Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

Under Shao Zhengzong's offensive, Liu Liankun, unable to resist the temptation, was thus drawn into the scheme.

After implicating Liu Liankun, Shao Zhengzong immediately reported that Liu Liankun intended to become a Taiwanese spy. Taiwan took the matter very seriously and sent Pang Jiajun, the deputy director of the Sixth Military Intelligence Bureau, to meet with him.

After meeting, the Taiwanese side promised that as long as Liu Liankun joined them, he would immediately become a major general in the National Revolutionary Army. He would not only receive a monthly salary of thousands of US dollars, but also receive an extra bonus for each piece of intelligence he provided. The bonus would be distributed according to the level of intelligence and there would be no upper limit. All of this money would be transferred to Liu Liankun's overseas account.

In addition, Liu Liankun can go abroad to live out his retirement, and Taiwan will provide him with a pension.

Faced with the temptation from Taiwan, Liu Liankun agreed to their request without much thought and became a spy for Taiwan, codenamed "Shaokang No. 2".

Not long after Liu Liankun became "Shaokang No. 2", the Taiwanese side used the same method to recruit another major general in the People's Liberation Army, namely Liu Guangzhi, the president of the Air Force Command Academy. In addition to this identity, he was also a representative of the National People's Congress!

Liu Guangzhi's situation was similar to that of Shao Zhengzong and Liu Liankun. He was also driven by greed and could not resist the temptation of the high salaries promised by the Taiwanese side, which led him to betray the organization and become "Shaokang No. 3" in the Taiwanese spy plan.

Thus, the Taiwanese spy program included two major generals and a senior colonel, all three being high-ranking figures in the People's Liberation Army. This demonstrates the immense threat this Taiwanese spy program posed to the PLA, and the program was described by Ding Yuzhou, the director of the Taiwanese Military Intelligence Bureau, as the bureau's "crown jewel."

During the 90s, China's economic situation was not optimistic, much lower than in the original timeline. In another timeline, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, China absorbed a great deal of technology, manufacturing equipment and talent from the Soviet Union at extremely low prices. Without the buff of the legacy of its big brother, China was now living a relatively frugal life.

Given the backdrop of wavering ideologies and inconsistent policies in recent years, it is quite normal for many high-ranking officials in China to defect.

For example, Major General Ji Shengde, then Deputy Director of the Intelligence Department of the General Staff in the 90s, was corrupted by money and sold a large amount of Chinese military intelligence to US intelligence agencies; another example is Senior Colonel Xu Junping, then Director of the American and Oceanian Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense, who leaked more than 300 detailed profiles of high-ranking Chinese leaders to the US. The US then used these lists to analyze weaknesses and infiltrate more high-ranking Chinese officials. He defected to the US in 2000 under the guise of a business trip and has not been apprehended to this day...

Since the People's Liberation Army (PLA) began conducting exercises in July 1995 in an attempt to demonstrate its "capability to liberate Taiwan by force" and thus deter Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan has been instigating mainland spies to send all intelligence about the exercises to NATO.

At the start of the military exercises, Taiwanese residents living by the sea could hear the sound of artillery shells coming from afar almost every day. Panic gripped the Taiwanese population; large numbers of people rushed to banks to withdraw money and to supermarkets to stockpile supplies. Wealthy individuals even chartered planes to flee Taiwan, not wanting to stay a moment longer.

Taiwan's military intelligence bureau offered significantly more incentives, not only to the three high-ranking PLA officers, but also to spies in government agencies, offering them more money to procure more intelligence. Among them, Liu Liankun was the one who leaked the most secrets.

In order to accurately transmit military secrets, Liu Liankun would secretly record his conversations with his superiors or participate in operational deployment meetings, and then transmit information such as the missile configuration for military exercises to the Taiwanese authorities via audio tapes.

That's how outrageous it is, and that's how simple and unpretentious it is!

