God's imitator

Chapter 447 Number of Correct Guesses

The Hanged Man is inherently associated with high risk and high reward.

Initially, many players, for the sake of caution, would set a limit on the number of Wealth Vouchers they could carry.

Some people brought 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, some brought 500,000 to 600,000 yuan, and some brought 1 million to 2 million yuan.

However, after two short games, many players had a new understanding of the game rules.

Because the number of game matches is limited, while the total amount of wealth vouchers that can be exchanged is unlimited, inflation will inevitably occur later on.

The sooner you reach the maximum limit for wealth coupons, the sooner you can accumulate wealth.

Of course, the premise is that you have to make a positive return.

Under the current new rule, either the 'Thief' takes all or the 'Sage' takes all, and 'Wheel of Fortune' became one of the first players in the game to max out the leverage.

The biggest question is which side has a higher probability of getting everything.

……

The Hanged Man was quickly making calculations.

There are 22 boxes in total. According to the rules of "Number Bomb", there are actually two different strategies.

"The first method is more aggressive. You directly guess the middle number each time. For example, you directly guess the number 11 the first time, and then guess 6 or 16 the second time depending on the change in the range."

"In this way, even in the worst-case scenario, the range can be reduced to the minimum in about four attempts."

"The second method is more conservative, which is to guess from both sides towards the middle. For example, the first guess is 22, the second is 21, and the third is 20..."

"If we guess like this, theoretically, in the most extreme case, it would take 22 tries to guess correctly."

"Of course, there is also a very small chance that I might guess it directly on one occasion."

"Using these two different strategies depending on the situation should control the number of times you guess correctly. For example, you can use a relatively aggressive strategy to narrow down the range at the beginning. If you don't guess correctly the third time, then you should use a conservative strategy for the fourth, fifth, and sixth times, guessing close to the current range."

“只要在4、5、6次没有猜中的话，后续的7、8次已经不剩什么数字了，几乎是必定猜中的。

"Besides, with so many chances, you might just happen to get lucky on one of them. After all, there are only 22 numbers in total, so the probability isn't low..."

Time is running out, and faced with a staggering 1100 million in wealth vouchers, it's hard for 'The Hanged Man' to simply give up so easily.

After all, according to the game's matchmaking mechanism, there shouldn't be duplicate matches in the first 3 hours. Once you miss this opportunity to win 1100 million wealth vouchers, it's very likely you won't get another chance.

Moreover, even if you lose, you only lose the expected gains and will not incur actual debt, which will greatly reduce your psychological burden.

"I've decided, we'll play by your rules."

↑Wheel of Fortune nodded: "Okay, but before that, I hope we can turn off the sound in the room so that the audience outside can't hear it."

"Because these viewers may study the strategies you use, optimize and upgrade them, which will reduce my chances of winning if I use this set of rules in subsequent games."

"You wouldn't want your wins or losses to benefit someone else, would you?"

Turning off the sounds in the room requires the unanimous consent of both the 'Thief' and the 'Sage', and it is not mandatory.

In other words, the website will not be shut down unless one party agrees.

The Hanged Man considered for a moment and nodded: "Okay, I agree to shut it down."

Clearly, regardless of whether he wins or loses, the strategy that "The Hanged Man" adopts next will become a reference for other players, which is not what he wants to happen.

If he wins, he certainly doesn't want other players to copy his winning strategy; if he loses, he doesn't want other players to learn from his mistakes. After all, the number of players in the same community is limited, and they are most likely not among the spectators watching the game at this moment.

The audience can no longer hear any sounds from the room.

↑Wheel of Fortune raised its hand in a gesture: "Then please begin guessing."

The Hanged Man had already decided on his strategy and pointed to box number 12: "I'll choose the same number as myself, number 12, the Hanged Man."

↑ Wheel of Fortune: "Special numbers are smaller than it."

"Number 6 'Lover'"

"The special number is larger than it."

Having guessed this, '↓The Hanged Man' paused, falling into thought again.

He has now guessed twice, using an aggressive strategy to quickly narrow down the possibilities; the current range is 6 to 12 (excluding 12).

这其中一共有7、8、9、10、11这五个不同的数字。

But now, the third chance is very important.

If we continue with the previous strategy and keep guessing the middle number 9, then if we don't guess it correctly, we will inevitably lose.

因为那样的话，范围会被缩减为『7、8』或者『10、11』，而第4、5、6次猜中都算失败。

We must now adopt a prudent strategy to slowly reduce the numbers and avoid the 4th, 5th, and 6th times as much as possible.

If you can't avoid it, you lose; if you can avoid it, you win.

But then, the Hanged Man realized a new problem.

This is his third guess. If he guesses the special number correctly, he wins. But if he guesses wrong, he has to avoid the special number for the next three tries.

If you start to "skim the edge" from this point, for example, guessing 7 or 11, then if you don't guess correctly, there are 4 numbers left. You need to avoid them on the 4th, 5th, and 6th tries, which means you have to save the special number for the 7th try.

It seems that probability is no longer on his side.

"Where exactly did things go wrong?"

"Should I have adopted a more conservative strategy earlier? For example, instead of guessing 12 the second time, should I have guessed one-third of the way up or down, like 3 or 9?"

"In that case, there would be more room to avoid the numbers 4, 5, and 6 times, but if we don't know which number it is, it seems easy to make a mistake, right?"
"After all, the range of numbers covered in three consecutive instances (4, 5, or 6) is too large."

"Or should I have adopted a more conservative strategy earlier, such as not guessing 12 directly on the first try, but guessing a number that is relatively close to the edge? For example, guessing 21 or 19 directly."

"In that case, the range of numbers left for the 4th, 5th, and 6th avoidances will be larger."

"But the problem is that if the range is too large, even if you avoid it on the 4th, 5th, and 6th times, you will still lose if you can't find the special number accurately on the 7th and 8th times."

"This rule is much more difficult than I imagined... The other side must have planned this in advance to ensure the highest probability of guessing the special number on the 4th, 5th, and 6th tries, which is why they formulated this rule..."

Time is running out.

Clearly, the limited time available was insufficient to devise a comprehensive strategy. The Hanged Man only had time to come up with a rather crude one: to quickly narrow down the possibilities by guessing the middle number in the first two attempts, and to use a more conservative approach to slowly narrow down the possibilities in the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth attempts, while trying to hit the target on the seventh and eighth attempts.

However, after actually implementing it, it turned out that this strategy was not very good.

With things having come to this, he could only place his last hope on luck.

(End of this chapter)