Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

Iraq's air defense system attempted to resist in the first few days. However, the Iraqi air defense forces were poorly trained; they lacked the complete air defense system of the Soviet Union and were instead using static air defense tactics against the Americans—resulting in Iraqi air defense missiles tracking back along radar waves before they could even lock onto anti-radiation missiles.

Turning on the radar is suicidal. Once the air defense radar is turned on, the US electronic warfare aircraft will lock onto its position, and then a Shrike or HARM anti-radiation missile will fly over.

Iraq's air defense forces quickly learned one thing—to keep their radar off. While turning off radar at least prevents targeted elimination, an air defense force without radar is essentially defenseless.

Iraq's skies have been completely lost.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

On January 24, Saddam played his last card.

On the evening of the 24th, Iraq launched a batch of Scud ballistic missiles from a launch site in the western part of the country. The Scud is the Soviet-designed R-17 ballistic missile, NATO designation SS-1 Scud. It has a range of about 300 kilometers. The Iraqis modified it themselves, extending the range but sacrificing accuracy.

It couldn't carry nuclear warheads—at least Saddam didn't have any; it carried conventional high-explosive warheads containing several hundred kilograms of explosives.

The missile rose from the desert in western Iraq, swept across the sky, and landed in Tel Aviv, Israel.

"boom!"

The first missiles landed in residential areas of Tel Aviv. Explosions echoed through the city in the dead of night, scattering debris and glass everywhere. Some warheads landed next to apartment buildings, the shockwaves shattering windows on several floors, cracking walls, and causing plasterboard to fall from ceilings. Others landed in open areas, creating large craters.

A number of missiles landed in Haifa, and due to inaccuracy, some also landed in Palestinian territory.

Civilians were awakened from their sleep by the bombing. Air raid sirens wailed over the city, and people jumped out of bed, grabbing gas masks and running to air raid shelters—the Israeli government had distributed gas masks to every household before the war began because the Americans said Saddam had chemical weapons.

The casualty report was quickly sent to the Israeli Ministry of Defense. There were civilian casualties and a large number of buildings destroyed. This was a direct military attack on a sovereign country that had not participated in the war!

Saddam Hussein's plan was to drag Israel into this, and he successfully angered Israel.

The moment news of the bombings of Tel Aviv and Haifa reached Jerusalem, Israel's war machine began to turn. Israeli Air Force F-15s and F-16s were on standby at airbases, pilots already in their cockpits, engines running. Israel's Jericho ballistic missiles were in their silos, ready to launch.

The Israeli cabinet held an emergency meeting late at night.

The Israeli prime minister faces only one question: to fight or not to fight?

Israel never retaliates when attacked!

This has been the ironclad rule of this country for the past sixty years: 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973... Every time Israel was attacked, it fought back, and fought back even harder than its opponents!

P.S.: As for why I was beaten, don't ask. If you ask, it's because of anti-Semitism; if you ask further, it's because of the wisdom of a thousand years of wandering.

This ironclad rule is not just a military strategy; it is the very foundation of Israel's existence: when surrounded by a group of enemies, if you show weakness by not fighting back, you are finished.

But how should Israel fight? Should it only retaliate against Iraq? But the missiles would have to fly over Syria, and with hundreds of thousands of Warsaw Pact troops stationed there, how would the Soviet Union react? And what would the United States do?

Fighting could trigger a confrontation with the Soviet Union; not fighting would shatter Israel's ironclad rule, and every future enemy would know that Israel can be attacked without retaliating.

The news that the Israeli Ministry of Defense had declared a state of war immediately spread from Jerusalem to the world.

Israel did not immediately retaliate, and now everyone is watching to see what Washington and Moscow will do next.

During those few hours of waiting, the entire Middle East and the entire world hung on a thread.

Chapter 116 Israel: Sons of Onsaar, come and help your father fight!

Jerusalem was just recovering from the chaos in the early hours of the morning when Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir addressed the nation on television. International media, especially European countries, were paying close attention to the Israeli issue.

Behind Shamir, the Israeli flag, white with the blue Star of David, fluttered amidst the smoke, with residential buildings destroyed by Iraqi missiles in the background. He angrily said:

"Last night, Iraqi missiles landed on Tel Aviv and Haifa! Israeli citizens were attacked in their own homes, resulting in numerous casualties. We will not tolerate this!"

