Reborn in 2012, building a new energy empire

On Monday morning, Jiang Haoran received a text message from Lin Miaomiao.

"Jiang, the technical directions you mentioned last time regarding slice loss rate were very inspiring after my labmates and I discussed them."

"We are designing a set of control experiments. If it's convenient, could you send me the title of the Japanese paper you mentioned about optimizing the cutting edge angle? It might not be in the school's database."

Jiang Haoran replied, "If you need help with the experimental design, I can come and take a look. Although I'm not a materials science major, I'm quite good at data analysis."

A few minutes later, Lin Miaomiao replied, "Sure. Next Wednesday afternoon is less crowded in the lab, is that convenient for you?"

"convenient."

On Monday and Tuesday, the soybean meal 1301 contract experienced a steady upward trend, driven by both speculative and industrial capital.

By July 10, the closing price had reached 3615 yuan/ton.

The market was filled with a frenzied atmosphere.

In financial programs, the focus of analysts' debates is no longer "whether prices will rise or not," but "how high they will rise."

Some people predict 3800, some predict 4000, and some even radically predict 4500.

During this upward trend, Jiang Haoran continued to implement his "rolling accumulation" strategy.

当价格突破3600时，他加仓200手；突破3610时，再加200手。至7月10日收盘，他的总持仓已达到1700手。

Due to the even greater price increase, his unrealized profits continued to grow rapidly. His total account equity exceeded 530 million yuan.

The margin utilization rate (margin/total equity) is approximately 57%, indicating that the risk is within a controllable range. Furthermore, the availability of over 150 million yuan provides ample margin buffer and room for contrarian operations to cope with any significant market fluctuations following tonight's report release.

Fatty Li was completely convinced. Following Jiang Haoran's instructions, his tens of thousands of yuan had now turned into more than two hundred thousand yuan, leaving him in a state of both excitement and daze.

"Brother Hao, is tonight's report... really that crucial?" Fatty Li asked in the dormitory that evening.

Jiang Haoran is checking the latest forecasts from the US weather model.

"This is extremely crucial. The previous surge was based on the logic of 'drought expectations.' But these expectations need to be verified or revised. Tomorrow night's report will be the moment of verification."

"If the report confirms that the US soybean production cut is greater than expected, then the market will shift from being 'expectation-driven' to 'fact-driven,' and the upside potential will be fully unlocked."

"However, if the report data is neutral or even bearish, and expectations are not met, it could trigger a sharp pullback."

Fatty Li swallowed nervously. "Then... what do we do?"

Jiang Haoran calmly stated, "I believe there's an over 80% probability that the report will be bullish. Therefore, I will hold my positions. However, if the market reaction to the report falls short of expectations, or if a 'sell the news' scenario emerges, I will immediately cut my losses."

He looked at Fatty Li: "Your position is small, so don't be too nervous. Remember, regardless of the report's outcome, the market will fluctuate greatly tomorrow during the day (it will be released in the morning in the US, but in the evening in China, and trading will only begin in China the following day).

"Okay, I'll listen to Brother Hao."

Jiang Haoran turned off his computer and went to the balcony.

The summer night breeze carried a sweltering heat, and the neon lights of the distant city flickered.

My phone vibrated; it was a message from Zhou Mingyu: "Brother Jiang, I heard you're also following the soybean meal market. What are your thoughts on tonight's US soybean report?"

Jiang Haoran replied: "It's highly likely to be a positive factor, but we need to be wary of the market fully priced in the good news. The key is to watch the market's reaction."

"I understand. By the way, regarding the cooperation, my initial funding of 3000 million is basically in place. How's your side's consideration going? Is the agreement ready?"

"Thank you for your trust, Young Master Zhou. The cooperation agreement is being drafted, and we will give you the results this week."

"Very efficient. Looking forward to cooperating."

After ending the conversation, Jiang Haoran received another text message from Lin Miaomiao.

The email contained a draft of the experimental data; I asked him to check if the statistical methods were reasonable.

Jiang Haoran replied with some suggestions, and finally wrote: "I have important things to take care of tomorrow, so I may not be able to reply to your message in time. I will definitely be at the lab on time on Wednesday afternoon the day after tomorrow."

"Okay, you go ahead and get on with your business. The experimental data isn't urgent."

Everything was progressing smoothly, but Jiang Haoran's mind was completely focused on the report that would shake the global agricultural product market that evening.

To my recollection, the USDA report from July 2012 was indeed an "epic" report.

