Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

No, a few things are not right.

Five missiles are far too few. If the United States were truly going to launch a preemptive nuclear strike against the Soviet Union, they would have launched hundreds of missiles at once, not just five—five nuclear ballistic missiles wouldn't even destroy a single Soviet city, let alone cripple its retaliatory capabilities!

Furthermore, the ground radar hadn't confirmed it! The Oko satellite system was the first line of defense; if the missile had indeed been launched, then within minutes the Soviet ground-based long-range early warning radars in Kamchatka and the Kola Peninsula should have been able to detect the incoming missile's trajectory. But there was nothing on the ground radar screens.

Petrov knew that the Oko system had flaws. The satellite's infrared sensors could, under certain seasons and angles, misinterpret sunlight reflected from high-altitude clouds as the exhaust plume of a missile launch. This problem had been discussed many times at technical meetings, but it had never been completely resolved.

He made his judgment in those fifteen seconds.

“This should be a false alarm from the system,” he told everyone in the duty room. “The ground radar hasn’t confirmed it, and the number of missiles doesn’t match the logic of the first strike. Don’t report it yet; wait for the ground radar data.”

"Yes, Lieutenant Colonel." The soldier who answered him was deathly pale.

The next five minutes were the longest five minutes of Petrov's life. If he misjudged, Moscow would be within the ballistic missile strike window in those five minutes, and the Soviet Union would have no time to react.

Five minutes passed. The ground radar screen remained blank.

Five more minutes passed, and nothing happened.

Petrov's hands were trembling violently. Sometimes that's how people are; the fear after the danger has passed is more intense than the fear when the danger itself was present.

Subsequent technical investigation confirmed his judgment: on September 26th, the OKO satellite's sensors happened to be at a specific angle to sunlight, and the reflection of sunlight from high-altitude cirrus clouds was misinterpreted by the sensors as the infrared signature of missile launches. The five missiles were actually the reflections of sunlight from ice crystal clouds floating tens of thousands of meters above the ground in the setting sun.

Historically, this incident only came to light many years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but this time it was different—Andropov made a different decision after receiving the accident report.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

Geneva, September 27, afternoon.

The negotiations are on their thirty-second day. The two sides are discussing a phased timetable for SS20 reductions, and this tug-of-war looks set to continue into the next day.

Suddenly, the conference room door was pushed open.

Everyone on both sides of the negotiating table looked up at the door at the same time—standing there was Slava, his face extremely pale, clutching a piece of paper in his hand.

He walked slowly to the Soviet chief representative, Kvičinsky, bent down, and whispered a few words in his ear. Kvičinsky's expression remained unchanged after hearing the first two sentences, but from the third sentence onwards, his face changed.

The American representative clearly saw the fear on his face.

Kwiczinski stood up and said to Nietzsche across the table, "Paul, please forgive me for interrupting the agenda. I need to have an urgent consultation with my team. Please wait a moment."

“What happened?” Nietzsche asked.

He kept a close eye on the Soviet delegation. In his more than forty years of diplomatic career, any situation where negotiations were abruptly interrupted was never a good thing.

Slava glanced at Kvičinsky, who hesitated for a second before nodding slightly.

“Mr. Nietzsche,” Slava said, “I am Velikoslav Ivanovich Ivanov, the coordinator for the Soviet delegation. About forty minutes ago, the Moscow side briefed me on an extremely serious situation—”

He paused for a moment.

"At 00:14 Moscow time last night, the Soviet strategic early warning satellite system detected the launch of five intercontinental ballistic missiles from the direction of Montana, USA, with their targets aimed at Soviet territory."

The air in the meeting room froze for a moment. Several members of the American delegation gaped in astonishment, and one of the translators' earpieces fell off his ear, slamming onto the table with a sharp thud.

Nietzsche's expression changed drastically: "What are you saying?!"

“Please let me finish.” Slava raised a hand and gestured for a moment.

"After repeated confirmation, our duty officer determined—"

This was a false alarm. The infrared sensor on the early warning satellite misinterpreted the reflection of sunlight from high-altitude clouds as the exhaust plume of a missile launch. Ground-based long-range early warning radar detected no incoming targets, and the alliance's strategic nuclear forces did not initiate retaliatory procedures.

