Tiger Owl

Chapter 169 Analyzing the Lessons Learned
Inside the official residence of Marquis Wu, Sun Quan remained silent for a long time before asking Lü Fan in a hoarse voice, "Chief Secretary, why did this happen?"

Lu Fan slowly said, "I am actually a proponent of war. My opposition to war is different from the civil officials' desire for stability. There are too many assumptions involved. For example, transporting grain and supplies from the Yangtze River to Jiangcheng County for resupply seems easy on the map, but in reality, Jiangcheng County is three miles away from the Yangtze River. Unloading the grain and transporting it into the county town would require a large number of laborers and carts."

Distance is a minor issue; the key problem is that the enemy won't allow you to resupply so easily. They also have warships. If they charge up and fire a few arrows, several men will fall, and the rest of the laborers will be scared away. I've experienced this before. Especially since everyone loves fire, and supplies are vulnerable to fire, resupplying successfully is really difficult unless the army itself carries a large amount of food and supplies, or our navy destroys the enemy's warships first.

Sun Quan sighed deeply and said, "The Chief Clerk is right. Doing anything is not as simple as it seems, especially on the battlefield where things can change in an instant. The enemy will never let us do things smoothly."

"That's exactly the point. In order to win this battle, I believe we must learn from Gan Ning's tactics."

"What tactic?"

"First, clear the river, concentrate the navy to destroy or suppress all the enemy's warships, then seize the strategic location of Niuzhu, establish a logistics supply base, and then concentrate the forces to fight the enemy. I have studied the various tactics of Gan Ning's expedition, Lujiang County, Changsha County and Jiangxia County, and they are basically the same routine, but it is very effective."

Sun Quan nodded silently. At the time, they had underestimated the importance of supplies and failed to clear the river in time. If they had used their naval forces to eliminate the enemy first, the outcome would have been completely different. It was indeed a moment of impulsiveness and a lack of foresight.

At this point, Lü Fan added, "There is another reason for our defeat: our reinforcements did not arrive in time. After the enemy sent 30,000 troops to fight us, their 20,000 reinforcements arrived quickly, but our reinforcements did not arrive. Lord Wu, think about why you did not send reinforcements to fight at that time?"

Sun Quan knew the reason, of course. After a long while, he said, "We only have 80,000 troops in total. If we send 30,000 troops to the expedition and another 20,000 reinforcements, we will only have 30,000 troops left. If we take away 20,000 naval troops, the troops in Dantu County will only have 10,000 left. What should we do if Cao Cao's army comes to attack at this time?"

"That's the problem. Sun Ben only has 60,000 troops, but he dares to send 50,000 to fight us to the death. We have 80,000 troops, but we don't dare to send 50,000 to fight Sun Ben to the death. It's not that we don't have Sun Ben's courage, but that our bottom lines are different. Sun Ben dares to bet all 60,000 troops because Danyang County is not his stronghold. His stronghold is Jiujiang County. He has no worries at all. Even if he loses, he can retreat to Jiujiang County. But we can't do that. We must keep troops as a safety net. That's the difference between us."

"80,000 against 60,000, on the surface we have a numerical advantage, but our bottom lines are different. We must maintain a reserve force, and our navy cannot land. Therefore, our actual usable force is 50,000 against 60,000, putting us at a disadvantage."

Sun Quan broke out in a cold sweat: "So, it seems we might lose?"

"This humble servant simply wants Lord Wu to understand the reality."

Sun Quan asked anxiously, "Is there any other way?"

"There are two solutions. One is to immediately recruit a large number of soldiers to increase our strength to more than 100,000. The second solution is to ask Gan Ning to send troops to help us. The first solution requires a year to train the army and we also need to ensure that Sun Ben does not attack us during this year."

At this point, Lü Fan looked at Sun Quan with a meaningful gaze.

Sun Quan immediately understood that conscripting soldiers was clearly too late, and the fastest and most effective way was to ask Gan Ning for help.

"That's why the Chief Secretary advised me to ask Gan Ning for help!"

Lü Fan nodded, "It's just that asking for help would have to overcome a hurdle, and I was worried that Lord Wu wouldn't be able to accept it, so I didn't insist."

"You mean Lujiang County?"

“Exactly!” Lü Fan said frankly, “Whether we ask for help or not, Gan Ning will definitely seize this opportunity to take Lujiang County. Even if we are unhappy, he will still occupy Lujiang County. Therefore, Lord Wu must accept the hurdle of Lujiang County and be prepared to lose it.”

Sun Quan paused for a moment and said, "If I give Gan Ning a batch of grain or a batch of salt, could he abandon the Lujiang Army and directly send troops to Danyang County?"

Lu Fan shook his head. "Lord Wu still doesn't understand what I mean. What I mean is that regardless of whether we ask for help or not, and regardless of whether Sun Ben launches a surprise attack southward, Gan Ning will attack Lujiang County. This is a foregone conclusion. He is willing to turn against us and abolish our alliance for this. This is their established strategy and has nothing to do with our request for help."

"I understand!" Sun Quan finally sighed.

Lü Fan added, "But I advise Lord Wu not to send Gan Ning to Danyang County. It's easy to invite a god but hard to send him away. Does Lord Wu understand?"

Sun Quan nodded. "I understand completely. Let me think about it!"

Lu Fan took his leave, and Sun Quan paced back and forth in the main hall with his hands behind his back. He was considering the matter of Huang Zu. He realized now that it was not necessary to turn against Huang Zu and Gan Ning. Huang Zu had become a wealthy old man in the countryside and had no army to protect him. He could be dealt with by sending a few assassins and his head could be brought back to Jiangdong to pay tribute to his father.

My argument with Gan Ning was mostly about saving face. Gan Ning, considering the bigger picture, didn't kill Huang Zu, but I lost the Gan-Sun alliance because of a petty squabble. Now I realize how wrong I was! I lacked a sense of the bigger picture.

At this moment, a guard reported from below the hall, "Reporting to Lord Wu, Military Advisor Zhang requests an audience!"

"Let him in!"

Before long, Zhang Zhao hurriedly entered the official residence, bowed, and said, "Greetings, Lord Wu!"

"What's the situation outside? Is it very noisy?" Sun Quan asked with some concern.

Sun Quan was very worried that the civil officials would become dissatisfied, since the vast majority of them opposed sending troops, and the defeat would prove that their opposition was correct.

Zhang Zhao shook his head. "It's very quiet outside now, eerily quiet. There's not a sound at all, as if everyone is holding their breath."

"Why is this happening?" Sun Quan asked, puzzled.

Zhang Zhao was well aware of the situation, but he found it difficult to speak. Sun Quan noticed Zhang Zhao's hesitation and said, "Strategist, just say what you have to say. Now is not the time to save face."

Zhang Zhao considered for a moment and said, "There are actually three situations here. The first is those officials who support Sun Ben. They will hold private gatherings to celebrate Sun Ben's victory, but remain silent in public."

The second type is those who are indecisive and have an unstable stance. They cannot see the situation clearly at this time and dare not easily take sides, so they will also remain silent. This type of official is actually the most numerous.

The third type of official consists of those who had previously strongly advised the Marquis of Wu against launching a military campaign, but whose advice was ignored, leading to the defeat. They harbor resentment and now stand by indifferently, refusing to offer any opinion. This combination of three situations has resulted in a general silence throughout the Jiangdong officialdom.

(End of this chapter)