Starting with the smashing of Dunkirk

Chapter 237 If I can't outsmart you, I'll take George V's surname.
As for why he wanted to temporarily preserve the Volga-Caspian lifeline, enticing the Russo-Britanyan people to see a last glimmer of hope, thus continuously betting and increasing their stakes in it.
Ultimately, try to drain as much of the dog's blood as possible during the process.
Lelouch actually had very profound considerations.

However, he still doesn't have complete confidence in his plan.

Many details are only vaguely understood, and we need to proceed step by step. We need to see if the objective conditions are met and if the enemy has fallen into a trap before we can figure out the next move and how to counter it.

War is full of variables, and no one can plan everything in advance.

Therefore, he never told anyone about his complete plan, including Marshal Rupprecht. Because the time was not yet ripe, many of his predictions about the enemy were based on the foresight of a time traveler, and he couldn't explain the source of that information.

But now, as the fighter jets draw ever closer, the situation has become a little clearer, and many details that Lelouch had noticed through his transmigrator prophecy have gradually been verified.

Therefore, Lelouch felt that he might be able to reveal a little bit to Lieutenant General Lister, his absolute confidant, so that he could cooperate with him in setting up a scheme.

After all, there is Lieutenant General Delmensingen who is not convinced of his authority and may cause trouble. Lelouch has just been promoted and his foundation is not deep. If he finds a staunch ally who will never leak secrets, the executive level will be much easier to manage.

Guided by this line of thinking, it gradually became clear which things were appropriate to say to Liszt now and which things should be said later.

Lelouch organized his thoughts and then explained step by step:
"I'm keeping the Volga-Caspian River, the theoretical lifeline for Burkina Faso's aid to Russia, intact, and enticing Burkina Faso to invest more resources. The specific reasoning behind this plan is as follows:"
As long as our army doesn't cut off the Volga River and the Caspian Sea, and instead makes a reckless advance to capture the Caucasus, then with key nodes like the Baku oil field cut off, if the Burkina Faso people still want to use the Caspian Sea route to aid Russia, they will have no choice but to fully commit to the battlefields in Iraq and Persia, striving to open up key nodes such as Baghdad, Mosul, and Tabriz, and ensuring stable control over Tehran.

As the war dragged on, the Middle East theater had previously been a tug-of-war between the Empire and the Kingdom of Britannia, primarily between Baghdad and Basra. The Empire had sent Marshal Goltz to Baghdad to coordinate the defense of the Iraqi heartland and attempt a counter-offensive against most of the Persian territory partitioned by the Kingdom of Britannia. Meanwhile, the Britannians, leveraging their maritime advantage, had maintained control of the port of Basra at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

If we conquer the Caucasus, a portion of our 6th Army can be diverted south to support Baghdad via Tabriz, and then push back on Basra and Tehran. At that point, the Bretonnia will be forced to fight tooth and nail to hold Basra and Tehran—and I have a plan to ensure that the Breton army and navy suffer another devastating blow because of their support for the Middle East!

Lieutenant General Eugen Lister listened attentively. When he heard Lelouch pause, he was still somewhat uneasy and cautiously asked, "Can I hear the details of the plan? If we go to the Middle East in the future, what plan does the Chief of Staff intend to use to eliminate the Burkina Faso people there?"

Lelouch offered an encouraging smile and then asked a thought-provoking question: "Don't just listen; think for yourself. Do you understand the current situation in the Middle East? Can you see the current strengths and weaknesses of our enemies?"

Lieutenant General Lister pondered for a moment: "I am somewhat aware of the current situation in the Middle East. I know that the fighting has not been going very smoothly, and it has been a stalemate. However, Marshal Gortz has returned to the front lines in Baghdad this month despite being ill, so the situation should improve again. I can't say exactly how much it will improve."

As far as I know, the fighting strength of the Burkina Faso and Russo people in the Middle East theater is far inferior to that of the Empire's elite troops. It's just that the Empire's elite troops deployed to the Middle East are too few. In name, there is only one army, but in reality, it is not fully staffed and cannot even muster two divisions. The main force is still the 200,000 Ottoman troops fighting.

The Britannians' main advantage lay in the fact that they had been puppets of the Persian Qajar royal family for many years before the war, so they used a considerable number of local Persian puppet troops to form the 'Southern Persian Rifles' and the 'Dunster Army'. They also had a steady stream of colonial troops brought in from India, and could be replenished locally and continuously via sea routes from the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf.