Liu Liankun's trip and actions completely disrupted the PLA's plans. After learning about the PLA's operational deployment and numerous weaknesses during the exercises that were only known to the PLA, Taiwan immediately formulated a countermeasure plan based on the intelligence and contacted the US military to request support.

...

Intelligence about the PLA's exercises, which were essentially exposed to everyone, was thus transmitted from Taipei to Washington.

After receiving this intelligence, CIA analysts made their own judgments:

Since the PLA's exercises have been clearly defined as deterrent rather than war preparations, the United States can confidently demonstrate its strength!

The PLA's current amphibious warfare capabilities, judging from the number of hovercraft, the tonnage of landing ships, and the level of air cover, are completely insufficient to support a full-scale landing operation against Taiwan. The PLA Navy lags behind the US Pacific Fleet in tonnage, technology, and training levels, and its missiles are still largely blank.

In particular, the Americans know that the only active hovercraft in the PLA is the Type 724 hovercraft landing craft, which entered service in 1994 and currently has only about 30 vessels!

As for large landing ships—there are 5, but there are more than 100 small 150-ton landing ships. Can this scale really be used for amphibious landings?

As for air power? The mainstay of the PLA Air Force is still the J-8. A few years ago, they bought some Su-27s from the Soviet Union. China and the Soviet Union are still developing and improving the Su-27, but there are no results yet.

Taiwan not only has F-16s, but also French Mirage 2000s. If a real war breaks out, it's questionable whether the PLA can guarantee air superiority over Taiwan, let alone involve US bases nearby.

What about the navy?

The largest surface combat ships in the Chinese Navy previously were the Type 051 destroyers, which were designed in the 60s and began entering service in the 70s. Around 1996, there were still about sixteen or seventeen in service. These ships had a full-load displacement of about 3700 tons, and their main armament consisted of anti-ship missiles and naval guns. Their air defense capabilities were extremely weak, basically only having point air defense capabilities and no area air defense.

In the naval warfare environment of the mid-90s, these ships would have had almost no chance of surviving attacks from carrier-based aircraft and land-based air forces. The United States could have easily destroyed these ships, just as easily as it had crushed Iran a few years ago.

A slightly better ship was the Type 052 destroyer, but China only built two – the "Harbin" and the "Qingdao". These two ships were the product of the Chinese Navy's first attempt at modern destroyers, equipped with French Sea Rattlesnake surface-to-air missiles and Italian guns, with a displacement of approximately 4800 tons. They represented a significant improvement over the Type 051, but their numbers were too small, and their air defense capabilities remained limited, only capable of basic air defense.

In terms of frigates, there are mainly various modifications of the Type 053 series, numbering around thirty or forty. However, they are small in tonnage and have varying levels of weaponry. Many are still coastal defense vessels with limited ocean-going combat capabilities.

The only ships in the Chinese Navy that could pose a threat to the United States were the three Sovremenny-class destroyers purchased during the Sino-Soviet friendship period a couple of years ago. The Soviet Sovremenny-class destroyers had a full-load displacement of about 8000 tons, and their most crucial weapon was the SSN-22 "Moskit" missile.

This was one of the fastest anti-ship missiles in the world at the time, with a terminal speed exceeding Mach 2.5 as it skimmed the sea. The US Aegis system had an extremely narrow interception window against it. Each Sovremenny-class destroyer carried eight missiles, which was considered a serious threat to carrier strike groups by the Western military at the time—not that it could definitely sink an aircraft carrier, but it was enough to make carrier strike group commanders seriously consider this risk when formulating operational plans.

Therefore, the Chinese Navy in 1996 was essentially a coastal defense-oriented green-water navy. Even with three Sovremenny-class destroyers capable of posing a threat to aircraft carriers, its long-range operational capability remained virtually zero. Its main existing deterrent methods were shore-based anti-ship missiles, near-shore submarine ambushes, and anti-ship missile attacks by shore-based air forces.

