Starting with the smashing of Dunkirk

Chapter 218 A qualified staff department should at least prepare plans for all potential enemies.
"You're saying the Schlieffen Plan is a half-finished product in terms of politics and diplomacy? That's interesting. Not many people dare to say that anymore. I hope you can give a detailed explanation, otherwise your arrogant words today could be punished."

Marshal Goldz was actually really looking forward to Lelouch revealing some valuable insights, but on the surface he still had to pretend to be selfless.

Although everyone at the Potsdam Military Academy knew that Goltz and Schlieffen had a deep-seated feud.

Lelouch had no need to curry favor with this retired headmaster; he simply offered his impartial analysis:
"I remember that in early July 1914, the Emperor actually expressed his unwillingness to start a war on several occasions—although, it must be admitted, that relations between the Empire and the Britannians had deteriorated considerably during His Majesty's more than twenty years on the throne, which is an objective fact."

However, the Emperor did not intend to initiate a war at that point in 1914. The Empire's navy, its imports of supplies, and its strategic reserves were all unprepared for a full-scale war.

The Britannians are not as powerful as our country. If a long-term arms race were to take place, even if they made bold statements like "For every battleship the Empire builds, the Royal Navy of Britannia will build two," it would only be empty boasting. If we were to compare industrial strength over a longer period, Britannia's industrial capacity would simply not be able to deliver on that promise!
Therefore, people cannot conclude that Your Majesty intended to wage war in July 1914, at that critical juncture, simply because Your Majesty might want to launch a competition against the Kingdom of Burkina Faso at some point in the distant future.

Ultimately, everything turned out this way because of the Schlieffen Plan and the incompetence and dereliction of duty of the Schlieffen General Staff. I once obtained proper access to the Reich's internal minutes, which clearly show that in two closed-door meetings on July 22nd and 26th, 1914, His Majesty inquired of the ministers of the General Staff and the relevant foreign affairs departments:

Is it possible to avoid this war? Or is it possible to fight only with the Russa? If the war does break out, given the situation at the time, there's a 99% probability that it's because Austria, seeking revenge for the killing of the crown prince, is going to war with Cyprus. And Russa, to attract the attention of the Greater Russa Kingdom, will go to war with Austria and with our Demanian allies.

Although the Franco-Russian Treaty had some effect, it was still just a "treaty" and not an "alliance" between us and Austria. It required that when one side was invaded by a third country, the other side had an obligation to defend it. However, it did not say that if the Russians initiated a war, the Franks would also have an obligation to help them.

In any case, at this critical juncture in mid-to-late July 1914, because the prelude to the outbreak of war was an unexpected assassination, coupled with the fact that Serbia had launched and won a Balkan War in the Balkans in 1912 and 1913 (the Second Balkan War was not launched by Serbia, but it was won), there were many extra-regional countries in Europe that felt that Serbia was too aggressive and had taken the initiative to provoke major powers.

If the Empire had exercised more restraint at that time, it was theoretically possible to launch a separate war against Russa, preventing France and Bolsonaro from intervening immediately. But why didn't this happen in the end? The main reason was that the General Staff only prepared the Schlieffen Plan!

The Schlieffen Plan did include operations against Russa, but those plans were very rudimentary and even presupposed a premise: "First, use a small mobile force to feign an attack and delay the French army for six weeks, then use this time difference to completely annihilate the Franks, and then turn back to deal with the French army." As for how to fight after turning back, there was almost no development; it was simply a matter of reacting to each move as it came.

How big are the loopholes here? The Schlieffen Plan did not include any option of attacking Russa separately without going to war with Franks, or at least without attacking Franks! Moreover, the General Staff did not have any other plan at the time.

Therefore, His Majesty was finally told that "if war is to break out, there is only one plan, which is to eliminate the Franks as soon as possible," and that "there is no such thing as a local war mobilization targeting only Lussa, only a general mobilization." His Majesty was forced to provoke the Western Front after twice requesting the General Staff to come up with other plans without success, and being told that there was no time to urgently prepare another plan, and that this was the only plan to be implemented.

The internal memo also clearly states what His Majesty said to the generals after signing the mobilization order: "Gentlemen, one day you will regret what you are doing now."

Schlieffen, during his lifetime, also said that he was the successor of Clausewitz's ideas, and that his crude approach of placing military affairs above politics, economics, and diplomacy was "a contemporary improvement on Clausewitz's theory."