The Ottoman and Empire armies faced severe supply difficulties near Baghdad. Aside from enough food, other supplies were hard to transport because the Ottoman Empire's domestic infrastructure was extremely poor.

Years before the outbreak of war, the empire had promoted the 'Baghdad Railway Plan' to the Ottomans, attempting to plan a railway from Berlin to Istanbul, then to Baghdad and Basra. However, because the Ottoman Empire believed that this would seriously threaten its hegemony in the Indian Ocean, it had been threatening and obstructing it.

I remember that before the war, only the section of this railway from Istanbul to Ankara and Konya was completed. But the railway from Konya eastward, crossing the Eastern Taurus Mountains to Mosul, was blocked by the Kingdom of Burkina Faso, even though the Empire had obtained authorization as early as 1903. It was not built until the war started, and later there were even fewer resources to build it.

Today, the Ottomans relied entirely on trains to transport weapons, ammunition, and other non-food supplies to their frontline troops. From there, the supplies were transported by human and animal power across the Eastern Taurus Mountains into northwestern Iraq, and then transferred to road or rail transport.

Transport along this route is too difficult, so only a small number of troops can be maintained at the front, and they are also short of artillery and ammunition. If supplies were more plentiful and more troops could be supported, the fighting capacity of the small number of troops in the Middle East and their colonial allies would be negligible!
However, the situation seems to have changed recently. I heard that in the past two months, many Arabs under Ottoman rule in the Middle East have also responded to Bretonnia's instigation. Apparently, there is a guy named Lawrence, I don't know if he is a diplomat or a sabote, who is frantically promising benefits to incite the locals to rebel.

The Nejd and Hejaz regions are in chaos, as is the southern Levant; the situation in Iraq is relatively better for now. If this force cannot be contained, the war situation in the Middle East could deteriorate rapidly.

Lieutenant General Lister was quite professional and always paid close attention to the movements of friendly forces, and he knew these situations very well.

This is all publicly available information; anyone who wants to know can find it. It all comes down to whether a general is eager to learn.

Therefore, he succinctly pointed out several key issues concerning the future Middle East battlefield:
In terms of military strength, the enemy was no match for them, but they could mobilize a large number of locals to fight, and they also stirred up many Abu tribes and received a steady stream of Indian reinforcements.

The empire's elite forces are incredibly strong, but their supplies are insufficient to sustain large-scale army deployments.

If two key issues can be resolved—first, the empire's logistics, or quelling the local rebellion that Lawrence has just started—then it will be crucial.

If either of these two issues can be resolved, and combined with the fact that the Lussa people will be defeated in the Caucasus theater and that a small portion of the Demanian army in the Caucasus can be sent south to support the Middle East, then the situation in the Middle East could be decisively reversed.

If these two points are completely eradicated, then without a doubt, the influence of the Burkina Faso in the region will be completely wiped out, and what awaits them will be another catastrophic annihilation.

After summarizing his thoughts, Lieutenant General Liszt asked Lelouch for advice in a concluding manner:

"Therefore, the key to victory or defeat in the Middle East in the future lies in two points: 'our army's logistics' and 'pacifying the local rebellion stirred up by the enemy's forces'."

"Chief of Staff, do you have a way to resolve these two points? And is the solution related to the strategy we're adopting for the Caucasus campaign today?"

Seeing that Lieutenant General Lister was already quite adept at thinking, Lelouch nodded approvingly.

"That's a great question, and the summary is very crucial! Since you've already come this far, I can answer you directly:"
I have strategies to solve both of these problems;

Moreover, all the strategies employed are intricately linked to the Caucasus strategy to be implemented in the coming days.

Lieutenant General List was immediately invigorated by these words, holding his breath as he listened intently to the Chief of Staff's further instructions. Lelouch then held up two fingers and began to analyze the situation with great enthusiasm: "To solve the logistical problem, I actually have a plan. In the future, we might consider using a more efficient railway line to transport supplies for the army, bypassing the current Istanbul-Ankara-Konya railway."

Because the route from Konya to Mosul, northwest of Baghdad, involves crossing the treacherous Eastern Taurus Mountains. This road is extremely difficult to traverse; the Eastern Taurus Mountains are second only to the Greater Caucasus Mountains in terms of ruggedness in the Middle East, and transport capacity is very limited.

