Eagle, I don't want to form an alliance anymore.

"Speaking of which, Comrade Brezhnev is planning something—a large-scale military exercise may be held next autumn, which will be very large and may involve more than 100,000 troops."

Slava knew what he was talking about; the Western 81 exercise was one of the largest military exercises in human history.

“This exercise is partly to demonstrate our strength to NATO, and partly—” Andropov paused, “it is also a stage for various voices to vie for power within the military.”

He didn't elaborate, but Slava understood his meaning. The military wasn't monolithic; there were those like Ogarkov who advocated military reform and valued high-tech warfare, as well as veterans who clung to tradition and were obsessed with tank warfare. And Ogarkov—a reformist general who could only be used but not truly relied upon—was somewhat of a genius for uttering such pronouncements about the General Staff's command party.

Marshal Ogarkov still holds considerable power. Although his opposition to sending troops was rejected last December, his power has not been significantly diminished. It will not be until two years later that he completely breaks with the central government on the issue of Afghanistan and is eventually demoted to a low-level position.

Perhaps I could try to reach out to him.

“Your mission in Uzbekistan is complete, and I have new plans for you—but before that, I need to talk to you about Afghanistan.”

Andropov spoke much slower than usual when he talked about Afghanistan.

“In March 1979, when Afghan President Taraki first requested that we send troops, I was against it,” he said bluntly. “But from March 17th to 19th, the Politburo held a three-day meeting, and the discussion was very intense. Kirilenko opposed it, Chernenko opposed it, and I opposed it too. Our reasons were very clear: sending troops to Afghanistan would provoke a strong reaction from the international community, would undermine the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty that we had just negotiated with the United States, and would be a losing proposition.”

"Although the conclusion of that meeting was not to send troops, it set a bottom line—Afghanistan cannot be allowed to escape our control. This was something that everyone agreed on at the time, including myself."

"The situation collapsed later?" Slava asked.

"Yes, Taraki requested military assistance again in July but was refused. In October, Amin took action."

Taraki was the coalition's most reliable ally in Afghanistan, and we invested significant resources in him. In early October, Amin staged a coup that killed him, after which he began making contact with the Americans. Our intercepted intelligence indicated that the CIA had established secret contacts with Amin.

The alliance cannot accept Afghanistan becoming American territory!

Even after the alliance dissolved, the Americans didn't turn Afghanistan into their territory. The graveyard of empires is just a joke.

Andropov stood up and walked a few steps in the ward. He walked to the end of the small ward in just a few steps. He turned around and walked back, like an animal locked in a cage.

"You have to understand the context at the time—the Iranian Revolution had just succeeded, Khomeini had come to power, and the entire Middle East was in turmoil! The United States had lost one of its most important allies in Iran, and they desperately needed to find a new foothold in Central Asia. If Amin sided with the West, if the United States established a forward base on our southern border—do you know how long the border from Afghanistan to the Central Asian region is? More than two thousand kilometers, almost impossible to defend!"

The decision made in December 1979 that changed the fate of the Soviet Union cannot be simply summarized by later historians as imperial expansion. The coalition leadership at the time faced a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical situation: a potentially westward-leaning regime had emerged on the southern border, stability in Central Asia was threatened, and the CIA's influence had penetrated the core of power in Afghanistan!

“On December 8, Comrade Brezhnev held a small meeting in his office with only four people—me, Gromyko, Ustinov, and Suslov,” Andropov said, his eyes half-closed as if recalling every detail of that day. “I proposed the plan to send troops, which was to be formally discussed at the enlarged Politburo meeting two days later.”

"At the meeting on December 10, Chief of the General Staff Ogarkov strongly opposed sending troops. Ogarkov was an outstanding military strategist. He analyzed Afghanistan's terrain, the possibility of guerrilla warfare, and the difficulties of logistical supply from a purely military perspective. His conclusion was that sending troops would be easy, but withdrawing would be difficult, and that the country might get bogged down in a long-term quagmire."

“He’s right,” Slava said.

Andropov glanced at him, neither denying nor admitting, and simply continued speaking.

“Militarily he may be right, but politically we have no other choice. If we don’t send troops, Amin will completely side with the West within a few months. At that time, we will not be facing a guerrilla war, but the collapse of the entire Central Asian defense line! The cost of that is much greater than sending troops.”

"The operation began on December 27. Amin was killed and Karmal came to power. The military operation itself was very successful, and the whole process took less than 48 hours. Brezhnev even thought at the time that the troops could be withdrawn in three to four weeks, just as smoothly as our airborne landing in Czechoslovakia."

