Restart life

Chapter 268, page 0265: [Chen Guiliang's New Identity: Scientific Research Companion]

Professor Lin did not sit on the back of the bicycle, but had Chen Guiliang push the bicycle and walk with him.

At that time, Peking University was experiencing a serious problem of illegal parking due to a lack of designated parking spaces.

Students frequently complain that teachers' private cars have taken up the open space in front of the teaching building, leaving students nowhere to park their bicycles.

Actually, parking anything there is against the rules. That includes bicycles.

Professor Lin, carrying his briefcase, asked as he walked, "Which professor's book did you read to ask those questions? Professor Wu, Professor Zhang, or... Professor Li?"

Chen Guiliang said, "I've attended some lectures by Professor Li and Professor Zhang, but the content of their lectures is not the reason I asked this question. It's inevitable that infrastructure and real estate will get out of control, and the central government will have a hard time regulating them unless it takes a complete overhaul and goes back to the past."

Professor Lin said, "You are very pessimistic about the future."

“I don’t know much about economics, but I do understand some aspects of human nature,” Chen Guiliang said. “My junior high school teachers don’t get paid and have to make ends meet by forcing students to attend extra classes during the summer holidays. But all the students come from rural areas, and some would rather drop out of school than pay for the extra classes. This is due to local financial difficulties caused by tax sharing; the county simply can’t afford it. Now that they can sell land to make money, Professor Lin, what do you think the county leaders will do?”

Professor Lin said, "It's going to be a huge success."

Chen Guiliang said, "When most local governments across the country rely on land sales to supplement their finances, then governments, banks, real estate developers, and upstream and downstream enterprises will all be tied to this high-speed train."

Professor Lin asked, "Do you think there will be a real estate bubble?"

Chen Guiliang shook his head: "The bubble is just the result. It's easy to go from frugality to extravagance, but difficult to go from extravagance to frugality. If local governments rely on selling land to make their finances abundant, then they will definitely engage in large-scale infrastructure construction. They will have political achievements, good reputation, and opportunities for rent-seeking."

"In this situation, how will the central government regulate it? On what grounds will it regulate it? When this happens all over the country, the debt of a single county could take decades to repay. How much debt would that amount to nationwide?"

"As housing prices are driven higher and higher, people realize that prices only go up and never down, which will gradually evolve into panic buying. The higher the prices go, the more people buy, and the more they buy, the higher the prices go. By then, if you don't buy a house in the city, young people in rural areas won't even be eligible to get married."

"For those so-called middle-class individuals, spending millions on a house subconsciously makes them feel wealthy. Even if they're burdened with numerous loans and debts, they still perceive themselves as rich. The wealthy are driven by high consumption, and an era of advance consumption is on the horizon. This is especially true for the next generation of young people, who find it difficult to save money..."

"This development model of real estate not only affects the economy, but also all aspects of society, and will change the entire social mindset..."

"When China's economy reaches a bottleneck, opportunities to get ahead become fewer and fewer, and social classes become more and more rigid, what will happen? Most young people will find that no matter how hard they work, they will all end up the same. They simply can't afford to buy a house anyway."

"At that time, the willingness to marry will decrease, the birth rate will decline, negative population growth will occur, and aging will accelerate... The imbalance of China's population structure will bring a series of more serious social and economic problems."

After listening attentively to Chen Guiliang's presentation, Professor Lin said solemnly, "Your perspective on real estate from the angle of social impact is very novel and inspiring. However, your predictions are all very pessimistic and extreme."

Chen Guiliang said, "The more extreme housing prices become, the more it will force the whole society to go to extremes. Ordinary people have no choice at all. They only know that housing prices are getting higher and higher, and if they don't buy a house quickly, they will continue to rise. When the whole nation is focused on housing prices, when a mother-in-law is choosing a son-in-law, the first thing she will look at is whether he owns a house."

"Another factor is the rising cost of education, which is already beginning to emerge. In the future, raising a child will require enrolling them in all sorts of training classes, so that they won't fall behind from the start. Before they even graduate from elementary school, the education expenses may have already exceeded 100,000 yuan."

"Moreover, with the development of the Internet, entertainment options are becoming more and more diverse. If everyone can access the Internet and the cost of Internet access is still very cheap, young people will become more isolated and closed off, and even find romantic relationships meaningless."

"Combined with the difficulties of buying a house, getting married, and raising children, more and more young people will marry late or not at all in the future, preferring to immerse themselves in the virtual world of the internet. Negative population growth is inevitable, and the early arrival of aging is also inevitable."

Professor Lin carefully considered these remarks and found Chen Guiliang's ideas increasingly interesting.

Because, in addition to leaders and entrepreneurs, most of the people he usually interacts with and communicates with are well-known scholars in the field of economics.

