Starting with the smashing of Dunkirk

Chapter 214 No Poisonous Strategist Could Be More So
Lelouch hadn't expected that the operations in the Kievan Rus' region this year would yield such a large amount of grain reserves.

The 750 million tons in warehouses around Kyiv, plus the 220 million tons seized in warehouses in Kharkiv, total 970 million tons—what does this mean? If we consider a relatively abundant food supply, with an average annual food consumption of 400 kilograms per person, a population of 1 million would consume only 4000 million tons per year.

Before the war, Demania's native population was only over 8000 million. Including the core territories where its own people were the majority, which were seized after the war, the population was roughly 1 million.

As for the foreign tribes in the newly occupied territories, the Empire does not need to use its reserves to feed them; it can simply allow them to be self-sufficient without plundering them.

So 970 million tons of grain is enough to feed all Demanian citizens and Demanians for three months, enough to survive a winter or spring famine, with each person receiving 100 kilograms.

The black soil plains of Kievan Rus' truly deserve their reputation as a great granary. This is even with a slight reduction in production this year due to the war, and a small portion of the grain had already been plundered and transported away by the Tsarist rulers.

If there were no disasters or famines, theoretically, the Kievan Rus' Plain could definitely export 1200 to 1400 million tons of grain annually.

When faced with this grain, Duke Rupprecht's first thought was to take out a large portion of it and try to exchange it for something else to enhance the army's combat effectiveness.

This idea is actually quite normal. In the past, whenever a battle was won, the captured military supplies, unless directly usable, would be sold for gold to buy other, more scarce items. The gold could then be used to order submachine guns or tanks.

But this time, Lelouch had a different opinion, because the amount of grain was too large.

Lelouch felt that if it were allowed to flow out immediately, it might affect Demania's wartime economic structure and cause the agricultural sector to be increasingly neglected.

In the Earth dimension, a year into the war, in the winter of 1916, a famine also broke out in Demania, known as the "Winter of Turnips".

The so-called "turnip" is commonly known as "water radish" in the East. In short, it is a tuberous plant that resembles a long, white radish. In the winter of 1916, Demania suffered from severe food shortages. Not only was there not enough wheat, but there were also not enough potatoes. Most of the poor had to eat turnips to survive the winter, and a considerable number of people starved to death.

One of the main reasons Emperor William was later assassinated was the loss of popular support caused by the Turnip Winter. With people starving to death, who would be willing to risk their lives for the emperor?

Lelouch certainly didn't care about the future of the emperor, but he knew that the people were innocent.

Rather than exposing these grains now and allowing the military to become even more unscrupulous in reducing fertilizer production and increasing explosives production, disregarding people's livelihoods.

It would be better to withhold the grain for now and ensure that agricultural production in Demania in 1916 proceeds according to historical patterns. If there is still not enough food by winter, then this hidden grain reserve can be gradually released to provide emergency relief.

Moreover, a plausible explanation could be found for the origin of this grain—saying that the Kievan Rus' Plain suffered a significant reduction in production in 1915 due to the war, and that the Tsar had plundered the harvest. However, in 1916, thanks to the efficient management of the Dmanian Prisoners of War and Occupied Territories Affairs Department throughout the year, production efficiency was greatly improved, resulting in a bumper autumn harvest.

If that day ever comes, won't the people of Demania be incredibly grateful to the generals and officials who are in charge of the affairs of the occupied eastern territories?

Of course, some of these principles cannot be stated openly immediately, especially those prophecies that would expose the time traveler's identity.

Lelouch could only go through it in his mind first, and then select the parts he could talk about to analyze with Duke Rupprecht.

……

"That's the situation, so I insist that the vast majority of this grain must be hidden first. Only when we control this grain ourselves can we provide an extra layer of insurance for saving the empire."

After Lelouch finished explaining all his analysis, he made this definitive conclusion.

Duke Rupprecht, despite being somewhat skeptical of Lelouch's previous accurate predictions, was willing to take the gamble.

"Alright, I admit that what you said is indeed a possibility, and we have to guard against it. So, I'll do as you say and hide the vast majority of the grain obtained by Kievan Rus'—how much do you think is appropriate to hide and how much to report?"

This number couldn't be taken lightly, so Lelouch did some calculations and finally gave the Duke some advice:
The total was 970 million tons, of which 270 million tons were reported, and 700 million tons were concealed and stored for an extra year without being recorded.

Of the 270 million tons, it was said to be the seizure of the stock in the Lusha warehouse. The rest was either taken by the Tsar or burned by the chaotic soldiers.

而这270万吨上报之后，还可以提报100万吨，用于德第6集团军、第10集团军和奥第3集团军、第5集团军后续两年的军粮。

These four army groups have a total of about 1.2 million people. Assuming each person receives 400 kilograms of grain per year, that's about 500,000 tons of military rations per year, and 1 million tons in two years.

