The Black Sails of the Ming Dynasty

Chapter 11 Probability Theory

As soon as she got started, Lin Qian unsurprisingly lost five or six games in a row, losing a total of two pesos.

Seeing Lin Qian's swift and decisive defeat, the Spanish sailors all smiled warmly.

Fueled by alcohol and gambling, the sailors began to open up.

"You must be sailors from the Manila Galleon?" Lin Qian asked casually.

"That's right, the Saint Anna... raise the bet!"

"I heard you sailed from across the ocean. Is there really land over there?" Lin Qian asked, feigning ignorance, while simultaneously placing a bet.

"Across from us is Amerigo, the continent of the New World!"

"I don't believe it. If there really is a continent, why don't you go there?" As Lin Qian spoke, she had already lost this hand, with the eight rials being split equally among the Spanish.

The cost of gathering information accumulated to three pesos.

"We need monsoons and the Kuroshio Current to set sail, so we'll have to wait a while."

Lin Qian deduced that the so-called monsoon was the southwest monsoon, which was formed by the northward movement of the subtropical high-pressure belt after the start of summer each year.

Merchant ships from Manila had to wait for the southwest monsoon to return to the Ming Dynasty.

The so-called Kuroshio Current is an ocean current. Based on his geographical knowledge from his previous life, he knows that the ocean currents in the entire North Pacific generally move in a clockwise direction. To get to the Americas, one must first ride the Japan Current and then the North Pacific Current.

On the way back to Manila from the Americas, we will take the North Equatorial Current.

It is February now.

Therefore, it can be concluded that there are still at least two or three months before the Manila Grand Galleon sets sail.

The Spanish sailors thought they hadn't said anything, but in reality, they had revealed all the information.

Then Lin Qian used the same method to buy all the information she wanted to know.

By daybreak, he had already spent more than twenty pesos on intelligence.

Having exhausted all the intelligence the Spanish sailors had gathered, Lin Qian prepared to get up and leave.

However, the Spanish sailors got more and more excited as they played, after all, the money they won in one night was equivalent to a month's salary.

Lin Qian tried to leave several times, but was stopped by the Spaniards.

A Spanish sailor took a leather bag from his waist, placed it on the table, and said, "If we win the next round, I'll give this to you, how about it?"

Lin Qian looked closely and saw that the bag contained the astrolabe he needed.

Seeing that Lin Qian was interested in navigation, the sailor decided to use the astrolabe as a wager to keep Lin Qian there.

In his view, Lin Qian had already lost all night, and it was impossible for her to suddenly turn her luck around and win the astrological chart.

Lin Qian's drowsiness subsided considerably, and she became interested, so she sat back down at the card table.

The card game they were playing was called "Ombre." Each player was dealt three cards and the hands were compared. The betting method was similar to Texas Hold'em, with each player taking turns raising the bet, and the others could choose to call or fold.

If you fold, you cannot get back the bets you have already placed.

When all bets are in the same suit, the cards are revealed, and the winner takes all the bets on the table.

The sailors deal the cards.

Lin Qian received two 12s and one 8, totaling 30 points, which was a very strong hand.

"One peso." A Spanish sailor placed a silver coin on the table.

"Call back." Lin Qian simply took out her silver coins.

He knew that if he called, someone would definitely have a better hand than him.

The remaining people followed suit and opened the bet. Sure enough, one person had thirty-two points.

After playing all night, Lin Qian had already figured out that the Spaniard was cheating.

The deck of cards had been used for a long time, and each card was somewhat soiled. It seemed like the soiling was unintentional, but in fact, there was a certain pattern to it.

Spanish sailors can tell the point value from the stains, and Lin Qian's call was just to trick the Spanish into a trap.

Before the next round began, Lin Qian used the excuse of changing her luck to ask the bartender for a new deck of cards.

The Spanish sailors now looked down on him, confident they could win even without the markings, and let Lin Qian change the cards.

In this round, Lin Qian's three cards were nine, four, and ten, totaling twenty points.

This type of Spanish playing card has four suits, with twelve cards in each suit, each marked with a different number from one to twelve, for a total of forty-eight cards.

According to the game rules, three cards are randomly drawn and compared. Based on probability theory, the winning probability can be directly calculated.