But how can his reforms be considered reforms? Can reforms effectively negate Clausewitz's opening statement that "war is a continuation of politics"? Is there any reform in the world that changes the very foundation of things?
Schlieffen also claimed that he was the successor to the great Chief of the General Staff Helmut von Moltke, inheriting his military thought. However, when Field Marshal Helmut von Moltke served as Chief of the General Staff, he had a "defend the west, attack the east" operational plan.

In the 1880s, Chief of the General Staff Moltke envisioned that "the western border is shorter, which is more advantageous to the defenders and suitable for building a dense fortified line, so it is sufficient to simply hold the border. The eastern border is wide, with complex terrain and low development, making it impossible to build fortified lines along the entire length, thus relatively advantageous to the attackers. However, the Russo region is vast, and we must learn from Napoleon's lessons. It is impossible to pursue a complete conquest of the Russo people. We can only fight a few brilliant mobile annihilation battles to continuously eliminate the Russo's manpower, create anti-war pressure within their country, and then offer the enemy relatively lenient and dignified terms for armistice negotiations to end the war."

Unfortunately, this plan was considered during Schlieffen's tenure as "though it could win the war, the victory would be meaningless, as it would not completely conquer any enemy country, and in the end, a dignified ceasefire would be given to the enemy." Therefore, under His Majesty's desire for territorial expansion, the General Staff turned to the more radical Schlieffen Plan, which aimed to completely conquer at least one enemy country through at least one war..."

Lelouch spoke eloquently and passionately, listing Schlieffen's core problems in one breath: the subjugation of superiors and the military's dominance in politics.

This is the core issue, and it betrays the core arguments of Clausewitz's "On War".

Surprisingly, Field Marshal Goldz did not interrupt, and listened to his rambling until this moment before interjecting, "What you're saying seems a bit excessive. The way the war has turned out can't be attributed solely to problems left by Chief of Staff Schlieffen. The executive level and other factors also bear responsibility."

Lelouch immediately clarified: "I didn't say it was all Chief of Staff Schlieffen's responsibility. In fact, Chief of Staff Moltke the Younger also bears responsibility. His Majesty and the Parliament have already reached a consensus on this matter, and Chief of Staff Moltke the Younger's resignation is entirely reasonable."

However, I would like to say that there are still many aspects of the detailed breakdown of the specific responsibilities of Chief of Staff Moltke that are worth studying.

The official reason given for Moltke's resignation as Chief of Staff was his failure to execute the Schlieffen Plan. However, his problems in execution were not actually that serious; his problems in preparing staff plans were far more severe than publicly acknowledged.

Chief of Staff Schlieffen died in 1913, and in the year or so before his death, his health had deteriorated so much that he was almost unable to perform his duties. Therefore, Chief of Staff Schlieffen did not actually follow the First Balkan War in 1912 and the Second Balkan War in 1913 in their entirety.

Prior to this, where did the empire's major diplomatic tensions and crises originate? They stemmed from the First Moroccan Crisis of 1906 and the Second Moroccan Crisis of 1911.

Both Balkan Wars were on the Eastern Front, and the tensions stemming from the Russo and its allies were rooted in the conflict between the Empire and the Franks. Conversely, both Moroccan crises were on the Western Front, and the tensions stemming from the struggle between the Empire and the Franks were the primary cause of global tensions. Therefore, during the years when Chief of Staff Schlieffen was formulating plans, he did not foresee that the tensions on the Eastern Front would surpass those on the Western Front. He could not have predicted what the subsequent events, such as the Sarajevo assassination, would be like, directly igniting the war, nor could he have foreseen that the Russo would provide them with a just pretext for war.
Before his death, Chief of Staff Schlieffen's plans were all based on the assumption that "the future war might be initiated by the Empire." He did not expect the enemy to provide an excuse, which led to our failure to seize the opportunity when it was presented to us—opportunity only favors the prepared.

Therefore, I believe that compared to the unsuccessful implementation of the Schlieffen Plan, Chief of Staff Moltke's biggest problem was his failure, in the two years after he took over, to work diligently and tirelessly to develop a new or supplementary plan based on the changing political and diplomatic situation. This would have addressed the question of "how to seize the opportunity if the enemy on the Eastern Front offers us a weapon or an excuse."

Because he failed to come up with any new supplementary plans and was passively resisting, when the unexpected event and war actually occurred, he had no choice but to implement the 'Schlieffen Plan,' which was not strictly adapted to the reality. Moreover, he failed to implement it well, so he should be dismissed from his post.

