Rebirth of the Wild Age

Perhaps many friends do not know that there was a worldwide food crisis in the 1990s.

In 1991, the world's grain production decreased by 3120% compared with the previous year, and China's grain production decreased by 1147%. In 1993, the world's grain production decreased by 3157% compared with the previous year, and China's grain production decreased by 2181%. In 1995, the world's grain production decreased again by 3100%. , and a world food crisis affecting the whole world broke out.

"Will China Starve the World?" " and "Who Can Feed China? "Two American papers caused an uproar in China.

The most critical impact of this incident on the Song family is that China began to limit the production of baijiu and greatly increased the consumption tax on baijiu.

At the same time, the amount of grain purchased by Chinese farmers is getting higher and higher, and farmers need to hand over more and more public grain. In addition, after 1995, China's grain harvest continued for three consecutive years, and finally passed this food crisis smoothly.

China's grain output in 1998 reached its peak in the 1990s. It is also because of this that there are many experts who study the three rural issues, but few pay attention to the issue of food security, because China's grain production is increasing every year, and grain prices continue to fall.

Song Weiyang's paper was first published in the "Journal of Fudan University (Social Science Edition)", which attracted a small amount of attention in the school. Then it was submitted to "China Social Sciences", which was too high-style and was not approved.

However, Shenghai's local "Academic Monthly" gave it, which aroused discussions among many sociologists and experts on Sannong issues.

A small number of scholars agree with Song Weiyang's point of view, but most criticize it, thinking that Song Weiyang is scaremongering. Their thinking is still a few years ago, and they believe that although the number of migrant workers is increasing, it will not cause a large area of ​​arable land to be abandoned, because the land of these migrant workers will be cultivated by other people in the village, and farmers can't wait to use every inch of land. Plant food.

But the reality can be shocking!

As Song Weiyang said in his thesis, the area of ​​rural farmland abandoned has not increased a little, but has increased exponentially.

This problem will be detonated next year, especially in rural areas in the south, where the number of migrant farmers has skyrocketed, and the area of ​​abandoned land has also skyrocketed. The national grain production has been declining year by year since 1999, and fell to the bottom in 2003. With the abolition of the agricultural tax by the central government and the reform of the grain purchase and sales system, the burden on farmers was reduced, and grain production began to pick up slowly. It was also from this time that the country gradually relaxed restrictions on liquor production, and the Chinese liquor industry prospered rapidly.

In the paper, Song Weiyang selected several typical villages, listed the changes in the number of migrant workers and the abandoned area over the past three years, and calculated a correlation coefficient.

Calculated by this coefficient, the rate of cultivated land abandonment in some provinces in the Yangtze River Basin will reach 8% by 2003. This is horrifying and appalling, so it has been criticized by many scholars as nonsense.

Facts will prove that Song Weiyang is correct. Even if the central government cancels the agricultural tax, the abandoned area in some provinces once reached 4%. If the agricultural tax is not cancelled, it is absolutely possible that the abandoned area will increase to 8%, or even more!

Inspired by Song Weiyang's thesis, several experts on agriculture, rural areas and farmers began to go to the countryside to do field surveys, and at the end of the year published several papers, one of which was even published in "Chinese Social Sciences". The conclusion they drew was almost the same as that of Song Weiyang, which quickly aroused a large-scale discussion in the academic circle.

As for the calculation coefficient between the number of migrant workers in rural areas and the area of ​​abandoned land that Song Weiyang created, it will also be used in various ways in the next seven or eight years, especially for studying the problem of abandoned cultivated land. It was once called "Song Weiyang's coefficient" by academic circles. Of course, this coefficient has only existed for seven or eight years, because after 2005, the phenomenon of rural demolition became more and more common, and it is not accurate to use this coefficient to calculate the abandoned area.

Many years later, someone dug up Song Weiyang's thesis from HowNet, and popularized the "Song Weiyang Coefficient". Netizens said, "Papa Song is a sociologist who was delayed by business."