The calculations are just too complicated.

Lin Qian has a simple method: the median and average of the sum of the 48 cards are both 6.5.

The average score for 20 points is 6.67, which is higher than the median of the overall sample, indicating a win rate that is clearly higher than 50%.

If we simplify the calculation of 6.67 within the same suit, the winning rate is approximately 55.56%.

The results calculated by this algorithm are certainly not precise, but they are sufficient to assist in betting. "Raise the bet."

Lin Qian directly took out five pesos.

There are eight Spaniards at the table. If all of them call, Lin Qian can win thirty-five pesos in one go.

Not only can they win back the intelligence fee, but they can also make a small profit.

However, five pesos was a huge sum of money, and most Spanish sailors chose to fold.

Only one person gritted their teeth and bet.

After the cards were dealt, the man had nineteen points, which he just lost to Lin Qian.

Although she didn't catch any big fish, Lin Qian had already realized that after the cards were changed, the Spaniard could no longer cheat.

Now it's time to compete in math.

Lin Qian's strategy is to place a large bet whenever the calculated winning probability exceeds 60%.

His bets far exceeded those of the Spanish sailors, yet he still managed to lose many times.

The more times he bets, the closer his winning percentage will get to 60%.

……

Half an hour later, the Spanish sailors had lost everything.

Their eyes were red, and they were filled with self-doubt.

The astrolabe ended up in Lin Qian's hands, where she played with it.

This thing works on the same principle and function as a sextant, but it observes celestial bodies through a pinhole and does not have the complex lens structure of a sextant.

The degree markings on the astrolabe are indicated by a cotton thread with a lead ball hanging below it.

This design means that the astrolabe can only be used during stable navigation. Once the wind and waves are strong, the readings will be inaccurate. From a technical point of view, it is far inferior to the sextant.

But in any case, having the markings on the star chart can solve the accuracy problem of the homemade sextant to some extent, so the night was not wasted.

Lin Qian stood up, holding the astrolabe.

The Spanish sailors wanted to give chase, but they found a stack of silver coins left on the table.

The fifteen pesos not only covered the money they lost, but also gave them an extra five pesos.

The principle that one who is greedy for small gains will suffer big losses has been true since ancient times.

Lin Qian had a very fruitful night, so she naturally wouldn't be stingy with money.

Stepping out of the bar, Lin Qian felt somewhat drowsy.

On the way back to the ship, Lin Qian lay down on the bed in the stern deck and fell asleep without even taking off her clothes.

When I woke up, it was already evening.

Lin Qian got out of bed, feeling refreshed and invigorated.

Lin Qian called over the mute Huang, took out the design drawings of the sextant, explained in detail how to make it, and gave him a monocular telescope and an astrolabe, asking him to make a prototype first.

After receiving the gift, the mute Huang patted his chest and went out.

Lin Qian then had someone summon Bai Langzai.

Bai Langzai walked into the cabin and saw Lin Qian doing push-ups, with various odds and ends he had bought yesterday on the table.

"You're a Tanka person, so you must be a good swimmer. How far can you swim underwater in one breath?" Lin Qian asked while doing push-ups.

"It can swim more than 170 steps."

"Really?" Lin Qian stopped what she was doing.

For an average person, being able to swim fifty meters in one breath is considered impressive.

One hundred and seventy steps, roughly three hundred meters, is an extremely terrifying distance.

Bai Langzai nodded, looking dejected: "My sister can swim much farther."

Lin Qian stood up, took a package from the table, and handed it to Bai Langzai: "One hundred and seventy steps is enough."

When Bai Langzai opened the package, he saw that it contained copper wire, kelp, salt, and vinegar that Lin Qian had bought yesterday.

When copper wire and cast iron anchor chain become entangled, and seawater acts as an electrolyte, galvanic corrosion can occur.

The role of salt and vinegar is to remove rust from the surface of the anchor chain, expose the fresh cast iron, and accelerate the reaction.

The seaweed wrapped around the outside can conceal the copper wire, thus hiding its presence.

Obtaining the departure time of the large sailing ship and corroding its anchor chain—this was the first step in Lin Qian's plan.

"Help me deliver these local specialties there."

Lin Qian pointed to the Manila Grand Bazaar outside the window.

(End of this chapter)