Reborn Capital Madman

ps: I wish all my book friends good luck and fortune in the Year of the Ox!

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Although Gao Xian, who sized up the situation, methodically walked to the center of the stage to reshape Hong Kong's financial order and created a situation that was widely supported, local battlefield games still continued one after another.

This phenomenon is not surprising. After all, reshaping Hong Kong’s financial order involves many things.

Or let’s talk about the linked basket currency exchange rate strategy in the improved currency board system. Because Hong Kong has always been an international free port, stakeholders in international trade are particularly concerned. They are worried that this strategy is a bit complicated. Even if the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate is still

It will be expressed in the form of reference to the US dollar, but the transparency is not as simple and crude as the previous Hong Kong dollar following the US dollar, which may lead to an increase in its own transaction costs.

For a confrontation of this level, there is no need for Sir Lao Gao to personally participate in the battle. The Hong Kong local academy he has quietly cultivated will debate it. But for the specific issue of what exchange rate level to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, Gao Xian must speak out.

Opinion.

On September 24, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar hit a new low of 9.6. After the Hong Kong government announced that it would stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar rebounded to around 8.4. We are waiting to see how the Hong Kong government will stabilize the Hong Kong dollar.

Going back to 1973, when the Hong Kong dollar began to implement a floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar was 5.085; there was also a situation in 1974 when the Hong Kong dollar appreciated to 4.965;

Fast forward to 1982, when British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher visited China, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar had gradually depreciated to 6.6.

In the past year or so, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar has fallen from 6.6 to 8.4, which is the range for reference when the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate finally stabilizes. And the water here is not generally deep.

First of all, don’t forget what kind of circle Xiangjiang operates in. We can’t let the Midea, who likes long-arm governance, seize the opportunity to gain a sense of presence. The big hat of a currency manipulator is really going to be taken off. It will be very difficult to bear.

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Finally, and most importantly, the stabilized Hong Kong dollar exchange rate must be suitable for the actual situation in Hong Kong.

For example, it is unrealistic for the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar to return to the "six" era more than a year ago. Even if it can be brought back, the price required will be so high that the move is meaningless; and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar fell below 7

Point 9, which occurred in mid-September, almost marked the entry of the Hong Kong dollar into a period of life and death. People in Hong Kong society were panicked. Therefore, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate that was finally stabilized must not fall below this line, otherwise there would be no point in stabilizing the Hong Kong dollar with great fanfare.

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As for how much the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar can be pulled back from the line of 7.9, this is the main difficulty that tests the elites who are currently qualified to participate in the recasting of Hong Kong's financial order. People of insight can each show their talents and express their own opinions.

Judging from the analysis of Hong Kong's macroeconomic data, think tanks including Gaoyi, Hui Feng, and financial research institutions under the Hong Kong government have similar conclusions, that is, theoretically, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar will range from 7.25 to 7.

Point 50 is a relatively reasonable range.

But the problem is that this is theoretical. Just bringing the Hong Kong dollar-US dollar exchange rate from the current wait-and-see attitude of 8.4 to 7.5 is like a natural chasm.

Gao Xian knew best that his confidence relied on grasping the general trend, rather than acting on his strength ignorantly. Moreover, he suspected that the British had the intention of trapping him, just like the Hong Kong government was accused of having the assets of the Exchange Fund exceed US$30 billion in five years.

He was forced into a corner with his bold words.

Therefore, we should be extremely cautious and advocate pragmatism with "no creativity" to bring the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar to US dollar back to 7.8. This is the most maneuverable and the goal can be achieved by the end of this year at the latest.

, which resulted in several rounds of debates, many of which were ridiculed. Sir Gao wanted to manage the Exchange Fund and also opportunistically. Is this his only ability?

Gao Xian's feeling that the British guy has bad intentions is well-founded. If it were the British guy who was in charge, he would definitely stick to the side like this, but if it were replaced by Sir Gao, the requirements have been raised!

What makes Gao Xian somewhat gratified is that the pressure has been on the British side who had played tricks before and failed. This also gave him the idea to divert some energy from the debate to strengthen communication with the banking industry.

You must know that once the improved currency board system stabilizes the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, the pressure will shift to interest rates. Only by taking precautions can we remain invincible.

At this time, Huifeng's senior classmate Shen Bi and Sir Gao had a deep conversation, which seemed particularly important and meaningful.

