A $50 million margin call? I'll short Wall Street.

Lin Tao stared at the report, feeling the paper in his hand suddenly become much heavier, yet also much lighter.

"but……"

He wanted to argue, "But the logic is sound. A weak dollar, supply constraints, and emerging market demand—these are all real fundamental factors—"

"right."

Isabella nodded. "The logic is sound. The data is sound. The weak dollar is sound, OPEC's production cuts are sound, and Chinese demand is sound."

She paused for a moment.

"But Lin Tao, have you ever thought about this question—"

"If these logics are true, and if the $200 figure is truly a certainty, why would Goldman Sachs write a research report about this opportunity and distribute it to everyone for free?"

Lin Tao opened his mouth, but no words came out.

"The truly good opportunities are not written into research reports and publicly announced."

For the first time, a hint of coldness appeared in Isabella's tone, not directed at Lin Tao, but at the game itself.

"When Goldman Sachs' research department starts loudly proclaiming $200, when CNBC hosts start repeatedly airing this research report during prime time, when your office printers start spitting out these pages one by one—"

"You should be able to figure out what this means."

Lin Tao remained silent for a long time.

Outside the window, the Manhattan sky was that dazzling early summer blue, and the sunlight shone on the glass curtain wall of the building across the street, reflecting a dazzling white light.

"mean,"

Lin Tao's voice became somewhat hoarse.

"The last batch of buyers haven't entered the market yet."

"right."

Isabella stood up and placed the report back on the table with a casual gesture, as if she were putting down a piece of worthless waste paper.

"Goldman Sachs needs this research report like a hunter needs a pile of grains scattered in front of his trap. The grains are real, the bird is really hungry, but the trap is also real."

Lin Tao stared at the report for a long time.

He recalled the genuine and enthusiastic smile on his face when he pushed a similar research report to a client at Bear Stearns' trading desk three years ago.

At that time, he truly believed it.

He's unsure now whether he truly believed it at the time, or if he simply didn't know he didn't believe it.

Lu Ze's voice came from behind the table.

That was the second thing he said during the entire conversation.

"There's a nominal firewall between Goldman Sachs' research and sales departments."

Lu Ze looked up, flipped over the CDS diagram, picked up the water glass on the table, took a sip, and spoke in an extremely calm tone, as if he were adding a trivial technical detail:

"Aju Murti wrote this report because he most likely genuinely believes oil prices will reach $200. But whether he believes it or not, and who will use this report for what purpose, are two completely different things."

He lowered his head again, his gaze returning to the CDS chart.

"Go and monitor the betting odds."

He told Lin Tao, "Pay attention to the implied volatility of the July contract. If a bearish divergence appears, tell me immediately."

"clear."

Lin Tao picked up the research report and walked out of the office.

In the corridor, he folded the stack of papers and casually tucked them under his arm.

$120.87.

Looking at the string of numbers, Lin Tao didn't feel that simple, heartfelt excitement for the first time.

He just stood there, thinking about what Isabella had said.

The grains are real. The traps are real too.

He walked back to his workstation, sat down, and opened the implied volatility monitoring interface.

.....

The soft sound of Lin Tao closing the door seemed to completely shut out the noise of the trading room into another world.

The office fell silent.

The low hum of the central air conditioning, the scratching of Lu Ze's pen on paper, and the long, slanted shadows cast by the Manhattan sunlight streaming through the glass and onto the dark wooden floor outside the window.

Isabella did not leave.

She stood there for a few seconds, then naturally walked around the desk to Lu Ze's side.

The toes of his high heels were almost touching the wheels of his chair.

Lu Ze didn't even need to look up to detect a very faint scent of perfume mixed with the aroma of paper and ink.

He didn't look up; the pen continued to move across the paper.

That piece of paper wasn't a printed report, nor was it any formal chart.

It was an A4 sheet of paper that he had casually torn off from next to the printer, with last week's position summary table printed on the back.

The front was covered with dense black pen marks.

