A $50 million margin call? I'll short Wall Street.
Chapter 415 Weekly
1271 Sixth Avenue, New York, Times Square.
In TIME magazine's cover meeting room, a whiteboard at one end of a long table was pinned with cover samples from the past four weeks. Since mid-September, these covers had all revolved around the same theme—the financial crisis.
The issue featuring the Lehman Brothers collapse was a gray-black Wall Street bull, the issue featuring the government bailout featured a half-body portrait of Paulson, and the previous issue, the October 6th issue, had the headline in large white letters on a black background: How Wall Street Sold Out America.
Lana Fruhar sat in the middle of the long table, with a stack of printed materials spread out in front of her.
The statement from Farstar Capital on September 28, the front page of The Wall Street Journal, several Bloomberg news flashes, and a blurry photo found online.
The photo shows a young Asian face. It was taken at a Metropolitan Opera dinner around June, by a busybody who secretly photographed Lance Walker.
Editor-in-Chief Richard Stangel walked in and sat down at the other end of the long table. Without exchanging pleasantries, he placed a document directly on the table.
"The issue on October 13th."
He said, "We'll be on the shelves and at the stalls on October 3rd. We need to finalize our direction today."
Everyone in the meeting room knew who was on this issue's cover. Over the past week, from New York to Paris, from Wall Street to the Élysée Palace, everyone had been talking about the same name.
"Let me state my conclusion first."
Stangel looked around. "The cover is Lance Walker. Anyone have any objections?"
No one raised their hand.
This is almost a no-brainer. TIME's cover story always follows only one logic—who is the most important this week? And this week's answer is practically obvious.
"Then let's skip the 'whether or not' question and go straight to 'how to do it,'" Stangel said.
Sitting next to Lana, senior editor Arthur Hochstedt flipped through the materials in his hand and suddenly spoke up: "Speaking of which, we seriously considered him for the last issue."
Lana nodded.
"That day, beneath the distant stars."
She said, "September 23rd, the day he pulled the market back from freefall with a letter and an additional $10 billion. His name was already big enough then. I suggested putting him on the cover."
"But in the end we chose 'How Wall Street Sold Out America'," Arthur continued.
"That was the right choice."
Stangel glanced at the cover of the previous issue.
"Last week, the public didn't want a trader's legend. They wanted an answer: who is responsible for all of this? They wanted anger, they wanted a grand, collective accountability. 'Wall Street betrayed America,' and that's what they wanted."
He turned his gaze back and shrugged.
"But this week, things changed."
Lana took the call, because that was exactly what she had been thinking about these past few days.
Last week he was just "that trader who saved the market"—a legend within Wall Street, a figure in financial news. But this week, the French president himself accused him on television of "systematically attacking European financial sovereignty."
The U.S. Treasury issued a statement endorsing the spirit of the contract, and everyone knew it was speaking on his behalf. Then UBS, Barclays, and other European banks, one after another, acknowledged the contract's validity—ha, they were bowing to him with their actions.
She pushed the stack of documents towards the center of the table.
"He is no longer a financial news story. He has become a symbol. An individual who, through the power of the market, has shaken sovereign states, dismantled political alliances, and forced the world to rethink 'who truly holds power'."
The story wasn't complete last week. Now it's complete. So putting it in this issue is much better than putting it in the last.
Stangel leaned back in his chair. "Then tell me, how do you write about him?"
The real "discussion" of the meeting only began here.
Lana was the lead writer for this cover story, and she had been thinking about it for three days.
"I prefer one word—prophet."
She opened her notebook. "In his open letter in July, he wrote in black and white that oil was decoupling from fundamentals and that the financial system faced three major risks. Four days later, IndyMed collapsed. Then came Lehman Brothers, AIG, money market funds trading below book value... Every single thing he warned about came true. This can't be explained by luck."
"The 'prophet' angle is the most powerful and also the safest."
She added, "Because it's a fait accompli. Whether he wins or loses in the future, the fact that 'he was right in July' is etched into history. We don't need to bet on his future; we just need to state his past."
A young editor sitting in the corner offered another suggestion: "'The Invisible Hand'? Adam Smith's. One person, using the power of the market, shook the banking system of an entire continent—that image is much grander."
"More grand, but also more ambiguous."
Arthur shook his head. "'The Invisible Hand' can be a positive term: the wisdom of the market. It can also be a negative term: covert manipulation. If we use this title, readers won't be able to tell whether we're praising him or accusing him."