Under the lobbying of Sir Gao, the Hong Kong government's Colonial Secretary Xia Ding facilitated the three Hong Kong dollar note-issuing banks Huifeng, Standard Chartered and Hong Kong to conduct small-scale experiments on the improved version of the currency board system at the end of the term of the Financial Secretary, and then for today's,

Huifeng and Standard Chartered may be surprised by the uproar caused by the improved currency board system and the independent operation of the Exchange Fund in Hong Kong, but they are by no means surprised.

In terms of specific reactions, Huifeng has a rather high-minded attitude. He makes suggestions when he needs to, and debates vigorously when he needs to. However, he has never made it clear who he supports in the end.

This conversation between Shen Bi and Gao Xian started out quite interestingly, "Huifeng does not object to Sir Gao's management of the Exchange Fund, and even supports Sir Gao in principle."

Gao Xian understood at once that Huifeng was about to make the final condition, "Thank you Sir Shen Bi and Huifeng for their trust. The comprehensive implementation of the improved currency board system and the independent operation of the Exchange Fund are always inseparable."

Kai Huifeng’s support.”

"Sir Gao has always been able to do what others can't do. If the Exchange Fund only protects the issuance of Hong Kong dollars, it will be overqualified." Shen Bi looked at Gao Xian, who had been tricked by him several times, but in the end, and made the conditions.

"I believe that the Exchange Fund can still shoulder the important task of being the 'lender of last resort' for Hong Kong's banking industry."

Upon hearing this, Gao Xian was surprised, but also had some enlightenment in his heart.

The so-called lender of last resort is one of the important functions of the central bank. To put it bluntly, if a bank encounters a run or is in crisis, it must provide assistance; or, when the entire banking system is in tight position, it is also responsible for providing overnight credit, etc.

During the banking crisis in Hong Kong in the 1960s, Hui Fung, as the quasi-central bank of Hong Kong, played this role; Standard Chartered, headquartered in London, England, also helped.

Of course, Huifeng will not be busy in vain. The monopoly profits gained from being a quasi-central bank are very generous, and it even took control of Hengsheng Bank.

At present, we still dare not conclude that the banking crisis in Hong Kong in the early 1980s has been completely resolved and will not recur. Huifeng is also playing the role of lender of last resort, but it seems a bit "lazy". Accordingly, it is beneficial , Gaoyi, Bank of China, and even the Hong Kong government got involved to make up for Huifeng's "laziness".

Now, Shen Bi wants the independently operated Exchange Fund to play the role of the 'lender of last resort' in Hong Kong's banking industry. On the surface, Huifeng is hopelessly "lazy", but if you think about it on a deeper level, it may not be true. Huifeng is making further preparations to evacuate from Xiangjiang. This quiet layout is much smarter than Yihe's immersed in running away. Although the headquarters has moved away from Xiangjiang, it does not affect the situation that Xiangjiang is still its cornucopia.

Seeing Gao Xian frowning and thinking, Shen Bi said eloquently: "After the Exchange Fund takes over the responsibility of the lender of last resort, it will undoubtedly have a decisive influence on the entire Hong Kong banking industry. As the founder of all this, Sir Gao's Its status will definitely be further improved and become a glorious part of Xiangjiang’s history..."

Shen Bi's big deceit is exactly the same as when he reorganized the bank and then used the right to issue Hong Kong dollar notes as a selling point to Gao Xian to contain the development of Gao's financial kingdom, but the chips he moved were even bigger.

As long as there is a buffer, Gao Xian is really not afraid of Gui Lao's trap. Isn't it true that Benefit Bank, a burden carefully arranged by Shen Bi, has not hindered him now?

What's more, according to Gao Xian's plan, after the independently operated Exchange Fund stabilizes, it will inevitably have to fight for some power to supervise the entire Hong Kong banking industry sooner or later.

However, compared to his previous tacit understanding of the bank-friendly plan, Gao Xian believed that at this time, he could not pretend to be confused and had to clarify what he was saying. Otherwise, he would really become a stupid boy, so he waited. After Shen Bi's sweet talk came to an end, he smiled slightly and said: "Sir Shen Bi, with our deep friendship, why not open the sky and make it clear that Huifeng wants to transfer the function of lender of last resort to the Exchange Fund. Should we start formal preparations?" Withdrew the headquarters from Xiangjiang?"

Shen Bi was picking up the cup, trying to moisten his dry throat, but was so accurately tested by Gao Xian that his hand shook in shock, and he almost made a fool of himself on the spot.

Such an important secret, which even Huifeng and the two Hong Kong government insiders combined could not give more than a slap in the face. How could Gao Xian guess it? Or did the government still leak the news?