Becoming the King of Bottom Fishing After Going All-In on A-Shares

Lu Chenzhou stopped: "Let's contact them! Although there might not be enough time, we can still prepare."

At the same time, preparations are underway to establish a private equity firm.

Everyone in the conference room looked at him in confusion. What was too late?

Xia Yaozong wanted to ask, but Lu Chenzhou turned and left.

He looked at Zhang Yixing: "What do you think Brother Lu is talking about?"

Zhang Yixing frowned and pondered for a while before hesitatingly saying, "Do you remember at the salon on September 17th, Brother Lu said that below 2000 points would be the ultimate bottom of this bear market?"

"If you don't dare to buy now, but the market takes off in six months, won't you regret your cowardice and regret it later?"

Xia Yaozong was stunned for a moment, then stared at him in disbelief: "You mean the opportunity to buy at the bottom is really coming?"

Zhang Yixing shook his head: "I don't know, but Brother Lu knows, and it seems likely to happen within three months."

After Lu Chenzhou left the room, he did not close the door immediately.

Xia Yaozong was still standing at the door, his hand on the doorknob, watching the figure gradually disappear at the end of the corridor.

"Within three months," he murmured, repeating it over and over. "He said within three months."

Zhang Yixing sat in front of the computer, the screen still displaying the closing price of Huaxin Pacific at HK$4.91.

The intraday chart line that dropped from 5.60 to 4.85 was like a dull knife, cutting downwards piece by piece.

Zhang Yixing's voice was very soft: "He's not guessing, he never guesses."

Xia Yaozong closed the door, walked back, and pulled up a chair to sit down.

"At the salon on September 17th, he said that below 2000 points was the bottom. Everyone in the room laughed at him at the time."

Zhao Xianglong laughed the loudest, "If you think it's so good, then buy it!" He bought it.

The next day, with ten times leverage, I went all in on CITIC Securities at the daily limit down.

Then, three major positive developments came out that evening, and the market almost hit its daily limit up.

Zhang Yixing chimed in: "On September 26th, he said that BYD's 8-yuan coin has a diamond-shaped bottom."

Zhao Xianglong said he was crazy and that electric bikes were a joke.

Two days later, Buffett announced that the purchase price was exactly the same.

On September 29th, he said that BYD's price of 16 yuan was a short-term peak, and he went short with all his funds in the same minute.

Everyone thought he was crazy, and then the stock price plummeted from 16 yuan to 12 yuan.

On October 2nd, he said he would short Huaxin Pacific.

Some people say he's reckless; that's the Rong family's company.

He said, "Do you think Hong Kong is still the same Hong Kong as before 1997?"

Then Huaxin Taifu's stock price dropped from 22 yuan to 4.9 yuan.

Xia Yaozong leaned back in his chair, staring at the ceiling.

"Every single word he said was right, every single time."

There was a few seconds of silence in the room.

Li Ming stood in the corner, still clutching his phone.

He wasn't looking at his account; he'd made money again today, but he no longer calculated it every day.

He was trying to decipher what Lu Chenzhou had said.

"In another six months, the market will take off," he murmured.

Wang Hao, who was standing next to him, turned around and asked, "What?"

Li Ming pushed up his glasses: "Brother Lu said on September 17th that in another six months, the market will take off."

Today is October 22nd. He said six months, which means around March next year.

But he seemed to have said "within three months" just now.

Wang Hao was taken aback: "You mean the market trend will move forward?"

Li Ming didn't answer. He lowered his head, opened the calculator on his phone, pressed a few numbers, and then closed it.

"Whether it's six months or three months, I'll believe whatever he says."

In the corridor, a few students who hadn't left yet gathered together, whispering among themselves.

"Did you hear what Brother Lu said before he left? He said, 'There might not be enough time.'"

"I heard you. What do you mean? What do you mean 'too late'?"

Xia Yaozong asked him if he wanted to buy a fund company, and he said, "Let's prepare for it, although there might not be enough time." Then he added, "At the same time, we're preparing to establish a private equity firm in mainland China."

