But Ryzhkov and others who wanted to go further on the road of reform had a different idea in mind—in their view, the Soviet Union was able to stand here precisely because Slava withstood the pressure and implemented computerization and reforms; otherwise, they would have been the ones to collapse!
Both groups extracted a set of reasons to support themselves from the same fact.
Slava understood that how this victory was defined was how the Soviet Union would go from here on out—this was the truly dangerous undercurrent beneath the surface of this celebration.
He slowly strolled to a corner of the hall, carrying his wine. Director Nian was leaning against the wall, holding a small glass of wine, barely paying attention to the people who came to offer toasts.
Everyone knows who she's waiting for, whether it's the Politburo or the Central Committee. What people are more curious about is when the two will get married.
"Hey, what are you doing hiding here, boss?" Slava stopped beside her.
Director Nian took a sip of wine, gazing at the smiling faces in the room. After a long while, he slowly opened his mouth, his usual nonchalant attitude now gone.
“Brother, I have to warn you, don’t let this excitement tonight go to your head,” she said. “Believe it or not, once the champagne buzz wears off, more than half the people in this room will come to the same conclusion.”
We've already won; we don't need to go through that trouble of reform anymore.
Slava didn't say anything, but tightened his grip on the wine glass.
“But we both know in our hearts,” Director Nian lowered his voice even further, “the real illnesses within the Soviet Union—the clique of bureaucrats, the rift between intellectuals and workers, the centrifugal forces within the republics…”
These things didn't emerge because the economy collapsed; they grew out of the very bones of the system itself.
Today's resounding victory will be like a thick quilt, completely covering up these illnesses.
The more tightly it's covered, the more violently it will burst when it's finally uncovered.
She turned her head and looked at Slava in the lamplight: "Your real skill is not in encouraging people when they are discouraged, but in forcing the party to keep changing when everyone thinks there is no need to change anymore."
This road is not easy to travel.
Slava was silent for a moment, then tilted his head back and drank the wine in his glass in one gulp.
“I know,” he said softly, gazing at the lights filling the room.
"History will not end—there is no end in this world. The more glorious this victory is tonight, the more I must remember that the sun will rise again tomorrow, and none of the unresolved problems will be eliminated."
Director Nian looked at him without saying anything more and put down his cup.
“However—at least for now, would you be willing to celebrate properly with your revolutionary comrades? My dear, great and glorious comrade?” She raised her hand.
“It is my honor, my beloved Comrade Hope.” Slava smiled and took her hand.
The two held hands and went into the venue to join the festivities.
Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.
It was the morning of the 24th.
Soviet newspapers were running at full speed, with Pravda and Izvestia announcing the victory to the nation in the largest bold font on their front pages:
"A new stage in the general crisis of capitalism," "The bankruptcy of the market myth," "Marx's prophecy comes true once again"...
Among the crowds queuing on the streets, those citizens who had previously looked worried straightened their backs, pointed at the newspapers, and had a long-lost sense of pride on their faces.
Externally, TASS's statement was quite restrained—it contained no direct mockery, and consisted entirely of diplomatic language such as "the Soviet government is closely monitoring the turmoil in the international financial markets" and "is willing to cooperate with all countries on the basis of equality and mutual benefit."
But the gloating that permeated the words was obvious to anyone with a discerning eye.
What truly caused a sensation in newspapers worldwide was Slava's speech. In a public address that day, the Soviet General Secretary looked meaningfully at the cameras below the stage and said:
"This may be the end of history. The inherent flaws of the capitalist system will inevitably lead it to destroy itself."
This statement was like a pebble thrown into boiling oil. From London to Tokyo, from Paris to New York, Western media outlets that were yesterday fretting over the collapse of their financial empires have all, coincidentally, put this statement on their front pages today.
Their title carried a meaningful question mark—
The End of History?
Sitting in his office in the Kremlin, Slava looked at the stack of foreign newspapers with the same headline that his secretary brought him, but there was no smile on his face.
He knew better than anyone else in the world that the phrase "the end of history" that he uttered was the last thing he believed in his life.
Because he came from that world after the "end".
Chapter 79 Ivanov, you're so young!
After Black Monday, the entire Warsaw Pact bloc received a shot in the arm.
Slava has already begun preparations for the 19th National Congress.
