God's imitator

Chapter 220 The Curse of Knowledge

Meanwhile, on the side of "Rabbit" Han Mengying and "Sheep", the "wise players" also changed their cards for this round, returned to the hall from the lounge, and began their discussion.

The topic is still dominated by "Rabbit" Han Mengying, "Sheep", "Hummingbird" Luo Wei and "Spotted Dog".

In the previous round, they guessed '45' and had a chip advantage, which was enough to ensure they wouldn't be eliminated.

But the final result was '68', which means that they did not actually grasp the true rules of the 'guess the number' game.

"Spotted Dog" tapped his oxygen mask lightly, lost in thought: "Strange, this number is far too high. How can it be 68? If it's a multi-layered game, doesn't that mean most of the players in this game lobby are idiots? They can't even figure out the second layer of the game?"

Clearly, even among skilled players, there are differences in skill levels.

Even after seeing the results, the Dalmatian still didn't realize what the problem was.

After all, the way this game selects "wise men" is by playing cards, which inevitably involves some luck.

"Sheep" and "Rabbit" Han Mengying are clearly the two smarter members of this group of intelligent players.

Sheep had realized the answer. She sighed and said, "I understand. This isn't a multi-logic game at all. It's about the remaining quantity of a certain item before each round ends."

"Rabbit" Han Mengying nodded: "Yes, it's the remaining number of 'Fool' cards'."

"We didn't even think of this in the last round of the game. This is the 'curse of knowledge'."

The other "wise" players also suddenly realized what was going on.

At the same time, he was a little speechless.

Looking back now, the game was called "Fool's Game," and "guessing the number" didn't actually have that many tricks up its sleeve. 100 simply refers to the number of "Fool's Cards" in the game.

Currently, there are 10 players with the "Sage's Deck" and 30 players with the "Fool's Deck" in the game.

Each person in the former group has one "Fool's Card," while each person in the latter group has three "Fool's Cards," totaling 100 "Fool's Cards."

Even elementary school students can easily calculate it.

The rules state that this number may decrease as players play.

The real meaning of this is that the number of "Fool's Cards" will be consumed during player battles, so the guess should be the number remaining after they are consumed.

Even if a player knows they are guessing the number of the "Fool's Card," they cannot be sure whether they are guessing the "remaining number" or the "number that has been used."
These two numbers are opposite.

The hint in the rules clearly states that the question is to guess the 'remaining number'.

The reason these "wise players" mistakenly believe it to be a "multi-logic game" is actually the "curse of knowledge."

Because "multi-logic game theory" is a very basic concept in game theory, and because it is so classic, the "guess the number from 0 to 100" format is simply common sense for these players.

This will naturally lead to misconceptions.

The number 100, in particular, is more likely to cause misunderstandings.

If it's a number like 112 with both whole and broken numbers, these intelligent players might realize that it's not a "multi-logic game," but rather that it's related to a specific value within the game.

If a wise player truly treats it as a "multi-logic game" and considers many layers, and fills in a very low number, then they may be eliminated very early.

Perhaps one of the five eliminated in the first round is such a player.

On the contrary, the fool players are more likely to guess this possibility, since they may not even know what "multi-logic game theory" is, and therefore won't fall into the "curse of knowledge." "Spotted Dog" thought for a moment: "But even if we considered this, the numbers from the last round were still too high, weren't they?"

"Do players who play Fools not like to use Fool cards in matches?"
"If they continue with this strategy, we'll probably have to guess around 60 to 70 next time."

"Rabbit" Han Mengying shook her head: "Wrong, completely wrong."

"If we still rely entirely on guessing in the next round, then we're doomed to lose."

"Because the number of 'Fool' cards can be controlled, and judging from the results of the last round of the game, someone has already done so."

"Spotted Dog" looked at the players in the lobby with some surprise. These players were not deliberately sticking together, but were still wandering around the lobby at random, only gathering together at certain times.

Originally, "Spotted Dog" thought these April Fools players were still a disorganized bunch, but now it seems they have already formed some small groups.

"Spotted Dog" said, "Then let's hurry up and organize some Fool players and collect the Fool cards, shall we?"

"Sheep" glanced at the crowd in the hall: "It's too late. While we were organizing the 'wise players' group, some players were also organizing the 'foolish players' group."

"Once a small group is formed, it becomes difficult to poach people from it."

"Moreover, just as 'wise players' naturally get along well with each other, 'foolish players' will also naturally get along well with each other."

"We can only negotiate with the 'leaders' of these small groups now."

At this point, "Sheep" sighed: "We were a step too late."

"No, I should say they're too fast."

Although these small groups may disperse and deliberately disguise themselves, they still need to gather together to discuss strategies, so it's not difficult for observant players to see this.

But even if we realize it now, we're already a step too late, and that step is crucial.

If the "wise players" recognize the unique value of the "fools" as soon as they enter the second phase, and use their "wise identity," chip advantage, or even directly use "contract tickets" to win over the fools, they can control at least ten fools.

In other words, it is possible to control thirty Fool cards at a very low cost.

But if you miss this window of opportunity, the "Fool Player" will be snatched up by others, and once a small group is formed, it will be difficult to poach people from there.

Negotiations can only be conducted in groups.

The first round of the "Guess the Number" game not only filters out players, but also filters out different small groups.

"Rabbit" Han Mengying looked at "Sheep": "How many people do you think are hoarding Fool's Cards? Who's leading the charge?"

After a moment of silence, "Sheep" pointed out two possible players: "Deer" and "Owl".

"They must have each gathered about ten Fool players, which also means they have at least 60 Fool cards."

"We must find a way to dismantle or bribe the clique these two have built, otherwise we will have no chance of winning in the games to come."

The Dalmatian paused for a moment: "Absolutely no chance of winning?"

Han Mengying, nicknamed "Rabbit," nodded: "Yes."

(End of this chapter)