Once outside the cover of shore-based firepower, the Chinese Navy would be essentially easy prey in a direct confrontation with US and Japanese fleets on the high seas.

The Pentagon analysis suggests that the Chinese Navy would not dare to deploy, or at least not leave its shore-based core area. Its main role is to remain within the protection range of shore-based firepower as a "presence fleet" similar to the German High Seas Fleet.

Now Gephardt was completely relieved; a gambler who knows his opponent's hand becomes much bolder.

Gephardt immediately agreed to the proposal to move the navy to the east of Taiwan for exercises. In order to demonstrate NATO unity, he also invited a number of small countries, including Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Australia, to participate in the military exercises, so as to show off America’s strength and find an excuse to collect protection money in East Asia (the key point).

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

The White House's assurances finally reassured Lee Teng-hui, who then began openly mocking the People's Liberation Army in his speeches on the island.

Taipei, November 1995.

When facing Taiwanese media and supporters, Lee Teng-hui became very emotional and couldn't help but reveal intelligence that should have been a military secret:

"Fellow countrymen, the mainland is making a big fuss, saying they've launched dozens of missiles—but what happened? Blanks! All of the CCP's actions are under our control. The mainland's missiles are all blanks! The warheads are merely precision testing systems..."

He smiled, and his supporters in the audience smiled too.

"Blank bombs! Do you know what blank bombs are? They're like fireworks. 'Bang!' They're fired, and then nothing happens. They don't even leave a crater in the ground!"

He paused, his expression turning slightly serious.

"Fellow villagers, there is no need to be afraid. As I have said before—the people's desires are always in my heart. The safety of the 23 million people in Taiwan is my responsibility. We are not afraid of the mainland firing blanks, we are not afraid of the mainland conducting landing exercises, why? Because they cannot defeat us!"

Frankly speaking, their navy is inferior to ours, and their air force is no match for our American F-16s. Their landing craft were sunk by our anti-ship missiles right in the middle of the strait!

"Remember, we are not fighting alone! The United States is our friend, Japan is our neighbor, and the free world will not stand idly by while an evil militaristic dictatorship threatens Taiwan with force. So I tell you to live your lives in peace, the election will proceed as scheduled, and freedom will not be intimidated by the mainland's missiles!"

This statement was broadcast on Taiwanese television and then reprinted by major international media outlets. The phrase "The missiles launched by the mainland are blanks" instantly became an international news headline, and many international media outlets, always eager for drama, contacted the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs to inquire about its view on Taiwan's claim that the missiles were blanks intended to scare people.

Panic ensued within the People's Liberation Army. The strategy of firing blanks at Taiwan was a top-secret military plan, and very few people knew about it. How did Lee Teng-hui, far away in Taiwan, find out?!

It's likely that they have a spy within their ranks, and a very high-ranking one at that.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

In January 1996, two U.S. Navy carrier strike groups were deployed to the Western Pacific. The USS Nimitz departed from San Diego, crossed the Pacific Ocean, and headed towards the waters east of Taiwan, while the USS Independence departed from Yokosuka, Japan, and sailed south into the Philippine Sea.

The two carrier battle groups, along with escorting cruisers, destroyers, and attack submarines, have a total tonnage of over 250,000 tons.

This is the largest naval force deployment by the United States in the Asia-Pacific region since the Vietnam War.

The Pentagon's statement was restrained: "Routine patrols and training by the U.S. Navy in the Western Pacific."

But the whole world knows this is not routine—the simultaneous appearance of two aircraft carriers east of Taiwan is a show of force to Beijing.

Then Gephardt also brought along ships from Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Australia. The Southeast Asian monkeys and Australia sent some frigates and destroyers, while Japan sent their big ships, as yet another test of "national normalization".

Japan has dispatched two helicopter carriers—nominally destroyers, as the Japanese constitution prohibits the possession of aircraft carriers, hence the designation of their quasi-aircraft carriers as destroyers. In reality, each can carry over a dozen helicopters, and has a large deck area. Crucially, however, they are not carrying helicopters but rather vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) fighter jets!