He placed the summary of the notification from Moscow on the table.

"The situation is now under control, but I need everyone to understand the seriousness of this matter:"

If our duty officer had made even the slightest misjudgment, if he had chosen to report instead of waiting for confirmation from ground radar during that fifteen-second window, if a tense Moscow had agreed to execute the nuclear counterattack procedure, then none of us might be here right now.

Nietzsche swallowed.

"I sincerely hope that these negotiations will be successful, and that peace for all mankind will last forever." Slava bowed to the U.S. representative.

The meeting room fell silent for a few seconds. Nietzsche slowly released his fist from under the table, then turned to an aide sitting next to him and said, “Contact Washington immediately to confirm whether we had any missile tests or unusual activity yesterday.”

The deputy immediately got up and left the meeting room.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

For the next two hours, the conference room was transformed into a communications center.

The U.S. delegation repeatedly confirmed the situation with Washington by phone. The Pentagon confirmed that the U.S. did not conduct any missile tests on September 26, and that all Minuteman III missile silos in Montana were on normal standby status with no unusual activity. This confirmation itself was not surprising—if the U.S. had actually launched a missile, they would be in a bomb shelter now, not on the phone—but the official confirmation process was diplomatically necessary.

At the same time, the Soviet Foreign Ministry issued a statement in Moscow:

The statement noted that the ongoing U.S. military exercises near the Kamchatka Peninsula are escalating tensions between the two superpowers, and that the Soviet Union's strategic nuclear forces have been forced into a state of high alert.

The statement also reviewed the restraint maintained by the Soviet Union during the Korean Air incident, noting that from the Korean Air incident to this early warning system false alarm, the Soviet Union had been making every effort to avoid miscalculation and escalation of the conflict.

Finally, the Soviet Union called on the United States to cease its military provocations at the border and to cherish the valuable opportunity for both sides to jointly reduce nuclear arms in Geneva.

The statement was disseminated worldwide that evening through TASS and other international news agencies.

The results were much better than Slava had expected.

Although this set a precedent—a nuclear superpower publicly admitting that its early warning system had given a false alarm—the Soviet Union’s intention was clear: it was telling the world how close humanity was to nuclear war, and that while the Allies had exercised restraint, it was now the Americans’ turn to reflect.

The core of Slava's actions was to make as many friends as possible, as few enemies as possible, to win over the middle forces, and to win over pro-Soviet forces.

The Soviet Union alone was certainly not enough to exert pressure, but what if Europe were added to the mix?

The morning after the news reached the capital, newspapers in Bonn, Paris, Amsterdam, and Brussels all carried the same headline on their front pages: Humanity almost perished last night!

Anti-nuclear organizations in West Germany immediately organized large-scale street protests, and tens of thousands of people gathered daily near the Palais des Nations in Geneva, holding signs demanding a halt to the deployment of nuclear weapons.

The people of West Germany understand better than people in any other country what it would mean if a nuclear war broke out.

Regardless of whether the United States or the Soviet Union ultimately wins, West Germany, sandwiched between the two superpowers, will inevitably be reduced to ashes. Millions took to the streets of Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, and Frankfurt, an order of magnitude larger than the protests against the deployment of Pershing II a few months earlier.

The Kohl government in West Germany was under immense pressure from both inside and outside. The Social Democratic Party and the Green Party launched an emergency debate in parliament demanding a halt to preparations for the deployment of Pershing II, and voices of wavering emerged within the Christian Democratic Union.

Meanwhile, in Washington, the Reagan administration found itself in a dilemma:

If no response is made to the Soviet statement, European allies will perceive it as ignoring the risk of nuclear war; if a strong response is made, it will further exacerbate the already escalating anti-nuclear panic.

Faced with strong resistance in Europe, Reagan had no choice but to back down.

The conservatives within Moscow also fell silent for the time being. Andropov seized this opportunity and, three days after the false alarm, signed a new negotiating mandate—further lowering the Soviet Union's acceptable reduction threshold for SS-20 missiles from one hundred to seventy-five, exactly the same figure as in the "Walking in the Woods" plan a year earlier.

Nietzsche was overjoyed when he saw the Soviet Union's new stance.

"Are you serious?" he asked Kwitsinsky privately.