Isabella's gaze fell upon it.

In the upper left corner of the paper, he wrote three letters: LEH (Lehman Brothers).

There's a heavy horizontal line under it. Then there's AIG (American International Group).

It also has a horizontal line drawn, slightly thinner than the one drawn by LEH (Lehman Brothers), but it is still considered heavier.

A question mark was added next to it.

Below that is WaMu (Washington Mutual Bank). No underline.

Wachovia (American Bank). There was no underline.

Two companies: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Further down, there were some names that had been written and crossed out, leaving messy marks on the paper, as if some thought process had been carelessly discarded there.

Isabella's gaze swept back and forth between the names twice. Then she understood.

This isn't about looking at the risk exposure of a single company. This is about drawing a map.

A map that marks all the weak points in the US financial system.

Lehman Brothers, AIG (American International Group), Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—these are not just random names; they are the four most vulnerable pillars in the entire credit chain.

"You're prepared to short the entire system."

She said. It wasn't a question, it was a statement.

Lu Ze didn't look up. His pen stopped below LEH (Lehman Brothers), and he added a short horizontal line under that letter combination.

"Lehman Brothers has the largest weight."

Isabella's voice was flat, but each word was spoken with great steadiness.

"Of the lines you drew, Lehman's is the heaviest."

Lu Ze finally raised his head, leaned back in his chair, twirled the pen in his hand, and looked at her.

Why make this judgment?

Isabella knew this wasn't a test.

This is a tacit understanding that has developed between them over the past two months—when Lu Ze asks her "why" in this tone, he is not questioning her, but inviting her to express what has already taken shape in her mind, like two puzzle pieces fitting together to confirm whether the edges match.

She pointed to LEH (Lehman Brothers) with her fingertip in the empty space next to the A4 paper.

"WaMu (Washington Mutual Bank) and Wachovia (Walmart), savings and loan banks."

She spoke slowly.

"Their assets are mainly mortgage loans, they have physical branches, and they're insured by deposits. If they collapse, the FDIC will take over, then break them up, sell them off, and they'll die a natural death. Shorting them?"

She shook her head.

"Profit margins are limited, and option contracts will be frozen during takeover, resulting in poor liquidity. It's not worth it."

Her fingertips moved to AIG (American International Group).

"AIG (American International Group). An insurance giant. Its problem isn't in its insurance business itself, but in its London financial products division—specifically, its unhedged credit default swaps. It's too big to fail, connected to the lifeline of the real economy."

She paused for a moment, looking at the name.

"The government will definitely come to the rescue."

She said this with great certainty.

At that point in May 2008, it was an indisputable judgment—all Wall Street models, all Washington contingency plans, and all media analyses pointed to the same conclusion: if AIG (American International Group) was on the verge of collapse, it could be saved, and it had to be saved.

Her fingertips finally landed on LEH (Lehman Brothers).

"Lehman Brothers. A pure investment bank. No deposit insurance, no retail branches, and no direct access to funding from the Federal Reserve's discount window."

Its leverage ratio is the highest on Wall Street, and it has the largest proportion of toxic assets on its balance sheet. Moreover—"

She paused, as if recalling a scene from a public speech.

"Fuld is too arrogant."

Lu Ze's eyebrows twitched.

"His attitude during the first-quarter earnings call,"

Isabella said,

When a reporter asked him about liquidity, his exact words were: "Those who question Lehman's liquidity should go back and relearn financial statement analysis."

She withdrew her hand and stood up straight again.

"Of all investment bank CEOs, he is the least likely to ask for help."

Lu Ze watched her quietly, waiting for her to finish her last sentence.

"Therefore, Lehman Brothers was the most vulnerable."

"Isabella said. Then she paused for a long time. The office was so quiet you could hear the ticking of the second hand on the clock on the wall."

An airplane flew by outside the window, leaving a fleeting shadow on the glass.

"but,"

Isabella finally revealed the turning point, her voice lower than before.

"I don't think it will go bankrupt."