"But not."

"Yes, the war has been going on for almost a year now, and there's no end in sight. The Afghans are much more tenacious than we imagined. The Americans and the Eastern Roman Empire are continuously supplying the guerrillas with weapons and funds through Pakistan, and this place has become a quagmire."

He remained silent for a long time, so long that the director began to wonder if he had forgotten that he was still speaking.

“I was involved in this decision,” Andropov finally said, “but whatever the outcome, I will not shirk my responsibility for this war.”

...

After Andropov left, Director Nian closed the door, sat down on the edge of the bed, broke the remaining oranges in half, and handed one half to Slava.

“Did you notice?” she said as she ate.

"?"

“When he talked about Afghanistan, he emphasized security threats and geopolitics throughout, as if the military intervention was purely for national security.”

"You don't think so?"

Director Nian chuckled, spat the orange seeds into his palm, and threw them into the trash can: "The security threat is certainly real, but what he didn't tell you is how much political benefit this war will bring to him personally."

"Think about it, who will suffer the most after the war in Afghanistan starts?" Director Nian held up one finger. "Hundreds of thousands of military troops are stuck in Afghanistan and cannot get back to participate in domestic politics in the short term. It is true that Ustinov is the Minister of Defense, but his energy is completely tied up in the war, so he cannot get much involved in the succession issue."

She held up a second finger: "Second, guess?"

Slava thought for a moment and suddenly understood.

"Rashidov?"

“That’s right!” Director Nian nodded. “Uzbekistan was the Soviet Union’s major rear base in the Afghan War. Military supplies and personnel had to pass through Central Asia. Tashkent became a logistics center, and Moscow’s attention to Uzbekistan increased significantly. It became even harder for Rashidov to hide his little tricks on his own turf. The war reduced his political room for maneuver.”

"Damn, so Andropov supported the military intervention not only for security reasons, but also for this other reason?!"

“How would I know if that’s what he was thinking at the time? Maybe he himself couldn’t explain it clearly,” Director Nian chewed the last segment of orange in his mouth. “But that’s the objective effect. This war was beneficial to his political position—the military was tied up, Rashidov was weakened, and as the chairman of the KGB, he actually accumulated more power and influence in wartime intelligence work.”

Slava leaned against the pillow and thought for a long time.

Andropov was no simple man; he had an idealistic side—the old man in an old sweater drinking Georgian tea, the intellectual discussing corruption and beliefs in his villa late at night, the decision-maker who chose to save them at a crucial moment. But he was also a ruthless political animal—how much humanity could a man who had sat in the KGB for fifteen years have left?

These two aspects are not contradictory. Or rather, they must coexist in order for this system to survive and progress.

“It seems he wants to bring us into his inner circle,” Slava said, looking at the ceiling. “And the new mission direction is related to the military.”

“Yes,” Director Nian stood up and walked to the window, looking at the bare birch trees outside through the glass. “He needs the military’s support to take over, but the current military-industrial complex is more inclined towards the establishment’s Ustinov group. Andropov needs to find his allies in the military.”

"Ogarkov?"

“Most likely,” Director Nian turned around, “Ogarkov is the Chief of the General Staff and a leading figure in military reform. He had disagreements with Andropov on the Afghan issue, but they agree on the need for military reform. And—”

"And there will be a major exercise next year."

Director Nian returned and sat down on the edge of the bed: "That exercise was the battlefield. Andropov wanted us to use that exercise to establish contact with the military reformists."

Slava shifted his gaze from the ceiling to Director Nian's face.

"A programmer and a female system user trying to get involved with the Soviet Chief of the General Staff? What a load of nonsense!"

"Sounds absurd, right? But if it's absurd, it's even more absurd than the two of us!" Director Nian chuckled.

“That’s true.” Slava laughed as he spoke, then his wound aggravated, causing him to gasp in pain. “But since the Uzbeks have come, what else is there to be afraid of?”

"Wow, you've got some nerve, bro! What else can you do?"

"can!"

"Do you still dare to do it?"

"dare!"

Chapter 11 Iraq is a blessed land (Part 2)

On the evening of November 4th, Director Nian brought a glass bottle containing an orange-yellow liquid and two enamel cups to Slava's ward.

"Shall we celebrate?" Slava looked at the bottle of wine.