Clearly, Japan hopes to showcase its "aircraft carrier" to its citizens in order to gain higher support for the right wing and awaken national self-confidence.

The Japanese side called the exercise "maintaining peace and stability in the Western Pacific, demonstrating NATO unity, and curbing the militarism of certain aggressive countries."

This wording immediately ignited Beijing's anger. Japan is the least qualified to say such a thing! China demanded an apology from Japan in strong terms and withdrew its diplomatic embassy from Osaka, but the Japanese political scene, which has already shifted to the right, clearly doesn't care much about China.

Lee Teng-hui has become even more arrogant. With two US aircraft carriers supporting him in eastern Taiwan and a Japanese quasi-aircraft carrier standing by his side, Lee Teng-hui feels more confident than ever before.

He began to give frequent speeches on the island.

The themes of each speech were similar, such as "Taiwan is not afraid of threats," "We will not succumb to missiles," and "Taiwan's future is decided by the Taiwanese people themselves," with each speech being bolder than the last.

He began his speech by mentioning Taiwan's international space, implying that Taiwan should have independent diplomatic rights. He mentioned Taiwan's subjectivity—a term that, in the Chinese political context, is only a step away from "independence."

He said, "Twenty-three million people live on this land of Taiwan. They have their own government, their own army, their own currency, and their own passports. They elect their own president and make their own laws. Anywhere in the world, this would be called a country. Why is it that in Taiwan—can't it be called an independent country?"

"Because someone told me not to call out."

"Just because you can't call it that doesn't mean it isn't. If you don't call the sun 'the sun,' does that mean it won't shine?"

The applause of the audience was thunderous.

Even knowing that its intelligence had been leaked, and even though it shouldn't be launching a large-scale military operation at this time, Beijing could no longer tolerate it. It had to make a sufficient show of its stance, even if it meant—even if it meant risking everything!

Since 1840, China has endured over a century of national humiliation. Finally, with the unity and concerted efforts of the Party and the people, the foreign invaders were driven out. Even right after the end of the civil war, China dared to fight the seemingly invincible UN forces in Korea!

Did countless revolutionary predecessors sacrifice their lives to create a China like this? Even after so many years, must China still bitterly swallow one humiliation after another?

The Americans know China's intelligence, but China does not know the intelligence from the United States. Although the United States has repeatedly assured that it will not intrude into China's waters, that it is just an exercise and that it is in constant communication with China to ensure that no accidental clashes will occur, the People's Liberation Army will never place its hopes on the United States' assurances.

Especially those damned Japanese, those devils never give up their desire to destroy China, and then there's the United States, the Philippines, Indonesia...

This scene, reminiscent of a second invasion of China by the Eight-Nation Alliance, solidified Jiang Zemin's resolve.

"China is never afraid of sacrifice. If you dare to come, we dare to fight! We, the sons and daughters of China, are not afraid of you invaders!"

In late January 1996, as NATO fleets began to assemble in the Western Pacific, China began internal mobilization, with a large number of veterans being re-enlisted, cities organizing air defense and nuclear, biological and chemical defense drills, some coastal cities imposing curfews and implementing blackouts, and some important coastal industries beginning to relocate inland.

The Warsaw Pact paid close attention to this, and Slava believed that China had demonstrated its determination to defend its sovereignty, and now was a good opportunity to help China. Therefore, Slava ordered the Pacific Fleet with the Varyag carrier battle group to assemble in the Sea of ​​Japan, while the battle group with the Ulyanovsk carrier, which had been transferred from the Mediterranean, moved from the Indian Ocean toward Southeast Asia.

After issuing the order, Slava sent Jiang Huaimin an invitation to a joint exercise. The Warsaw Pact would organize an exercise in the Western Pacific to counter NATO, and hoped that China could join the exercise as a "specially invited country" and provide the venue.