We could completely replace the current railway-mountain-railway combination with a railway-sea-railway combination. For example, we could consider taking a sea route from Istanbul or a seaport on the southern coast of the Anatolian Peninsula to the Levant region (present-day Syria/Lebanon) on the easternmost coast of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Then, using the Alexandretta-Mosul-Baghdad railway, or the Beirut-Mosul-Baghdad railway, the final frontline supplies were transported.

The Eastern Taurus Mountains are an unavoidable natural feature on land, stretching from Armenia in the Greater Caucasus Mountains all the way to the eastern Mediterranean coast, severing transportation between the Anatolian Peninsula and the heart of the Middle East. It was this mountain range that caused numerous obstacles to the construction of the Berlin-Baghdad railway, arguably the biggest bottleneck in the proposed Berlin-Baghdad railway plan.

However, if one were to take a short sea route along the southern coast of the Anatolian Peninsula, passing near Cyprus and reaching Alexandre de la Tahrir or Beirut, the Eastern Taurus Mountains would be completely bypassed. The sea route also possesses enormous transport capacity; with proper preparation, it could easily transport tens or even hundreds of thousands of tons of goods at once. If this route were to be successfully navigated even once or twice, the armies of Boutros and Luzon in the Middle East would inevitably face annihilation!

"By then, after we finish the Caucasus campaign, we'll send several armies south by land to Baghdad. These troops will then have ample supplies and can completely wipe out our enemies in the Middle East!"

Upon hearing Lelouch's plan, Lieutenant General Lister was utterly stunned. He immediately realized a huge problem:

"This...this is too audacious! Although everyone knows that it is possible to bypass the Eastern Taurus Mountains by sea, no one has ever dared to even consider it all these years. The Britannians have absolute control of the Eastern Mediterranean! Their Mediterranean fleet will tear our supply convoy to shreds!"

Lelouch laughed upon hearing this: "If even you think so, then it means my future plan has a chance. We can totally sneak around and smuggle a small amount of supplies once. Smuggling is still possible, at least the first time has a good chance. Even if it fails, we'll only lose some supplies, and the personnel losses won't be too great."

Secondly, we can use some fast destroyers for smuggling, instead of relying on slow fire ships. Finally, we can even consider deploying the Black Sea Fleet to escort the smuggling convoys. The Empire now completely controls the Black Sea; the Russa's Black Sea Fleet has been utterly destroyed, and all the port cities along the Black Sea coast except Sochi have been captured by us.

The Britannians had previously concentrated their naval forces on their homeland, leaving their Mediterranean fleet primarily composed of pre-dreadnoughts, aiming to overwhelm the enemy through sheer numbers. If the Empire's battlecruisers, the Moltke and Goeben, were to exploit this enemy complacency with a secret sortie, carrying only high-speed auxiliary vessels, to break through the Istanbul Strait, cross the Aegean Sea, and enter the Cypriot waters of the Eastern Mediterranean to provide escort once or twice, it was entirely possible to catch the enemy's Mediterranean fleet completely off guard!
Especially considering the enemy's Mediterranean fleet was severely damaged and weakened in the Gallipoli campaign last year, with many pre-dreadnoughts sunk! Even with a numerical advantage, the remaining pre-dreadnoughts might not necessarily be able to gain the upper hand against the Moltke and Goeben. Although the enemy has also sent a small number of dreadnoughts to the Mediterranean, it's not enough. We must force the enemy to move even more warships from their homeland in the North Sea to the Mediterranean!
In this way, it might even provide an opportunity for the Imperial High Seas Fleet in the North Sea. His Majesty the Emperor had repeatedly requested this from Marshal Tirpitz and Admiral Hipper last year, hoping that the Navy could fight more aggressively and find opportunities when the enemy fleet's forces were not concentrated and were at a disadvantage in some areas, so as to launch a decisive fleet battle and concentrate superior forces to weaken a part of the enemy.

At the time, Marshal Tirpitz and Admiral Hipper repeatedly advised His Majesty to remain calm. They concluded that the second quarter of this year should be the golden period when the gap in naval strength between the enemy and our forces was the smallest. In the second quarter of this year, our new battleships, the 'Barria' and 'Baden', would be able to form combat capability, and the Empire would also have two super battleships with 380mm main guns. At the same time, other capital ships damaged last year would also be able to be repaired.

Meanwhile, the enemy's battleship HMS Queen Elizabeth was not yet fully repaired, and HMS Warspite had sunk the previous year. Although the third to fifth ships of the Queen Elizabeth-class, HMS Barham, HMS Warrior, and HMS Malaya, had also been completed, the Empire still had a chance against three 15-inch gun battleships.