The US soybean yield has been significantly revised downward from the previous estimate of 43.9 bushels per acre.

Meanwhile, due to the continued drought, the area of ​​abandoned planting has increased, and the planting area is also lower than expected.

This report definitively confirms the expectation that "a rare drought has led to a significant reduction in production," becoming the strongest catalyst for the bull market in soybean meal and even the entire agricultural sector.

Following the report's release, domestic soybean meal futures hit their daily limit for several consecutive days, leading to a severe shortage in the spot market and panic buying by feed companies.

But Jiang Haoran also remembered that after the market surged to its peak, it would begin to experience violent fluctuations in late September.

Because excessively high prices would suppress demand, the market has begun to trade on the logic that "reduced production has already been priced in, and future focus will shift to South American planting."

His plan was clear: after the positive report was confirmed, he would continue to increase his position and embrace the main upward trend; but in the first half of September, when the market was at its most frenzied, he would gradually reduce his position and close out most of his holdings.

He wanted to eat the fattest and most delicious part of the fish, not risk gambling on the last part, the tail.

At 9:30 p.m. sharp, Jiang Haoran sat down in front of his computer.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture report will be released at 22 p.m. Beijing time.

In the dormitory, Fatty Li was restless, scratching his head anxiously.

At 21:50 PM, Jiang Haoran opened multiple information sources: the USDA official website, real-time news from foreign media, and domestic futures forums.

My heartbeat is steady and my breathing is even.

The experience and composure accumulated since his rebirth are now on full display.

22 o'clock exactly.

Report released!

Jiang Haoran quickly scanned the key data:

US soybean yield: 40.5 bushels per acre (previous value 43.9, market average expectation 42.1).

US soybean planting area: 7610 million acres (previous estimate 7890 million acres)

US soybean ending stocks: 1.15 million bushels (previous value 1.4 million, market expectation 1.25 million).

A comprehensive and unexpected downward revision!

Almost simultaneously, foreign media headlines popped up: "USDA sharply lowers US soybean production forecast; drought impact far exceeds expectations!"

Domestic futures forums were instantly flooded with comments like: "It's explosive!" "Epic bullish news!" "Price will hit the daily limit up tomorrow!"

Jiang Haoran looked at the trading screen. Since the domestic futures night trading session had not yet been opened (in 2012, only a few commodities such as gold and silver had night trading sessions), the soybean meal 1301 contract was not available for real-time trading.

But the market opening tomorrow morning is destined to be a storm.

The report lowered the US soybean yield forecast by a much larger margin than the market expected, and inventories fell to historic lows.

This means that the global soybean supply shortage will change from an "expectation" to a "reality".

It's highly likely that the stock will hit its daily limit (4%) when it opens tomorrow.

The price will jump directly to around 3759 yuan (3615*1.04).

His 1700 long positions will directly increase his unrealized profit by nearly 245 million.

But this is only the beginning.

After hitting the daily limit, there may be a continuous upward trend.

Jiang Haoran quickly considered tomorrow's operational plan in his mind:

If the stock opens at its daily limit up, hold your position.

The larger the volume of buy orders at the daily limit up price, the stronger the potential for further gains.

If the price limit is broken, observe the trading volume.

If there is a huge price fluctuation, consider reducing your position; if the price remains locked after a change of hands, hold.

The key support level is at the 3700-point mark. If it can hold above this level, the upside potential will be towards the 4000-point mark.

After reviewing the plan, he shut down his computer.

"Brother Hao, how's it going?" Fatty Li asked impatiently.

"The report is very bullish. There's a high probability it will hit the daily limit up at the opening tomorrow," Jiang Haoran said calmly. "Go to sleep early, and don't rush to trade tomorrow morning. If it hits the daily limit up, don't rush to sell."

"Limit up... I actually managed to profit from the limit up in futures..." Fatty Li murmured, his face filled with barely suppressed excitement.

Jiang Haoran walked to the balcony and took a deep breath.

The night air was still hot, but his mind was clear.

The report has been released, and expectations have been met. The market has entered its most frenzied, and also most dangerous, phase.

Over the next month, he needs to remain absolutely calm amidst the market's greed and fear to reap the greatest rewards in this bull market.

Then, with sufficient capital, they turned their attention to the broader and more worthwhile industrial arena.

He looked up at the night sky. Countless stars twinkled, each one like a chess piece on a future chessboard.

He is learning how to manage multiple pieces simultaneously and set up a truly grand strategy.