My Portable Ming Dynasty

Chapter 165 The Allure of Statistics

Su Ze said, "Do you remember what I mentioned about anthrax in the newspaper?"

Wan Jing and Fu Shun nodded repeatedly. This was an article from when the Yuefu Xinbao newspaper was first published. In the article, Su Ze explained that burning coal in poorly ventilated conditions produces carbon toxicity, which is the cause of carbon toxicity when using coal for heating in winter.

After this article was published, in the winter of the second year of the Longqing reign, the number of people who died from carbon monoxide poisoning in the capital was much lower.

Su Ze said:

“All things in this world, if used correctly, will benefit; if used incorrectly, will harm. This charcoal poison is very harmful to people, but I, Su, have discovered that charcoal poison can burn, and it burns much more intensely than coal!”

Upon hearing that what had just been lit was charcoal poison, Wan Jing and Fu Shun both took two steps back.

Su Ze smiled and said:

"You two need not be afraid. As I said before, carbon monoxide is produced by the incomplete burning of coal. As long as the furnace is kept burning, there will be no carbon monoxide leakage."

"Of course, once the new ironworks are built, we must also strengthen inspections to prevent carbon monoxide leaks."

"This carbon monoxide is not only toxic, but it is also highly explosive if leaked."

However, after Su Ze explained the properties of the anthrax, the two men from the Ministry of Works were no longer afraid.

Fear stems from the unknown. Su Ze has already explained the generation and dangers of carbon monoxide poisoning, so carbon monoxide poisoning has become a fire worker trapped in the iron furnace.

Wasn't gunpowder equally dangerous? Wasn't it also used militarily by the Ming Dynasty?

Of course, Su Ze was not a metallurgical professional. He only knew how to increase the furnace temperature from a few popular science lectures in his previous life, but he knew nothing about the specific subsequent procedures.

But for inspiring technological progress, only this one crucial step is needed.

Su Ze looked at Wan Jing and said:

"Brother Wan, this iron furnace needs to burn for a whole day to completely melt the iron. The rest is up to you."

Wan Jing nodded quickly. Coming from a family of iron smelters, he naturally knew that the most important step in the entire iron smelting process was smelting.

Each school of smelting has its own methods for subsequent steps, but the better the molten iron, the better the quality of the steel produced. This is a consensus among various smelting schools.

Wan Jing saw the raging fire burning in the iron furnace through the peephole and felt the intense heat emanating from it. He knew that Su Ze's iron furnace was powerful and could definitely produce good iron!

Wan Jing lowered his head. Su Ze said that he was not from a family of iron smelters, but he was able to start by studying "carbon poison" and eventually develop an iron smelting method that was even more powerful than the secret formulas of iron smelters.

Is this what real learning is?
Is the practical learning advocated by Grand Secretary Gao really that miraculous?

Last time it was the *Yingzao Fashi* (Building Standards), this time it's iron smelting. Wan Jing also heard that Su Ze had made significant contributions to the calendar system, and he sincerely said to Su Ze:

"Su Hanlin, may I ask where I should begin if I wish to study practical knowledge?"

Su Ze looked at Wan Jing, not expecting an unexpected surprise from Ye Tie today.

Upon hearing Wan Jing's question, Su Ze replied:
"I wonder what Brother Wan intends to research?"

"Is there still a difference in practical learning?"

Su Ze smiled and said:

"Of course there are differences. Good and evil in people's hearts, laws and regulations, the value of goods, poetry and songs—these are part of practical learning. The waxing and waning of the sun and moon, the principles of heaven and earth, arithmetic, and the investigation of things to acquire knowledge—these are another part. I wonder which part Brother Wan wants to learn?"

Wan Jing suddenly realized why he hadn't been able to grasp the essence of practical learning; it turned out that practical learning was so complex.

Wan Jing quickly said:

I'm still more interested in the latter.

Su Ze said:

"I understand, Brother Wan wants to thoroughly investigate the principles of things."

Wan Jing nodded repeatedly and said:

"Yeah."

Su Ze said:

"This is not an easy skill to learn."

Wan Jing thought this was a closely guarded secret among Su Ze's practical skills, and his newly ignited hope was about to be extinguished again, but unexpectedly Su Ze said:
"Brother Wan, where do you think the principles of things come from?"

"The principles of things are born from all things, and what is studied is the relationship between things. The mysteries of nature are wondrous, and many things will be different if you add or subtract even a little bit. A slight error can lead to a huge difference."

"Therefore, the most important thing in seeking the principles of all things is to measure them quantitatively."

"Quantitative?"

Su Ze pointed to the iron furnace and said:

"Yes, we're talking about carbon monoxide poisoning. When does carbon monoxide poisoning occur? Coal combustion produces carbon monoxide poisoning, but how much air is needed to produce the most carbon monoxide poisoning?"

"If we want to increase the firepower of this furnace, we need to study how to produce more carbon monoxide and how to make the carbon monoxide burn to generate more heat."

"Iron smelters all know that the higher the furnace temperature, the better, but what exactly is that furnace temperature? How can we determine it?"

