ivan Koroteyev, which was escorting ships in the Kuwait Channel, at high speed from the darkness.

Unlike the night attack on the Greek oil tanker, the Ivan Koroteyev was accompanied by a Soviet Navy Sovremenny-class guided-missile destroyer.

The destroyer's radar detected the speedboats when they were 12 kilometers away. Five small, high-speed targets approached from the southeast at 35 knots, their tracks pointing directly at the cargo ship.

The captain issued a radio warning to the group of speedboats in accordance with the newly revised rules of engagement, but the group did not respond or change course.