Meanwhile, China's determination to tear off a piece of the invader's flesh, even at the cost of its own life, successfully frightened the White House. Gephart called overnight to assure the White House that the exercise was a blank round and said that Chinese representatives could be invited to observe the exercise. Later, he changed his mind and said that the exercise location could be set further away.

Gruphart genuinely didn't want to clash with China or cause an accidental conflict; he was in the Asia-Pacific region to collect money, not to protect allies. Therefore, during the exercises, Gruphart explicitly demanded that countries with grudges against China, such as Japan, prohibit their ships from entering Chinese waters.

In late February 1996, the People's Liberation Army conducted another round of missile tests.

The timing this time was extremely precise. March 23rd was Taiwan's presidential election, the first time in Taiwan's history that a president was directly elected by the people, and Lee Teng-hui was the most popular candidate.

The People's Liberation Army announced two missile target areas:

First: About 30 to 40 nautical miles off the coast of Keelung;

The second one: off the coast of Kaohsiung, about 40 to 50 nautical miles away.

Keelung and Kaohsiung are Taiwan's two most important ports, one in the north and one in the south. Launching missiles into the waters off these two ports effectively brackets Taiwan's maritime lifeline.

All merchant ships and oil tankers entering and leaving Taiwan had to pass through these two ports. By blocking Keelung and Kaohsiung, Taiwan's foreign trade was cut off.

This test launch, however, plunged Beijing into an even deeper defeat. The People's Liberation Army launched three Dongfeng-15 ballistic missiles, this time with live ammunition, but only one landed in the designated area; all the others missed their targets.

The cause was confirmed in subsequent analysis: the United States interfered with GPS signals.

The guidance system of the Dongfeng-15 was not advanced. During this period, there were two main types: one relied solely on inertial navigation in the terminal phase, and the other added GPS correction to inertial navigation. Inertial navigation systems have cumulative errors, and the longer the flight time, the greater the deviation. The role of GPS correction is to pull the missile back to the correct trajectory in the terminal phase of flight.

GPS cooperation was conducted during the honeymoon period between China and the US, and it was only installed on a limited number of models. At that time, the circular error probable (CEP) of the Dongfeng-15 was estimated by various parties to be between 300 and 600 meters. This was sufficient for striking area targets such as ports and airports, but if a politically motivated demonstration required precise landing in a designated small area of ​​sea, this accuracy could become problematic.

The United States deployed electronic warfare aircraft and shipborne electronic equipment in the Western Pacific to extensively interfere with GPS signals in the area covered by the Dongfeng-15's flight path. By sending false GPS positioning signals, the missile's guidance system "thought" that it was in the correct position when in fact it had already deviated from its course.

This is the first time the United States has used GPS misdirection in a military context. It wasn't used in the Iraq War because Iraq didn't have this feature for ballistic missiles. Obviously, it was very successful in terms of actual combat results.

After the accident, Jiang Huaimin directly asked the military industry department if they could temporarily use the Soviet GLONASS navigation system. However, the military industry department told him that the missile was equipped with a GPS receiver module, which only recognized the signal frequency band and encoding method of GPS and could not directly process GLONASS signals.

Following this incident, China urgently ordered a large number of GLONASS navigation devices and supporting modules from the Soviet Union and immediately began the research and development of its own satellite navigation system.

In the original timeline, China only realized the urgency of having its own satellite navigation system after the Gulf War in 1991 and the seizure of the Yinhe satellite by the United States in 1993, and thus initiated the Beidou project in 1994. However, in this timeline, the United States did not fight as decisively in the Gulf War, and the full power of GPS was not utilized. The United States also did not seize the Yinhe satellite in 1993. In addition, China was facing economic difficulties at that time, so Beidou is still only a concept document to this day.

As for Lee Teng-hui, Gephart was unwilling to provoke Beijing any further. China's previous desperate attitude had indeed frightened him. He strictly ordered Lee Teng-hui not to provoke the mainland and not to expose the incident of the Dongfeng-15 missile going astray.