Wan Jing said:

“In my hometown of Wuhu, we would put a hundred pieces of gold into molten iron and see if the gold could melt to determine the quality of the metal.”

Su Ze glanced at Wan Jing. This must be the wisdom of the working people. They can think of using the different melting points of different metals to determine the temperature of the iron furnace.

Su Ze shook his head and said:

"That's still not enough."

"As Su said, a small mistake can lead to a huge difference. If you want to achieve perfection, you need to understand these things, rather than relying solely on secret methods passed down orally."

Seeing that Wan Jing was still puzzled, Su Ze said again:

"For example, regarding iron smelting, Brother Wan could study whether it's better to smelt the molten iron for one day, half a day, or two days?"

"Is it better to give more gas or less gas to poison carbon monoxide?"

“By maintaining constancy, one can measure change, determine quantity, and understand nature, thus gaining a comprehensive understanding of the principles of all things.”

Wan Jing's eyes lit up even more. Su Ze's words had opened a door for him. He no longer knew how to approach "practical learning," but now he had a direction to study.

After saying this, Su Ze left the Ministry of Works' ironworks.

Another one fooled!
In fact, early physical chemistry didn't have many complex principles. The transition from empiricism to science was essentially about "quantitative" approaches.

The controlled variable method was the most commonly used and practical research method in the early stages of science.

First, summarize the patterns, then think about the reasons behind the patterns, propose various hypotheses, and then conduct experiments to verify the hypotheses.

The development of modern science has followed such a process.

This is also why Su Ze wanted to establish the Society for Research in Architecture to promote mathematics.

Statistics is the mother of all sciences.

After Su Ze left, Wan Jing suddenly said to Fu Shun:
"I'm going to find Lei Sikong; I'm going to join the Society for Research in Chinese Architecture."

Fu Shun looked at Wan Jing with a puzzled expression and said:

"Brother Wan, do you really need to join the Society for Research in Chinese Architecture at your current level?"

Wan Jing was a renowned expert in the Ministry of Works, so Lei Li didn't even include him on the Society for Research in Chinese Architecture's roster. Wan Jing shook his head and said:

"Participating in the Society for Research in Chinese Architecture is not for the purpose of construction, but for the purpose of studying the principles of things."

"As Su Hanlin just said, to understand the principles of all things, one must first master mathematics!"
-
Although breakthroughs have been made in iron smelting, simply having the right materials is not enough to cast good cannons.

So Su Ze went to the Hanlin Academy again.

Huang Ji began his busy work as soon as the emperor issued an edict to establish the Bureau of Astronomy.

The Four Seas Test sounds like a grand project, but in reality, it's just an overstatement.

In fact, there is a lot of preliminary work to be done before the calendar is revised.

Huang Ji first had the Imperial Astronomical Bureau dig out the materials on the revision of astronomy and calendar during the Yuan Dynasty and the early Qing Dynasty, so as to understand the mathematical principles of the previous people in repairing the calendar.

In addition to teaching the Imperial Observatory and training them in astronomy and mathematics, Huang Ji also trained them in the use of new astronomical instruments such as telescopes.

In addition, the Crown Prince often summons him to check the accounts, and Huang Ji has lost even more weight these days.

Upon hearing that Su Ze was coming to visit, Huang Ji quickly put down the documents in his hand and went to the entrance of the Imperial Observatory to greet Su Ze.

"Brother Yunxiang (Huang Ji's courtesy name), you must take a good rest. You need to formulate a new calendar for the court. How can you do it without good health? You can't do everything yourself, can you?"

Since the last time, Huang Ji and Su Ze have been addressing each other by their courtesy names. Huang Ji said helplessly:
"Brother Zilin, I don't have your talent, I can only be a laborer."

However, Su Ze did not continue to persuade him. Without such a spirit of tireless research, Huang Ji would not have been able to produce these things. Throughout history, scientists have always been somewhat obsessive.

"Brother Zilin, what brings you to the Imperial Observatory today?"

Since the Bureau of Astronomy does not have a Grand Astrologer, Huang Ji, the Junior Astrologer, is the head of the Bureau. Su Ze also saw Zhou Xiang of the Imperial Observatory, who is now under Huang Ji's command.

Su Ze said:

"Actually, I came here today because I need Brother Yunxiang's help."

Huang Ji quickly said:

"Brother Zilin, you're too kind. Please feel free to ask if there's anything you need."

Su Ze explained what he wanted to ask, and Huang Ji looked at him with suspicion and asked:

"Casting cannons? I know absolutely nothing about casting cannons, how can I help Brother Zilin?"

Su Ze smiled and said:

“Brother Yunxiang, you may not know this, but casting cannons is closely related to mathematics. Nowadays, the people in the country who are proficient in mathematics are all in your Bureau of Astronomy, which is why I came here to ask for your help.”

What is the connection between cannon casting and mathematics?

"Of course it's very relevant."

Su Ze asked, "Brother Yun Xiang, do you think the longer or shorter the cannon barrel is, the better?"

This question stunned Huang Ji. He thought for a moment and then said:
"I guess the longer the better?"