"Israel has entered a state of war. Israel will retaliate strongly against Iraq; we will not sit idly by and wait for others to avenge us."

Israel has never entrusted its security to others. From 1948 to today, Israel has defended its existence with its own army, its own people, and its own will, and the same will be true today!

He looked directly into the camera and declared Israel's accession with unwavering certainty:

"To those who try to destroy us—whether you are in Baghdad or anywhere else, if you attack us, we will make you pay tenfold!"

Less than an hour after the speech, Israeli Air Force F-15s and F-16s took off from the Negev Air Base, bypassed Syria, flew over Jordanian airspace, and headed straight for missile launch sites in western Iraq.

While the United States and the Soviet Union were urgently discussing the situation, Israel had already officially entered the war.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

At this moment, Baghdad

Saddam Hussein had been waiting for this moment! Within hours of news of Israel's entry into the war reaching Baghdad, Iraqi state television and radio launched a full-scale propaganda offensive into the Arab world.

Iraq's propaganda machine was running at full capacity, with Saddam Hussein himself speaking on television. He stood in front of an Iraqi flag, dressed in military uniform and wearing a beret.

His speech will be addressed to the entire Arab world, and he will completely rewrite the narrative of the entire war:

“My dear brothers and sisters! You see now—this is no longer a war against American hegemony, but an attack on the Arab nation by a joint force of Zionism and American imperialism! Israeli planes are bombing Arab lands right now! The United States and Israel are joining hands to destroy the Arab world!”

He wants to repackage himself as a defender of Palestine, a protector of Lebanon, a comrade-in-arms of Syria, and a spokesperson for all Arab peoples oppressed by Israel!

"Iraq is fighting for the entire Arab world! Arab nation, unite!"

This rhetoric is indeed effective on the streets of Arab countries. Pro-Saddam demonstrations have appeared in Egypt, as well as in Saudi Arabia. King Hussein of Jordan, who has been walking a tightrope, unwilling to publicly take sides, is now facing overwhelming public pressure at home. Many Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank are holding up portraits of Saddam.

Even in Arab countries where governments opposed Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the people began to waver after Israel entered the war.

Iraq attacked Israel and was counterattacked by Israel? Then Iraq is a hero! Every Israeli bomb helps Saddam rebuild his image in the Arab world.

------

At this very moment, on the other side of the world, the White House is shrouded in gloom.

It's 2 a.m. Israel's sudden declaration of war on Iraq has woken up its American son, and everyone in the White House has to get up and work overtime.

President Gephardt is having a huge tantrum.

“Damn it, I told you so!” He paced back and forth in the Oval Office. “I said—don’t let Israel get involved! I’ve said that from the very beginning! These damned Jewish dogs are forcing us to throw more into this cesspool of the Middle East!”

"Ahem, Mr. President, Israeli lobbying groups are active in Congress. Please do not discuss your remarks publicly." The White House Secretary glanced outside the door to make sure no one was there before speaking to Gephart.

His national security advisor sat on the sofa, looking rather grim.

"Mr. President, Israel is a sovereign state, and theoretically we have no right to—"

"I know for a damn thing that it's a sovereign state! But the moment Israel got involved, Saddam got the narrative he wanted! Look at Cairo! Look at Amman! Look at Gaza! Israel attacked Iraq, and half the Arab world sided with Saddam!"

Gerphart is a Democratic president who rose to power through anti-war policies. He instinctively abhors the escalation of war, and if it weren't for the fact that the United States needed a decisive victory to "achieve a decade of rise in one war," he would never have wanted to send troops into the Middle East.

In his ideal scenario, the United States should use overwhelming military force to quickly resolve Iraq and then go home.

Clean, efficient, and without any unnecessary delays, just like the dreamlike moment when MacArthur said he would bring his soldiers home before Christmas.

The reality was harsh. While the Soviet Union was indeed humiliated by Iraq, it wouldn't want to see Iraq overthrown by the United States. Saddam was a bastard, but he was a bastard on the Soviet side! The Warsaw Pact's deployment of 20 additional troops to Syria was clearly intended to prevent the US military from betraying its promises and quickly entering Iraq within days.