"A mainland private equity firm? Didn't he already register Zhizhou Capital in Hong Kong?"

"In Hong Kong, those are private equity funds, with a minimum investment of HK$100 million, mainly investing in Hong Kong stocks and overseas markets. Mainland private equity funds have a lower entry threshold and mainly invest in A-shares; it's about diversifying your portfolio across both markets."

"What did he mean when he said 'it's too late'?"

"Zhang Yixing later added, 'At the salon on September 17th, Brother Lu said that the market would take off within six months. Now he says it's too late, which means he thinks the market might not have to wait six months, but could arrive within three months.'"

"Three months? The A-share market? It can't even hold 1900 points now, and it dropped another 3 points today, closing at 1895. Can it take off within three months?"

"That's what Brother Lu said. Do you believe him or not?"

The person asking the question was silent for a few seconds, then said, "Believe."

"That settles it."

Renmin University School of Finance and Economics male dormitory building

The news reached the dormitory building at 7 p.m.

It's not official news; it's just a few words someone brought out from room 608.

Lu Chenzhou said, "There's no time left," and then added, "We're preparing to establish a private equity firm in mainland China." Zhang Yixing said, "He said the market would take off within six months." Xia Yaozong said, "Three months."

These fragments were pieced together, leading to the conclusion that Lu Chenzhou believes A-shares will bottom out and rebound within three months, and that he is already preparing to enter the market.

The entire building was blown up.

"Three months? The A-share market is currently at 1900 points, and he's saying it'll take off within three months?"

"From September 17th until now, every single thing he's said has been correct. Do you think he'll be wrong this time?"

"But it's at 1900 points! The market is in despair. It dropped another 3 points today, with a turnover of only 300 billion. Such low volume and low prices are indeed characteristics of a bottom, but isn't it too fast to take off within three months?"

"Fast? He went from 1 to 3 million in just one month. Do you think his 'three months' is fast or slow?"

"...you're right."

"And did you hear that? He asked Xia Yaozong to prepare to set up a private equity firm in mainland China. This shows that he's not just talking, he really wants to get involved in the A-share market."

"Is he going to bring the money he made from short selling in Hong Kong back to the A-share market?"

"It's highly likely that he's already made 3 million in Hong Kong stocks, and he still has short positions in hand. Once he closes them out, he'll have at least 3 million in cash. He'll then dump that money into the A-share market..."

"Stop talking, the more you talk about it, the more you regret it. Why didn't I invest in his fundraising campaign back then?"

At the end of the corridor, a student leaned against the wall, holding a laptop with a monthly candlestick chart of the Shanghai Composite Index on the screen. The index had plummeted from 6124 points to 1895 points, a drop of more than two-thirds.

He stared at the long bearish candlestick and muttered to himself, "Valuation, policy, cycle, human nature."

His roommate nudged him and asked, "What are you muttering about?"

He came to his senses: "Brother Lu said at the salon that below 2000 points is the bottom. What's his basis for that?"

"What is it?"

"The A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio has fallen below 15, and its price-to-book ratio is approaching 2, marking the lowest valuation range since the market's inception. The market has plummeted 68% from its high of 6124, with the correction lasting nearly a year."

Whether compared to the Great Depression in the United States or the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy, this decline in both magnitude and duration has reached the critical point where the bear market may be ending.

He took a deep breath: "This is about valuation and policy. What about cycles and human nature? When everyone is in despair, hope is not far away."

Today, Huaxin Taifu fell to 4.9 yuan. Retail investors were selling at a loss, margin traders were being liquidated, and some people were crying in the brokerage lobby. Isn't this despair?

My roommate was silent for a moment, then said, "You mean, this is the bottom?"

He shook his head: "I don't know, but Brother Lu does. I believe him when he said 'within three months.' And he's already preparing a private equity firm in mainland China, which means he's about to make his move."