In addition, this battle captured 100 million Russa prisoners of war, and there were 20 prisoners of war from the Gallipoli campaign from both the British and Italian sides, totaling about 120 million people. These people would theoretically consume 100 million tons of food over the next two years.

But considering that prisoners of war don't have to eat as much as soldiers, even if they still have to do heavy physical labor, build infrastructure and factories, they'll still get 70% less than soldiers, so let's say 700,000 tons.

In addition, the subsequent battlefields in the Caucasus and even the Middle East will require some food supplies for the Ottoman army of about 200,000 men or other friendly forces. This part may not need to be calculated over two years, because the fighting in the Caucasus can definitely be completed by the end of 1916, and if it spreads to the Middle East, it should also be completed within the year. The total of these two parts is 200,000 tons of food supplies.

A total of 190 million tons were left behind. If 270 million tons were reported as seized, and 80 tons were transported back to China as a token gesture, the emperor should be satisfied.

After all, the empire was originally supposed to provide military rations for the army on the eastern front. Now, with this arrangement, all the troops on the southern flank of the eastern front will be able to bring their own rations. More than a million people will not need to be supported by the empire for the next two years. What a great thing!

After finalizing the distribution plan for the captured grain and the industrial reconstruction, the Duke now only had one last troublesome matter left, which required Lelouch's personal assistance in considering.

This matter pertains to military affairs, and is also within Lelouch's duties as chief of staff, so the Duke directly consulted him:
"After von Bock reached Kursk and Voronezh a few days ago, he could hardly advance north or east. On the one hand, the local resistance was too fierce, and civilians were sabotaging the railway everywhere. On the other hand, the weather was cold, and the tank diesel engines were not working well."

According to your previous plan, once the weather turns cold and the northward advance becomes difficult, you should withdraw your troops and launch a major offensive with armored vehicles and tanks along the eastern coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, capturing Rostov and pushing your controlled territory to the Don-Severonnets line. This would prepare for the subsequent Caucasus campaign later this year.

However, in the past few days, the General Staff has sent another inquiry, hoping that we will take advantage of the great victory in the Battle of Kiev, cooperate with Marshal Hindenburg to pursue the victory, advance from the north and south, and encircle a large area near Minsk, covering the vast area from Warsaw to Minsk.

After all, Hindenburg and Rodendorff had been calling for the siege of Warsaw for half a year, only the Reich hadn't provided them with resources before. Now that both flanks had achieved great victories, it was understandable that they wanted a breakthrough in the center to fill the gaps. If the fighting went well, they might even be able to annihilate an entire Russa Front, namely the Western Front, potentially bringing the total number of enemy casualties to 100 to 150 million.

His Majesty the Emperor is now somewhat impulsive, spurred by the resounding victories at Kiev and Gallipoli, and seems unable to control himself. Do you think we should support this plan? If we persist in opposing it without a suitable reason, we might anger His Majesty. Our previous great achievements might also be overshadowed, making the world think we're arrogant and complacent.

Lelouch thought for a moment and still insisted on fighting eastward on the southern front, first capturing Rostov to prepare for and pave the way for the Caucasus. However, he also knew that the Duke couldn't directly refuse the Emperor, so he planned to help him find some reasons:

"Your Highness, if I may be so bold, I believe that attacking Warsaw now would be a terrible strategic move, because we have no reason to rush into taking Warsaw. Even if we were to eventually take it, we should wait another three or four months if we consider both the economic and political implications."

Duke: "Oh? Why do we have to wait?"

Lelouch: "I have heard that the people of East Poland are now suffering greatly, especially after the Kievan Rus' region was besieged last November. Grain from the south could not be transported to the north, and the vast urban areas north of Rus' have entered a severe winter with shortages of food and coal."

Before the war, the coal mines around Warsaw accounted for only about 4% of the total coal production of Lusa. However, considering that 87% of Lusa's coal came from Donbas at that time, and now that 87% is gone, Warsaw's 4% is a very high percentage of the 13%, almost 30%.

Eastern Poland and western Belarus are relatively fertile agricultural plains, though they still contain many swamps. However, compared to the extremely harsh and cold northern regions of Russo, they remain valuable grain-producing areas.

After the Empire controlled the Kievan Rus' region, then the entire Belgorod region, and the main fertile grain-producing areas of Kursk and Voronezh, and then Rostov, only a handful of grain-producing areas remained in Russo-Japanese War.
The largest grain-producing area is the Volga-Don River basin centered on Tsaritsyn, followed by eastern Poland and western Belarus, then the warmer North Caucasus region, and some agricultural and reclaimed areas in Kazakhstan, plus a few reclaimed areas in the southern Ural Mountains.

