Reborn Capital Madman

In addition to discussing how to make Hutchison "obedient", Gao Xian and Li Bancheng naturally exchanged some information.

"Recently, Sir Chen Bi privately revealed that there is a possibility of interest rate hikes in the banking industry." Li Bancheng said casually.

At this stage, if a bank wants to obtain a normal operating qualification in Xiangjiang, it needs to obtain a license and join the Xiangjiang Banking Association and accept restrictions including the agreed interest rate.

The so-called constraints are not just verbal. After several banking crises, the authority of the Xiangjiang Banking Association has grown to be no joke. If anyone thinks that business is free, it is a matter of making a living, such as ultra-low interest rates. Troubles such as attracting deposits will first be kicked out of the Xiangjiang bill settlement system. The inability to conduct bills, checks, promissory notes, etc., is like breaking a leg.

The chairman of the Xiangjiang Bank Association is served by Huifeng Bank and Standard Chartered Bank in turn. In fact, Huifeng Bank, the quasi-central bank in Xiangjiang, is the final say.

In this case, Chen Bi, the senior member of Huifeng Bank, largely represented a trend.

Gao Xian is not surprised by this, because in the face of difficult problems, the solutions available are often those.

The hot market of Xiangjiang's real estate industry and the stock market does not mean that the Xiangjiang economy is healthy and good, but rather reflects hidden worries right in front of you.

According to Gao Yi's market research, last year, at the end of 1980, although there was no abnormality in commercial land in Xiangjiang's real estate industry, industrial land had already declined.

If this is related to the industrial shrinkage in the adjustment of Xiangjiang's economic structure, then the residential buildings that give the public the most direct feeling are already very close to the extreme of endurance.

According to data, the average monthly income of households in Xiangjiang is about HK$3,000, while the most popular small residential units with an area of ​​400 square feet have sold for more than HK$1,000 per square foot. The money required for such a small residential unit is equivalent to the money saved by ordinary people for more than a hundred months without eating or drinking.

Further data involves the vacancy rate of newly built residential units in 1980. This issue is a matter of opinion. Gao Yi's report to Gao Xian was 41.3%. .

From the perspective of the examination, from the Xiangjiang real estate industry to the entire Xiangjiang economic system, inflation has reached double digits, and it is not in concession with the United States. However, no matter how prosperous the Xiangjiang economy is, it is known as the "Four Asian Little Dragons". "One. But after all, it is a small place and its size is limited after all. It is relatively difficult to cover up the seriousness of the problem with a handsome man and a ugliness. However, once the real estate and the stock market officially enter a downward cycle, there will be no fig leaf.

One of the main reasons for the high inflation in Xiangjiang is the real estate industry. The reason is that building buildings everywhere and most of the building materials needed rely on imports, thus "contributing" to the trade deficit.

This involves another important issue. The Hong Kong dollar, which has a exchange rate fluctuation with the US dollar, is softer due to the increase in the trade deficit of Hong Kong.

Let’s raise the perspective from Hong Kong to the world. In order to control inflation, the Federal Reserve has taken measures like shock therapy. Continuously increasing bank interest rates are almost twenty percent.

In this way, a new speculative business, Gao Xian prefers to call it risk arbitrage, emerges, that is, the arbitrage between the Hong Kong dollar and the Euro dollar.

The US dollar has actually become the world currency, and beyond the United States, there are a large number of dollars, called the Euro dollar. This name does not mean the European dollar, but traces the roots until the end of World War II, and the global order was recast.

The United States has implemented the "Marshall Plan" for the reconstruction of Western Europe, and a large number of dollars have just flowed there.

To put it bluntly, the European dollar is the dollar that is outside the United States, which is not controlled by the US Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, and tacitly left it alone.

It is the interest rate of this Euro dollar, which is a bit exaggeratedly higher than the interest rate of HKD 3.5%. The world has never lacked smart people, so the phenomenon of fleece appears.

Huifeng Bank is certainly the quasi-central bank of Xiangjiang, but first of all, it is a commercial bank, and it is so large that just building an ATM network can create its own one, and other banks that have been "abandoned" become one, so,

Such increasing losses of interest are still quite sensitive, and the direct response is to raise interest rates by banks.

As for the impact of the entire Xiangjiang economic system, including the stock market and real estate industry, is the issue that the Hong Kong government should worry about. Anyway, the Xiangjiang economy is now "overheating" and should cool down.

"The rate hike in the banking industry in Xiangjiang is the general trend. After all, the United States is a weather vane." Gao Xian analyzed slowly: "However, the rate hike measures in the United States seem a bit fierce. The economic data obtained from Gao Yi in the past two months are from the United States.

Judging from the fact that the side effects are very obvious, especially agriculture and manufacturing, which can be described as being hit hard."

Li Bancheng tentatively said: "Is Sir Gao worried that the emerging manufacturing industry in Xiangjiang, represented by Gaoxian Industrial Estate, will be affected by such a negative impact?"

Gao Xian nodded, "Now, people are restless and only know that when they trade stocks and real estate, they need to develop with a down-to-earth attitude. It is really valuable, like the complete industry that Huanyu Electronics took nearly ten years to build.

The chain is already affected by market competition, trade protection and other factors. If it is constrained by capital, it will be burned quickly."

Li Bancheng knew that this was Sir Gao's attitude. Gao Yi owned two banks, Yili Bank and Gao Yi Bank, and he was also a good person in the Xiangjiang Banking Association. The banking industry raised interest rates and the general trend was the trend.

I don’t agree with using shock therapy like the Fed.

In the "old script", Li Bancheng can basically avoid various economic crises with confidence, which is inseparable from his ability to capture the current situation. At this time, discussing with Sir Gao is the right thing to do in the question.

Gao Xian certainly knew Li Bancheng's good habits, and he was also stingy to exchange his own views, "With the banking industry hikes interest rates, the turning point of the stock market is probably about to appear, and the real estate industry should also react later. And, I heard that

, Zhengfu intends to cancel the installment payment method used during the auction of land."

"Fortunately, for a sound company, these factors only represent an increase in the cost of capital use, not without methods of making up for and hedging."

Li Bancheng joked: "It seems that Dajiang Industrial needs to seek more consulting services from Gao Yi."

Gao Xian laughed loudly, opened the skylight and said in a bright voice: "I took the initiative to retreat from the position of Chairman of the Gaoxing Group in order to give the outside world an attitude and the services received from Gaoyi will not be different from Gaoxing Group."

...

The dignified Sir Gao did not attack Li Bancheng. At a meeting to discuss the interest rate hike shortly after, he clearly stated that interest rate hikes are not suitable as "severe medicine" that they would not be unexpected, and to rise to a small scale, first

It is better to send signals to the market.

In addition, Gao Xian also speculated that as the US economy begins to decline, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike policy will definitely be repeated. There is no need to rush Hong Kong to destroy the current "good situation".

...

ps: There will be another chapter tonight.

ps: Bow to thank the book friend: I was ambushed and rewarded!!