A $50 million margin call? I'll short Wall Street.

The capital city, Fuxingmen Inner Street.

In the office building of a comprehensive business department of the National Development and Reform Commission, Wang Wenyuan's office light was still on.

It's already 11 p.m.

Wang Wenyuan stood by the window, watching the traffic on Chang'an Avenue gradually thin out.

His reflection in the glass window showed him now—he had lost at least ten pounds since his trip to Chinatown in New York three months ago. His temples, which had previously only been slightly frosted, were now almost completely white.

These past three months have felt like he's been boiled alive.

Since May, when Liu Jianming's super airline, despite his strong opposition, signed Goldman Sachs' "zero-cost collar option" fuel hedging agreement, Wang Wenyuan has become an extremely awkward figure within the system.

Oil prices broke through the $140 mark in June. Thanks to that agreement, Liu Jianming's airline was generating huge unrealized profits on its books every day.

Every time the ministries held a coordination meeting, Liu Jianming, though not explicitly saying it, could hardly hide his smugness that he was "thankfully not to have listened to Director Wang's blind commands."

The heads of two other state-owned enterprises who heeded Wang Wenyuan's advice and spent real money to add a "60-dollar drop limit" are now facing severe questioning from the auditing department about whether the $30 million option fee was a decision-making error.

As the deputy director of the "coordination group," Wang Wenyuan had no administrative authority and could only influence corporate decisions through professional judgment and political credibility.

When his judgment contradicted the daily profit figures, his political credibility was almost wiped out.

He even heard that some leaders were considering transferring him, an "old comrade who lacks practical understanding of overseas financial markets," to a more abstract research position after the Olympics.

Wang Wenyuan didn't care much about personal promotions. He had been working for thirty years and had long since seen through the ups and downs of life.

What he cared about was that he knew the contract Liu Jianming signed contained a black hole large enough to swallow tens of billions of yuan in state-owned assets. That black hole was there, quietly waiting for oil prices to turn around.

But he couldn't prove it.

He could only watch helplessly as the train sped faster and faster on this death track paved by Wall Street, while the passengers cheered for the scenery outside the window.

Or rather, he didn't know if he was right. If he was wrong, if oil prices wouldn't fall—

Until four days ago.

7 month 7 day.

A young man in New York City pressed the send button in distant Manhattan.

Then, just four days later...

Today is December 11th.

Wang Wenyuan turned around and walked to his desk.

Three web pages were open on his computer screen.

One is Bloomberg's English homepage, with the headline: "IndyMac Bank Collapses, Seized by FDIC".

One is Sina Finance's real-time market data page, where WTI crude oil prices are plummeting at a terrifying pace: 137.82... 137.62... 136.80...

The third is a feature article on Reuters Chinese website: "From shorting Bear Stearns to predicting IndyMac: Chinese 'prophet' Lu Ze and his Farstar Capital."

These three web pages, like three puzzle pieces, pieced together a complete picture that made Wang Wenyuan's palms sweat.

Lu Ze said that oil prices had deviated from fundamentals and began to liquidate his positions. Four days later, oil prices plummeted from a high of $145, with a single-day drop of more than 3%.

Lu Ze warned that the US financial system was extremely fragile and highly dependent on short-term financing. Four days later, the second-largest savings and loan institution in US history collapsed due to a liquidity crunch.

Even Wang Wenyuan, who had seen many ups and downs within the system, felt a suffocating shock when he saw these three news items.

This is no longer simply a matter of "looking in the right direction".

This is a twenty-six-year-old young man who stands at the eye of the storm in the world's financial system. He has written his own script in advance, and then watches the world meticulously begin to collapse according to his script.

Wang Wenyuan picked up the teacup on the table. The tea had long since gone cold.

But he drank it all in one gulp. The cold tea flowed down his throat, which strangely relaxed his nerves, which had been stretched to the limit.

On the table in front of him lay the internal briefing: "IndyMac Bank in the US Under Takeover; Chinese Fund Manager Issued Warning Four Days Ago." The briefing was wrinkled from being read over and over again today.

The open letter made no mention of fuel oil hedging, only oil; while the briefing expressed more concerns about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, but Wang Wenyuan was pleased that Lu Ze's judgment had been validated. This internal report had even been sent to the desks of higher-level leaders.

He opened the drawer and took out a calculator.

As a bureau-level official in the National Development and Reform Commission, he shouldn't be calculating such specific market points. His job is macro-coordination.

But he couldn't help it.

He pressed a set of numbers on the calculator.

Liu Jianming's airline signed a "zero-cost collar option" agreement; he'd seen the draft in New York. If oil prices keep falling, falling below the unprotected red line set by Goldman Sachs…

Wang Wenyuan's fingers moved rapidly across the keys.

If oil prices drop to $100...

It dropped to $90...

It dropped to $80...

When the calculator displayed the result, Wang Wenyuan stared at the enormous negative number and gasped. If oil prices really did fall below $80, the company's losses would be a bottomless pit that would infuriate the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.

Meanwhile, General Manager Zhao and General Manager Sun—those two state-owned enterprises that listened to his advice and spent over 30 million US dollars in option fees to firmly seal off the losses from the decline with a "60-dollar barrier."

If oil prices fall below $60, without that damn red line, plus the guaranteed option premium, you might actually make money!

Wang Wenyuan leaned back in his chair, staring at the ceiling.

He suddenly felt an urge to burst out laughing.

Over the past three months, he has been ridiculed by his colleagues, questioned by auditors, and criticized by his superiors without being named because of the more than 30 million yuan in "unjustified money." He is anxious every night, fearing that he has really made a wrong decision that will cause the country to lose a huge amount of foreign exchange.

Now, with oil prices falling below $135, with the collapse of IndyMac, and with Wall Street beginning to panic...

The enormous black hole, which was about to devour everything, was approaching Liu Jianming and his group at a visible speed.

He picked up the red secure phone on the table.

My finger hovered over the dial key for a while.

Calling General Manager Zhao and General Manager Sun now seems too deliberate. It makes it appear like they're trying to curry favor.

Besides, oil prices only dropped for one day, and they're still over $130. $60 or $70 is too far off. What if they don't even drop that low yet?

Wang Wenyuan patted his face, realizing he had probably lost his mind.

Or perhaps it's because I've been suppressed for far too long these past few days.

He put the phone back.

But he printed out the Reuters feature article about Farstar Capital.

He took the three-page printout and walked to the shredder.

But he didn't put it in.

He folded it twice and stuffed it into the innermost compartment of his briefcase.

Wang Wenyuan did not go home that night.

He lay down on the sofa in his office, his body extremely exhausted, but his mind unusually clear.

As he listened to the occasional traffic passing by on Chang'an Avenue, he mentally calculated the time difference between New York and Beijing, and how many days it would take for the price of oil to drop from 135 to 120, how many weeks to drop to 100, and how many months to drop to 80.

Such calculations are meaningless from an economic perspective and are also politically irregular.

This is an almost morbid sense of relief that an old bureaucrat, who has been suppressed for three months, is savoring alone in the darkness.