“Celebrate my ass,” Director Nian put the bottle on the bedside table, unscrewed the cap and poured an inch’s worth of wine into each glass. “You’re still sick, and I don’t like vodka either, so let’s have a couple of sips of kvass. By the way, Reagan won, it’s confirmed, we really didn’t travel to any weird timelines.”

Slava turned on the television; the news was reporting the results of the US election. Ronald Wilson Reagan had defeated incumbent President Jimmy Carter by a landslide, and the Republican Party had also gained a majority in the Senate. The announcer read from the prepared analysis, saying that the American people had been misled by imperialist warmongers, but a tense atmosphere couldn't be concealed between the lines.

"That's really impressive, 489 to 49 electoral votes," Director Nian said, taking a sip from his cup. "A decisive victory."

Slava picked up his cup with his left hand and touched it to his throat. The bubbles in the kvass were a bit spicy, and he coughed twice.

"The next four years—"

“Eight years,” Director Nian corrected him, “He will be re-elected.”

“The best days are yet to come,” he said. “Great times are coming!”

"It's certainly a good time for the free world, enough to drag the alliance to its grave." Director Nian put down his cup. "From 1981 to 1989, US military spending increased from $178 billion to $303 billion, nearly doubling. And then there's that Star Wars program, the 600-ship navy, the revival of the B-1 bomber, the MX intercontinental ballistic missile—each one more expensive than the last, each one forcing the alliance to follow suit."

"You know a lot, huh? I'm genuinely curious about your database—"

“I don’t even know the source of the data myself, so don’t worry about the details,” Director Nian waved his hand. “The key is the strategy. Reagan’s team knew very well that the league’s economic foundation couldn’t support an arms race. What they had to do was to keep increasing the stakes, forcing the league to either go bankrupt or admit defeat and withdraw.”

Slava leaned against the pillows, staring at the ceiling. The radio announcer was still righteously criticizing Reagan's warmongering rhetoric, but he couldn't listen anymore.

He recalled what Andropov had told them a few weeks earlier. Before his time travel, the Cold War had ended more than thirty years ago, and all the analyses were hindsight—the alliance had collapsed because the arms race had crippled the economy, the textbook answer. But now, sitting in 1980 Moscow watching the news of Reagan's election, he suddenly realized something: the textbook answers were meaningless to people of this era.

Andropov wasn't stupid; he couldn't possibly be unaware of the ultimate outcome of the arms race. But he also knew that NATO missiles were being deployed to Europe one by one, that US military spending was increasing year after year, and that if the Soviet Union didn't keep up, it might face a real military disadvantage.

To be or not to be, that is the question.

“We have to find a way,” Slava said. “We can’t let history go on the same track.”

"Let me tell you something you don't know," Director Nian poured himself another glass, "The question is how to think about it."

------

Poland finally broke out in late November.

On November 4th, Solidarity's registered membership surpassed nine million. What does this number mean? Poland has a total population of 36 million, of which approximately 25 million are in the working-age population.

Solidarity alone comprises more than a third of them! In human history, almost no non-governmental organization has ever been able to attract such a large number of members in such a short period of time!

This is no ordinary union; we must take strong measures!

The language in Pravda grew increasingly vehement each day, escalating from anti-socialist forces to agents of imperialism, and then from agents to counter-revolutionary subversion. Every day, Slava could feel the temperature rising in Moscow as he read the newspaper; he felt the fire was about to reignite.

On December 2nd, Director Nian brought some news.

“Soviet troops have begun to assemble on the Polish border,” she said, her face more serious than usual as she entered. “The Warsaw Pact’s combined military forces are moving toward Poland, including troops stationed in East Germany and Czechoslovakia.”

Is the information guaranteed to be accurate?

"People in the KGB dorms are saying that there are significantly more military vehicles on the streets of Moscow today."

Slava fell silent. He knew what had happened in 1968—the Prague Spring, in which 200,000 troops from the five Warsaw Pact nations marched through Czechoslovakia in 1 hour and 22 minutes, and now the same script seemed poised to repeat itself in Warsaw.

“The Carter administration has already issued a warning,” Director Nian sat down and handed him an English newspaper—again, the International Herald Tribune, which he had somehow gotten his hands on. “The White House says that if the Soviet Union invades Poland, the United States will take the most severe measures. NATO is also holding an emergency meeting.”

Will they send troops?

“NATO certainly wouldn’t dare to do that. After all, there’s East Germany between them and Poland. But the alliance is heavily reliant on imports for many of its supplies. The sanctions imposed on Afghanistan for consuming a large amount of food from Carter are already enough to put the alliance in a difficult position. I wouldn’t even consider taking action against Poland,” Director Nian said.