Lee Teng-hui dared to speak ill of the mainland, but dared not disobey his American father, so he immediately became low-key.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

On March 3, a new message emerged.

Japan announced that it will send two aircraft carriers and other large destroyers to join the US exercise fleet in the Western Pacific.

In an effort to instill sufficient national confidence in the people, the right-wing government sent destroyers with World War II names, such as "Kaga" and "Kongo," to participate in the exercise. These ships had participated in the Battle of Jiangyin during the Battle of Shanghai and annihilated the Republic of China Navy.

Lee Teng-hui showed absolutely no shame in this matter, and expressed his welcome to Japan demonstrating its strength.

Japan, a country that surrendered unconditionally in 1945 and committed heinous crimes against China, including the Nanjing Massacre, during World War II, sent its warships to China's doorstep. The Americans ensured that Japanese ships did not enter the East China Sea.

As a result, Japanese ships conducted joint exercises with the US military at a location more than 30 kilometers east of the Senkaku Islands, and only more than 20 kilometers away from Taisho Island.

Taisho Island also has another name – Chiwei Island. The small islands surrounding Chiwei Island are currently under Japanese control and are called the Senkaku Islands by Japan, but they are all China's legitimate territory.

Located more than 30 kilometers southwest of Chiwei Islet is the Diaoyu Islands, which are also under Japanese control. (Control was gradually transferred to China only after China began routine patrols in 2012.)

The moment the news reached Beijing, Jiang Zemin smashed the teacup on the table to pieces.

He had never felt so powerless and humiliated. The PLA's missiles were deflected by GPS jamming, Lee Teng-hui mocked them as paper tigers on stage, two US aircraft carriers were swaggering east of Taiwan, and now Japan was here too—damn Japanese devils!

He really had murderous intent. Two years ago, after Japan began to seek national normalization by turning to the right, the Soviet Union secretly contacted China and proposed that if Japan broke away from control and embarked on the path of militarism, China and the Soviet Union would take action against Japan in accordance with the enemy state clauses of Articles 53, 77 and 107 of the Charter of the United Nations.

The enemy state clause was essentially a special legal arrangement established by the Allied powers after World War II to prevent defeated nations such as Germany, Italy, and Japan from launching another invasion.

The clauses stipulate that if fascist or militaristic countries such as Germany, Italy, and Japan resume their aggressive policies, the founding members of the United Nations, including China, France, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have the right to take direct military action against them without prior authorization from the UN Security Council.

This clause is a major exception to the peaceful principle of "no use of force without authorization from the Security Council," and is designed to firmly constrain the behavior of defeated countries at the level of international law and prevent the revival of their militarism.

Of course, the US-Japan Security Treaty and other treaties after World War II allowed Japan to circumvent enemy clauses, but this kind of cleverness was obviously ineffective against the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union had always been proactive in sending troops, and Slava inherited the characteristics of his teacher Andropov's teacher—that is, his mentor Brezhnev—not particularly concerned about things like national sovereignty.

The Yugoslav Wars demonstrates Slavia's characteristics through the Yugoslav Wars. The deployment of 100,000 Warsaw Pact troops on the Hungarian border clearly indicated that "if the UN Security Council does not approve it, the Warsaw Pact will directly cross the border to export revolution; if the Security Council approves it, it will be a peacekeeping force."

The Soviet Union respected Old Zhong largely because Slava knew that Old Zhong was a large entity, and that cooperation would be far more beneficial to the Soviet Union than oppression. If it were any other vassal state that dared to challenge the Soviet Union back then, they would have been crushed by Brezhnev's tanks countless times.

This made China somewhat suspicious after learning about the Soviet Union's war plan against Japan, "climbing Mount Naroda," fearing that the Soviet Union wanted to annex Japan and then find an opportunity to pressure Lao Zhong, and that bringing Lao Zhong into the fold was purely to share international firepower.