World War: Battleship Arms Dealers

"In international politics, the status of a neutral country depends on the needs of the great powers." Schmidt's voice carried a hint of bitterness. "If Berlin judges this to be a necessary price to pay for winning the war, then Belgium's neutrality is just a piece of paper."

Chen Feng turned around, his back to the map: "So what about Britain? Will London just stand by and watch Germany invade Belgium?"

This question silenced Schmidt for an even longer period.

"Britain..." he finally said slowly, "Britain's attitude is very delicate. Sir Grey's Foreign Office has been trying to mediate, but Berlin and Paris are no longer listening. If Germany really enters Belgium, then the possibility of Britain joining the war... is over 70%."

"Seventy percent." Chen Feng repeated the number and walked to the window. Outside, the outline of Dubai Harbour was clearly visible in the afternoon sun, with four Bismarck-class battleships anchored like steel mountains at the deep-water dock. "That's almost certain."

A brief silence fell over the office, broken only by the low hum of the air conditioning system.

Wang Wenwu broke the silence: "Commander-in-Chief, what do we need to do?"

Chen Feng did not answer immediately. He gazed at the port, at the steel behemoths that had taken three years of painstaking effort and nearly emptied the national treasury to build, and at the more ships under construction in the docks further away.

"Mr. Schmidt," he spoke suddenly, without turning around, "you've come today to discuss oil contracts. How much more supply does Krupp wish to increase?"

The German advisor clearly hadn't expected the topic to veer back to this point, pausing for a moment before replying, "As per Berlin's request, they hope to increase monthly supply from the current 150,000 barrels to 250,000 barrels over the next six months. The price can be increased by five percent."

"Two hundred and fifty thousand barrels." Chen Feng turned around, a cryptic expression on his face. "Is this the supply during peacetime, or during wartime?"

Schmidt opened his mouth, then sighed, "Mr. Chen, you've already guessed. The General Staff has requested the establishment of a strategic oil reserve, and... if war really breaks out, the Royal Navy will likely blockade the North Sea Route. We need to obtain a stable fuel supply from other channels."

"So you've set your sights on the oil in the Persian Gulf."

"It's not 'valuing' it, it's 'relying on' it," Schmidt corrected, his tone becoming exceptionally serious. "Mr. Chen, I'm telling you in my personal capacity—Berlin has assessed that if war breaks out with Britain and France, Germany's oil reserves can only sustain the army and navy for a maximum of nine months of high-intensity combat. After nine months, if we can't find a new source of oil, our trucks will stop, and our warships will become floating iron coffins."

These words carried weight for the three Chinese people in the room.

Chen Feng walked back to his desk and sat down again. He tapped the surface lightly with his fingers, a habitual gesture when he was thinking.

"Two hundred and fifty thousand barrels per month, with an eight percent price increase," he finally said, "but I have three conditions to add."

"Speaking."

"First, the contract must be settled in gold, or converted into pounds sterling based on the gold price on the signing date. Second, Krupp must transfer to us the complete set of technical data on the latest armor steel surface hardening process within three months. Third," Chen Feng paused, looking into Schmidt's eyes, "if war breaks out, the German government must provide a written commitment that it will not recognize Japan's territorial claims to Shandong or other parts of China under any circumstances."

The first two conditions seemed to be within Schmidt's expectations, but the third one clearly surprised him.

"Japan? Shandong?" He frowned in confusion. "Mr. Chen, I don't quite understand... what does this have to do with our oil contract?"

"It will be ready soon." Chen Feng didn't elaborate, but simply took out a draft contract he had prepared beforehand from the drawer and pushed it in front of Schmidt. "You can take a look at the terms first. If Berlin agrees to these conditions, we can sign the contract at any time."

Schmidt took the document and quickly glanced through a few pages. His expression grew increasingly serious.

"Mr. Chen, these technology transfer terms... are very detailed and demanding. I need to consult Berlin."

"Of course." Chen Feng nodded. "But please tell your government that time is of the essence. The powder keg in Europe has already been lit, and Asia..." He looked eastward, towards the island nation across the sea, "...the powder keg in Asia may burn even faster."

At the same time, in Tokyo.

Inside a tatami-floored meeting room at Akasaka Retreat Palace, the air was stiflingly hot. Despite the ceiling fan slowly turning, the twelve men sitting behind low tables were still drenched in sweat—partly due to the weather, and partly due to the topic of their discussion.

Prime Minister Shigenobu Ōkuma sat in the main seat. The 67-year-old politician wore a traditional kimono, his graying hair meticulously combed. To his left was Army Minister Ichinosuke Oka, a soldier in his early fifties with a thin face and sharp eyes; to his right was Navy Minister Rokuro Yashiro, a few years younger than Oka, with a round face and round-framed glasses, looking more like a scholar than a general. (Was the Navy Minister Rokuro Yashiro at this time? Asking the AI, it was him; there's no information on Baidu Baike.)

Foreign Minister Kato Takaaki, Finance Minister Wakatsuki Reijiro, and other senior officers of the Army and Navy were also seated at the table.

"...In conclusion, the situation in Europe has irrevocably deteriorated towards war."

The speaker was Foreign Minister Takaaki Kato, who was holding a lengthy report that had just been sent back by the ambassador to the UK and was giving a briefing to the attendees.

"London's assessment is that Russia will issue a general mobilization order within the next forty-eight hours. Once Russia is mobilized, Germany will have to carry out its established war plan, which is to invade Belgium and France. As for Britain..." Kato Takaaki adjusted his glasses, "Sir Grey stated in the House of Commons yesterday that the British government will 'firmly fulfill its obligation to guarantee Belgium's neutrality.' This is practically a declaration of war."

A low murmur of discussion arose in the conference room.

"Let the Europeans fight their own battles." Army Minister Okaichinosuke's voice wasn't loud, but it carried the decisiveness characteristic of a soldier. "Our opportunity lies in Asia, in Shandong."

All eyes turned to him.

"Go on, Okaichi-kun." Shigenobu Okuma nodded slightly.

Okaichinosuke straightened up from his seat, placing his hands on the table: "Germany has been operating in Shandong for many years, and Qingdao has become one of the most fortified fortresses in the Far East. But they are currently preoccupied with their own problems—once war breaks out in Europe, all of Germany's colonies in Asia will become unclaimed land. Britain and France may covet it, but they must first deal with the war in Europe and cannot commit too many forces to the Far East."

He surveyed his colleagues, his eyes burning with fervor: "This is a once-in-a-century opportunity for the Empire. Declare war on Germany, seize Shandong, and completely expel German influence from the Far East. At that time, the Empire's hegemonic position in Asia will be unshakeable."