Those scholars who oppose over-reliance on infrastructure and real estate are doing so purely from an economic perspective. For example, they argue that it could lead to diminishing returns on capital, squeezed consumption, wasted resources, debt problems, and corruption, among other things.

As it turned out, Chen Guiliang only talked about social issues.

But social problems inevitably lead to economic problems!

Professor Lin plans to communicate more with sociologists in the future, which is also a direction for economic research.

Professor Lin said, "The current development model can't be stopped. No one's words matter; we can only try to regulate and apply the brakes. When China's industrial scale is large enough, qualitative changes will lead to quantitative changes, and the state will guide industrial upgrading. Only then can we reduce our dependence on real estate."

The entrance to the underground parking lot is just ahead.

Professor Lin stopped and said, "Peking University students who want to be recommended for CCER should take relevant courses in their sophomore year and establish connections with their future advisors. In their junior year, they can strive to become CCER research assistants. You are currently a junior and have enrolled in my course. If you want to be recommended for CCER, you can write a research assistant application." "Thank you for your consideration, Professor Lin, but I really don't have the time," Chen Guiliang said.

CCER's graduate students adopt a dual-mentor system, with one Chinese and one international mentor.

Foreign professors will definitely teach entirely in English, and they'll need to understand the specialized English required for economics. Specialized English is much harder than passing the CET-6 (College English Test Band 6).

Chen Guiliang would be better off investing in two more companies instead of wasting his energy learning professional English for economics.

Professor Lin wasn't in a hurry to go to the garage. He smiled and said, "Do all of you internet people have such peculiar perspectives?"

Chen Guiliang said, "This is not from the perspective of an internet professional, but from a philosophical perspective. Many of my courses require the teacher to be lenient so that I don't fail. But I passed the philosophy courses on my own."

“But you work in the internet industry, so you must have thought deeply about its development, right?” Professor Lin said. “This year, China’s internet industry has entered a period of frenzied investment, which has attracted the attention of many economists. I happen to be following the internet as well, and I’d like to talk to you about it.”

Chen Guiliang asked, "What would Professor Lin like to talk about?"

Professor Lin asked, "What are your thoughts on the future development of the internet?"

Chen Guiliang said, "Now and in the future, there are only two major internet centers in the world: China and the United States. There are no other centers."

Professor Lin chuckled, "If you were to elaborate on this point, it could fill a graduate thesis. Anything else?"

Chen Guiliang said, "The Internet will become increasingly personalized and user-centric. I am looking forward to the era of the Internet of Everything."

"Internet of Everything?" Professor Lin didn't understand.

Chen Guiliang said, "From public utilities to personal furniture, everything is connected to the internet!"

Professor Lin thought about it carefully: "This statement is very science fiction-like."

"For people ten years ago, the internet today seemed like science fiction," Chen Guiliang said.

“That’s true, it’s very sci-fi now,” Professor Lin said, taking out his phone. “Let’s exchange numbers. You can contact me if you have any questions, but try not to do so during working hours. I also hope to ask you for advice on any questions I have about the internet.”

Chen Guiliang replied, "I dare not presume to ask your guidance."

Professor Lin said, “This is not just polite talk; I am genuinely studying the internet. The rise of e-commerce last year has shown me new development ideas. E-commerce may very well restructure the distribution system. I have recently come up with the concept of ‘new infrastructure,’ which places broadband networks on par with transportation and energy as cornerstones of economic development. The construction of internet infrastructure should also be part of the country’s large-scale infrastructure development.”

This gentleman is truly an infrastructure fanatic; everything he researches eventually turns into infrastructure development.

Professor Lin added, “So you really can apply for a CCER research assistant position to help me with my research on the Internet. I have more than one research assistant, so it won’t take up anyone’s spot. You can just have your name listed.”

"What would I need to do if I were to serve as a research assistant?" Chen Guiliang asked.

Professor Lin said, “I will assign you some tasks from time to time. You don’t have to complete them. I mainly think you have a unique perspective on problems, which may give me new inspiration at any time. What you just said about the Internet of Things really inspired me! Your main job is to talk to me from your own perspective when my thinking is unclear.”

Well, this isn't a research assistant, it's more like a research chat companion.

Chen Guiliang had previously joined Professor Wu's research group. He was specifically responsible for being studied and would occasionally send Professor Wu some non-core materials from ByteDance.

After exchanging numbers, Chen Guiliang casually said, "Professor Lin, why don't you register an account on HaiNei.com? Write a couple of articles when you have time, and don't worry about it if you don't. Sometimes, exchanging ideas with netizens can be very inspiring, because everyone has a different perspective."

Professor Lin thought for a moment, then nodded and said, "Then I'll register one."

Speaking of the internet, the China Internet Conference is about to be held this year.

The event is unprecedented in scale, and the head of the Ministry of Information Industry will read aloud a handwritten letter from a leader on site.

This shows that the internet is receiving more attention from higher authorities.

(End of this chapter)