Reborn Xiangjiang as a Tycoon

Chapter 528 Misjudgment, from rising to falling (two-in-one)

After oil prices fluctuated for a few minutes, they began to turn downward. It was obvious that short sellers had temporarily gained the upper hand.

"Chairman, it seems that the short positions are stronger now. We can close some of the long orders first and then take them back later."

Upon seeing this, Vivien Kelly immediately said that although her judgment was still bullish and oil prices were rising, since it was falling and short positions were stronger, she should take advantage of the trend and use part of her position for short-term trading.

"Leave 70% of the position unchanged, and you can do whatever you want with the remaining 30%."

Lin Baicheng said out loud that although he knew that oil prices would rise in the future, taking out 30% of the position and letting Vivien Kelly lead the operation would allow him to better understand Vivien Kelly's operating level.

Vivien Kelly heard this and immediately issued an order: "Group A and Group B each closed their long positions of US$100 million, and stopped selling when the oil price fell below US$13.85 per barrel."

"Yes, manager!"

The traders in Group A and Group B, who were sitting at the computer desk, immediately placed orders on the computer.

At this time, Vivien Kelly said to Lin Baicheng: "Chairman, I still insist on being long. The short position is only temporarily strong. We can use 10% of the position to make a short-term difference. If too many positions are liquidated, I am worried.

It will be too late to pick him up later."

"Do what you want."

Lin Baicheng nodded, Vivien Kelly's arrangement was not wrong.

Oil futures are different from the stock market. One lot is equal to 1,000 barrels. If calculated at a price of US$14 per barrel, one lot is US$14,000.

Each group closed a long order of 100 million U.S. dollars. It did not mean that one account sold more than 7,000 lots at once, but that the sales were divided into multiple accounts. Originally, when doing long, it was divided into multiple accounts to buy.

, this is naturally the case with selling now.

Therefore, from the market's perspective, there are suddenly one, twenty, hundreds or even thousands of large orders on the market, causing the already downward oil price to fall even faster.

The current daily trading volume of the oil futures market, without long and short competition for positions, averages about 50,000 lots per day, which is a daily trading volume of about US$700 million.

However, when there is short or long strength, or even when there is a divergence between long and short, the daily trading volume will definitely increase significantly.

Taking yesterday as an example, oil prices rose sharply by 3.485%, and the trading volume that day was 76,500 lots, with a trading volume of US$1 billion.

Today's trading volume is even greater than yesterday. In the morning alone, there was more than 600 million U.S. dollars in trading volume. But even so, a 200 million U.S. dollar sell order is still very large on the market, accelerating the decline in oil prices.

"Attention, Group A and Group B, after the oil price falls below 13.7 US dollars per barrel, they will start to slowly build positions, and buy back as many lots as they sold before."

With oil prices falling to $13.75 a barrel, Vivien Kelly once again spoke out and issued orders.

Regardless of how long it took to sell and buy, the price difference was only a little over 0.2 US dollars per barrel, but this short difference was more than a percent, and a capital of 200 million US dollars was a profit of about 3 million US dollars.

In the futures market, it is very important to be able to make short-term spreads. If you can make the right short-term spread once a week, there are 52 weeks in a year, including 50 trading weeks after deducting special holidays and holidays. That is a 50% profit, which is quite enough.

High.

It's just that this kind of good thing is basically impossible. There are times when you make short-term mistakes. If you want to make short-term mistakes right every time, how can there be such a powerful investor? If there are such powerful people, they would have gone it alone.

How could you still work for someone else?

The price of oil did not fall below the price of 13.7 US dollars per barrel all of a sudden. The closing price of oil price yesterday was 13.66 US dollars per barrel. The closer it is to this price, the stronger the resistance of bulls will be. There is strong support near this price.

Oil prices experienced a small rebound, but Vivien Kelly looked at the market with a calm expression and did not let anyone take back the selling orders immediately.

Over the next fifteen minutes, oil prices first rebounded to a short-term high of $13.8 a barrel, and then fell again, this time below $13.7 a barrel.

When the oil price was about to fall below, Group A and Group B had already placed a small amount of long orders.

As oil prices fell, long orders opened continued to be filled.

When the $200 million sold by Golden Fleece Company was bought back, the oil price did not rebound as a result. It was still fluctuating and falling. It had already fallen below yesterday's closing price before the position was completed. Today's trend has become

From rising to falling.