"What about the Warsaw Pact?"

"I don't think they'll fight, because Poland isn't Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a small, remote country; if you attack it, the whole world might criticize you, but that's one thing. Poland is a European country with over 30 million people, its own army, and intricate ties with the West. Attacking Poland would be like breaking ties with the entire West, and the Polish people's will to resist—" She paused, "Okay, you know what Polish history is like. Do you understand when I say Poland and Russia are a pair of star-crossed lovers?"

"Go eat shit with your ill-fated lover. Afghanistan is not small. It's only really there because Poland is a European white country. The Western world remembers Auschwitz and Hitler because they all targeted European white people. As for the West's targets in Africa and Asia, nobody cares." Slava sneered.

"No matter how much hostility the Slavs face, they are still considered Europeans, even if they don't acknowledge it."

Slava knew that the final outcome would be that the Soviet Union would not intervene militarily, but would instead leave the Polish United Workers' Party to resolve the issue itself. On December 13, 1981, Polish Prime Minister Jaruzelski declared martial law and deployed troops and militia to suppress the Solidarity trade union. But that was a year later.

"What is President An's attitude?" he asked.

“Although there was a precedent—he personally pushed for the Soviet army to send troops to suppress Budapest when he was the ambassador to Hungary in 1956,” Director Nian said, “that experience also made him realize that using tanks to solve political problems was the stupidest way. The situation in Hungary dragged on for several years before it stabilized, and it made us lose face in front of the whole world.”

"Therefore, he would advocate against sending troops."

“We advocate letting the Poles solve it themselves, so that even if problems arise, they will be Polish problems, not Soviet problems.” Director Nian leaned back in his chair. “But we all know that the premise is that the Poles can solve it. If Solidarity really seizes power, then the Soviet Union will have no way out—the dominoes of the whole Eastern Europe will all collapse.”

Slava looked out the window. Moscow in December had already seen several snowfalls, the birch trees were covered with icicles, and the gray sky seemed to press down on the rooftops.

“An alliance that relies on tanks will eventually have places where tanks can’t reach,” Slava sighed.

“That’s a good point,” Director Nian glanced at him, “You’ll be able to use it when you write your autobiography later.”

------

The time has come to 1981.

One afternoon at the end of January, Andropov sent someone to tell them to come over.

The location was an inconspicuous apartment in downtown Moscow. It had three bedrooms and a living room, with very ordinary furniture and thick curtains hanging in the windows; it looked like a common meeting place for the KGB.

Andropov was sitting on the sofa in the living room waiting for them, with a pot of tea and several documents on the coffee table in front of him. He looked thinner than when they last met at the hospital, and his eyes were more sunken, but he seemed to be in good spirits.

"How's your arm, Comrade Ivanov?" he asked Slava.

"I can move it, but I can't muster any strength." Slava moved his right arm, which was still a little stiff.

“That’s enough,” Andropov pushed a document in front of him. “Take a look at this.”

The document was a military briefing titled "Battle Situation Assessment of the First Phase of the Iran-Iraq War – Analysis of the Combat Effectiveness of Soviet-made Weapons and Equipment." Slava flipped through it; it was full of data and charts, including T-62 tank loss rates, MiG-23 sorties and hit rates, and the performance of BMP infantry fighting vehicles in desert terrain...

"Can you understand it?" Andropov asked.

“I can understand every word,” Slava smiled and closed the document, “but I’m not a military expert, and many technical details need to be explained.”

"So I'm planning to let you go see it in person."

"Huh?" Slava raised his eyebrows, showing no sign of displeasure.

Andropov picked up his teacup, took a sip, and then briefly outlined the next steps.

As Iraq's largest arms supplier, the coalition maintains a permanent military advisory group in Baghdad. Following the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War, Moscow sent several military observer missions to the front lines, ostensibly for technical support, but in reality to assess the performance of Soviet-made weapons in combat. The next observer mission is expected to depart in mid-February, and Slava will accompany the mission as a specially appointed analyst at the Military Technology Institute.

"The Allied forces are one of the most powerful armed forces in the world, at least on paper. But being the most powerful doesn't mean being without problems. We've talked about this before. I need the military's support—I think we can try to get the support of reformist generals. Comrade Brezhnev suddenly fell seriously ill a couple of days ago and went straight to the emergency room, but thankfully he survived."