God's imitator

Chapter 429 The Last Way to Play

Yang Yuting continued to explain:

"As long as everyone agrees that 'it doesn't matter which one you choose,' there is a high probability that they will let their guard down."

"It's like when drawing lots. If the rules are absolutely fair, and the host and other players have no idea which lot is the better one, then everyone will stop thinking about these intricacies and will follow their instincts more."

"Options closer to oneself are convenient, and they also provide a subconscious sense of closeness and security."

"If you don't think too much, you're more likely to choose this option."

"So I put '10' on my right hand, and Dai Yifan is more likely to choose it."

"And once he's chosen, he'll definitely change his mind."

"Although in principle it doesn't matter which one you choose, different players have different risk preferences and tolerance levels."

"Lu Xinyi's risk appetite and tolerance are far higher than those of ordinary players."

"Therefore, ordinary players will experience tremendous psychological pressure when playing this game with her."

"I can't help but worry about the possibility that Lu Xinyi will earn 90 yuan and I will be burdened with 90 yuan in debt and will surely die."

"Therefore, in the face of such huge risks, 'switching notes' becomes a prudent strategy that can effectively reduce losses."

"If you don't switch, you might end up with a maximum debt of 90 yuan. If you switch, you'll only end up with a maximum debt of 9 yuan, and you might even gain 90 yuan."

“In the previous question, Zheng Jie used a similar method to calculate the expected value, and everyone quickly realized that there was a problem.”

"But if the environment or the opponent changes slightly, most players will still subconsciously use this kind of thinking to consider the problem."

Zheng Jie frowned: "But even if we know this, we still can't consider specific strategies, right?"

Yang Yuting shook her head: "No, if you can think this through, then when you draw '10,' you should immediately make the decision: don't exchange it."

"Because of this issue, you need to consider it from Lu Xinyi's perspective."

"First of all, Lu Xinyi does give the impression of being a player with a high risk appetite, but can she really bear the risk of '90 yuan in debt' with such a high risk appetite?"
"Obviously, she herself doesn't have that much visa time, and even if she did, would she gamble her life in such a simple way in front of a 'player who prefers to make safe decisions'?"
"Because 'players who prefer a more conservative approach' are more likely to choose to switch, as we have already analyzed."

"Lu Xinyi is indeed not afraid to take risks, but only if there are returns far exceeding the risks. But in this game, risks and returns are roughly equal, and if you lose the bet, you will most likely die."

"Lu Xinyi is just a risk-seeking player, but not a brainless gambler. She probably values ​​her life more than you do."

"So, the number '100 million' is just you scaring yourself; it's almost impossible for it to happen."

"Secondly, no matter what number you draw, you should consider the possibility that 'Lu Xinyi deliberately let you draw it.'"

"By taking all these factors into consideration, you may be able to figure out the other party's intentions: she deliberately gave you 10 to create the illusion that 'there may be 100 million,' and tricked you into changing the note."

"If it's a master like Lu Xinyi, there might be subtle hints or performances in terms of actions, words, or expressions throughout the process, all to ensure the plan is implemented more smoothly."

"Therefore, your best option is to withstand the psychological pressure of 'potentially losing 90' and insist on not changing."

"Then you win, you can net 9 minutes of visa time."

Everyone was seriously considering the scenario, seemingly imagining a real victory over Lu Xinyi. Of course, no strategy is 100% successful, and even the so-called top players can have setbacks.

However, the biggest difference between them and weaker players is that they calculate the option with the highest probability of winning based on the game rules and the opponent's situation, make plans around this option, and finally use various details and misleading tactics to get the opponent to cooperate with their tricks, thereby establishing a greater chance of winning.

It has to be said that Yang Yuting's simulation really resembles the decisions that a "player like Lu Xinyi" would make.

Yang Yuting's analysis is not a nested approach of "I predicted your prediction," but rather a comprehensive analysis of these players' thought processes, predicting their strategies, and countering them.

If a player like Zheng Jie were to actually encounter Lu Xinyi, and were unable to see through Lu Xinyi's thought process and tricks, there would be a high probability that he would fall for her scam.

Conversely, if one can see through Lu Xinyi's way of thinking, then players like Zheng Jie can also take the initiative to pretend, show weakness, cooperate with the other party's deception, and then suddenly do something unexpected at the end to win the game.

Yang Yuting added: "Of course, if you aspire to be a player like Lu Xinyi, then you can also try to use this strategy to deceive others when you are the 'defender'."

"However, the most difficult step in this process is to convince the other party that you are a 'Lu Xinyi-type player'."

"If a regular player's bluff fails, it can have a serious backlash, so this is something to be aware of."

"Alright, let's move on to the last way of playing."

This time, Yang Yuting didn't make the paper slips herself; instead, she took out two sheets of paper.

"Now, I will select two players to compete against each other."

"You two make your own slips of paper and write numbers on them."

The specific rules are as follows:

“防守方都要制作5个不同的纸条，这五个纸条中的任何一个，都满足『另外的4个纸条中至少有一个是它的10倍或者1/10』。

“考虑到是练习，我们规则再简单一些，避免出现9000和9万这样的数字，又或者999和9990这样的数字，也就是只能出现1、10、100、1万、10万这样的整数。

"After you've written it down, you'll each take turns being the defender and the attacker, and play a game against each other."

"Because the number of slips of paper has increased, the attacking side can draw two slips in total."

"After each use, you can choose whether to change it."

"If you want to change it, you have to return the previous slip of paper and draw another one, and you can't choose another slip of paper after you return it; if you don't want to change it, you can keep it yourself."

"After the game ends, the total difference in profit for both sides will still be calculated."

"For example, if a player's net gain is 9000 when playing as the defender and -3000 when playing as the attacker, then the final net gain is 6000, and the player will ultimately win."

"However, due to the issue of 'net profit,' in order to prevent both parties from writing numbers like '10 million' or even '1 billion,' we have limited the highest number on the slip of paper to 10, and only one slip of paper can have this number written on it."

"These are the rules. Anyone want to give it a try?"
"This time, we'll just select two players to give a demonstration. If anyone is interested and wants to try more possibilities, they can play privately afterwards."

Soon, Zheng Jie and Dai Yifan raised their hands and each took a blank sheet of paper as an example.

(End of this chapter)