If we delay any longer, by the third quarter, the HMS Queen Elizabeth will be repaired, and the two newest Renown-class battlecruisers will also enter service in the third quarter. However, the Imperial's subsequent Baria-class ships will be even slower to enter service, which would be disadvantageous for us.

In particular, the high-speed battlecruisers of the 'Renown' class would overwhelm any enemy battlecruisers with 15-inch guns, and our outpost battlecruiser fleet would be crushed. If the Empire wants to achieve a decisive naval battle, it must do so before the enemy's 'Renown' class enters service, or it can only wait until our 'Mackensen' class also enters service to counter the enemy's 'Renown' class.

Therefore, if we can gain a slight advantage in the Eastern Mediterranean theater during the second quarter of this year, forcing the enemy to divert a considerable number of dreadnoughts from their home fleet to encircle and destroy our Black Sea Fleet using the Moltke and Goebbels, then Admiral Hipper will have a much greater chance of finding opportunities in the North Sea.”

There was one more thing Lelouch didn't tell Lieutenant General Lister: he had already discussed it with Admiral Hipper and Gustav Krupp.

When the time is right, the battleship "Baden" could fabricate records during sea trials to announce that "the new 380mm main gun technology was too radical and the pressure resistance of the new gun barrel steel was overestimated, resulting in the barrel exploding of the new high-powered propellant charge".

Then, the "Baden" was sent back to dry dock for repairs, and the "Barria" was also declared to have undergone a major overhaul and reinforcement of its gun barrels. They were then towed to shipyards near East Prosen or even Riga for secret repairs, ensuring that Burkina Faso spies could not detect them.

This way, the Burkina Faso navy might underestimate the enemy. Then, Lelouch could create some opportunities that force the Burkina Faso navy to attack, and make them think they can win with their home fleet. This would make the Jutland naval battle in this dimension much easier.

Of course, it won't be called the Battle of Jutland anymore, because the location of the battle will definitely change.

According to Lelouch's estimation, the North Sea naval battle in this dimension will likely revolve around the Norwegian Sea issue and the Arctic shipping route.

Because the Russo people will complete the Murmansk-St. Petersburg railway, which cost millions of lives, and the Murmansk seaport will also be repaired in April or May. At that time, the Russo people, who have been starving for more than half a year, will definitely be desperately in need of supplies from the Murmansk shipping route.

If the Demanian Navy finds an opportunity to intercept the Murmansk shipping route, the Royal Navy of Blagoveshchensk will have no choice but to respond.

This is far more effective than Admiral Scheer's fancy seduction tactics in the Earth dimension. Lelouch doesn't play those accidental tricks; he only fights battles that attack where the enemy must defend!
Moreover, Lelouch had already laid some groundwork in the Gulf of Bothnia in the Baltic Sea before winter last year.

At that time, the Baltic campaign had just ended, the Gulf of Riga coast had been completely occupied by the Demanian army, and Mackensen's Army Group North had won a great victory. Lelouch had obtained some evidence that "pro-Bolshevik elements in Norway were sabotaging neutrality and colluding with certain anti-Royal pro-Bolshevik factions in Sweden to transport weapons to Luza."

Later, due to the arrival of winter, the Gulf of Bothnia froze over, and there was nothing left to dig along the road for the time being.

It's almost April now, and the Gulf of Bothnia, with its extremely low salinity and freezing point close to that of freshwater, will thaw again and become suitable for shipping. At that time, those traitors from Norway and the few Swedish ministers who secretly undermined neutrality without the king's knowledge will resurface.

Meanwhile, Lelouch had already instructed the Archduke of Baden to inform his brother-in-law, Gustav V, that he had been secretly investigating and had already laid a trap within Sweden.

When Demand feels the time is ripe for naval warfare, Gustav will then play the "Norway undermining Swedish neutrality" card, leading to a combined Norwegian naval and land war.
If he still can't dismember the Royal Navy, Lelouch will accept the humiliation of taking George V's surname!
Of course, all of this is still just a vague strategic outline at present, and many details need to be explored step by step.

For example, if the Burkina Faso were to bring the Frankish Navy to the Mediterranean, or bring the Italian fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean to jointly fight against two Moltke-class ships, how would they respond?
Lelouch actually had other plans in mind for these possible changes, but things weren't that complicated yet, and there was no need to reveal all his strategies and deductions.

Regardless, the initial move of enticing Burkina Faso to invest heavily in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean is certainly a worthwhile one.

(End of this chapter)