Persian Empire 1845

Chapter 206 Strategy against the Ottomans

"The Shah's trip has been very fruitful; Iran has regained its status as a major power," Pezeshkian said happily.

"It's a bit too early to say now. Britain needs someone to help it fend off India, while other countries want a lot of wealth. If Iran can't provide them with value, then one day they will carve it up."

The Middle East is currently in a brief period of peace, with the Ottoman Empire, Iran, and Egypt coexisting peacefully. However, this fragile balance will soon be broken, as the Ottoman Empire is borrowing money everywhere, and Sudan cannot tolerate its former rival being more powerful than itself.

Naser al-Din had made quite a splash in Najaf and Jerusalem, overshadowing even the great Caliph of the world and the Sultan of the Ottoman Empire. To consolidate his position, the Sultan was determined to launch a war against Iran, believing he could sweep through the country like his great ancestor, Suleiman I.

His confidence stemmed from the achievements of the Tanzimat reforms. Following the Tanzimat decree, the central government continued its efforts to increase national revenue and weaken the power base of local elites. Central government tax revenue grew slowly but steadily, and Ottoman used this money to begin deploying well-trained troops to Trabisun and Van. According to reports, most of Iran's troops were transferred to Georgia and Baku to defend against Russia. Their plan was to launch a surprise attack and seize Tabriz, Iran's economic center, aiming to end the war within three months.

That's why he and the one in the East are kindred spirits; if sheer size guaranteed victory, Russia would have wiped out the Ottomans a hundred times over. The Ottoman reforms were more legal and social, with limited impact on the core economic aspects. This resulted in Iran's industrial situation being better than the Ottomans', and its industrial sustainability being longer.

Moreover, despite being one of the first countries to trade with Europe, the Ottoman Empire had not yet modernized its financial sector. Following the war with Russia, it began selling long-term bonds in London, Paris, Vienna, and Frankfurt. These bonds typically had a maturity of one hundred years and an annual coupon rate of 4%.

The Ottoman government borrowed large sums of money under extremely unfavorable conditions, paying significantly higher interest rates than other countries at the time. After deducting bankers' commissions, the Ottoman government's actual revenue was usually less than half the face value of the debt. Of that little money, much had to be allocated elsewhere, leaving very little for the economy.

Moreover, the war against Iran was a sudden move by Sudan and its government, but Iran's war against the Ottomans had been planned as early as the end of the Crimean War.

Iran prepared two plans. The first was to use Tabriz as bait to lure Ottoman troops into Iranian territory, and then to ambush and surround them. This plan carried a risk: using Iran's largest industrial city as bait, if the encirclement of the Ottoman army failed and Tabriz fell, Iran would suffer unimaginable losses.

Despite nationwide industrialization in Iran, Tabriz remains the country's leading industrial center. It produces 33% of the nation's textiles, 72% of its steel, 65% of its weapons and ammunition, and 80% of its machinery. Furthermore, it serves as a crucial link between Baku and Tehran; any threat to it would result in significant economic losses for Iran. Therefore, this proposal was rejected.

Since that option didn't work, the only remaining option was a preemptive strike. This involved attacking Baghdad, Van, and Trabisun first. The Ottomans didn't have enough troops to maintain a defensive posture on the border. After capturing Baghdad, they could then advance north to the key city of Mosul, west to Aleppo and Damascus, and finally reach the Mediterranean Sea.

This plan also requires Iran to commit its entire military force. Fortunately, Arab tribes are willing to provide assistance, which has alleviated some of the pressure. Meanwhile, Iran's good international reputation makes its bonds very popular, and if possible, Iran could continue to conscript hundreds of thousands of troops for war in a few years. Currently, Iran's industry and military are basically sound, but the last obstacle standing in their way of unifying the Middle East is European intervention. The previous leader, Ali Pasha, failed due to European intervention. For Iran to achieve unification, it must prevent European, especially British, French, and Russian, intervention.

For Britain, the Ottoman Empire guaranteed stability in the Mediterranean; for France, it was a vital investment destination; and for Russia, it was an obstacle to their expansion into the Black Sea. Any minor disturbance could prompt their intervention.

Therefore, to prevent them from interfering, besides long-term diplomatic efforts, we need to find a place where they can all benefit. This place must be large enough to satisfy both Russia's territorial claims and the economic interests of Britain and France. So, where can we find a place that satisfies both? Nasser al-Din looked eastward.

The war between Britain and France against Qing China had already begun, as they desired more markets and investment opportunities. Meanwhile, Russia, having never forgotten its ambition for ice-free ports in the East since the Treaty of Nerchinsk, actively expanded into the Far East after the Crimean War.

When Britain and France attacked Qing China, Russia planned to take advantage of the situation and seize the land north and east of the Heilongjiang River by force. Due to Qing China's policies, the entire Northeast region was defenseless, and the cession of territory was inevitable.

Under these circumstances, the only option is to offend the Qing Dynasty in order to divert the attention of the three countries from the Middle East. The weapons they are currently selling to the Qing Dynasty appear to be effective, having been very successful in suppressing the Taiping Rebellion. If the conflict is prolonged, it will be beneficial for Iran.

Another focus of attention for the three nations was Japan. Following the signing of the Treaty of Kanagawa, Japan was brought into the world system, but their resistance was far more intense than that of the Qing Dynasty. Numerous attacks by Japanese against foreigners occurred, which was intolerable to Britain.

One of the secret agreements between Britain and France concerned Japan. If one of the countries declared war on Japan, the other two would also have to join, and the spoils of war would ultimately be divided among the three countries.

As for the spoils of war, the three nations had already made their plans: Britain would receive Kyushu, France would receive Shikoku and western Honshu (Chōshū Domain), and Iran would expand its sphere of influence to Ryukyu and northern Honshu. Of course, as the first country to open Japan to the world, the United States would also get a share. With the addition of the US ambassador to France, the US would receive Ezo (Hokkaido) in Japan. The remaining territories would be ruled by the shogunate.

This agreement served as a contingency plan, as it was uncertain who would fire the first shot. However, given Iran's erratic behavior, Britain and France felt it was the most suitable option. Of course, to allow Iran to continue its struggle with Russia in the Far East, they also signed a liability waiver with Iran, allowing its actions in the Far East to continue as long as they didn't affect their interests. This essentially meant that Iran would be locked in a power struggle with Russia in the Near East, the Middle East, and the Far East; its value to Britain was limited to this.

(End of this chapter)