Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

The other allies thought the US was going to attack Iraq, so they all followed the US and rushed in to divide up Iraq, plundering oil, gold, and equipment from Iraq!

The US's current stance is to not attack Iraq, but simply help Kuwait regain its independence, but the big brother's share can't be reduced—so everyone should chip in.

Hey buddy, what are you doing bringing so many soldiers here? Are we going to get attacked too?

King Fahd was covered in sweat and his face was deathly pale.

Saudi Arabia's worst fears have come true—the US seems determined to stay in the Middle East! Every penny the US military spends here comes from Saudi Arabia!

But what can he do? What can he do to America?

On October 3, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a new military assistance treaty, under which Saudi Arabia would provide $10 billion to support U.S. military operations in the Middle East. By this time, more than 90 U.S. troops had already been deployed in Saudi Arabia.

Most of them were concentrated along the eastern province of Saudi Arabia and the southern border of Kuwait. The first to arrive were the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions, who arrived by C-141 transport aircraft, with the equipment following by sea on transport ships.

The 1st and 3rd Panzer Divisions are being transferred from West Germany. These troops were originally intended to defend the Fulda Gap and prevent the Soviet armored onslaught from crushing West Germany. Now, although the Cold War is not over, the pressure in Europe has lessened considerably, so the United States is transferring the troops back.

This was also part of a gesture of goodwill towards the Soviet Union. The move to transfer troops from West Germany to the Middle East was a way of telling the Soviet Union that the United States had no intention of engaging in a direct confrontation with it.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Marine Corps 1st Expeditionary Force, which departed from California and has been traveling along the Pacific route, has now reached the Arabian Sea.

Currently, the U.S. military has deployed more than 1200 M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks, more than 800 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and 200 Apache attack helicopters in the Middle East.

In terms of air force, F-15Cs and F-15Es are deployed at King Fahd Air Base in Saudi Arabia and Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, while F-16s are deployed in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. F-111s were transferred directly from Lakenheath Air Base in the UK, with a refueling stop in Spain en route.

What worried the Soviets most was the F-117 stealth fighter-bomber. This aircraft had been used once in Panama in 1989, but the battlefield was too small to demonstrate its capabilities. This time was different; all thirty-six F-117s were deployed to Saudi Arabia at once, clearly intended as a technological demonstration to the world.

There's one more thing that hasn't made the news: Tomahawk cruise missiles. They lie quietly in the vertical launch systems of destroyers and cruisers in the Persian Gulf, their exact numbers unknown.

Although Britain and France either opposed or abstained from the previous Security Council vote on the US request for authorization to use force, they still symbolically sent some troops. Britain contributed a dozen or so attack aircraft, while France contributed a foreign legion of 2 personnel and some fighter jets.

Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, and other NATO member states also sent small numbers of personnel. International media reported that NATO member states' flags flew side-by-side in the Middle Eastern desert to demonstrate NATO unity.

As for the resolution on the use of force that the Soviet Union had previously vetoed at the UN Security Council? Nobody, including the Soviet Union, cared much about it.

On October 9, the main force of the U.S. Fifth Fleet arrived in the Persian Gulf.

The aircraft carriers USS Midway, USS Theodore Roosevelt, and USS Ranger deployed east of the Strait of Hormuz, turning the skies over the northern Persian Gulf into a training ground for the U.S. Navy.

With more than 200 carrier-based aircraft taking off every day, a CNN crew was stationed on the flight deck of the USS Roosevelt, their cameras pointed at the catapults as F-14s were launched, steam rising continuously from the tracks. The deck facilitator was making gestures, with earplugs in his ears and chewing gum in his mouth.

These images were played repeatedly in the American media.

It wasn't just carrier strike groups on the surface. Because of the impending amphibious landing operation, the U.S. Navy deployed three surface battle groups—the USS Missouri, the USS Wisconsin, and the USS Iowa.

By October 26, the United States had completed its deployment in the Red Sea. The three aircraft carriers, USS Kennedy, USS Saratoga, and USS America, passed through the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean Sea into the Red Sea, controlling Iraq's possible western front—although everyone knew that Iraq had no western front to speak of, having aircraft carriers in another direction provided an extra layer of security.

At this time, the total number of warships in the theater exceeded one hundred. Cruisers, destroyers, frigates, supply ships, minesweepers... Since the end of World War II, no country had dared to confront the invincible U.S. Navy's fleet head-on!

