The Three Kingdoms: Hindsight is 20/20, and the Three Revivals of the Han Dynasty

Chapter 289 Cao Cao went to great lengths to prevent Liu Bei from taking advantage of the situation (1st update)
Cao Cao's political maneuvering was never bound by convention.

The massacre of 70,000 surrendered soldiers in the Battle of Guandu had instilled in Yuan's troops the fear that "surrender means certain death," which was the fundamental reason why Yuan's army preferred to flee rather than surrender in the Battle of Liyang.

If Cao Cao wanted to break the will of the Ye City defenders to fight to the death—their belief that "surrendering means death, and resistance also means death, so it's better to resist and die a tragic death"—and also prevent the Ye City defenders from collapsing and joining Liu Bei, he had to devise another ingenious plan.

The essence of a siege is a war of attrition, with provisions being the lifeblood of the defending army. Cao Cao's order to "wait for the wheat to ripen before harvesting" was ostensibly a resupply arrangement for his own forces, but in reality, it was a way to intimidate the soldiers and civilians of Ye City.
For the defending troops, this meant that the food supplies outside the city would be controlled by Cao Cao's army, and once the city's reserves were exhausted, there would be no way out.

For the common people, this was a matter of whether they could survive the famine. In dire situations, the defending troops might even forcibly seize food from the people, thereby exacerbating the conflict between the military and the people and making it impossible for the people in the city to unite in defending the city.

By anticipating the cutting off of external supplies, Cao Cao concretized the "cost of resistance" as "hunger and death," forcing the defending army to re-evaluate between "defending to the death" and "surrendering."

At the same time, Cao Cao promised to "persuade them to surrender within a month," aiming to give the divisions within the city time to ferment and intensify the conflict between the pro-war and pro-surrender factions.

The "agreement to fight again next year" may seem like a compromise with the defending troops, but it is actually a strategic retreat to advance, intended to warn them: "You only have one chance to surrender. If you wait until next year to fight, it will be a fight to the death!"

More importantly, releasing the wounded soldiers back to the city could transform Cao Cao's promise to "treat those who surrender well" from empty words into a tangible fact, gradually eroding the defenders' psychological defenses of "rather die than surrender."

In essence, Cao Cao's strategy was a psychological war that combined both kindness and coercion.

With "breaking down psychological defenses" as its core, the strategy combines "material pressure" with "leaving room for maneuver," precisely targeting the core fears and concerns of the soldiers and civilians of Ye City: it not only dispelled the fear of "surrender means certain death" brought about by the massacre of surrendered soldiers, but also forced them to re-evaluate the pros and cons through the pressure of survival, ultimately achieving the goal of "subduing the enemy without fighting."

If the defenders of Ye City refuse to surrender, then after Cao Cao feigns a withdrawal, Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang will inevitably fight each other for their own interests, just like Li Jue and Guo Si did in Chang'an in the past.

The goal was to ensure that the defenders of Ye City either died in the infighting between Yuan Tan and Yuan Shang, or in the attack by Cao Cao, leaving Liu Bei no chance to take advantage of the situation. This also demonstrated Cao Cao's ruthlessness: if I can't have it, no one else can either!

However, not everyone understood Cao Cao's deeper meaning.

When they learned that Cao Cao had not only adopted Guo Jia's strategy but also wanted the entire army to wait for the wheat to ripen and be harvested, the camp erupted in uproar, with the generals and officers discussing the matter animatedly:
"With the victory at Liyang, we should seize the opportunity to march straight for Yecheng! Why have we made our army wait for over a month just to harvest wheat?"

"If it is only a matter of harvesting wheat, conscripting laborers would suffice; why burden the entire army? If Yuan Tan and Yuan Xi attack and seize our grain while we are harvesting wheat, how should we respond?"

"The granaries of Ye City are overflowing with grain, far exceeding the value of the crops in the countryside! To abandon this gold mine for farming now would be of no benefit to our army! Ye City is already fortified and heavily fortified, making it difficult to breach. If we allow the two Yuan brothers to take this opportunity to regroup and collude with Liu Bei, the morale within the city will surely soar, making it much harder to take the city!"

"."

Cao Cao's gaze slowly swept over the faces in the tent, some indignant, some confused, and some anxious.

Faced with the discussions of generals such as Cao Hong, Xiahou Yuan, Xiahou Dun, and Yue Jin, Cao Cao's face remained unchanged. Instead, a hint of coldness, barely perceptible, shone in his deep eyes, gradually silencing the crowd's murmurs.

