Reborn Capital Madman

Obviously, the financial elites who can squeeze into the circle of the Xiangjiang Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit, no matter their professional level, at least they are not foolish, but they are in the situation and it is impossible for them to know now that the stock market bubble last year

It began to burst, and this year a real estate bubble began to burst. What we are waiting for is the lost decade of the economy, the lost twenty years, the lost thirty years... and then, we cannot grasp it quickly like Gao Xian.

The essence of a crisis is a credit bubble.

I may have a question, can't I just take it randomly and can't save myself?

The answer is really the general trend.

The key is that this luxury car that was caught up with by the United States has too great inertia. The United States is still commanding it. Even if it encounters an intersection leading to the correct solution, it will brush the ground and miss it.

As for the next historical trajectory in the "old script", including the banking crisis, quantitative easing and zero interest rates, super quantitative easing and negative interest rates, the ratio of one debt to one chicken fart is the highest in the world.

Two hundred and five, the collapse of the yen exchange rate during the mask period and the flash crash of a government bond... etc., are all "destiny".

It’s like the United States has “locked” the upper limit of the economic development!

In Gao Xian's view, since the signing of the Plaza Agreement, which had greatly appreciated against the US dollar in 1985, the monetary policy level of YiBankan's central bank is obviously worse than before the signing of the Plaza Agreement.

For example, in 1986 and 1987, after the central bank cut the basic interest rate from 5% to 2.5%, the bad signs of the economic bubble had already appeared.

It came out, but after two years of delay, the economic bubble can only be described as crazy, and the central bank's adjustment was late, and it was still a step to the brakes.

As far as Gao Xian knows, there are three main factors that cause this monetary policy lag:

First of all, the United States does not allow any book to be adjusted for its own interests;

Secondly, the global stock market crash broke out in 1987. It was not clear whether the central bank was really scared. Anyway, there were legitimate reasons to continue to maintain low interest rates and stimulate market recovery.

In addition, there is internal struggle in the Central Bank and the Tibetan Province, which is equivalent to the more commonly known as the Ministry of Finance.

Just like the Bank of England was accepted as state-owned by the British government after World War II, the Bank of England had the British government on it, one book on the Central Bank of England was a book on the Grand Tibetan province, the Central Bank wanted to go out and "work alone", one book on the one book on the one book on the one book on the one book on the one book on the one book on the one book on the other.

The Ministry of Tripitaka instinctively resisted the resulting loss of power, so the intrigue between the two was inevitable, and it was not surprising that it eventually affected the extremely sophisticated financial regulation work.

In this mistake, the "credit bubble" pointed out by Gao Xian is becoming increasingly important.

In 1988, YiBan introduced a new accounting standard, that is, the appreciation of the shares held by the bank can be included in the profits of the year, which is much more serious than the reimbursement of golf that can be reimbursed for public funds.

You should know that at this time, YiBank is basically the core of various consortiums. The stocks held by the company in its own consortium system are gone. The appreciation of the stock can be included in the profits of the year, so the bank is still not

Use all your efforts to promote the public's stock trading.

On the other hand, interest rates are lower and the yen is too high. If companies need to borrow money, there is a more cost-effective financing method than lending to banks. Just find an investment bank to issue corporate bonds.

So, in order to release the loans in the company, the bank, who was already very eager, targeted companies and individuals with low credit rating and poor repayment ability.

It’s not scary to make a bubble when trading stocks; it’s not scary to make a bubble when borrowing money to make a bubble when trading stocks, it’s nothing more than leverage operations; but if you can’t afford to pay back the money, you’re scary to make a bubble when borrowing money to make a bubble when trading stocks!

Of course, Gao Xian pointed out the terrible thing about Japan's current "credit bubble", which is just a macro situation, and there is no need to further compassion for the world. He wishfully thought that the people of Yipai lived in dire straits and their lives

The level is high.

As President Gao explains and analyzes the views on the "credit bubble", the financial elites also taste, understand, and nodded, and Gao Xian also took the opportunity to discuss his hard work without any trace.

The first benefit is needed.

The "credit bubble" burst, Yipeng will definitely "pay debts" for this, and the subsequent deflation can be predicted.

In fact, generally speaking, moderate and moderate inflation has a positive promoting effect on developing the economy and improving chicken farts.

The logic here is not difficult to understand. The money in hand depreciates slowly, so it will naturally have to be spent and consumed, which will promote economic development.

To put it bluntly, under certain conditions, inflation is like a whip, rushing people in the consumption era to keep moving forward.

Therefore, relevant state departments also openly publish cpi data for measuring inflation every month. As long as it does not grow by more than three percent, it can claim that the economic situation is very good.

On the other hand, deflation is deflated and the money in hand is not dared to spend. Gradually, the circulation of goods in the economic system slows down, and the vitality is lost, and the economy becomes worse.

In the "old script", the first "lost decade" of an economy can be used to understand emotionally what the "lost decade" is through a specific data.

That is, even in the first two years of the 21st century, the farts of a book of chickens were almost the same as those of a chicken before the economic bubble burst ten years ago.

The first benefit of Gaoxian is based on this foundation.

Next, the central bank will definitely provide a lot of liquidity to solve the bank crisis, while the domestic economic growth is weak, so it is better to get a copy outside and find opportunities to make a fortune together.

This suggestion reflects that Gao Xian's purpose of increasing the diversity of funds and thriving in his hands, and also indicates that he will build new financial skills around the Japanese yen and Japanese government bonds.

The converging trading financial skills that were about to "expirate" were shared, and naturally, Gao Xian needed to supplement new secret financial skills.

What is President Gao’s personal charm?

After the forum, some financial institutions including Nomura Securities began to talk to Gao Yi and then they came to a conclusion.

Pu Weishi, who noticed this phenomenon, was about to drool and his position was tight, but look at President Gao, and his fingers were covered with oil!

(End of this chapter)