From the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Aden, a warship flying the Stars and Stripes can be seen every few dozen nautical miles along the entire route.

The United States had previously planned to deploy the USS Eisenhower to the Red Sea or the Mediterranean, but the Soviet Union protested, arguing that such a large number of aircraft carriers would be enough to fight not only Iraq but also France! As a result, the United States ultimately cancelled the deployment of the USS Eisenhower.

On November 1, the U.S. military conducted a second wave of troop reinforcements.

By this day, the United States had 440,000 ground troops in Saudi Arabia. More than 400 combat aircraft were taking off and landing 24 hours a day from various Saudi air bases, patrolling near the Iraqi border. Then, the United States deployed E-3 early warning aircraft to Incirlik Air Base in eastern Türkiye.

The E-3 carries a large, circular radar on its back, capable of detecting air and sea targets hundreds of kilometers away. The United States has repeatedly claimed that these early warning aircraft are "only for monitoring air and sea traffic along the Iraq-Türkiye border to strengthen NATO's flank defenses."

Incirlik is located in southeastern Turkey. Looking east from there, you see the Soviet border: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, the Baku oil fields... The E3's radar scans Soviet airspace with every rotation.

The Soviet Union was compelled to respond militarily, with several army groups redeploying towards Azerbaijan and Georgia. The Black Sea Fleet was placed on high alert, and its ships sailed out of Sevastopol to patrol the Black Sea. Large numbers of Su-27s and MiG-29s began being deployed to forward airfields in the Caucasus and Ukraine.

The current US operational configuration is clearly not just about attacking Iraq to help Kuwait regain its independence.

The Iraqi army was largely equipped with Soviet-era gear—T-72M tanks, MiG-29 fighter jets, air defense missile systems… its equipment was a generation behind that of the Soviet Union itself. While the quality of Iraqi military personnel was poor, if the United States had easily crushed Iraq in this war, international opinion would have blamed the Soviet Union's weapons, not the Iraqi soldiers.

This was a blow to the reputation of the Soviet military industry without directly firing upon the Soviet Union. The United States wanted to use Iraq as a pretext to slap the Soviet Union in the face.

The US also needs the money the Soviet Union made in the arms markets of Africa and other parts of the world!

This is also a war to test the strength of the US military, to see if the US military's information technology is reliable, and whether its advanced equipment is effective. Can America really be great again?

Everything will be tested in this war.

Slava and Nian Dao both underestimated America's determination. For the United States, this was a new war to establish the nation, and whether the United States could recover from the Great Depression depended on this battle!

At the same time, the United States wants to use this crisis to tie all the countries in the Middle East—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE...—to the American war machine.

The US wants them to see clearly: in times of crisis, only the US can protect you. Your security, your oil, everything you have—all depend on the US!

Although it is generally believed that war is the last resort when conflicts between nations escalate to the point of no return, war becomes the top priority when the other benefits it brings far outweigh those of peace.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

On December 7, the Soviet Union took a new step, calling on Warsaw Pact member states to reinforce Syria. TASS issued a statement:

“NATO’s operations in the Middle East have far exceeded the scale of its published operational objectives, and the alliance needs to respond in kind.”

More than 190,000 Warsaw Pact troops, mainly composed of Soviet forces, plus battalion-level units, a large number of air defense systems and missile units from member states, began to assemble in Syria from Soviet territory.

The Oka tactical missile system has been deployed. Launched from Syria, it has a range of over 400 kilometers, capable of covering all of Israel and Jordan, as well as US forward troops stationed in northern Saudi Arabia.

In response, the United States has repeatedly claimed that the operation was solely aimed at countering the Iraqi dictatorship and helping Kuwait regain its independence, and that it had no intention of infringing upon the Soviet Union or its allies.

China called on both sides to exercise restraint and raised its combat readiness level.

Now, the armies of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact are crammed into the powder keg that is the Middle East.

There is Iraq in between.

------

Nanjing, China, thousands of kilometers away.

The lights are on in a student dormitory at Nanjing University.

December in Nanjing is cold. The windows are closed, the heating isn't very strong, and several students, bundled up in thick sweaters, huddle around a table. On the table are several newspapers—the People's Daily, Reference News, and an outdated English edition of the China Daily.

A radio was broadcasting international news, the static crackling interspersed with the announcer's clear and articulate Mandarin.