Vivien Kelly's face has become ugly, because the current trend is different from what she judged. It looks like it is rising and falling. There is insufficient momentum from many parties, so there is still a lot of room for decline.

"Chairman, judging from the current trend, the short side may be stronger, and there will be a lot of room for decline in the future. Should we close the long orders?"

If Golden Fleece Company closes its long orders now, it will still make a profit. Therefore, even though it did not meet the expectations of the judgment, Vivien Kelly still had the idea of ​​taking advantage of the situation.

“What is our average cost price?”

Lin Baicheng did not answer, but asked.

Vivien Kelly heard this and looked at her assistant beside her.

The assistant said: "Including the short difference just made, it is now 13.21 US dollars per barrel!"

Lin Baicheng said aloud: "So there is an increase of more than two points, so let's continue to watch, don't operate now, and see how it will go in the future."

The trend of oil prices that day was ugly. It rose first and then fell, closing at US$13.38 per barrel, a decrease of 2.05%. If someone had bought the oil price in the morning when it was US$14 per barrel, the loss today would be about 4.5%.

It just so happens that US$13.38 per barrel is not today's lowest price, but US$13.3 per barrel is. If there are funds chasing the price using twenty times leverage, then the position will be liquidated and the position will be forced to be liquidated by the financing institution.

This is a fund that uses twenty times leverage. Funds that use more leverage will be liquidated long ago. Oil futures can use up to 100 times leverage, which means that if you lose 1%, you will lose all your principal. Basically no one

Dare you play like this.

After the market closed, Lin Baicheng called Vivien Kelly to Maori Haruko's office, and Maori Haruko was also there.

"What do you think about the future of oil prices? Or should you insist on being bullish?"

"Today, oil prices fell back after rising high, and short sellers have the upper hand. It is more likely that they will continue to adjust downward in the future. It is not impossible to return to the price of 13 US dollars per barrel in the short term, or even fall below this price."

"Chairman, although I am still bullish on oil prices in the long term, since it will adjust downward in the short term, we should close our long orders first."

Vivien Kelly spoke out and expressed her opinion. In the futures market, you must know how to admit defeat. If you refuse to admit defeat and insist that your judgment is correct, the market will teach you how to behave. You should admit defeat when you should, not to mention this operation.

There was no loss, just not much profit.

"There is no need to close long orders. I am also optimistic about the long-term trend of oil prices."

Hearing this, Lin Baicheng couldn't help but waved his hand, letting Vivien Kelly lead the operation to observe her ability, but she had to make money, and let a lot of money-making opportunities fly away from her eyes.

Vivien Kelly couldn't help but said: "But if we don't close the long orders and the oil price drops, we may suffer losses later, and the specific loss ratio cannot be determined yet."

"It's okay to suffer short-term losses. If you lose money, just keep holding on."

Lin Baicheng smiled and said: "With a cost of US$13.21 per barrel and a leverage of about five times, as long as the oil price falls below US$11 per barrel, then our funds will be safe. Vivian, do you think the oil price may fall below US$11 per barrel?"

Is it $11 a barrel?”

Vivien Kelly immediately said: "Although anything can happen in the futures market, a 20% drop in our capital loss is basically unlikely."

"That's it."

Lin Baicheng nodded: "Besides, even if the oil price falls below 11 US dollars per barrel, we don't have funds to cover our positions. No matter how the oil price falls, as long as the oil price rises in the long term, sooner or later we can make profits from losses."

Vivien Kelly couldn't help but remind: "Chairman, although I think my judgment is correct, if the oil price trend shows a downward trend, then we must stop the loss when it is time to stop the loss, and we must know how to admit defeat, otherwise

Not only will we lose all our principal, but even more funds. As long as we have funds, we can still look for opportunities in the future and keep our hope."

"I understand what you mean, and I have my own judgment on this."

Lin Baicheng knew Vivien Kelly's good intentions, but he believed more in the memory before rebirth. If the butterfly effect really happened, it would be unlucky for him.

Lin Baicheng has already said this, so naturally Vivien Kelly will not say anything more.

Lin Baicheng: "If you insist on going long and hold long orders, before closing the position, if you see a suitable opportunity to make a short difference, then you can use part of the position to make a short difference. By the way, don't go short.

To make short-term trades, don’t do hedging-style short-term trades.”