"Speaking of the accusations."
Arthur turned to Stangel, "Should we add some critical content? After all, he's someone who made billions from the crash. Some people might think that putting someone who profits from other people's suffering on the cover is an endorsement of Wall Street's greed."
The meeting room fell silent for a few seconds. This was an unavoidable issue.
But Lana shook her head, and Stanger's expression showed that he thought so too.
"I don't think we should judge him as a bad guy," Lana said.
"Why?" Arthur asked. "The readers' anger is real."
"The readers' anger is directed at Lehman Brothers, AIG, and those banks that issued junk loans and then packaged and sold the risks to the rest of the world."
Lana said, "But Walker isn't one of those people. He's the one who saw through their lies. Do you remember how we wrote about John Paulson last year? He made $15 billion shorting subprime mortgages, and what was our tone? It was astonishment. It was 'How did he do that?'"
We didn't portray him as a vampire. Because in America, "getting the right bet and making the right move" is something to be respected, not condemned.
"And who are Walker's opponents?"
She continued, "It was those European or American banks that were greedy and sold deep out-of-the-money options as if they were free money. When your opponents don't deserve sympathy, the winners don't need to be condemned. Besides, he also used 10 billion to prop up the market—in the eyes of ordinary investors, he's, to some extent, on their side, both of them having been burned by Wall Street's greed."
Stangel nodded. "So the tone is set: not questioning, but astonishment, an attempt to understand, plus a touch of... unease."
"Uneasy?" the young editor asked.
"A slight philosophical unease."
Stangel explained, "But this unease isn't directed at him personally. It's directed at the system. If someone smart enough can see through the market, predict the market, and even dominate the market, then what does that say about the market itself?"
Is it as effective as economists say? Or is it just waiting for the next smart enough person to exploit it? We can ask that question, but we won't give the answer. We simply leave the reader with that question in mind.
Lana wrote these words in her notebook.
Then she closed her notebook and confessed to a real problem. "But there's one problem I still can't solve."
"What?"
"I interviewed people on Wall Street, interviewed two economists, and I wanted to dissect his analytical framework: what exactly was he thinking, what models did he use, and why did he dare to heavily short when everyone else was bullish?"
She shook her head. "But all the answers I got were superficial. In the end, all they could give me was one sentence: 'He saw something others couldn't.'"
She gave a wry smile. "I need to write eight thousand words to explain someone that even the smartest people on Wall Street can't explain."
No one responded. Because there truly was no solution.
Photographer James Kelly remained silent until his turn, when he brought bad news.
Regarding filming.
He said, "We contacted Farstar through official channels last week to request a cover shoot and interview. We received a reply this morning."
He pushed a piece of paper onto the table.
"They refused to be filmed, refused to be interviewed, and refused to provide any material. Their only response was a single sentence: 'Yuanxing Capital does not comment on media reports.'"
Someone in the conference room sighed.
Arthur looked at the blurry photo from a few months ago.
"So what should we use for the cover? This one?"
"This one won't do."
James rejected it without hesitation, "It's too blurry; the pixels don't justify the cover size. Besides, it's from several months ago; it's outdated now."
"Send someone to stake out downstairs at 270 Park Avenue and take a candid photo?"
The young editor suggested, "He still has to go to and from get off work."
"I've thought about it," James said, "but I've decided against it."
Why?
"Imagine that scene."
James shrugged. "A blurry snapshot. A young man in a suit, walking out of an office building, head down, or half-hidden by a door. What would be the reader's first reaction upon seeing this cover?"
He paused.
That's it?
Someone in the meeting room laughed.
"Exactly," James said. "That's it. How can an ordinary-looking young man carry the weight of a story about 'shaking global markets' and 'forcing the French president onto television'? That candid photo won't add to his significance; it will only diminish it. It will make readers think we're making a mountain out of a molehill."
He flipped the blurry photo over and placed it face down on the table.
"but--"
His tone changed, and his eyes lit up. "His refusal to cooperate is actually a good thing."
Everyone looked at him.
"If he cooperates, we'll have to take a picture of him sitting in his office or standing in front of the trading screen. CEOs all over the world have taken those kinds of pictures a thousand times. He'll become 'just another Wall Street success story.'"
James shook his head and laughed. "But since he's not cooperating, we don't have to be controlled by his image. We can make a purely symbolic cover."
