Technology invades the modern world

Chapter 384 It's either at the table or on the menu
So when he said that, Musk's expression immediately froze.

"No, the moon is not China's moon to begin with. What do you mean by saying that the expansion of the lunar base will be limited to the south pole of the moon?"

There are too many problems here.

First of all, such an agreement is unlikely to be put on paper.

Once signed, it would be tantamount to America endorsing China, confirming that China has unlimited rights to develop the moon, only that for the next ten years, China's development would be limited to the lunar surface.

First, America cannot make such a political commitment or provide such a guarantee of credibility. Second, even if we were to acknowledge it, there is no way to achieve global recognition under international law.

Musk thought the other party was crazy.

This may seem advantageous to America, but upon closer examination, it becomes clear that in the long run, the conditions are terrible.

Ten years. Ten years seems like a long time. But what can America actually achieve in ten years? The fact that China has achieved its current control over the lunar surface area is already beyond expectations.

Unless they can occupy more than half of the moon's surface within ten years, which is too difficult.

America couldn't possibly devote all her resources and energy to this.

Furthermore, once China achieves a Mars landing, America's resource projection will also need to shift, moving towards the more realistic goal of Mars.

So this clause is equivalent to giving the entire moon to China ten years later.

Moreover, I'm loosening my grip on semiconductors now. China in 2024 will be completely different from China in 2014, and China in 2034 will be a completely new landscape. What if you come back then and start promoting the idea that the moon is an inseparable part since ancient times, and then force me to return the base to you?
This is a realistic assessment, and from the perspective of international law, it is impossible to sign a similar agreement.

"China can occupy all the valuable places on the moon within a year. Then, once America uses force to land on the moon and destroy our man-made objects, we don't mind waging a modern war in outer space," Lin Ran said coldly. "I think lunar warfare will be a game that only true superpowers can play in this era."

Unmanned warfare on the moon, isn't that cool?
I believe that in this scenario, the first mover still has a certain advantage.

Cold War politicians instinctively react with war, and wars like the lunar war, which don't cost lives, are even more ruthless.

However, Lin Ran's answer still shocked Musk: "Your reaction is a bit too extreme, isn't it? I'm an expert on China and I've met quite a few Chinese entrepreneurs, but I've never seen anyone like you who talks about war so easily."

Moreover, such a statement would make a deal even less likely. What if I do make a deal, but you break the rules and attack me? Are we going to compete with China in terms of massive production capacity to send weapons to the moon? Are we going to develop weapons specifically for the lunar environment?

"I love peace and oppose all forms of war. Just as China has said in the past that the Pacific Ocean is very large, the moon is also very large and can accommodate China and America."

What I want to say is that your last point is completely unreasonable and cannot be used as a bargaining chip.

It's like saying something doesn't exist, and you insist that it's valuable to America, so... "Musk realized something was wrong as he spoke.

Lin Ran smiled, his previous coldness vanishing completely: "That's right, this is the trick that your soon-to-be-re-elected president is best at: creating bargaining chips out of thin air."

In "The Art of Trading," he shared his core trading principles, including the use of your leverage. He said that when there is no obvious advantage, you can create leverage out of thin air through imagination, sales skills, media promotion, relationship networks, or unexpected assets. True leverage is not innate but can be created through strategy, especially when there seems to be no leverage available.

Therefore, this bargaining chip is not created out of thin air; it is based on China's lunar base and existing technology.

You can call it superficial, but it's definitely not a fictitious, non-existent bargaining chip.

Musk recalled a quote from "The Art of the Deal": "Leverage often requires imagination and sales skills."

Clearly, what Lin Ran said was based on imagination, but China does indeed have the ability to turn imagination into reality.

This is the core reason why Lin Ran said this was not a fake betting pool.

This reveals an unprecedentedly cruel fact: America has fallen so far behind in this space race that it can't even see China's taillights anymore.

"Randolph, even if this is a bargaining chip, it's a bargaining chip that can be traded."

But your statement is too vague and cannot be put into writing.

Can we sign it? Who will sign it—Apollo Technology or the Chinese government? Who is the other party? America or the United Nations?
No treaty?

How do we define that? If a lunar base can't expand, then does installing solar panels on the far side of the moon count as expansion? If I fill lunar orbit with satellites and space stations, constantly monitoring the moon and your base, does that count as expansion?
Even if it is a bargaining chip as you say, it is one that cannot be defined or traded.

Unless, of course, the bargaining chip becomes China helping America build a lunar base.

This is more practical.

I believe it can be used as a bargaining chip in trading.

After thinking for a moment, Lin Ran said, "Peary crater at the lunar north pole?"

“Yes,” Musk said. “But the problem is that deregulating semiconductor technology is too risky and it’s difficult to get the White House’s approval, especially from the new president’s core staff.”

Lin Ran shook his head and said, "What we need is not the latest, proven, and mature technology, but the outdated technology from Japan."

We will reach deals with Nikon's lithography machines, Tokyo Electron's semiconductor materials, Sumitomo Chemical's materials, and so on, purchasing them from them.

Since founding XAI, Musk has gained a deep understanding of semiconductors. He is well aware that of the technologies Lin Ran mentioned, only Nikon's lithography machines are outdated and lag behind ASML's technology by a generation, with significant differences in yield and process technology.

However, there is no difference between Tokyo Electron and Sumitomo Chemical; they are currently the most core suppliers in the semiconductor industry chain.

“This deal is huge,” Musk said.

Lin Ran said, "That's why this can be called a big deal."

A deal big enough to put the entire 4V economy on the table.

Musk immediately perked up.

"Put the entire 4V economy on the dinner table?" Musk repeated this question.

Lin Ran nodded: "That's right."