I believe that in the future world, any nation's general staff, if it deserves to be called a competent one, must develop specific contingency plans for all potential adversaries and devise strategies for fighting a war against any single nation. This is the proper attitude for the military to serve politics, diplomacy, the economy, and to remain loyal to the emperor, the nation, and the people. It should not be about placing the military above the nation and the people!

The question raised by Lelouch has been a lesson learned by many countries since World War I, and they have made changes accordingly.

Just like the Earth dimension, Demania had "White Plan/Yellow Plan/Blue Plan" during World War II, a bunch of different plans, and singled out Poland, Frankish and other neighboring countries, imagining how the war would be fought if only one of these countries were to go to war.

This is a lesson learned from the painful experience of World War I. They also know that it is impossible to rely on the Schlieffen Plan and try to make it work for everyone. Such a gamble has already cost them dearly, with the nation suffering a devastating loss.

Players who have played Hearts of Iron know that if you play as the United States, you will see a bunch of different colored plans in the United States' diplomatic and military policy lines, such as "black plan/red plan/green plan". There are not only military plans specifically targeting Demacia, but also plans specifically targeting neighboring countries of the United States such as Canada and Mexico.

These plans actually existed in real history and weren't fabricated by game companies like Paradox Interactive. It's because the U.S. military genuinely learned from the Demacians' past war experience and henceforth strives for comprehensiveness.

Because although Cannavaro and Mexico pose no threat to the United States under normal circumstances, who knows when an unexpected black swan event might occur that causes Cannavaro or Mexico to fall into chaos, or change regimes overnight, requiring the United States to swiftly eliminate them?
Similarly, many readers in later generations have heard the rumor that "before the Barbarossa operation in the Earth dimension, there was actually a 'Great Thunderstorm Plan' on the other side, so Barbarossa just struck first"—this statement is, strictly speaking, somewhat flawed. It can only be said that the "Great Thunderstorm Plan" did exist, but there is no evidence to suggest that the "Great Thunderstorm Plan" posed any immediate or urgent risk of being implemented at that time.

Perhaps "Operation Thunderstorm" was just a war plan to "have a backup plan against any neighboring country," and usually just sat idle in the staff's desk drawer. This is neither an exaggeration nor a biased view, and there's no need for unwarranted criticism.

Even Ding Wei from the TV series "Bright Sword" understood when he was in military academy: although the relationship between the great Eastern power and its northern neighbor was still very good in the early 50s, as a general, he could not let personal feelings or favoritism influence his judgment when making staff plans.

Even if they were allies at the time, we should still be wary of them. We should always have a defense plan in place in case we ever turn against them and start fighting. Those who criticize Ding Wei for "treating allies as hypothetical enemies" are just being pedantic.

These are principles that many people will understand decades from now.

Unfortunately, it is currently 1916 in Lelouch's world, and apart from Lelouch, the time traveler, no one else has had time to reflect on and understand this principle.

Thus, Lelouch naturally became the first to propose that "a qualified general staff should, in peacetime, formulate a separate operational plan for each of the hypothetical enemy neighboring countries, regardless of personal relationships or the current diplomatic situation. Because you never know when a black swan event might occur in a neighboring country, like the Sarajevo incident, causing a sudden change in the situation there, which must be dealt with immediately and decisively."

What Lelouch said to Marshal Goldz at this moment was actually quite similar to what Ding Wei said when choosing a topic in "Bright Sword".

However, Lelouch did not target any specific country, nor did he select any specific topic. He simply made a request to the future General Staff, requiring them to formulate N plans without discrimination or favoritism.

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P.S.: In the previous chapter, many people mentioned names to exonerate Liddhart, so I'll provide a brief analysis here. Those who mentioned names, please go back and take a look; I wrote "Liddhart's Strategic Deception," and I was addressing the issue, not the person!
I am not addressing all of Lydhardt's doctrines, but only his statements on strategic deception.

Even if some of what a person says is true, it doesn't mean that everything they say is true.

Many of the things the Director said were correct, but of course, what he said when he was trying to deceive the enemy was not.

Liddhart's analysis of Demania's statements is clearly a strategic deception, designed to lead the Demania further down the wrong path, encouraging them not to reflect on their mistakes, and ideally, to replicate the Schlieffen Plan in the next war, so that they can use the same tactics to defend themselves once again.

However, the reason why World War II occurred in the Earth dimension was precisely because Manstein did not copy the Schlieffen Plan. He gave the people of Burkina Faso the impression that "we think the Schlieffen Plan itself is not wrong, but there are problems in its implementation." In reality, he used the plan of the Young Reflectionists at the last minute, which defeated France and led to the Dunkirk siege.

(End of this chapter)