Reborn Capital Madman

Because there have been relatively sufficient trials and preparations before, it seems natural for the Hong Kong Futures Exchange to launch foreign exchange futures, with varieties including Hong Kong dollar, US dollar, pound sterling, West German mark, Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

The Hong Kong foreign exchange market is an intangible market of considerable size. If you want to quantify it visually with numbers, you can only ask for data from the Hong Kong government. However, the Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong government, Xia Dingji, did not respond to such questions.

Gao Xian estimated that the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong's foreign exchange market should be more than one billion U.S. dollars, and the forward foreign exchange purchased by various banks in Hong Kong reached tens of billions of U.S. dollars.

Under this circumstance, after the Hong Kong Futures Exchange launched foreign exchange futures, various licensed banks, licensed deposit-taking companies, registered deposit-taking companies, and overseas financial institutions came one after another, so it was no surprise that foreign exchange futures immediately became comparable to gold futures.

Varieties with comparable trading activity.

In addition to asking Gao Yichan to help local companies in Hong Kong with international trade business, Gao Xian made good use of the foreign exchange futures tools of the Xiangjiang Futures Exchange to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations in the international foreign exchange market, and he also did not forget to make it convenient for himself.

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For example, Gaoyi started a new West German Mark buying operation. In terms of foreign exchange futures, the farthest contract trading date is set at the beginning of the second quarter of next year, that is, six months later.

The basis for this comes from Gao Xian's increasingly in-depth understanding of the Carter administration. Various signs indicate that the U.S. Treasury Department will protect the value of the U.S. dollar, and the strongest currency currently is the West German Mark.

To put it bluntly, the United States will most likely buy a large amount of West German Marks next year to defend the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar.

The Xiangjiang media only paid a passing attention to the launch of foreign exchange trading products by the Xiangjiang Futures Exchange, but they continued to pursue a paper written by Gao Xian.

Gao Xian will regularly submit papers to the Graduate School of Xiangjiang University to complete his academic courses. His latest paper is an observation and discussion of the current monetary and financial system in Xiangjiang.

The media caught it and used it as a gimmick to hype it up.

In this paper, Gao Xian's examination of Xiangjiang's monetary and financial system begins with his entry into this era, that is, the late 1960s and early 1970s.

At that time, the pound devalued significantly several times, thus shaking the foundation of the pound exchange standard.

On June 23, 1972, the British government announced that the pound exchange rate would float freely.

The frantic Hong Kong government announced about half a month later that the Hong Kong dollar would be decoupled from the British pound and instead pegged to the U.S. dollar. The official exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar was 5.65 Hong Kong dollars to one U.S. dollar.

However, the U.S. dollar itself also faced severe depreciation pressure. For example, in February 1973, it devalued by 10%. However, the Hong Kong dollar, which was pegged to the U.S. dollar, did not depreciate accordingly, resulting in the official exchange rate being adjusted to 5.085.

The Hong Kong dollar has appreciated against one U.S. dollar, which means the Hong Kong dollar has appreciated.

By 1974, international U.S. dollar hot money was impacting everywhere, and the pressure for Hong Kong dollar appreciation further increased. However, the small shoulders of the Hong Kong government could not withstand this energy and were unable to take large-scale intervention actions. They watched hot money pouring into Hong Kong.

, the abnormal increase in Hong Kong dollar money supply threatens the stable development of the economy.

Therefore, when the US dollar was decoupled from gold on November 25, 1974, the Hong Kong government immediately announced that the Hong Kong dollar would be decoupled from the US dollar and a free floating exchange rate system would be implemented.

The Hong Kong dollar performed well in the early days of the era of free floating exchange rates.

In Gao Xian's view, one of the reasons is that although the global economy was in recession at that time, the Hong Kong ship was turning around and the economic performance was acceptable, which even caused the current account of the balance of payments to continue to be in surplus, and the Hong Kong dollar still faced the pressure of appreciation.

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One data support is that the Hong Kong dollar foreign exchange index rose from 103.7 in 1973 to 114.4 in 1976.

However, as various economies around the world gradually climbed out of the quagmire of economic recession, Hong Kong's international trade faced serious challenges, leading to a continued increase in foreign trade deficits and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate beginning to face depreciation pressure.

Within Xiangjiang, as the real estate industry began to prosper, the credit scale showed signs of expansion, and the money supply increased.

Ultimately, at this stage, the Hong Kong government has the motivation to guard against the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, but it has no awareness of the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar.

In his paper, Gao Xian issued a warning to Hong Kong's monetary and financial system. If this continues, the Hong Kong dollar will depreciate, the exchange rate will soon exceed 7, and the inflation rate will reach worrying double digits.

Regarding this paper, most of the media in Hong Kong believe that Gao Xian's warning about the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar may be to cooperate with the launch of foreign exchange futures by the Hong Kong Futures Exchange, while Gao Xian's warning about inflation is easy for people to empathize with.

When he learned that his recently published paper had been hyped by the media, Gao Xian couldn't help but frown slightly.

Most of the papers he published were circulated in academic circles. Why did he suddenly attract the attention of the Hong Kong media?

In a place like Xiangjiang, the temple is small and the wind is strong, so people have to be careful!

Ma Qiwen, who had been helping Gao Xian handle this matter, became angry immediately, "Brother Gao Xian, according to media reports, you are using your paper to slander Hong Kong's economy, which is inconsistent with your identity. It is really sinister. I'm going to check it out right away.

Look who is making trouble."

"Don't go into this muddy water." Gao Xian waved his hand, "I'm just doing an academic discussion, am I really afraid of being punished for my words?"

While we were talking, the Hong Kong government called and informed us that Governor MacLehose had invited Gao Xian to attend the advisory meeting.

Before Gao Xian went out, he touched Ma Qiwen's face and joked: "Yongda has made a lot of money recently, why don't you go and enjoy the autumn breeze?"

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This meeting was either a meeting of the Hong Kong Executive Council, or some insightful people selected by the Governor of Hong Kong, MacLehose, as consultants to provide him with consulting services on his policies.

When Gao Xian arrived at the Hong Kong Government, he saw that Financial Secretary Xia Dingji had already taken his seat.

"I have read Sir Gao's paper. It is really thought-provoking." Xia Dingji mentioned this matter during casual chat.

Hong Kong Governor MacLehose listened to the discussion between the two with a smile, and then asked about the operation of the Hong Kong Futures Exchange.

Again, with Gao Xian's status today, it is impossible for him to be convicted for his words. The media may just want to use him to hype him up to gain attention and sell sales, but in the end, when Gao Xian's worries come true, they still have to endure being slapped in the face.

I kneeled down and licked at the painful sound.

When HSBC senior manager Shen Bi and others arrived at the scene and everyone was gathered, Hong Kong Governor MacLehose asked a question he wanted to ask, "There have been strong calls for deregulation of banking licenses recently. What do you think about this?"

Seeing that everyone present fell silent for a moment, Financial Secretary Xia Dingji said with a smile: "Sir Gao, please tell me first. It would be better if there is a paper on this topic. I can give it to the Governor directly for reference."