The US military had conducted pre-war simulations, and theoretically, if the Soviet Union did not intervene, the US military could have broken through Iraq within two weeks, overthrown the Iraqi regime, killed Saddam Hussein, and replaced him with a loyalist.

However, the Soviet Union's intervention forced the US military to back down and launch an offensive from the direction of Kuwait to help Kuwait regain its independence, at most only venturing near the Iraqi border.

The cost of the war thus increased, and because the Soviet Union's earlier surprise attack at the United Nations prevented the United States from gaining a moral advantage in the early stages, Arab countries were less willing to join the coalition.

Historically, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, the UAE, and Egypt all joined the coalition, with these Middle Eastern countries pooling together nearly 10 troops to fight in Iraq. But now, only Saudi Arabia has joined the coalition—and even that's just a symbolic 2000 troops!

Because Saudi Arabia was bearing the costs of the war, everyone originally thought they would follow their big brother and rush in to slaughter Iraq, recovering the war costs by robbing Iraq. But now their big brother says Iraq cannot be attacked, but they cannot leave empty-handed this time.

As a result of these multiple factors, the willingness of Middle Eastern countries to join the war has plummeted, which has caused the cost for the United States to appease Israel to rise sharply!

In the original timeline, the US desperately tried to contain Israel because the coalition included Arab countries like Egypt, Syria, and Saudi Arabia; any move by Israel would disintegrate the alliance. However, in this new timeline, this alliance doesn't exist—the UN Security Council resolution to use force was vetoed, the US acted unilaterally, and most Arab countries remained bystanders.

Israel's retaliation against Iraq won't destroy something that doesn't exist, like a stick.

The US has lost its biggest excuse to contain Israel, but its needs remain unchanged.

The United States cannot allow Israel to expand the war to Syria and Lebanon because there are Soviet troops stationed in Syria, which is a slippery slope to direct conflict between the US and the Soviet Union. Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US and the Soviet Union did not have such a direct confrontation! Moreover, the 20 troops in Syria are not only Soviet troops, but also Warsaw Pact forces, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and East Germany.

If a local conflict between the Warsaw Pact and NATO escalates into a full-blown conflict, everyone will be doomed.

The US cannot allow Israel to retaliate in such a comprehensive manner. What if it drags the Arab world into Iraq? Will it start a sixth Middle East war? If the situation in the Middle East gets out of control and oil supplies are disrupted, it will be a fatal blow to the US economy, which is recovering from a recession.

This is why Gephart is having a headache.

At that moment, Secretary of State James Baker walked in.

"Dick, here's your coffee. Have some coffee to calm down first." "Okay, whatever you say."

The president and the secretary of state clinked coffee. Shell waited until Gephart's anger subsided before speaking.

"Mr. President, I have a different opinion."

Baker was a cold-blooded realist. He didn't act based on morality or personal likes and dislikes, but solely on national interests. He was a regular at the White House, a key advisor to successive presidents, and had served in the White House ever since he helped Nixon win the 1971 election.

Historically, he served as a campaign advisor to five U.S. presidents: Nixon, Ford, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush. Baker was a constant presence in the presidential race.

None of these old Dengs, who had been in politics for many years during the Cold War, were easy to deal with.

“Mr. President, I don’t think Israel’s involvement in the war is all bad for us.”

Gephart raised his eyebrows and looked at him.

"Okay, I know you don't want to hear this—you have to let me finish."

Baker analyzed.

"First, the Israeli Air Force is one of the strongest air forces in the Middle East. Its F-15 and F-16 pilots are just as well-trained as ours. If the Israeli Air Force participates in striking the Scud missile sites in western Iraq, then we won't have to do it ourselves. That would be a win."

He held up one finger.

"The Scud missile strike missions have been the most troublesome task for our air force these days. Those Iraqi launchers are mobile, they can hit and run, and our planes have made hundreds of sorties in the western Iraqi desert with very poor results."

This incident consumed a significant number of our fighter sorties, slowing down the airstrikes on the main battlefield. If Israel had done this themselves—we could have conveniently redeployed those aircraft to our main forces fighting Iraq.”