This meeting was of a slightly lower level than the Party Congress, but it was still one of the highest-level public meetings of the Party. It was perfectly normal to invite delegations from fraternal parties from various countries to attend. Since the 1920s, the CPSU had never held such an event behind closed doors, whether it was a Party Congress or a National Congress.
The last National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held in 1941. By then, the shadow of war was looming overhead, and the scale of the congress was forced to be reduced again and again.
But this time, the Great Depression across the ocean, which burned the entire Western world in blood, gave the Soviet Union a confidence it hadn't experienced in decades.
So Slava made the decision: This time, we should invite the foreign guests to the stage to give a speech in a grand and generous manner!
From October 26 to November 6, the Soviet Communist Party's propaganda machine operated at full capacity.
The propaganda department meticulously collected details of the disarray faced by the United States and the entire NATO bloc during the Great Depression, then presented them to the people of the Warsaw Pact bloc—
A stock market crash, factories closing down, long lines of people waiting to deposit their money at banks, and bankrupts who fell from grace overnight.
Back then, nearly a quarter of ordinary American families staked their entire fortunes on the stock market. Now, how are those families faring? Pravda and Izvestia have published numerous articles about it, and it's been broadcast repeatedly on television.
Two systems, two fates, laid bare in such a bloody way.
As the Soviet people watched the Wall Street yuppies weeping on television, and then looked at their own lives—not exactly wealthy, but peaceful and stable—they straightened their backs for the first time and felt a long-lost sense of self-confidence.
Soviets, have confidence!
Slava knew the math better than anyone. He knew that this American depression wouldn't last forever, but it would drag on for a long time—back in 1929, the US took over a decade to fully recover from the collapse!
This time, the financial system is deeper and more complex than it was back then. The chain reaction of derivatives, repurchase agreements, and mutual funds is something that was unimaginable in 1929.
With oil prices in the Middle East remaining high, the United States is facing not just simple deflation, but stagflation, which is ten or even nine times worse than deflation!
The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma: raising interest rates to save the dollar only deepens the recession, while lowering interest rates to save the recession only accelerates the depreciation of the dollar.
Economic experts believe that the period from the end of 1987 to the end of 1988 was the most violent and sharp contraction, followed by a long period of political restructuring and slow recovery. It is estimated that it will not be until the mid-to-late 90s that we will truly return to full strength.
This is the best outcome the US could achieve by cutting off its own arm to save itself. If it had continued to play by Reagan's approach, the US probably wouldn't have survived until the mid-to-late 90s and would have gone bankrupt.
Even if things recover, the United States' unique position in the global economy will be permanently downgraded—it used to account for more than a quarter of the world's share, but it would be lucky to maintain around one-fifth in the future.
The piece it lost will be divided up by Europe, Japan, China, and the Soviet Union.
Politically, thanks to the substantial funding the KGB received, the Soviet Union was able to take some actions against the United States while returning to Latin America and supporting social democratic parties and communist parties in Western Europe.
As is well known, when the economy is in crisis, there are three solutions: Marx, Malthus, or Maxim.
American politics is currently in a state of radicalization. The Great Depression of 1932 brought Roosevelt to the American people, but it also gave rise to Hugh Long (left-wing, leaning towards populism), Father Coughlin (right-wing populist anti-Semitic), and various communist and fascist groups.
The power of the American establishment was under attack, and the KGB began to support anti-establishment forces. A KGB report concluded that there were only two possibilities for the new US president in the next five years:
Either a hardline populist comes to power and they stop pretending altogether, to hell with being the world's beacon! If the US continues to act as the beacon in this state, it'll just end up burning itself out! They should suck themselves dry first, and as for what happens to their allies, only heaven knows.
Either a moderate comes to power and begins to actively ease tensions with the Soviet Union, negotiate, and relax military confrontation to reduce military spending and save the economy, and perhaps even establish a uniquely American form of capitalism, a planned capitalist economy.
At the grassroots level, the United States will simultaneously see a left-wing resurgence and a right-wing populist resurgence. A powerful labor movement and socialist ideas will be seriously discussed, Bernie Sanders-like figures will emerge ahead of schedule, and right-wing populist topics such as anti-globalization, anti-establishment, and anti-financial industry will also begin to be discussed.
This was a period of major restructuring of the international order that would last eight to ten years, and the Soviet Union had to seize this opportunity.
Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.
As the largest country in the socialist camp to reform towards a market economy, Lao Zhong was still affected by this shock.
On the night of the 27th, both Director Nian and Slava were planning to go to sleep, but Director Nian couldn't sleep and suddenly wanted to talk about politics, so he started arguing with Slava about Lao Zhong.
"Whether this collapse in the US is good or bad for China is unclear to outsiders," said Director Nian. "On paper, China has suffered losses—its exports to the US are estimated to be cut in half as the US market shrinks."
Slava chimed in, "You can't do it that way. Old Zhong's exports to the US are just a few pieces of hard-earned money from textiles, light industrial products, and primary processing. Didn't he say before that he would exchange hundreds of millions of shirts for Boeing planes?"
Historically, at this time, China's exports were about $480 billion, with exports to the US being about $33 billion, accounting for only about 7% of total exports. Even with the contraction, the orders from the entire Warsaw Pact group were more than enough to make up for the shortfall, given the friendly relations between China and the Soviet Union.
For Lao Zhong, shifting exports to the Soviet Union would also help him complete industrial upgrading, because previously he exported textiles, light industrial products, and primary processed goods to the United States, earning low-value-added hard currency.
However, exports to the Soviet Union shifted towards mid-range industries, such as light industrial consumer goods like canned goods, textiles, home appliances, bicycles, and sewing machines—all of which were China's advantageous industries in 1987.
Agricultural products such as meat, fruit, and tea were also imported, and the Soviet Far East and Siberia had long relied on imported food.
There were also commercial services. Special economic zones like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai could provide processing, export, and entrepot trade services to the Soviet Union. With Hong Kong not yet returned to China, strengthening trade with the Soviet Union was even more beneficial to the development of these special economic zones.
Moreover, China was facing a severe shortage of foreign exchange at that time because it had been selling low-value-added, low-end products, and its national foreign exchange reserves were only $33 billion. Using rubles or barter to settle exports to the Soviet Union could alleviate this problem; if the Soviet Union could pay in hard currency, it would be a godsend for China.
However, the current problem is that with the increase in exports, the Soviet Union does not have the capacity to transport them in. Historically, after the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, the trans-Siberian railway freight infrastructure was idle for a long time. Now, restarting it requires the reconstruction of the railway facilities. The export processing industries in China's southern coastal areas, such as Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang, were built for the American market, and it will take time to adjust to the Soviet market.
"Economic problems are minor. I'm really worried about whether there will be major problems with Lao Zhong's reforms, and I don't know if we can get through the price liberalization."
Slava is clearer than any other leader that the biggest problem in China right now is not foreign trade at all.
In November 1987, Zhao Ziyang, a well-known liberal cadre, transformed from Premier to General Secretary. As a result, in 1988, China officially ushered in a major price reform—the one-time liberalization of price controls on most commodities.
This explosion will trigger a nationwide buying frenzy and panic, and inflation will soar from 10% at the beginning of the year to nearly 30% by the end of the year!
Faced with inflationary pressures, in May 1988, Deng Xixian proposed a "five-checkpoints-and-six-generals" approach, supporting Zhao Ziyang's efforts to push prices through resistance levels. This policy, implemented in August, triggered nationwide panic, and the inflation rate tripled.
This defeat allowed the conservatives, represented by Chen Yun and Li Peng, to gain the upper hand, while Zhao Ziyang's reformists were marginalized. This internal division evolved into differing stances on the student movement by the spring of 1989, ultimately leading to Zhao Ziyang's downfall and Deng Xixian's decision to restart reforms three years after the crackdown, culminating in his "Southern Tour" speech.
"And the most subtle thing is what kind of response our computerized planned economy will elicit from Lao Zhong."
Slava slowly said, “Our success has given the conservatives a great amplifier—'Look, a planned economy works as long as it’s done well, and our direction of adhering to the Four Cardinal Principles is correct.'”
I think this faction will score a lot of points next year.
“Then Zhao Ziyang and his radical reformers will be in trouble.” Director Nian chimed in, “If our system succeeds, it will be a double whammy for them—it will prove that a planned economy can work, and it will also destroy their model of fully integrating with the West, because the West is currently stuck in the mire of the Great Depression and can’t get up.”