"This time we're both serious, aren't we?"

The negotiations quickly entered their final sprint stage:

The European portion of SS20 was reduced to 75 missiles, with the remainder moved east of the Urals but no further additions were made. The US had already drastically reduced the number of Pershing II missiles deployed from 108 to 50—but under pressure from the false alarm incident, the Reagan administration had to concede again, and the final number was set at a symbolic 25, with the deployment date postponed from 1984 to 1986!

In this way, the Soviet Union retained a certain degree of intermediate-range nuclear deterrent capability, the United States maintained a symbolic presence in West Germany, and the actual nuclear risk was significantly reduced.

The agreement was officially signed on October 13.

Nietzsche and Kvečinski shook hands at the oval oak table in the Palais des Nations, and the flashes of light created a white wall of light. The photograph appeared on the front page of almost every newspaper in the world the next day—two diplomats from a superpower clasped hands, with the sky-blue flag of the United Nations and the blue waters of Lake Geneva in the background.

Has the world gained a brief respite...?

The Excellent Shooter 83 exercise is about to begin.

Chapter 35 Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Before the ink on the Geneva Conventions had even dried, Reagan delivered a resounding slap to the world's face.

On October 25, just twelve days after Nietzsche and Kvičinsky shook hands at the Palais des Nations made headlines worldwide, more than 10 U.S. Marines and soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division launched Operation Fury on the Caribbean island of Grenada.

Grenada is a small Caribbean country with an area of ​​only 340 square kilometers and a population of less than 110,000. Its land area is smaller than a single district of Moscow.

In 1979, after Bishop, the leader of the Marxist-leaning "New Gem Movement," came to power, he established close relations with the Soviet Union and Cuba, and built a large airport with the help of the Cuban engineering corps.

The Americans believed that the runway was intended for Soviet military aircraft. In mid-October, pro-Soviet hardliners in Grenada staged a coup, killing Bishop, who advocated for improved relations with the United States. The situation deteriorated rapidly, and Reagan deployed troops under the pretext of protecting American citizens.

The Americans overthrew the Grenada government in three days and installed a pro-American government, a clean and decisive military victory—if you don't count the embarrassing incident where the U.S. Army and Marine Corps almost opened fire on each other due to incompatible communication frequencies, the accident where U.S. artillery accidentally bombed a mental hospital, or the farce of a helicopter being shot down by its own anti-aircraft fire during landing.

But politically it was a disaster.

The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution by an overwhelming majority of 108 votes in favor and 9 against, condemning the United States for its blatant violation of international law, even though the United States voted against it in the Security Council.

Latin American countries protested en masse, the Non-Aligned Movement in the Third World issued a strongly worded statement, and even America's most important allies in Western Europe expressed their dissatisfaction—Britain's reaction was particularly strong.

Because Grenada was a member of the Commonwealth, the United States did not even notify London before the invasion.

What does it matter to you if I invade your territory?

Labour Prime Minister Ford issued a statement calling the U.S. action "a blatant violation of a sovereign nation and a Commonwealth country" and demanding the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops.

Reagan was quite troubled by this; he probably never imagined that an insignificant Caribbean island could tear such a large rift in the "special relationship" between the two sides of the Atlantic.

Being a hardliner is not easy, because being hardline only invites fiercer resistance, and Slava understands this very well.

At the same time, he was also worried about Moscow's reaction, because the Soviet Union had just signed an arms control agreement in Geneva, only to see the Americans use force to overthrow a pro-Soviet regime in the Caribbean. How would this pattern of signing agreements and then firing them be interpreted within Andropov's mindset, shaped by memories of 1941?

The answer speaks for itself.

The Americans never intended to coexist peacefully; the Geneva Convention was merely a delaying tactic—similar in nature to the Munich Agreement signed by Hitler in 1938.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

In late October and early November, the situation in Europe was like a pot of boiling water.

Italy is experiencing a wave of terrorism: far-left Red Brigades and far-right neo-fascist groups are launching attacks across the country, with bombings and shootings occurring in Rome, Milan, and Naples.

The government intensified its crackdown on the Mafia, but the anti-Mafia judge was killed by a Mafia car bomb shortly after taking office in Palermo—the news shocked the entire country on the day it broke, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets to mourn and protest.