"A person who refused to be seen," he said slowly, "yet influenced the whole world. This contrast itself is the best visual language."
Stangel became interested. "What do you want to do?"
"I haven't decided yet."
James candidly stated, "It could be a hand, a silhouette, or a market statistic that's plummeting. But the direction is, we don't draw the person; we draw the traces he left behind."
Where's the title?
Don't settle on a title yet.
Stangel waved his hand. "Things are still changing in Europe these days—UBS jumped the gun, Barclays followed suit, BNP Paribas hasn't made a statement yet, and Sarkozy is still holding firm. We'll decide whether to use 'prophet' or something else after we see how this ends. The article can be written first, the title can be saved for last."
As the meeting drew to a close, Michael Duffy, the Washington bureau chief, made a digression.
"We put him on the cover this issue, taking into account what he's done this past year,"
He stroked his chin. "He was basically on the shortlist for Person of the Year awards that year."
This statement silenced the meeting room for a moment.
"Who's on the list now?" Stangel asked.
Michael counted on his fingers.
"Paulson, for sure—the nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bailout of AIG, the $700 billion bill, kneeling before Pelosi in Roosevelt Hall—he used his power to the extreme during this crisis. Bernanke, another key decision-maker. Obama and McCain, the two sides in the election, one of them had to be there."
And then there's Phelps, with eight gold medals at the Beijing Olympics. Although that was last summer, he's one of the few names this year that doesn't inspire despair.
He paused.
"And then there's Walker."
"Do you think he has a chance?" Stangel asked, addressing the entire room.
Lana spoke first. Of all the people present, she thought Lu Ze was the most promising.
"If the standard is 'who had the biggest impact in 2008,' he carries the weight of no one else."
She said, "If you break this year down—Bear Stearns was acquired by JPMorgan Chase for two dollars a share in March, and he was involved; Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September, and he was involved; the commodities crash on Fuse Day, he was the fuse; the market was pulled back from the brink of collapse at the Far Star Bottom, and he was still involved. Any one of these four events alone would be enough to warrant discussion as last year's Person of the Year. And he, a twenty-six-year-old, accomplished them all."
"From the perspective of pure 'influence',"
She concluded, "I don't know anyone who has done more this year than him."
But Michael shook his head; he was looking at the issue from Washington's perspective.
"Influence isn't the only measure, Lana. Don't forget, if Obama wins in November, the first Black president, my God, that would be so symbolic. So symbolic it's almost unparalleled."
A nation taking over two centuries to go from slavery to a Black president in the White House—that's a historical narrative. Compared to that, a Wall Street trader shorting commodities…
His meaning was very clear.
"and,"
Arthur added, "TIME's Person of the Year traditionally leans more towards those who 'shape the political and social process.'"
Presidents, revolutionaries, popes, and sometimes a group—last year it was the Russian president, the year before it was 'you,' the internet user in that episode.
Have we ever had a short seller named person of the year? I can't recall. This would cause a huge controversy.
"We are not afraid of controversy."
Lana said, "We've voted for Shampoo, we've voted for Stalin, we've voted for Khomeini. The Person of the Year isn't the 'best person,' it's the 'most important person.'"
That's one way of putting it.
Michael acknowledged, "But those people are political leaders, instigators of wars, and the ones who truly changed the world's geopolitical landscape. No matter how capable Walker is, he's still dealing with the market."
"Isn't the market also a form of politics?"
Lana countered, "Especially in 2008. That crisis reshaped the relationship between governments and markets, reshaped the status of the dollar, and even got a French president talking about 'financial sovereignty.' Do you still think this is just 'a matter of the market'?"
The argument in the meeting room was getting heated. Stangel listened without immediately giving his opinion.
After a while, he raised his hand and put the topic aside.
"Person of the Year is determined after the November election."
He cleared his throat. "Then the entire editorial board will come and argue about this. Let them have their headaches. We're only concerned with this issue today."
He stood up and looked around.
"Division of labor. James, cover design, give me three options by Sunday, the direction is as you said—paint the traces he left behind, not him as a person. Lana, main text, 8,000 words, due Sunday night."
Michael, go back to Washington and see if the Treasury and the Federal Reserve are willing to talk to him, even anonymously. (The title will be at the bottom; let's wait until things settle down in Europe.)
Meeting adjourned.
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