"...The United States continues to increase its troop presence in the Gulf, and tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate..."

A boy wearing glasses turned up the radio volume a little.

"The Warsaw Pact coalition forces have entered Syria... Several Soviet army groups are moving towards the Caucasus, and the Soviet Ministry of Defense claims 'all preparations are complete'..."

"Do you think the US and the Soviet Union could go to war?" a math student asked, holding a cup of hot water.

"There's definitely no way a war will break out! The US made the first move, and the Soviet Union had no choice but to follow suit. I think this was purely due to the ambitions of American imperialism. The Soviet Union imposed sanctions and embargoes first, and the US was so eager to start a war."

Moreover, the US Congress approved the use of force first before going through the formalities at the UN General Assembly—utterly hypocritical!

The bespectacled boy said with certainty: "Nuclear powers will not fight each other directly. The US and the Soviet Union did not deploy many troops in Europe. This is not a signal that the two countries are about to go to war."

"But what if a conflict breaks out between 400,000 and 190,000 people crammed into such a small space?" another male physics student said.

"An accidental clash is a completely different matter from a world war. Both commanders are clear-headed and will not escalate the war because of a friendly fire incident."

"But what if it can't be resolved? What if a plane fires a missile that hits another country, like Israel, and then Israel drags Lebanon and Syria into the conflict, leading to conflicts between Arab countries and Israel, the Soviet Union and Israel... then the Middle East will be completely thrown into chaos."

The dormitory fell silent for a moment.

"It shouldn't turn into World War III... right?"

No one responded. Everyone was very worried about the situation in the Middle East, but as university students, their immediate priority was to prepare for the upcoming final exams.

The school now repeatedly emphasizes that students' primary task is to attend classes and study.

Although the protests that broke out across the country last April were resolved peacefully, quite a few students were punished afterward. Those "college students who didn't like attending classes but preferred fierce struggles" either received demerits or warnings, and some were even expelled.

“Have you considered this,” the bespectacled man said slowly, “what would it mean for China if NATO and the Warsaw Pact really clashed head-on in the Middle East?”

No one responded.

"The entire world order will be reshuffled. When the two superpowers go to war, other countries will have to choose sides."

Which side should China take? The Soviet Union just sold us Su-27s, and our relationship with them is currently good. But if we side with the Soviet Union, what about the United States? Should we still do business with the United States?

He looked out the window at the gray, gloomy winter sky of Nanjing.

"What kind of business are you in? When war breaks out, the US and the Soviet Union will fight in the Pacific and we can only watch from the sidelines. A country that doesn't even have an aircraft carrier has no say in such matters."

Another person pushed up his glasses: "By the way, have you heard? It seems the Soviet Union is going to help us train carrier-based pilots."

"What's the use of training pilots? What about ships?" "Hey, there will be bread, there will be milk, there will be aircraft carriers. Maybe we'll even see them in our lifetime!"

The physics department student suddenly asked:

"When do you think China will become powerful? Like, when the US and the Soviet Union were doing this, China could still have a seat at the table, and everyone would have to listen to China's opinions?"

No one answered.

The radio was still ringing. Outside the window, the night in Nanjing had fallen. Thousands of kilometers away on the surface of the Persian Gulf, steel behemoths were moving in the darkness. And in this small dormitory room, a few students in their early twenties were wrapped in sweaters, thinking about questions older than themselves.

Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.

Baghdad, Iraq, November 27

Saddam Hussein began peace negotiations, announcing his willingness to accept the mediation of the UN Secretary-General and sending Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz to Geneva.

Chapter 115 Gulf War

Saddam Hussein knew very well that he had made a huge mistake. He thought the United States would back down, the Soviet Union would protect him, and Iraq had the world's fourth-largest military strength. According to his plan, Iraq should have defeated Iran and then used its overwhelming power to quickly reach Kuwait within 48 hours. The surrounding Gulf countries would tremble and forgive all of Iraq's previous debts. Finally, Iraq, along with a group of Gulf allies, would control Middle Eastern oil and use it to blackmail the United States and the Soviet Union.

But he was wrong.