“Second!” Baker said, “Israel’s entry into the war created more uncertainty, which gave us a headache, but the Soviet Union had an even bigger headache!”

Israel is a mad dog; the greater the uncertainty it creates, the more motivated everyone, including the Soviet Union, is to end things as quickly as possible. Israel exerted greater pressure on the Soviet Union than we did.

He paused for a moment.

"We don't want war, and neither does the Soviet Union. Ivanov could have slowly mediated and applied pressure, but now that Israel has become a variable, he's in a more difficult position. Israel is attacking Iraq, Iraq is firing missiles at Israel, there are protests in the streets of the Arab world, and the situation is escalating every day. If the Soviet Union were to stop Iraq from firing missiles at Israel, its image in the Middle East would be ruined."

The cost of Soviet delays is rising sharply, which is the second win.

“Mr. President, we can send the Foreign Minister to Geneva right now to find the Soviets and get Saddam to stop and withdraw his troops. Otherwise, we can’t guarantee what Israel will do next.”

Baker smirked as he said this.

“Our best solution is not to hold Israel back, but to guide it to pressure the Soviet Union—I call it the mad dog strategy,” he said.

"We portrayed Israel to the outside world as a mad dog that we ourselves could not control, and then used this mad dog to bite indiscriminately to put pressure on the Soviet Union."

Gephardt nodded silently. He didn't particularly like this strategy, but he couldn't think of a better one.

“Third—” Baker continued, “Israel’s entry into the war was a probe to test the Soviet Union’s bottom line.”

Israel is not the US military. We can keep our distance from Israel's actions—'We have urged Israel to exercise restraint, but Israel is a sovereign state, and we cannot command it.' We can predict the Soviet Union's actual capacity to withstand pressure in the Middle East by observing its reaction to Israeli actions.

"The Soviet Union had 190,000 troops and numerous air defense positions in Syria. But when Israeli planes flew over Jordanian airspace to bomb western Iraq—what did the Soviet Union do? Nothing. Its air defense systems didn't fire on the Israeli aircraft. What does this tell us?"

The Soviet Union did not want to escalate the conflict. Its deployment in Syria was defensive and deterrent, not intended to start an air war with Israel.

This information is extremely important for our subsequent decisions. We can prevent Israel from flying over Jordan and instead provoke Syria directly, or we can simply let Israel take the opportunity to use 'counter-terrorism' operations in Lebanon to provoke Syria—Syria, as an Arab country, will certainly not swallow this insult!

If Syria could be pushed too far, the Soviet Union would have to think twice about its image among Arab countries if it wanted to control Syria.

Gephardt suddenly realized that he, as a president who rose to power through populism, was indeed somewhat lacking in experience compared to these Cold War veterans.

“You’ve convinced me, Baker.”

White House staff then held a meeting and came up with an operational plan within hours.

Ultimately, the White House reached a consensus: first, to outline an operational framework for Israel, allowing it to retaliate with airstrikes against Scud missile launch sites in western Iraq and deploy special forces to conduct anti-missile operations in the western Iraqi desert.

During Israeli operations, aircraft could "accidentally" enter Syrian airspace and incidentally attack any "terrorists" in Lebanon. Israel would bear the consequences of any actions it takes to strike Iraqi cities or civilian infrastructure.

The only red line is that attacks on Warsaw Pact troops and military bases are not permitted.

"By the way, we also need to open up satellite intelligence to Israel, provide aerial refueling support, and coordinate the air operations areas of both sides. The price Israel pays for using our help is to make concessions on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. After the war, we can lead the new Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and win more support from Middle Eastern Arab countries!"

Of course, these collaborations will be conducted in secrecy; publicly, we will only continue to say, 'We call on Israel to exercise restraint.'

Gephardt gave Baker a deep look and said, "Sometimes you frighten me."

Baker wasn't offended by those words; he closed the file and replied with a smile.

“Mr. President, this is our job. We cheat, we lie, we steal, and in the end we will win.”

“May America be great forever.” Gephart stood up and shook hands with Baker.

"May America be great forever." Baker nodded with a smile.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

12 hours later Vienna