Aside from these five areas, the remaining land of Lusa, though vast, is mostly cold and uncultivable, or remains grassland and forest that has never been cleared. This year, the absolute food shortage in northern Lusa is at least ten million tons, which is enough to feed more than 2000 million people for the entire year.

In this context, the core population of the Russa people is concentrated in the Don-Volga region, and even in the North Caucasus and Kazakhstan, while the population of East Poland and West Belarus is predominantly Polish. Do you think, assuming over ten million people don't starve to death, the Russa people would prioritize exploiting their own people or the Poles?
For nearly a century, in an attempt to incite Polish people to oppose Demania, Tsar Russa hypocritically granted Russa Poles a far greater degree of autonomy than German Poles. They even allowed a Russa Pole to obtain Demandian citizenship through a sham marriage, and then go to Demania to form factions and cause trouble.

Now, shouldn't they pay the price for all this? If we take Poland directly, the Poles will hate the Empire, and it will be difficult to govern them in the future. They will feel that the days when they could please both sides were better. But if the Russa people use the cruelest methods to confiscate all their surplus food, ensuring the survival of the Russa people themselves, even at the cost of starving millions of Poles...

In the future, with the support of the Empire's propaganda tools, it will be enough to make the Poles hate the Russo people to death. When the Empire takes over that land again, the intensity of the resistance will be much lower.

Moreover, as I mentioned before, the future administration of the Kievan Rus' region should also follow the principle of "ruling along the Dnieper River," with direct control over the west and the establishment of an autonomous puppet state in the east. To ensure long-term stability in the west, it is necessary to create an atmosphere of deep-seated hatred among the Poles towards the Russo people, leaving them with no choice but to wholeheartedly serve the empire.

But if we attack now, we will face several problems: First, if the Poles are still alive before the summer grain harvest in 1916, we will need to provide them with food, which will put a lot of pressure on our food supply. If we don't have enough to eat by the end of the year, our own people will starve to death.

If we don't provide food aid, the hatred will fall on us. Since that's the case, and the local grain supply is only decreasing until the summer harvest in May, why should we get involved in this mess? The ideal scenario is to let the Russo people exploit the Poles for another three or four months, letting them suffer a bit.

We'll move in around April or May when the summer grain harvest is almost complete, or even after the harvest is over. Because Lusha's grain collection system isn't efficient enough; it's impossible for the winter wheat to be stored or even transported immediately after the harvest in May, and it's unlikely to be collected by June.

After hearing this analysis, the Duke also felt a chill run down his spine.

This guy can talk about the starvation of millions of people with such composure; he's truly a ruthless genius of our time.

But the Duke obviously couldn't use that as a reason to refuse the Emperor; that would be too undignified.

"Then... what's the reason? Is there a plausible reason you can give?"

Lelouch thought for a moment: "There are reasons that can be stated. Your Highness can first apply to His Majesty, indicating that the oil fields in the Caucasus are also very important to the Empire. In order to ensure that the oil fields are obtained as soon as possible, we hope that His Majesty will allow the 6th Army to remain in the eastward direction and attack Rostov first."

After all, constantly turning around troops is a waste of time, and there's no need for such back-and-forth. Our Barya Army also supports the attack on Warsaw, but we hope that only the 10th Army will participate. At the same time, to show our sincerity, we can also send a batch of tanks to Marshal Hindenburg's 8th Army—dozens to hundreds would be fine.

"By then, we'll have tanks on both the north and south flanks. Even if we don't have enough soldiers, our breakthrough capability should be sufficient. If we still can't take it, then it's Hindenburg and Rodendorff's incompetence in command, not our fault."

Duke: "Do you think that with the strength of two main army groups, and hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles on each side, and more than 500 armored vehicles in the whole army, it is still possible that we will not be able to take Warsaw for the time being?"

Lelouch: "Actually, last year Lusa always placed their strongest general, Brusilov, in the Western Front. The other generals in the Northwest and Southwest Fronts weren't very good. Lusa misjudged that we were going to launch a pincer attack on the central route, so they made this arrangement. In the end, their elite main force only skirmished with us along the lines for half a year and didn't experience any major battles."

Hindenburg will be facing Brusilov this time, and if he underestimates his opponent from the start, progress will likely be slow. Furthermore, our diesel tanks currently have another problem: they all use untreated No. 0 diesel fuel, which may not be able to operate in extremely cold weather.

It's almost mid-January now, and the latter half of January and the first half of February are the coldest times of the year, even colder than December. If Hindenburg insists on taking Warsaw in January or February, or at least cutting between Warsaw and Minsk, he'll have to postpone his operation if his tanks encounter the extreme cold halfway through their advance.

"Once the weather warms up, we can delay for two more months, and avoid the obligation of feeding the Poles with our own food after capturing Warsaw for two months. This will also make those who haven't starved hate Russa even more, leaving them with no other choice."

(End of this chapter)