Reborn in 2012, building a new energy empire

Chen Jingge hung up the phone and turned around. "You're back. Did you see your friend?"

"Yeah, we had a good chat." Jiang Haoran sat down on the sofa, his gaze still occasionally drifting towards the screen. "Uncle's been quite busy."

"Just busywork." Chen Jingge pushed the water glass over and sat down opposite him.

"My old job was quite stable, but I could see the end of each day in the blink of an eye. I felt like my ambition would be worn down if I kept going like that."

"While I still have some ideas and energy, I thought I should make some investments myself. So I pulled in two knowledgeable friends and we started this little place together."

Jiang Haoran took the water and decided to test the waters: "I see there are futures contracts on the screen; live pigs and soybean meal seem interesting."

Chen Jingge raised an eyebrow, somewhat surprised that his nephew would notice this: "You know about futures?"

"I've seen some materials at school, and I'm quite interested in them. I've practiced using a demo account before."

Jiang Haoran spoke modestly, but his tone was steady. "I just saw some news recently saying that the weather in the United States is quite abnormal, and the Midwest is experiencing severe drought."

"In my memory, those states marked on the news map that are most severely affected by drought, like Illinois and Iowa... aren't they also the world's main soybean producing regions? That gave me some ideas."

This seemingly casual, even somewhat student-like, uncertainty struck Chen Jingge, as a trader, like a fine needle, precisely hitting his most sensitive nerve.

Chen Jingge sat up straight, his gaze fixed intently on Jiang Haoran, a mixture of surprise and scrutiny in his eyes: "Your thoughts? Tell me specifically, what did you see?"

Jiang Haoran said, "I saw the trend forming. To verify this idea, I later went to the school library's electronic resource database and checked some original reports and charts issued by foreign meteorological agencies and agricultural departments."

His description began to become more specific: "The data is very clear: in June, rainfall in the core agricultural belt of the Midwest of the United States was more than 40 percent less than the average for the same period over the past 30 years."

"Especially in Illinois and Iowa, where soybeans are most concentrated, the official weekly soil moisture reports show that the available moisture content of the topsoil has been in the 'severe shortage' red alert zone for several consecutive weeks."

As he spoke, he observed his uncle's reaction. Seeing that the uncle's eyes were becoming more and more focused, he continued to delve into the most crucial part: "I also looked up information on the critical periods of crop growth."

"Soybeans enter the flowering and pod-setting stage in July, which is the most sensitive to water stress and the most crucial stage that determines the final yield in the entire growth cycle."

"If the drought is not fundamentally alleviated in the coming weeks..." He ended his sentence here at just the right moment, leaving a heavy, self-evident conclusion.

"There's a high probability of production cuts," Chen Jingge added, his tone tinged with surprise.

Chen Jingge got up and walked to the computer, his fingers rapidly typing on the keyboard.

Several charts quickly appeared on the screen, all of which were professional meteorological data in English and weekly crop progress reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

As he compared the information Jiang Haoran had just mentioned with the curve on the screen, his expression gradually became serious.

"I just happened to see it, and it left a deep impression on me." Jiang Haoran casually mentioned it. "Moreover, I remember that the No. 1 Central Document at the beginning of the year mentioned stabilizing hog production, and now hog prices have rebounded for three consecutive months."

"The US soybean quality rating has declined for four consecutive weeks, from 68% to 58%," Chen Jingge pointed to the screen. "Although the number of breeding sows in China is still low, it has stopped declining month-on-month. Your judgment is correct."

"Although the direction sounds reasonable," Chen Jingge said, "with futures trading, just because the theory is sound doesn't guarantee you'll make money."

"Whether it will rain, how the Americans will write their reports, and where all that money in the market is going—if we misjudge any link in the chain, we could all stumble."

He flicked his cigarette ash. "I've seen too many people who, despite being right, still end up losing everything. It's not that they're wrong about the direction, but that they're greedy, can't hold on, or get scared off."

"Look at the price now," he said, pointing to the number hovering around 3000 points on the screen for the main soybean meal contract. "It's information obtained from public data, so others can know it too."

"Both bulls and bears are holding their breath, neither willing to concede, just waiting for a definitive announcement."

"There's a huge divergence between bulls and bears, and everyone's waiting for a clear signal." Jiang Haoran nodded, following this line of thought, "So instead of rushing to place bets now, it's better to expand our intelligence network and cross-verify our judgment. It's not too late to act when that crucial signal gun really fires."

"By the way, Uncle, you have a lot of connections in the new media circle now."

"Do you know anyone who is actually working in the grain, oil and feed industry, doing spot trading or running a feed mill?"

"Their actual feelings on the front lines, such as whether upstream farmers are actively purchasing goods and whether soybean meal inventory is tight, sometimes reveal information earlier than the data on paper."

He thought for a moment and said, "Now that you mention it... I do have a ready-made candidate on my side."

"My partner, Liu Jinwang, you can just call him Uncle Liu. He used to be my colleague, but later he went out on his own and started his own business. He worked on websites, and now he mainly focuses on a financial self-media platform that he started, which is quite influential and focuses on commodities and industrial economics."

"He's quick-witted, and most importantly, he has connections on both sides—on one side, he's connected with many business owners, and on the other side, he knows some friends in the financial world who can mobilize funds."

"Isn't that perfect?" Jiang Haoran chimed in at the right moment. "People who are familiar with both sides often have a more down-to-earth perspective, are well-informed, and can see things more comprehensively."

"That makes sense." Chen Jingge thought it was feasible and picked up his phone.

"I'll ask him if he's free tonight, and ask him to think of a way to get together with one or two bosses who actually produce feed or raise pigs."

"Let's set up a meeting, listen to the sounds of gunfire from the front lines, and test your idea."

He dialed Liu Jinwang's number, exchanged a few pleasantries, and then got to the point: "Old Liu, my nephew is with me. We talked about his views on the soybean meal market, and I think he's got some insights into it. I'd like to find a friend who's actually in the real business to give me some feedback..."

"Yes, I'd like to invite some people. You have a wide network of contacts, would it be convenient for you to invite one or two owners of feed production or pig farming businesses to get together tonight?"

"Okay, you decide on the location, then send it to me."

After hanging up the phone, Chen Jingge said to Jiang Haoran, "It's done. Come with me tonight, listen more, observe more, and talk less."

"Understood," Jiang Haoran replied.

"You're thinking more methodically now than before," Chen Jingge said, looking at his nephew with a more thoughtful expression.

"However, having ideas alone is not enough. Your logic of combining data with practice is indeed very reasonable."

"Yes, if the product is indeed of high quality and the subsequent facts match up step by step, then this might really be an opportunity."