“As for Deng Xixian,” Slava paused, “he is a pragmatist. He won’t turn back to the rigid Soviet model of the 1950s just because we’ve succeeded—he tasted that stuff all too well back then.”
But he will definitely pull back the direction of reform: emphasizing macro-control more, being more wary of wholesale marketization, and being more reluctant to relinquish the core state-owned sector.
Director Nian added, "So when their delegation comes this time, you, as the host, have to make both the conservatives and the reformists feel that you are an ally. That way, next year we will have room to maneuver and not offend either side, and we can do business well. Isn't that great?"
Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.
The Soviet Communist Party's invitation list this time was extremely extensive.
The list includes several communist parties in Western Europe—the French Communist Party, the Italian Communist Party, the Greek Communist Party, the British Communist Party, as well as communist and workers' parties in Asia, Africa, and Latin America that have not yet come to power, and the ruling parties of the Warsaw Pact member countries.
The delegation from the Chinese Communist Party attracted the most attention.
At this time, Zhao Ziyang had just taken over as General Secretary of the Central Committee at the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, a new official taking office. But what truly made the entire socialist camp hold its breath was another piece of news—the 83-year-old Deng Xixian had personally joined the delegation and was coming to Moscow.
On November 5th, the Chinese delegation's special plane landed at Moscow's airport.
The gangway was lowered, and Deng Xixian came out.
Slava was already waiting on the tarmac.
These two men were, one was the chief architect who led a nation of one billion people onto the path of reform and opening up, and the other was a young Stalin who pulled a red empire on the verge of collapse back from the brink of collapse.
Twenty years of Sino-Soviet split, twenty years of estrangement, debate, and tension, all now converge on these two hands that are about to clasp together.
Both of them felt indescribable emotions. Almost simultaneously, they reached out and clasped hands tightly.
Both were quite short, one about 1.56 meters tall and the other about 1.65 meters. Looking at the 45-year-old Slava, the 83-year-old Deng Xixian remarked with a sigh:
"Ivanov, you are so young."
Russia's history seems to be shrouded in an unsolvable mystery—whenever the country is pushed to its most critical moment, its people inexplicably place their hopes on an extremely young leader.
Slava released his grip, grinned, and said, "Being young is great! Young people are energetic and have a lot of vitality, so they should work harder! I think I can work for at least another twenty years!"
They both laughed and patted each other on the back. Facing the flashing cameras of reporters all around, they clasped hands tightly once more.
This handshake was seen by media around the world as a reunion of the socialist camp since the Sino-Soviet split 20 years ago.
The two reformist leaders, the Soviet Communist Party and the Chinese Communist Party, have finally shaken hands and made peace.
Sigrún has taught at the Iceland University of the Arts as a part-time lecturer since and was Dean of the Department of Fine Art from -. In – she held a research position at Reykjavík Art Museum focusing on the role of women in Icelandic art. She studied fine art at the Icelandic College of Arts and Crafts and at Pratt Institute, New York, and holds BA and MA degrees in art history and philosophy from the University of Iceland. Sigrún lives and works in Iceland.
The national conference was scheduled for the day after the 70th anniversary of the October Revolution.
So delegations from various countries rushed to Moscow ahead of time to attend the grand celebration on November 7th. The top leaders of the six Eastern European countries, the general secretaries of their respective communist parties, and leaders of friendly parties from the Third World all gathered in Moscow.
This is a perfect moment—left-wing forces from all over the world are gathering in Moscow at the very moment when capitalism has just collapsed in public!
November 7th was packed with activities from morning till night: the morning included a military parade and mass procession on Red Square, the midday was a grand commemorative meeting in the Kremlin Grand Hall where Slava was to deliver a report entitled "October and Reform: Towards the New Century," and the evening was a state banquet at the Kremlin.
That morning, Red Square was a sea of red flags. On the reviewing stand, delegations from various countries stood side by side, craning their necks to watch this grand spectacle showcasing Soviet power.
The military parade has begun.
The tracks of the Soviet Union's most advanced T-80U main battle tanks rolled over the bricks of Red Square, producing a deep and majestic roar as they passed one after another.
The sky was filled with roaring aircraft, and the ground was filled with huge launchers towing intercontinental ballistic missiles. The sight of this steel torrent made the comrades from the Third World on the reviewing stand feel their blood boil.
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