The reason why Vivien Kelly was not allowed to make short-term gains through short selling was because he was not sure when the oil price would rise sharply. If Vivien Kelly just shorted the oil price and then rebounded and rose sharply, it would not only be the short-seller's

Some funds did not earn profits from the increase, but instead suffered losses from the short-term decline, which is equivalent to twice the loss, and the risk is a bit high.

When you know that oil prices will show an upward trend, there is no need to engage in more risky short selling.

"I took note of it, Chairman."

Vivien Kelly responded and nodded to express her understanding.

Lin Baicheng said with relief: "Don't be too stressed. At least our funds are still profitable at the moment, and I'm here to guide you, so what you have to do is read the market analysis with a calm mind."

"Thank you, Chairman!"

Vivien Kelly sincerely thanked her. If she had made a mistake in her judgment at Merrill Lynch or another investment bank, all the responsibility would have been on her, and the outcome waiting for her would have been to get out.

However, if she were still working at Merrill Lynch, Vivien Kelly would not be able to operate such a large amount of funds, and she would be more cautious. When the oil price falls below 14 US dollars per barrel, she will start to close her positions and sell, locking in profits.

.

Vivien Kelly would not risk her career. She would rather earn less, which would be more stable.

Lin Baicheng waved his hand: "You go out first and have a good rest at night."

"Chairman, I'm going out first."

Vivien Kelly stood up to say hello and left the office.

After Vivien Kelly left, Haruko Maori spoke up and said to Lin Baicheng: "Chairman, we have invested US$380 million in principal in oil futures. If we lose all of this, the loss will be too much."

.”

"Don't worry, even if you don't trust Vivien's judgment, you should trust mine."

Lin Baicheng knew what Haruko Maori was worried about, and reminded him specifically: "Don't forget the current gold price. I have invested more in gold futures. Doesn't the rise in the current gold price prove that my vision is correct."

"That's what I say, but no one can be sure what kind of fluctuations the futures market will have. Once there is a downward adjustment, existing profits will be significantly retracted."

In view of her relationship with Lin Baicheng, Maori Haruko is more courageous, and she is indeed worried about Lin Baicheng's investment. There is really too much investment here, which is scary.

"It's okay. Even if there are adjustments, it will just make less money. Anyway, our cost-price ratio is low."

Lin Baicheng did not explain too much to Haruko Maori. He said that the gold price could rise to US$800 per ounce, which was unnecessary. If he said too much, it would be difficult to explain.

All Maori Haruko could do was remind her that after all, the money belonged to Lin Baicheng. With Lin Baicheng's resolute attitude, it was hard for her to say more. After all, too many unpleasant words could easily annoy people, and she didn't want to be disliked by Lin Baicheng.

"Let's go back together."

Lin Baicheng and Maori Haruko left the company together after get off work.

However, Lin Baicheng did not stay in Maori Haruko's apartment that night. He went to the high-end apartment on Fifth Avenue, where Guan Zhilin stayed. He could not keep Guan Zhilin alone here, how could he do it every two days?

Come once.

In the following trading days, oil prices continued to fall, but the decline was not too much, just half a point one point at a time.

However, although the daily decline was not large, after falling for several consecutive trading days, with only occasional minor rebounds, the oil price gradually fell below the price of US$13 per barrel, and the Golden Fleece Company naturally suffered losses.

During this period, although Vivien Kelly made two short-term trades as Lin Baicheng said, the profit each time was only about two million U.S. dollars. The total of the two times was only four million U.S. dollars. Compared with the 2 billion U.S. dollars of funds operated, the profit was slightly

The profit from short-term trading is nothing at all.

Vivien Kelly was a little worried and kept in touch with Lin Baicheng, who had left New York and returned to Los Angeles. Lin Baicheng reassured her, and at the same time asked her to insist on holding long orders, and at most occasionally use part of the position for short-term trading.

Since the oil futures position will not be liquidated in the short term, Lin Baicheng naturally does not need to stay in New York every day. He has more companies in Los Angeles than in New York.

However, Lin Baicheng, who took Guan Zhilin away from New York, did not immediately get busy with work. Instead, he took Guan Zhilin to play in Los Angeles, and even took Guan Zhilin to play at a large farm in Fresno, which made Guan Zhilin very happy.

for a few days.

(End of chapter)