The U.S. military deployed additional troops to Italy under the pretext of maintaining stability on NATO's southern flank—a move that sparked huge controversy in Italy. Left-wing parties accused the U.S. of using the pretext of counterterrorism to actually station troops, while the right wing worried that the presence of U.S. troops would make Italy a prime target for a Soviet nuclear strike.

Italy's political situation has always been unstable, with the Italian cabinet changing frequently in recent years.

In the original history, between the end of World War II and 2019, Italy experienced 63 cabinets, with an average lifespan of just over one year.

On August 4th of this year, Italy also formed a new coalition government, with the first Socialist Party member in the history of the Italian Republic serving as prime minister. The Socialist Party does not have the same level of goodwill towards Americans as the Christian Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, as part of the military exercise, more than 20,000 U.S. troops and a large amount of equipment were deployed to West Germany and the Netherlands.

Tactical nuclear weapons storage facilities are undergoing routine inspections, and special convoys transporting nuclear warheads are moving along West Germany's highways late at night, escorted by military police on both sides and patrolled by helicopters overhead—although these are all "routine procedures," in the current tense atmosphere, each military truck bearing special cargo markings is like a probe stimulating Europe's nerves.

On November 2nd, the Excellent Shooter 83 exercise officially began.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

According to the pre-set script, the exercise simulated a scenario in which the Warsaw Pact launched a large-scale conventional offensive in Central Europe. After NATO's conventional forces failed to resist, they were forced to escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, and then further escalate to a strategic nuclear strike—ultimately ending the exercise with NATO launching a full-scale nuclear attack on the Soviet Union as the "victory".

The annual elite marksman exercises usually did not attract special attention from the Soviet Union because they were highly procedural in form and content, and the Soviet intelligence system was very familiar with the patterns of these exercises.

But this time in 1983 was different.

This exercise used entirely new communication procedures and encryption formats. New communication protocols are usually only used when preparing for actual combat operations; peacetime exercises do not require changes to communication processes.

The exercise also simulated for the first time on a large scale the entire process of nuclear decision-making involving top political leaders, including the US president and the secretary of defense—in previous exercises, the highest-ranking roles were played by mid- to low-ranking military officers.

The exercise scenario also envisioned NATO raising its readiness level to the highest level—equivalent to DEFCON 1, a state of full-scale nuclear war. This level was never activated in actual combat throughout the entire Cold War; even during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the United States only raised it to DEFCON 2.

The most crucial issue is the timing of the exercise, which coincided perfectly with the invasion of Grenada, the chaos in Italy, and the large-scale deployment of US troops in West Germany!

Soviet intelligence was accustomed to connecting isolated events into chains of evidence for analysis, and at this point in early November 1983, all the isolated events happened to form a perfect chain of evidence pointing to the same conclusion:

NATO is using military exercises as cover to prepare for a nuclear strike against the Soviet Union.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

KGB agents around the world were frantically gathering so-called "evidence," a requirement of Operation Ryan and a rule for their survival within the system.

Action must be taken to prove the leader right; any action based on facts rather than the leader's intentions could have disastrous consequences.

The lights in the offices of the British Ministry of Defence are on all night—in reality, it may just be cleaning staff working overtime.

Military hospitals in West Germany were increasing their blood reserves—in reality, it was just a routine blood donation drive.

The frequency of entry and exit to the underground parking lot at NATO headquarters has increased by 30 percent—actually because a heating system malfunction has forced staff to frequently enter and exit the building to go to temporary offices next door.

Each piece of intelligence, taken individually, is insignificant or even absurd, but when they are compiled at the analysis center in Moscow and pieced together by intelligence officers already infected with Andropov's fear, they become a chilling picture:

The West is making final preparations for war!

Andropov convened an emergency meeting the day after the exercise began. Attendees included Defense Minister Ustinov, Chief of the General Staff Ogarkov, KGB Chairman Chebrikov, and Foreign Minister Gromyko.

At this meeting, even reformists like Ogarkov expressed their concerns:

He didn't think NATO would actually launch an attack, but he believed the Soviet Union had to respond in kind just in case, because if it really was an attack and the Soviet Union wasn't prepared, the consequences would be unbearable for anyone!