The United States saw this war as a founding war for America to return to its peak. The Soviet Union was unwilling to step into the quagmire of war again for Iraq. Iraq only had a paper strength that was not strong. Without the intelligence and weapons support of the United States and the Soviet Union, and without the United States Navy destroying the Iranian coast, Iraq would not have been able to defeat Iran. The surrounding Gulf countries were indeed terrified, so they took the initiative (not really) to invite the US military. In the end, Iraq was surrounded by NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

Now he was in a bind, unable to turn back. Saddam knew that even if he immediately went to Moscow to defect and reconcile with Ivanov, Moscow would not let him continue.

What should he do?

Saddam Hussein had one extremely prominent characteristic: all his strategic judgments ultimately served one goal, which was the preservation of his personal power.

The Iran-Iraq War dragged on for so many years not because he thought he could win, but because he felt that admitting defeat would lead to his overthrow by his domestic political enemies. The invasion of Kuwait was similar; the domestic discontent stemming from the economic crisis made him feel threatened, and foreign adventures were a way to divert attention from these problems.

Faced with encirclement by the US and the Soviet Union, Saddam Hussein had two paths to choose from.

The first option is to obediently withdraw the troops.

Returning Kuwait, which had been conquered, didn't solve the debt problem or the oil quota issue. Instead, a fatal new problem arose: he had openly deceived the Soviet Union, launching a surprise attack while feigning compliance, causing Slava to lose face in front of the world. The Soviet Union wouldn't forgive him after the withdrawal; they would only leave him alone for the time being.

And then what? The Soviet Union would slowly tighten the noose—cutting military aid, supporting military opposition factions, cultivating Moscow loyalists within the Iraqi Ba'ath Party...

Eventually, one day, a general will replace him in a "palace coup," and Moscow will issue a statement saying that it "deeply regrets the situation in Iraq but respects the choice of the Iraqi people."

Saddam was all too familiar with this script, because that's how he came to power; he used a party purge when he ousted Bakr in 1979!

The second option is not to withdraw troops.

The United States might actually attack, but the Soviet Union vetoed the decision to use force. The United States was legally isolated, and even if it wanted to invade Iraq, it would have to exercise restraint out of consideration for the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union could not stand by and watch all its allies in the Middle East be reduced to only Syria and Yemen, and would inevitably force the United States to exercise restraint.

The US doesn't dare to fight with all its might. Iraq might be able to hold out for many more months until the US has to withdraw from the Middle East due to excessive losses. Even if Iraq can't hold on, it still has a self-destructive card—to drag Israel into the conflict!

If Israel were drawn into the war, the conflicts between the Arab states joining the coalition and Israel would come to the forefront. Furthermore, Israel's ambitions in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Jordan are well-known and would inevitably infringe upon Soviet interests...

Iraq will then be able to take advantage of the situation.

Moreover, Saddam Hussein still held the Kuwaiti card—as long as he controlled Kuwait, he had leverage in negotiations. Withdrawing his troops left him with nothing, even the right to bargain!

Therefore, from his perspective, while not withdrawing troops is dangerous, at least there are still variables and room for struggle. Withdrawing troops, on the other hand, is a certain, slow death.

A dictator will always choose the "certain death sentence" over the "uncertain risk".

------

Geneva, from the end of October 1990 to January 1991.

In the office of UN Secretary-General Pérez de Cuéllar, various mediators came and went. Envoys from the Arab League, representatives from the Non-Aligned Movement, France, and even the Soviet Union had come. Each one arrived with a proposal and left with a bellyful of disappointment.

The problem lies with the man sitting in the Baghdad palace.

Saddam Hussein conducted the negotiations very well, saying that he had destroyed all weapons of mass destruction as required by the United States, and that all biological and chemical weapons had been completely destroyed. He also welcomed an international inspection team to visit Iraq to inspect the results.

He also told the Soviet envoy, "I agree in principle to the withdrawal of troops."

This statement brought a sigh of relief to Moscow and the world—though only for less than three seconds, because the next statement was:

"But the conditions need to be discussed."

But what are the conditions?

Saddam made a list.

First, Kuwait must forgive all war debts. The hundreds of billions of dollars Kuwait lent to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War must be written off. Saddam Hussein's claim was that Iraq shielded the entire Arab world from Iranian expansion, and that Kuwait's security was bought with Iraq's blood; why should Iraq repay those debts?

Second, OPEC must reallocate quotas. Kuwait and the UAE's overproduction, which has driven down oil prices, has harmed Iraq's oil revenues. Quotas must be renegotiated to protect Iraq's interests.