But now it is a pity that the top domestic academic journals do not accept Song Weiyang's papers at all, and relevant departments and most scholars do not pay attention. Only a few experts on Sannong issues were shocked by Song Weiyang's data and went to the countryside to do field investigations at their own expense.

It's normal to think about it. The agricultural harvest has been bumper for three consecutive years. Who cares about the food crisis?

Worry!

Even this thing is not politically correct. The mainstream public opinion at this time is shouting: Chinese people can support themselves! ——From the government to the private sector, everyone is cheering for the increase in grain production year after year, and they are thinking hard about countermeasures for too much grain and low grain prices that hurt farmers.

Well, the mainstream research direction in the academic circle is: if the grain production continues to increase next year, how to stabilize grain prices and how to protect the interests of farmers.

...

The graduation ceremony is just around the corner, and it is raining heavily all over the world.

Shenghai has been drinking intermittently for several days, Song Weiyang is almost moldy in the coffee shop, and Xifeng's sales branches in various places are even more troubled - it is the peak season, but the sales of beverages have plummeted!

The store was empty and there were no customers. Lin Zhuoyun reached out to catch the rain under the eaves: "When will the rain stop? It's been going on for a whole day."

Song Weiyang leaned on the table and said, "There may be a big flood this year."

Lin Zhuoyun said: "There are floods every year."

"This year may be different." Song Weiyang said.

Lin Zhuoyun smiled and said, "Do you want to switch to fortune-telling?"

No matter how bad Song Weiyang's memory is, he still remembers the 98 flood, a catastrophic flood that affected an area of ​​318 million mu across the country!

In terms of timing, the flood occurred at a critical time for rice heading and harvesting, which led to a large area of ​​farmland production in the flood-affected area. But even so, the national grain harvest in 1998 was also a bumper harvest, reaching the peak value of agriculture in the 1990s. This proves Song Weiyang's thesis that the reduction in agricultural production since 1999 has nothing to do with other things, that is, more and more migrant workers and fewer and fewer farmers, which is purely caused by abandonment.

Lin Zhuoyun glanced at the clock on the wall: "Doudou is about to leave school, it's raining so hard, you can drive to pick her up."

"Then I'm leaving." Song Weiyang stood up and said.

From Time Cafe to Fudan Primary School, the straight-line distance is less than one kilometer, and Doudou usually walks to and from school.

Song Weiyang drove that shit-yellow dilapidated van to the school gate in minutes, and then squatted in the car to play a mobile game leisurely - Snake!

Yes, Song Weiyang, the owner of PHS, got a new mobile phone, Nokia 6110, the world's first mobile phone that can play games.

"Jingle Bell!"

When the greedy snake was about to fill the screen, the school bell finally rang.

Not long after, Doudou ran over holding an umbrella, got into the car with a smile and said, "Uncle, our car is the most conspicuous, and you can recognize it from afar."

"Of course, it's much easier to use than Mercedes-Benz BMW. Fasten your seat belt," Song Weiyang said.

Doudou is about to enter junior high school next semester, and she is already a big girl, chatting with Song Weiyang about interesting things about school.

Back at the coffee shop, Doudou went straight to the arcade machine, turned on the coin, and finished it in one go.

"Go do your homework!" Lin Zhuoyun appeared like a demon.

Doudou bargained: "Pick up a coin, and I will do my homework after I hit it."

"Immediately, immediately!" Lin Zhuoyun said.

"Just write." Doudou pouted and left.

Lin Zhuoyun began to complain about Song Weiyang: "You shouldn't have bought the arcade machine back."

Song Weiyang smiled and said, "Kids, combine work and rest."

Lin Zhuoyun said: "My sister runs a shop in the urban area, and she doesn't come back a few times a month. Of course, I want to urge Doudou to study hard. You're good, just add to the chaos!"

"Hehehe." Song Weiyang smiled foolishly.

Suddenly, the phone rang for help, but it was a call from the detective agency: "Boss, the man has been found. Song Xinghua has retired, and Song Weihong and Li Chenggong are both laid-off workers."