Washington has long been dissatisfied with the fact that all high-end chip production capacity is in 4V.

Whether it's TSMC setting up a factory in Phoenix, Arizona, or in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, or Samsung enduring huge losses to maintain high-end semiconductor production capacity.

More importantly, Rapidus Semiconductor was jointly established by the Japanese government, IBM, and other prominent Japanese companies such as Toyota, NEC, and Tokyo Electron.

All of this demonstrates that Washington cannot tolerate all high-end production capacity being concentrated in 4V.

Washington even hopes that TSMC will move all its production capacity out of 4V, ideally not producing a single wafer there. But America alone can't do that; with China's cooperation, it's different. Together, we can achieve this.”

4V would probably be speechless if he knew this. What have I done to deserve being taken care of by China and America?

"How exactly do we do it?" Musk asked.

Lin Ran said: "Specifically, it means that China and Japan are cooperating. Rapidus will place its production lines in both China and Japan to completely eliminate TSMC in the 2nm era."

Japan could never do this on its own, but with China's help, it definitely can.

We can help Japan, and we can also help Samsung in Korea.

Thanks to six years of independent research and development and self-reliance, China now boasts the world's most advanced engineering team in the semiconductor field. The only things China lacks are equipment and advanced raw materials.

Once advanced production capacity is replaced, TSMC's 4V location, let alone its lunar cryogenic laboratory, will not even be able to achieve a hard landing on the moon.

They will only be completely eliminated in the new era.

During this process, America's financial group was able to repeatedly profit from her stock market gains.

This is something you're good at.

The company released good news about Rapidus and Samsung Electronics' advanced manufacturing processes, and announced that high-end production capacity, similar to that of Apple and Nvidia, will be handed over to Rapidus Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.

We frequently release news of breakthroughs in high-end production capacity.

Every time a technology transfer by Japan makes the news, it presents an opportunity to short its stock market.

TSMC alone accounts for about 40% of the weighted index of the entire Taiwan stock market. When you include its upstream and downstream companies, the influence factor is only greater, not less.

This means that every short-selling move, every piece of negative news, is not only shorting TSMC, but also shorting its stock market itself.

When they intend to use funds to bail out the market, China will, at the appropriate time, impose tariffs on their exported products, or even take reciprocal measures. If they prevent China from exporting cars, we will also prevent their car-related parts from entering China.

Economically, the harvest is completely complete.

That's right. Governance costs are high. How can governance costs be reduced if expectations are completely shattered and the economy is completely destroyed?

TSMC is just a side dish, harvested back and forth. Wall Street harvested the economy that 4V had developed over the past few decades. China reduced its potential future governance costs. China gained semiconductor technology from Japan. Japan and Korea returned to the high-end semiconductor industry. America gained the lunar north pole base.

Everyone wins at mahjong, except for 4V who loses big, and decades of accumulated wealth will be wiped out in one fell swoop.

Even if a direct government goes bankrupt like Greece, that would be considered a good outcome.

This is a business worth hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars.

TSMC, with a market value of trillions of dollars, could very well be taken away by America in one fell swoop under such circumstances.

China's cooperation is needed to ensure that the other side's resistance is weak and ineffective, and can be easily crushed.

The existence of America was necessary; America's existence forced them to open their financial markets and allow foreign investment to enter and exit.

The breakthrough of China's semiconductor technology to the equivalent 4nm is a crucial milestone, as the gap between the equivalent 4nm and 3nm is now negligible.

It was at this point in time that the deal became even slightly possible.

“No,” Musk felt his mind was in turmoil.

This is undoubtedly a big deal.

Just as he had known before he came.

This deal is indeed feasible.

The problem is that this also reflects a huge transformation.

This young man in front of them was actually able to change Yanjing's mind and make Yanjing willing to adopt such a radical and completely different strategy from the past.

Musk then recalled "The Art of the Deal": Isn't this also creating bargaining chips out of thin air? Using the wealth of 4V as bargaining chips, wealth and high-end semiconductor industry have all become China's bargaining chips, used to exchange for Japan's semiconductor technology.

Tom Zhu was right. The other party was indeed not an entrepreneur, but more like Kissinger, a politician who manipulated the region at will, Musk thought.

“I’m sorry, you’re right, this is indeed a big deal, and I can’t make the decision on my own,” Musk said. “I need to communicate fully with the White House.”

Lin Ran said, "Okay, let's put everything else aside. I believe the terms of the transaction are fair."

If we simply talk about semiconductors themselves, we can all gain some time.

China can save time in moving towards advanced manufacturing processes, America can obtain advanced semiconductor production capacity, and even complete control of TSMC is not a dream.

With the lunar cryogenic laboratory, you can also save time on advanced processes.

Everyone can get time.

And frankly, can this really limit China's semiconductor industry from making breakthroughs?
These technologies can only fetch a price at this point; their value will only decrease over time.

This deal is fair to all parties; we each get what we want.

The party that believes the deal is unfair is like food on a menu; they have no right to speak.

Musk was thinking that, based on his understanding of Turbo Cement, reaping the wealth of an entire region would be very much to Turbo Cement's liking.

As for semiconductor technology, he is very likely to agree to use Japan's technology as leverage.

Musk thought to himself, "What kind of monster is this guy? Convincing Washington and convincing Beijing are not easy tasks, but this guy seems to be able to do it."

　This is based on the premise that a visit to the White House by a man named Huang could persuade Nvidia to continue selling H20O to China.

　　Since H20O can continue to be sold, I think there is a possibility that this deal will be completed.

　　Just as the protagonist creates cards out of thin air, America gains enormous benefits out of thin air, without having to pay anything in return.

　　
　
(End of this chapter)