Su Ze asked again:
"Is it better for the diameter of the cannon muzzle to be as large as possible, or as small as possible?"

Huang Ji said:

"Of course, the bigger the better. I know that the breech-loading cannon is more powerful than the arquebus."

Su Ze shook his head and said:

"To manufacture a good cannon is not a matter of wishful thinking; it requires mathematics."

"The power of artillery is related to the ratio of caliber to barrel length. I need the Imperial Observatory to help me find this ratio."

"In addition, the ratio of the gun barrel thickness to the caliber is also related to whether the gun will explode. These are all things that need to be calculated."

What Su Ze is talking about is called "module" in military engineering. The module of an artillery piece is the ratio of the dimensions of each part of the gun barrel to the caliber of the gun.

One of the data points is the ratio of the inner diameter to the barrel length, also known as the caliber ratio.

In addition, the ratio of barrel thickness to inner diameter is crucial in determining how to minimize the weight of the barrel while reducing the chance of barrel explosion, thus creating the most cost-effective artillery.

It is precisely this modulus that is the reason why Eastern firearms are completely inferior to those of the West.

It's not that the Ming and Qing dynasties couldn't cast cannons; in fact, the cannons cast by Ming and Qing craftsmen, regardless of cost, were made of better materials than those used in Western cannons.

However, the casting of cannons in the East was still in the stage of empiricism, and cannons with strange calibers were often produced.

Take, for example, the so-called Urban Cannon.

The Urban cannon had a barrel ratio of only about 5. This low ratio meant that the energy generated by the burning gunpowder was wasted at the muzzle before it could do any work on the projectile.

Moreover, the ratio of barrel thickness to caliber of the Urban cannon was too low, which caused the cannon's designer to die in a barrel explosion during a test firing.

It wasn't until the late Ming Dynasty, after Sun Yuanhua translated Western books on cannon casting, that the concept of cannon modules was proposed, enabling the Ming Dynasty to manufacture qualified Hongyi cannons on its own.

However, this technology was lost in the Qing Dynasty. The Qing army built larger and larger cannons, but their power did not increase. There was even a joke that the range of the Kangxi cannons was shortened after they were refurbished.

Besides the unclear artillery module, the Ming and Qing dynasties often cast cannons that were flashy but impractical, and there was also the problem of determining the amount of gunpowder used.

The Ming army also believed in a gunpowder doubling method, stuffing the cannons with gunpowder in multiple proportions.

For example, Xiong Tingbi once tested the Luzon bronze cannon using the double-loading gunpowder method. The cannon eventually exploded, but Xiong Tingbi used this to prove that Western cannons were unreliable and not as good as the anti-Japanese cannon he built.

However, at the same time, Europe had already put forward the theory that more gunpowder is not necessarily better. Adding too much gunpowder to the same type of cannon would only increase its power by a very limited amount, as most of the gunpowder energy would be wasted and would increase the risk of barrel explosion.

The amount of gunpowder loaded, the modulus of the cannon, and the weight of the shell are all mathematically related.

It can be said that the earliest scientific research did not lie in physical and mathematical formulas, but in scientific quantitative and qualitative research.

Statistics is the mother of modern science.

Of course, in addition to these, there are also cannon calculation parameters, also called gun rulers, which are quick calculation tables for calculating the impact point of cannons. This is a direct manifestation of mathematics in military affairs.

Because the West concealed these parameters, the Ming and Qing dynasties still had to spend large sums of money to hire Western artillery instructors.

For example, in the timeline before Su Ze's time travel, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom hired Western artillery instructors, whose cannons were more accurate than those of the Qing army.

Later, Zeng Guofan also spent a lot of money to hire Western instructors and form a foreign artillery army, which finally suppressed the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom's artillery.

After Su Ze finished speaking, Huang Ji felt as if a new world had opened up for him. So this is how useful mathematics is!
Huang Ji said with some helplessness, "Brother Zilin, you see, I can't get away from here."

Su Ze said, "This is no small matter that requires your personal involvement. I've only come to ask Brother Yun Xiang for someone who is proficient in mathematics."

Huang Ji thought for a moment and said:
"Brother Zilin, what do you think of Prime Minister Zhou?"

"Zhou Xiang?"

"Although this person opposed compiling a calendar, he was the best at calculation in the Imperial Observatory and had also revised the 'Comprehensive Guide to the Great Unification Calendar'."

Su Ze's eyes lit up. The "Datong Calendar Standard" was an established law, and the cannon ruler was also an established law.

Huang Ji summoned Zhou Xiang. Although Zhou Xiang looked unwilling, he had no choice but to reluctantly agree since the entire Imperial Observatory was now under Huang Ji's control.

Just as Su Ze was busy promoting iron smelting and cannon casting, a memorial was sent to the Office of Transmission.

The next day, Shen Yiguan rushed into the history office and said, "Brother Zilin! The censor has impeached Li Wenquan, the heir of the Marquis of Wuqing, saying that he stuffed ambergris into the belly of a whale and fabricated auspicious omens to present ambergris!"

(End of this chapter)