"The military order has been given, and there is no room for further discussion!"

Although the voice was not loud, it carried an undeniable authority that made the officers and soldiers dare not disobey in the slightest.

Immediately, Cao Cao turned his gaze to the right and ordered, "Zhang He! Gao Lan!" Zhang He and Gao Lan's hearts tightened, and they quickly stepped forward, cupping their hands in greeting, and replied, "Your subordinates are here!"

Cao Cao's gaze fell upon them, and his tone left no room for doubt: "You two are responsible for selecting the wounded soldiers, applying medicine and bandaging their wounds, distributing them food and drink, conveying my message, and then letting them return to Ye City. You two are also responsible for persuading them to surrender at the city walls."

The two generals immediately straightened up and replied in unison, "Your humble servants obey! We will certainly not fail in your trust, sir!"

Regardless of Cao Cao's true intentions, assigning Zhang He and Gao Lan to carry out this task appeared to be benevolent and righteous on the surface.

Zhang He and Gao Lan were both surrendered generals. Since neither of them died, the garrison of Ye City also had a chance to survive if they surrendered. In addition, the wounded soldiers were treated with great care, with medicine applied to their wounds and food and drink distributed to them. They all returned to Ye City with the joy of surviving a disaster.

As the wounded soldiers returned, rumors spread throughout Ye City that "Cao Cao is benevolent, sparing surrendered soldiers from death and providing food to the wounded." This caused unrest among the soldiers in the city, with their thoughts becoming divided.

"Zhang He and Gao Lan were also surrendered generals, yet Cao Cao not only spared their lives but also entrusted them with important responsibilities. If we surrender, we might be able to survive too, right?"

"I saw Wang Ergou from the next camp return with my own eyes. Although he was lame, he looked quite well. I heard that Cao Cao's camp gave him meat soup!"

"Hmph, so what? Who knows if it's all an act? Think of those 70,000 men at Guandu; they were all murdered by that traitor Cao!"

"You say 70,000, so that's 70,000? Nobody actually saw Cao Cao massacre 70,000 surrendered soldiers! What if it's a fabrication? Maybe they were just soldiers who died on the battlefield long ago? Zhang He is still alive and well, isn't he?"

"You're thinking too simply! Whether Cao Cao killed surrendered soldiers or not doesn't depend on whether he was benevolent or cruel, the key is food! If Cao Cao had enough food, even if 70,000 people were clamoring for wine and meat, Cao Cao wouldn't kill them; if Cao Cao didn't have enough food, even if we shamelessly called Cao Cao our adoptive father, we would still die. By the same token, if the General and the General of Chariots and Cavalry ran out of food, we would have to eat mulberries and rob the people of their food."

"The wheat outside the city is about to fall into Cao Cao's hands. How much longer can we hold out? I heard that some people in the southern part of the city started boiling tree bark yesterday. If we really run out of food, and Cao Cao harvests the wheat outside the city, then we're doomed."

Inside the General's Mansion.

Enraged, Yuan Shang slammed his fist on the table: "That scoundrel Cao Cao dares to undermine the morale of our army! How hateful! Quickly behead those wounded soldiers as a warning to others!"

Seeing that Yuan Shang had lost his temper and issued an irrational military order, Shen Pei hurriedly advised, "General, you mustn't! Killing the wounded soldiers will only make the defenders in the city feel insecure. Now that the rumors have spread, it's better to guide them than to suppress them. You should first send orders to all camps to denounce Cao Cao's hypocrisy and expose his past massacre of surrendered soldiers, so that they will not harbor any illusions. Then, reward the army, distribute wine and food, and let the soldiers eat their fill at every meal to show that the city has ample provisions, so that the soldiers in all camps can defend the city with peace of mind."

Yuan Shang's anger had not subsided, and doubts arose again: "I just gave Yuan Tan 50,000 shi of grain. Now that Liyang has been lost and the grain has been taken by Cao Cao, the grain in the city is not enough for three months. If the soldiers are allowed to have a full meal every day, it can only last for a month at most."

With 50,000 shi of grain lost and over 10,000 troops to support Yuan Tan, Yuan Shang was also in a difficult situation.

Shen Pei said confidently, "The wheat outside the city will soon be ripe. As long as we conserve our strength and keep the morale of our troops stable within this month, we can go out of the city to confront Cao Cao and harvest wheat to supply our army. Cao Cao has come from afar and has little food. Once his food is exhausted, he will retreat."

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(End of this chapter)